Thin Christmas and New Year markets along with US Holiday trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross meant we haven’t had big moves of late. The pair mostly pivoted around the 0.6250 levels through to Monday when we saw a slide in the kiwi down to 0.6180 mostly based on central bank divergence. Global themes have also started to weigh on the NZD with Gaza conflicts and energy prices not to mention a poor Chinese growth read. Interest rate cuts are now starting to come into conversation more with predictions the RBNZ may have 100 points priced in for 2024.The New Zealand economy is expected to cool further in the first half of 2024. Thursday’s US Retail Sales for December should be decent.
Current level: 0.6169
Support: 0.6170
Resistance: 0.6360
Last week’s range: 0.6194-0.6276