AUD to USD – US Dollar to Australian Dollar
When converting AUD to USD, or United States dollars to Australian dollars (USD to AUD), by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/USD currency conversion rates.
AUD to USD Overview: The Australian dollar has become the barometer for global growth since the year 2000. Its appreciation against the US dollar is closely linked to commodities market conditions as the emerging markets in Asia develop. Central Bank diversification out of USD now means there is less ongoing support for the USD, as the world’s financial power slowly transfers from the United States.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|AUD/USD||.7159 – .7942||.6826 – 1.0161||.6006 – 1.1078|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 1.00% US Federal Reserve (FED): 1.75% to 2.00%
We provide insight into the Australian Dollar and United States Dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been unable to catch a break slumping below the key 0.7000 mark for the first time since November last year going on to post 0.6995 at the weekly close against the US Dollar (USD). US Non-Farm Payroll came in much worse than we were expecting at 210k compared to 553k in November increasing the squeeze on risk currencies on the bad news. This confirms the Federal Reserve won’t pull the anchors on their easing policy any time soon. The Unemployment Rate edged lower- this was good news dipping from 4.6% to 4.2% leaving the question, was the payroll number expectation unrealistic? Of note here is the unemployment at 4.2% remembering the Fed have their unemployment forecast at 3.8% for the end of next year, they are nearly there. Some adjustment to their “taper” view looks to be needed. RBA today at 4.30 NZT – we don’t expect any fireworks. Prices early today bumped back over the 0.70 magic figure to 0.7045; maybe we have seen the last of the fresh lows for now.
Current Level: 0.7043
Last Weeks Range: 0.6995-0.7171
The bear trend of the Australian Dollar lengthened its five week fall against the US Dollar (USD) this week dropping to a fresh low of 0.7065 the early Nov 2020 point. Risk off flow has intensified of late on renewed worry from the new omicron variant. The first confirmed case of the new strain has been detected in California in the past day after a traveller came from SA. Aussie GDP for the last quarter ending September 30 came in at -1.9% compared to expectations of -2.7% with the economy contracting the third biggest quarterly fall since the start of record keeping in 1959. It’s not predicted that Australian growth will fall further when the fourth quarter results publish. For now, it’s unlikely we will see a break past 0.7000 unless equity markets plunge further. We expect a pull back from the current levels as market players digest perhaps a potentially better than first thought outcome with omicron.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7090
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7063- 0.7171
The bear decline for the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued last week against the US Dollar (USD) with the cross posting 0.7115 leading into the weekly close. Big dollar strength of late has been broadly driving price with sentiment also struggling on the news of the new covid variant Omicron. Bouncing off the yearly low at 0.7110 this morning to 0.7130 the AUD briefly peered over the abyss but turned down the opportunity to jump. Looking ahead at the economic week we have a haul of US data publishing including end of week Non-Farm Payroll. Tomorrow’s Australian GDP third quarter is however our focus with predictions of a downturn in economic growth of around 3% which could undermine the Aussie from current levels.
Current Level: 0.7145
Last Weeks Range: 0.7113-0.7272
The Australian Dollar (AUD) four week decline continued against the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.7180 into Friday trading. Big dollar strength has been the theme this week across the board – easily the strongest currency as the Federal Reserve starts to rethink their forward policy. The USD has been extremely BID off the back of the Federal Reserve shifting more towards a hawkish view in the months ahead, if not overly hawkish, definitely less accommodative and certainly less “transitory”. The cross looks to be well supported around 0.7150; we look for the pair to turn back recent setbacks towards the 0.7200 area by the end of the day. We have a full calendar of event risk next week, expect volatility.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7168
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7161- 0.7274
After a positive start to the week by the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.7270 against the US Dollar (USD) the Aussie gave back gains treading to 0.7220 early Tuesday. Greenback strength has been the theme after Jerome Powell was re- elected through to Feb 2026 as Federal Reserve chairman this morning putting to bed pent up market uncertainty and the central banks future woes. This new term will end in February 2022. Thin markets towards the end of the week with the US Thanksgiving Holiday may create volatility. We expect downside moves should be limited to 0.7170- the 100 day moving average and the 13 month low support line.
Current Level: 0.7229
Last Weeks Range: 0.7227-0.7367
The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) is represented on the chart as travelling in a lower high-lower low pattern over the past 3 weeks, the Aussie, not able to really fire a shot this week as it’s barrelled towards 0.7250 trying to break past the 7 week support level. Equity pressures to the downside and a dovish RBA have kept the AUD offered and will do so for a while as long as the RBA retains their loose monetary policy. Having said that, we do expect the RBA to come under inflationary pressures by year end and force them into making a call on rate hikes. We expect the Fed to begin hiking rates from July next year, earlier than the predicted December 2022. Another rise in 2023 and several more in 2024 should see the cash rate clock around 2.2%. Overnight US employment claims were benign and the iron ore price held around 92.50 per ton helping to undermine the AUD. Drops in the pair could continue well into next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7279
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7248- 0.7370
After five weeks of bull moves by the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.7550 against the US Dollar (USD), the Aussie has slipped lower to 0.7275 over the last fortnight. Monday strength saw the AUD start the week well, travelling back to 0.7370, but with the Federal Reserve talking of finishing their easing policy this may undermine the Aussie for a while. Last week’s USA inflation read at 6.2% y/y instead of the 5.8% predicted has rightly given the Fed a scare, the biggest gain in more than 3 decades. The term “transitory” is being reviewed as not all price spikes can be attributed to covid and ongoing supply chain issues. Fed members speak towards the end of the week after US Retail Sales. We expect any topside moves to be limited to 0.7400 this week.
Current Level: 0.7346
Last Weeks Range: 0.7275-0.7431
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has turned in a fairly negative week of moves thus far against the US Dollar (USD) as it reached 0.7290 into Friday trading dropping over 1%. With a combination of poor Aussie jobs numbers and a stronger greenback post Fed calls to be more proactive with Fed policy the AUD suffered. The US CPI rate swelled to 6.2% the highest inflation reading in 31 years since late 1990. Markets had predicted 5.8% but index prices across the board were much higher than expected, leading the way were energy costs and food came as no surprise. The news caused equity markets to reverse recent moves, the Nasdaq leading the way down 1.66% at yesterday’s US market close. The surge in inflation is definitely causing complications within the Federal Reserve to unwind their easing policy imposed recently. Moves lower in the cross we think could be limited heading into the close as profit taking of AUD shorts unwind positions.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7288
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7285- 0.7431
The Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped off recent highs last week against the US Dollar (USD) to close the week around the 0.7380 mark. US Equity Indices continue to climb to new highs Monday pushing up risk sentiment and the cross to 0.7430 into Tuesday sessions. US Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 531k in October compared to the 450k consensus. Employment is still well below what it was prior to the pandemic with the US losing more than 22M jobs at its lowest point, but progress is progress in light of the delta variant emerging in July causing havoc. Looking ahead we have US CPI for October and Aussie jobs numbers Thursday. We see risks to the downside limited to 0.7400 this week.
Current Level: 0.7414
Last Weeks Range: 0.7359-0.7536
The five week bull run by the Australian Dollar (AUD) has ended against the US Dollar (USD) with price retreating to 0.7400 levels this morning from recent 0.7570 highs. The Aussie had its worst day of trading across the board Tuesday after the RBA backtracked on their intentions to raise rates sooner than the predicted 2024. The RBA said they were happy to remain patient with tightening policy as they continue to buy 4B in Govt bonds until next February. Weirdly the US Federal Reserve delivered a similar message saying they were unlikely to lift their cash rate off 0.10% before 2023 but announced they would begin bringing down their bond buying program later this month by trimming monthly purchases by 10B per month. Yesterday’s meeting confirming Fed members still consider the surge in recent inflation is mostly transitory. The Fed said their current tapering plans could be adjusted depending on incoming data. The news was seen as more dovish than analysts were expecting, supporting the view that rate hikes are still a way off. Strong support seen at 0.7350 a key Fibonacci area.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7403
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7382- 0.7534
The Australian Dollar is poised to test topside resistance around 0.7550 against the US Dollar (USD) today when the RBA announces their monetary policy and interest rate announcement. Markets await confirmation that the RBA will start to change its forward guidance- it’s widely predicted that the central bank will change its ultra-accommodative stance and bring forward chances of earlier rate hikes. The Fed is also expected to formally announce an end to their tapering plans from mid this month ending late 2022 with chances of rhetoric to suggest a hike as soon as June next year. Brace yourself for volatility around the release and through into Friday’s all important US Non-Farm Payroll print. If the AUD can brush past 0.7570 it could be all on.
Current Level: 0.7530
Last Weeks Range: 0.7461-0.7555
Strength in the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued with the recent rally sending price moves to a 0.7550 high against the US Dollar (USD) an early July level. Risk sentiment remains upbeat with US Equity indices continuing to post fresh highs and boost “risk” products. Australian CPI for the third quarter came in at 0.8% bang on predictions along with the y/y figure printing slightly lower at 3.0% from 3.1% ending June. The dovish stance held by the RBA must now be questioned to bring forward their policy guidance back from 2023 forecast hikes. The recent pullback in iron ore wobbled the AUD yesterday, that being said we still see demand outstrip sellers Friday with further topside moves predicted heading into the close. Looking ahead we have the Federal Funds rate and statement along with the RBA rate statement and cash rate. Decent moves in the cross are expected.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7532
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7462- 0.7553
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has taken a breather of late against the US Dollar (USD) bouncing around the 0.7480 area over the past few days of trading after a solid few days of momentum from 0.7400 levels. Setbacks should be well supported for now through to this week’s third quarter inflation data. CPI is expected to print at 0.8% or 3.1% y/y and if hotter than we expect could send yields higher and firm up the AUD off current levels. The opposite effect could also eventuate and tug on the AUD back through 0.7400. Later in the week we have the US Treasury Currency Report which is a report which targets unfair FX practices among US trading partners and has the ability to shift currencies. Further equity rises should be factored into any AUD demand.
Current Level: 0.7488
Last Weeks Range: 0.7378-0.7544
The Australian Dollar (AUD) climbed all the way to a fresh high of 0.7540 against the US Dollar (USD) Thursday as risk sentiment remained positive and investors sold the greenback. US Equities traded near to recent highs after the US third quarter earnings season boosted prices. RBA Governor Lowe spoke earlier and sees inflation as transitory, saying “he didn’t think the rise would be sustained unless it led to sustainably higher wage growth.” US jobs ending the week 16 October came in at 290,000 compared to 298,000 forecasts, dampening the mood allowing shifting the pair to 0.7460 Friday morning. The cross has topside momentum as it trades at the bottom of a bull channel. We would need to see a break below 0.7430 to see a trend reversal. Next week’s Australian quarterly CPI is the focus.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7468
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7378- 0.7544
Price has bounced lower off 0.7440 twice in the last couple of days in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross, back at 0.7410 early Tuesday after travelling briefly to 0.7375 Monday. NSW retail will reopen by the end of the week and travel will start by the end of October as the region reached 80% vaccinated. The hope is they can be over 99% fully vaccinated by the end of November. This has certainly boosted market sentiment of late with the Aussie outperforming most of its rivals. The healthy correction from 0.7170 levels should continue with the currency making gains towards 0.7450 the highest daily close since July. With a thin calendar this week for the pair movement could be risk driven through to US jobs numbers Friday.
Current Level: 0.7425
Last Weeks Range: 0.7290-0.7438
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its bull run against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.7420 in early Friday trading. The Aussie stretched out further post the US CPI read pushing the cross to its highest level since September 10th. Underpinned by overnight rises to risk products, commodities and equity indices all jumping higher. US CPI came in at 0.4% slightly more than the predicted 0.3% and raised the year on year level to 5.4% from 5.3% attributed mainly to higher energy prices and food. Forecasts are predicting inflationary rises with gas prices and transportation supply chain woes to worsen. Resistance on chart is 0.7450 the reverse head and shoulder pattern, a break through here and we could see the AUD extend.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7418
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7291- 0.7426
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its bull rally against the US Dollar (USD) Monday rising to 0.7365 from last Wednesday’s 0.7220 before easing back into Tuesday around 0.7340. 106 days of lockdowns in greater Sydney ended at midnight Sunday as NSW now has 70% of its adult population fully vaccinated. The NSW premier says he is committed to avoiding any further lockdowns targeting international travel for the fully vaccinated from the 1st of November. Commodity prices and particularly Iron ore keep the AUD bid as well. Earlier Non-Farm Payroll printed poorly with just 194,000 jobs created in September which may question the Fed’s plan to start tapering their policy come the 3rd of November meeting. Aussie jobs numbers print at the end of the week and could encourage the Aussie higher if the report is favourable.
Current Level: 0.7345
Last Weeks Range: 0.7225-0.7339
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed its rivals this week recovering from 0.7180 to reach 0.7300 agst the US Dollar (USD) Friday. Boosted by a resurgence in risk appetite as equity markets soared over 1.0% in overnight markets. The RBA retained their cash rate at 0.10% Tuesday at the central bank meeting and will continue to buy 4B of government securities per week. Governor Lowe said covid had interrupted the recovery of the local economy and will affect the September quarter GDP results in a big way. Conditions for a rate hike therefore won’t be met until 2024 with uncertainty of the pace and timing economically. Although the read was dovish the AUD has pushed higher undermined by risk sentiment. Non-Farm Payroll releases tonight with predictions of an improvement to August’s 235,000 people who entered the workforce. We see reasonable resistance on the chart at 0.7320 indicating a pullback in the next few sessions.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7316
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7226- 0.7323
A slump in the US Dollar (USD) fortunes has seen the Australian Dollar (AUD) continue its dash north to 0.7300 levels Tuesday. Recovering iron Ore prices and a deteriorating greenback backed the AUD to plug higher off last week’s 0.7180. US Treasury yields have ticked higher overnight along with further concerns over the Fed’s taper planning. President Biden is expected to speak with China negotiators soon regarding trade policy and the “Trump” instigated trade tariffs as Biden wants to keep China buying plenty of US goods. This week’s economic docket has us tuned into this afternoon’s RBA policy statement and rate release. No surprises from the current policy settings are predicted. Friday’s Non Farm Payroll release shouldn’t offer anything out of the ordinary with Powell recently committing to start tapering in November. It would take a very poor jobs report to change this directive. With the curve pushing above the 200 day moving average we may see further topside momentum eventuate this week for the Aussie.
Current Level: 0.7284
Last Weeks Range: 0.7169-0.7310
Risk conditions and an active US Dollar (USD) put the currency in the driver’s seat against the Australian Dollar (AUD) leading to the cross dropping to 0.7180 over the week. Australian Retail Sales figures for August were down -1.7% but not as much as the predicted -2.5% we were expecting. Clearly spending over the month reflected the impacts of covid lockdowns in NSW and Victoria. However this wasn’t enough to hold back US bids as the pair chalked up a fresh 5 week low. Impacts from Fed talk over the week with many Fed members speaking impacted the mood which now sees a taper on the radar and a potential rate hike in 2022. As long as the Fed are forced to take a less accommodative road forward we could see further demand risk in the greenback and ultimately downside pressure to equity markets and the Aussie. RBA next week
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7227
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7170- 0.7310
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the best performer to open the week, trading to 0.7290 against the US Dollar (USD) as equity indices clock further rises. Even though the greenback has been well supported of late with the 10-year treasury yield climbing to 1.4% overnight the highest level since July this year the AUD outperformed. Iron Ore has rebounded off the recent low of 102.80 to 109.00 this morning aiding in the spike of the Aussie. As NSW and Victoria plan to reopen their economies with vaccination rates approaching their target of 80% double vac’d we should see a rebound in the December quarter and the RBA further trim its bond buying in February next year. We think the pair may edge towards 0.7300 levels over the week.
Current Level: 0.7284
Last Weeks Range: 0.7223-0.7316
Early week media of Evergrande took risk sentiment sagging, the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropping to 0.7220 against the US Dollar (USD). Retesting this area 3 times before Thursday’s Fed Monetary Policy announcement. The FOMC decided to go the direction of other central banks and start tapering plans after releasing its hawkish statement on Thursday. Speculation is this could be as soon as the next central bank meeting in November. The Fed’s rate setting committee said they could start to taper its 120B in monthly assets, Powell saying it would be a gradual process that would conclude around the middle of next year. Half of the Fed officials said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates by the end of 2022. The elephant in the room- is the rising inflation fears, once supply constraints are sorted this could lead to inflation souring again. Delta variant cases continue to cloud the outlook however with challenges of slower growth. Movement in the cross unwound earlier losses trading back to 0.7300 levels around midday Friday. Next week’s array of Fed speakers will take most of the attention along with final second quarter GDP. With most of the bad news in Australia already prices in we may see further buoyancy in the pair develop.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7309
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7220- 0.7315
Small losses in the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday took price to 0.7220 against the US Dollar (USD) as last week’s poor risk sentiment spilled over, however the Aussie has recovered to 0.7250 early Tuesday. Last week’s Federal Balance sheet confirmed rises of 91.5B to a record almost incompressible total of 8.45T. Markets have become accustomed to these style rises of late being the norm. This week’s main focus is the Federal Reserve policy statement. With recent drops in US indices, and fear of debt contagion they would be indeed showing their hand by hinted at a tightening of policy. Which is why they will remain cautious and non-committal we believe. With the AUD well behind the game line we expect further declines over the week.
Current Level: 0.7255
Last Weeks Range: 0.7220-0.7369
The Australian Dollar (AUD) slid to 0.7300 the second week running against the US Dollar (USD) from the fortnight high of 0.7475. Fallout from RBA’s Lowe followed by US CPI took prices lower. US CPI continues to increase with reports showing a rise of 0.3% m/m slightly under predictions of 0.4% possibly signalling a halt to the recent surge in inflation. Year on year is still very high at 5.3% slightly below the 13 year high of 5.4% reported in July. Australian Jobs data was mixed with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5% from 4.6% surprising markets after predictions of a much higher read at 5.0% never happened. The news should have spiked the AUD but jobs numbers eliminated any topside moves revealing a massive 146k contraction in employment with the participation rate likely to blame. Looking ahead we have the FOMC next week and RBA minutes. The bear trend may continue with very little holding up the AUD currently.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7295
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7273- 0.7375
The Australian Dollar (AUD) eased back from 0.7460 levels to close the week around 0.7340 against the US Dollar (USD) after a dovish RBA and risk appetite influenced AUD buying. Healthy US Producer Price Index Friday pushed up the greenback after figures showed a rise of 0.7% all the while producers struggle with supply shortages, bottlenecks and transport issues. Tomorrow is the US CPI with markets anxious to see if any taper talk comes out of it. Figures in August are predicted to rise 0.4% m/m with y/y around the 5.4% mark. Aussie employment data Friday could put further pressure on the AUD if unemployment rises to 5.0% as expected.
Current Level: 0.7361
Last Weeks Range: 0.7336-0.7433
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has earned the title of the worst performing currency of the major group this week falling to 0.7350 against the US Dollar (USD). Metals continued to plunge creating fresh lows including iron ore at its lowest price since December 2020 of $132 per ton. Chinese restrictions on steel production since July have clearly affected the AUD performance. Meanwhile, the RBA maintained its cash rate target at 0.10% Tuesday and stuck with its original plan to start pulling back their bond buying from 5B per week to 4B until at least February 2022. This comes as the economy loses considerable momentum during a time the country struggles with the delta outbreak. Unemployment is expected to rise over the coming months as Lowe reaffirmed they would not be hiking interest rates until at least 2024. Early Friday trading saw more weakness in the USD with the 10y T Bond trading under 1.3% assisting to push price to 0.7370. Over the coming days we expect to see further setbacks to 0.7300 levels in the cross.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7374
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7344- 0.7467
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been very well bid of late reaching 0.7475 Friday broadly off the back of weaker US data with NFP printing down on predictions. The Aussie rally post the Jackson Hole event and Fed speak stretching to a 7 week high. The favorable risk backdrop also boosting the AUD with equities making runs to the topside. NFP came in at 235k compared to the much less forecasted 720k dropping the US Dollar index to 91.95 or -0.3%. Today’s RBA policy announcement is split between analysts as to whether the bank will announce a reduction to their asset buying program or if they will hold back a while longer. Back in July they announced it was coming, if they decide to cut bond buying this will be at 1B per week from the current 5B. We still think a reversal move back to the 0.7340 support area is not out of the question this week.
Current Level: 0.7438
Last Weeks Range: 0.7304-0.7476
A 3 cent move over the last two weeks by the Australian Dollar (AUD) sees it clock in at 0.7400 Friday against the US Dollar (USD) after a week of greenback weakness and strong risk buying. Australia’s economy officially bounced back from the covid recession rising 0.7% (GDP) in the June quarter. Obviously, this doesn’t reflect the full picture of the current economic climate as it’s tortured by ongoing covid led lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne. US ADP job numbers disappointed again in August with an additional 374k entering the workforce compared with expectations of 640k predicted which softened the greenback. Tonight’s US Non-Farm Payroll publication will show recent impacts to the economy around the effect the delta variant is having on the labour market with the usual bout of volatility expected. Topside moves beyond 0.7430 resistance look limited for now.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7400
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7284- 0.7409
A massive week of gains for the Australian Dollar (AUD) has see it rocket back to 0.7320 almost fully reversing all of the previous week’s losses from 0.7100 against the US Dollar (USD). As further rises in US equities tormented the big dollar’s run, the PBOC and Federal Reserve stretched their dovish policies. Fed chairman Powell is formally in no hurry to start tapering back his asset buying program amid rising inflation. He said interest rates would remain as they were for some time. Of note Iron Ore prices recovered off recent lows climbing back 5.0% to 155.00 per tonne helping to drive the Aussie higher. With a slew of economic data to release in the US over the week together with month end volatility we could see decent shifts this week in the pair. Focus will be on (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll and the US unemployment rate. Before then we have Australian second quarter GDP releasing tomorrow which could print horrifying at -2.0%. Topside moves could be limited as long AUD positions are unwound for month end.
Current Level: 0.7293
Last Weeks Range: 0.7200-0.7317
On the back of broad-based US Dollar (USD) poor demand and “risk on” selling of USD, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been well supported over the week. Rebounding off 0.7100 levels early it has been one way traffic through to 0.7280 reaching a key Fibonacci retracement level supported by rises in equities and overall global sentiment post the recently approved FDA Pfizer covid vaccine. Unemployment claims overnight were benign coming in at 353k filing for unemployment against 345k predicted, but it was geopolitical tensions in Afghanistan which has upset market sentiment early this morning after 11 US Marines and 1 Navy medic were killed in a bombing. The pair easing back to 0.7230. All eyes are now on the Jackson Hole event and Powell speaking tomorrow morning as punters look for further clues on how the Fed will start their QE ‘taper”.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7243
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7114- 0.7279
With not a bunch of good news coming out of Australia of late the Australian Dollar (AUD) closed the week around the 0.7130 level marking the biggest weekly decline against the US Dollar (USD) since September 2020. With the Fed mentioning a possible “taper” of their massive QE program before year end punters Monday saw this as good news, investors sold the greenback en masse well into Tuesday NY sessions with the cross back at 0.7215. Equity markets also closed the day up over 1% adding weight. Downside bias is still preferred, also of consideration is the tanking iron ore values as they continue to plummet this morning to 139.00 per ton. Looking ahead is the Jackson Hole Symposium, a “virtual” event based on covid. This should give us further clues on how fed chairman Powell may taper” back asset buying. Buyers of USD should consider at prices around 0.7200.
Current Level: 0.7204
Last Weeks Range: 0.7106-0.7341
After four weeks of treading water for the Australian Dollar (AUD) trading between the 0.7300 – 0.7420 zones against the US Dollar (USD) price has broken through key support reaching 0.7140 earlier today. The Australian Unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.9% yesterday which is great news but, statistics showed very few people were actively seeking work in July during covid lockdown restrictions currently in place throwing out the result. The unemployment figure is expected to rise dramatically in August and September as lockdowns have extended across Melbourne with cases still very bad in NSW. Fed Minutes highlighted a possible “taper” of their QE program by the end of 2021 strengthened the greenback. The Fed find themselves in a precarious place with questions being asked as to how they will lower inflation if it’s not transitory. They need to consider downgrades to global growth, coronavirus fallouts and geopolitical risks ahead. The Aussie is in thin air at the moment with bias to the downside. Big support now sits at 0.6850 the 50% retracement of the move from 0.5750 and 0.7900
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7149
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7142- 07371
The Australian Dollar (AUD) eased off recent highs around 0.7380 Monday to fall to 0.7320 as markets bought the US Dollar (USD) safe haven currency. Political tensions in Afghanistan occupy the headlines with US troops said to be withdrawing from the region after 20 years effectively handing back control to the Taliban as they overpower government. US economic data in the form of Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will be the test ahead of Fed Powell speaking tomorrow. Thursday’s Australian employment data should be interesting with predictions of the Unemployment Rate ticking higher to 5.0% from 4.9% which could undermine the Aussie. Risk factors should dominate movement this week in the pair, a break through 0.7300 levels could signal a deeper long term yearly low.
Current Level: 0.7308
Last Weeks Range: 0.7316-0.7389
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose to 0.7385 midweek but failed to clock 0.7400 against the US Dollar (USD) coming under pressure as risk waned and data published big dollar supportive. NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment missed their marks dragging on the Aussie south. The Australian Business outlook continues to look dim with the Sydney coronavirus outbreak forcing lockdowns and denting business confidence. US Producer Price Index released up on the 0.6% at 1.0% and 7.8% on an annual basis confirming more evidence of inflation to come, the USD pushed higher across the board post release sending the cross to 0.7340. At the 0.7300 zone we see reasonable support, below 0.7270 and it’s all on.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7340
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7315- 0.7388
Over the past three weeks the Australian Dollar (AUD) has done well to hold above 0.7300 style levels against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.7425 mid last week before dropping to 0.7350. The Aussie made decent gains post the RBA announcement even though the overall tone by Governor Lowe was dovish. US Non-Farm Payroll released heading into the weekly close, the result coming in better than predicted with jobs numbers nearly reaching 1M from 870k expected. The Unemployment Rate also surprised markets dropping to 5.4% from 5.9% in July, overall the US economy still has a way to go before they reach what is considered “full employment” or pre covid levels of employment of around 3.5%. US CPI for July releases Thursday the calendar highlight for the week with expectations of a drop from the y/y 5.4%, this in turn should give the AUD a boost.
Current Level: 0.7325
Last Weeks Range: 0.7326-0.7426
A “risk off” week saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) drop to 0.6760 over the weekly close against the US Dollar (USD) where it has consolidated into Tuesday. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish cut and poor Aussie employment data drove the Aussie lower. Sentiment improved on Monday over news the Chinese Ministry of Commerce downplayed the cancellation of US farm visits saying last week’s trade discussions were indeed productive despite other media saying otherwise. It could just be the AUD looks cheap at these levels, but we will get more clues later today when Governor Lowe speaks. He is under mounting pressure to cut rates sooner rather than later as markets predict but his comments could be key leading into next week’s RBA cash rate announcement. Certainly a break below 0.675 could spell further downside bias.
Current Level: 0.6774
Last Weeks Range: 0.6761-0.6869
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back all of last week’s gains against the US Dollar falling back to 0.6780 Friday. This is 1 cent lower from the opening price as markets buy the safer greenback. The Federal Reserve lowered its overnight cash rate to 2.0% from 2.25% with Powell’s Fed members split over easing policy further putting a question mark over further cuts this year. Powell reiterated he would need to see a much weaker US economy via data and an intensification to the US/China trade war to need to deliver further cuts. Aussie employment numbers shook the Aussie lower yesterday when the unemployment rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. Heavy support at 0.6700 is the next level of concern for the AUD with a lack of Aussie data next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6783
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6778- 0.6883
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held its ground last week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching a fresh high of 0.6895 before easing lower to 0.6860 on the Monday open. Tensions in the Middle East have affected relations with the US and Iran after a Saudi oil field was drone bombed sent market mood south with downside market risks building again. Economic focus this week lies with the Federal Funds cash rate and following statement with expectations a cut of 25 points to 2.0% and talk of possibly two further cuts this year. 0.6850 offers a decent base in the cross with price hovering around 0.6860 currently, we think risk factors will dominate over the rest of the week. Buyers of AUD/USD should consider these levels and not wait for a potential jump towards 0.7000.
Current Level: 0.6848
Last Weeks Range: 0.6845-0.6895
After the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) reached a fresh six-week high of 0.6895 Thursday before the price fell back to 0.6860 just above the weekly open of 0.6850 as risk sentiment eases with US data supported the greenback. China dropped tariffs on 16 US products in an unprecedented act to win over the US President, Trump retaliated with an act of goodwill announcing he would defer tariffs on 250B of Chinese products until October 15th. US Core CPI published at 0.3% from the 0.2% markets were predicting sending the US Dollar higher across the board along with equity markets. US Retail Sales prints later tonight and is expected to come in lower at 0.2% from July’s 0.7%. Next week’s Fed cash rate and monetary policy statement will be the main focus in a busy few days of economic data. Price has bounced off 0.6880 a number of times over recent weeks suggesting this area has formed a solid base of support. Next week’s Fed will give us further long term momentum signals, certainly buyers of USD should consider above 0.6850
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6868
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6838- 0.6894
While risk currencies enjoy buyer interest the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to look well in control against the US Dollar trading to 0.6860 Tuesday. For six days straight we have seen higher prices in the cross stemming from the 3 September low of 0.6685. US Non-farm payroll disappointed with figures showing a lower number of people were added to the US workforce in August pulling investors out of the greenback. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. This week’s monthly US CPI and Retail Sales remain in focus as the only price moving data to come. Today’s NAB Business confidence shouldn’t shift price far from current levels. We expect AUD long positions to square out, this may shift the cross marginally lower before upside momentum resumes.
Current Level: 0.6858
Last Weeks Range: 0.6688-0.6875
The Australian Dollar (AUD) registered a fresh four week high against the US Dollar (USD) this week reaching a high of 0.6829 Friday. Risk sentiment has improved over the week with the situation in Hong Kong with the Anti- Extradition bill being withdrawn and Brexit also improving. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 1.0% with Lowe saying the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable and will ease policy on an “as needed” basis. Inflation will remain just under the 2% target through to 2020. US ADP Non-Farm employment posted a nice gain of 195,000 up on the expected 148,000 and may signify tonight’s Nonfarm payroll release also prints up on expectations. If it does, we could see the Aussie go lower retesting 0.6780 but from the Fed’s point of view, they may see positive jobs growth as an argument to not cut on the September 19th review.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6809
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6687- 0.6829
This week’s calendar for the US Dollar (USD) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) is jam- packed with many price momentum volatility shifts on the cards. Currently we see AUDUSD hover around the 0.6710 area awaiting the RBA announcement later today with expectations that the RBA will keep rates on hold until November at 1.0%. US ADP and Non-Farm Payroll figures are the other main attractions later in the week and have the capacity to swing prices. Long term, multiyear support at 0.6675 is close, data will need to strongly support the Aussie economy if we are to avoid a break below here.
Current Level: 0.6708
Last Weeks Range: 0.6706-0.6780
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered from 0.6690 late Monday to trade back at 0.6790 against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday after risk markets improved as a result of communication that China has recently made with the US on trade matters dialling down tensions. Assessing the longer term trend of the cross the Aussie has traded lower for six weeks straight into Friday to 0.6720. Australian Construction figures followed by Private Capital Expenditure results deteriorated this week, construction worsening with a contraction over the second quarter falling by 3.8%. Building Approvals release today and may reflect further building activity declines. Meanwhile US consumer confidence miraculously released stable at 131.1 for August following on from July’s 131.8 highlighting a reasonably upbeat mood in the USA. Next week’s NFP- Non-Farm Payroll will be the focus along with the RBA cash rate announcement which is widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.0
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6710
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6689- 0.6787
Despite all that’s been going on in currencies the Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a quiet week drifting around the 0.6740 mark against the US Dollar into Friday. 0.6800 still looks to be showing reasonable resistance with downside bias still favoured. After recently delaying trade tariffs President Trump has decided to increase them in a show of defiance after China confirmed they were adding a 5% tariff to 75B worth of US made products, escalating tensions to another level. Since then we have seen Trump suggest China has made contact with him saying they would like to restart talks. This saw tensions dialled down somewhat into Tuesday and price made a comeback to 0.6780 from Monday’s brief slide to 0.6690. It will be a week of risk related flow in the pair leading into Thursday’s Aussie Building Approvals and US second quarter GDP.
Current Level: 0.6722
Last Weeks Range: 0.6690-0.6799
Having lost the 0.6800 handle the AUD/USD continues to look soft and is currently around the 0.6760 mark with downside bias favoured. Poor local data for PMI services and manufacturing have side-lined Australian dollar (AUD) buyers and the next support is at the key 0.6740 level. If that breaks it would expose 0.6700. Upside resistance is at 0.6790 then 0.6820. This weekend’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium also poses a significant risk event. Fed governors have used past symposiums to signal major changes in central bank policy. At this stage it seems unlikely Fed Chair Powell is going to cave to pressure from Trump and ease policy anywhere near as much as the president would like, but the US Fed is starting to stand out in a world where other central banks are taking a much more dovish stance.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6760
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6751 – 0.6799
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to fall in value against the US Dollar (USD) and sits just above long term support of 0.6700, holding 0.6750 Tuesday. Data in the US continues to impress with Building permits showing new residential construction rose in July at 1.34M compared to the forecast of 1.27M and comes in above the July 2018 1.316M. Attention now lies with today’s RBA minutes from the recent 5th August meeting. Pundits are not expecting any wild moves in price based on a similar rhetoric by Lowe suggesting they will wait and see what happens over the coming few months before changing policy. Forecasts suggest the RBA will cut again at the November meeting and possibly again later in the year. We may get further clues today.
Current Level: 0.6759
Last Weeks Range: 0.6736-0.6818
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades Friday slightly lower than the weekly open of 0.6780 at 0.6775 after a reasonably sideways week of movement. Risk markets extended declines earlier in the week to 0.6754 but with positive employment data publishing price rose sharply to 0.6800 for a brief period. Wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the June quarter including an increase to the number of new people employed rising from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0% but overall Australian employment remains solid and in a healthy place. US CPI was firmer than expected increasing to 0.3% for the month of June and y/y clicking up to 2.2%. Expectations are that CPI will rise further to 2.6% over the coming months. The AUDUSD remains in situ with very little data on the docket next week except meeting minutes from both the Federal Reserve and the RBA
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6777
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6735- 0.6818
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended last week’s decline into Tuesday falling to 0.6750 against the US Dollar (USD). Brief support for the AUD was seen last week when the cross bounced off 0.6675 post the RBNZ announcement to 0.6820 but the market’s appetite for risk has taken hold once again with the escalation of the Trump/China trade dispute. We have a busy week of data on the docket this week with Australian Employment and US CPI and Retail Sales to grab most of the attention. This morning RBA’s Kent made comment that the RBA wasn’t targeting the unemployment rate as their policy guidance, but they are an inflation focused central bank. You could have fooled me as jobs data has and will continue to be extremely important for Australian economic growth. Data dependant, the Aussie could drift lower while markets stay “risk off” the main driver of price
Current Level: 0.6757
Last Weeks Range: 0.6677-0.6821
The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled this week battling to stay above 0.6750 against the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.6675 Wednesday post the RBNZ rate cut announcement. Tuesday’s RBA announcement was a non event after they kept the benchmark cash rate at 1.0%. RBA comments were in line with other central banks when they said the global outlook remains questionable and inflation expectations low. Lowe struck an optimistic tone however on Friday after he addressed parliament saying he thinks the economy may have reached a “gentle turning point” The Aussie Dollar is firmer against the US Dollar heading into the Aussie afternoon session but is still very concerned with the impact the US/China trade war could have on the economy if not resolved soon. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario but Lowe won’t be in any hurry. 0.6850 poses decent resistance for any pull back in the cross above this level with 0.6700 looking like a better bet if next week’s US data prints well and “risk” continues to spook markets.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6813
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6677- 0.6820
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to break downside support lines as it heads into the 0.67’s against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday. Price held up over 0.6750 however as the Aussie received a lift from this morning’s NZ better than expected unemployment release. Overnight manufacturing in the US grew for the 114th consecutive month with a June reading of 53.7 representing continued growth. Risk sentiment in markets took a hit overnight with markets very risk averse again after Trump raised the bar on tariffs on Chinese products, introducing a new tariff of 10% on 300B worth of goods entering the USA starting 1 September. Trump also criticised China for manipulating the Chinese Yuan USD/CNY after this cross travelled up over 7.0 hitting record highs. This is clearly what China want as this could potentially offset most if not all of the 10% Trump has imposed. Today’s RBA interest rate decision is firmly in focus with no change expected from the current 1.0% after back to back cuts recently. Recent data shows the RBA have plenty of reason to hold for now but comments around further easing by Lowe will be key. With a risk off market we see further downside momentum remaining mid to long term.
Current Level: 0.6784
Last Weeks Range: 0.6749-0.6908
The Australian dollar (AUD) has been under relentless pressure from the United States dollar (USD) this week, in a continuation of the move that stated back on 19th July from around level 0.7070 level. A couple of key events have dealt much of the damage. The first of which was yesterday morning’s US Fed rate statement. While the Fed did cut interest rates by 0.25%, it was widely expected and the market seems to have been caught off guard by comments from a less than dovish Bullard. That sent the USD higher against most other currencies, including the AUD. Then compounding the move was the surprise announcement from President Trump overnight that more tariffs are coming onto Chinese imports. The AUD dramatically underperformed falling to a low of 0.6796 so far. Aside from a very brief flash crash at the start of this year, that’s the lowest level in a decade. We have Australian Retail Sales data to digest in the next hour or so, and it will take a solid result to turn the Aussie around. If the data disappoints then a test of support at 0.6765 looks likely.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6803
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6795- 0.6898
Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) broke below key bullish channel support of 0.6970 late last week spelling trouble for the AUD. Overall USD strength had investors selling the Aussie into this week with a bearish theme continuing into Tuesday with price dipping to 0.6897. Markets are now focused on Thursday’s Fed Cash Rate and Federal Reserve statement with Powell widely expected to cut rates to 2.25%. Trading volumes into Thursday will be light as markets hold positions ahead of the FOMC statement where we will find out just how dovish the Fed are. Anything neutral could send the Aussie to immediate support of 0.6860. Later volatility will ramp up again during the US Non-Farm Payroll release where markets are expecting an increase of 160,000 personal to be added to the US workforce.
Current Level: 0.6903
Last Weeks Range: 0.6895-0.7034
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted further into the red against the US Dollar (USD) with Core Durable Goods Orders releasing much higher than predictions of 0.2% at 1.2%. Buyers increased orders for more USD and the Aussie is back at 0.6950 breaking back lower past psychological support of 0.7000 with ease. Focus now lies with next week’s Fed meeting and potential interest rate cuts. Its unsure as to how much a cut has been priced into the currency but we will certainly get a normal amount of volume buying in both directions whatever the announcement. It’s hard to know market sentiment around such releases but we think if a cut by just 25 points eventualities this could be seen as positive putting further pressure on the Aussie into their own RBA August 6 cash rate announcement.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6943
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6940- 0.7057
The Australian dollar (AUD) surged late last week to a high of 0.7081 against the United States dollar (USD), driven by dovish comments from the NY Fed President. A few hours later Fed officials scrambled to clarify he was only talking in “academic” terms and not specifically referencing near term policy decisions. This saw the USD recover some composure and AUDUSD has largely drifted lower since then. That being said, it’s hard to get too negative on the AUDUSD from here. There is decent support around 0.7000 and with the focus firmly on next week’s Fed meeting, and a potential interest rate cut, we suspect that level will contain any periods of near term weakness. Data from the US this week in the form of Core Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP could make or break expectations for either a 25 or 50 point cut from the Fed, and as such we could see further USD volatility.
Current Level: 0.7032
Last Weeks Range: 0.6996-7081
The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to make gains against the United States dollar (USD), surging above resistance around 0.7045 in the past 24 hours to currently trade at 0.7075. Dovish talk from Fed officials have driven the latest move higher and there is little in the way of resistance until 0.7130. With yesterday’s Australian employment data showing a gain of 21k full time jobs, the market is now increasingly of the opinion the RBA will now pause the rate cutting cycle while they asses further incoming data. The 0.7045 level now becomes the first line of support for the AUD and I would expect that to contain any potential near term weakness. RBA Gov Lowe speaks next week, while from the US we have Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7063
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6983 – 0.7081
It has been largely one-way traffic for this pair ever since last Wednesday nights dovish testimony from Fed Chair Powell. That helped to turn the Australian dollar around after briefly trading to a low 0.6911 just prior, and the gains against the United States dollar have been relentless ever since. Yesterday’s release of better than forecast Chinese activity data helped to boost the AUD further and the pair currently trades at 0.7038. It’s hard to know how much further it will go as there are no signs the pair is running out of steam just yet. However, the market is close to the best levels since early May and there is minor resistance close by, around 0.7045. Any move above there would be a bullish sign. Key to whether or not that resistance caps the AUD will likely be todays Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate meeting minutes, set for release in just over an hour. Initial downside support is seen coming in around 0.7000, so those two levels will be key to watch over the course of the next 24 hours.
Current Level: 0.7039
Last Weeks Range: 0.6911-0.7040
It’s been a week of two halves for the AUDUSD. The first half saw the AUD under pressure on the back of declining local consumer sentiment and business confidence, while the USD saw follow on buying after last Friday strong US employment report. But momentum swung around on Wednesday night in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish testimony which saw the USD come under significant selling pressure. The AUDUSD gains continued yesterday driving the pair to an overnight high of 0.6987. With both central banks now in easing mode we may well see the AUDUSD chop around within a similar sort of range as it has over the past 3 weeks or so. Resistance on the topside comes in around 0.7050 and that should provide a cap to any further near term strength, while on the downside there is support around 0.6900 and I would be surprised to see the pair trade significantly lower than that.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6973
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6910 – 0.6994
Friday nights US employment data saw a sharp reaction in the AUDUSD falling from around 0.7016 before the data to a low of 0.6958 post the release. We have seen the pair manage to stabilize above 0.6960 in the early stages of this week as we await to hear from US Fed Chair Powell who is scheduled to speak tonight and then again on Thursday. The market will be looking for any indications from Powell as to the probability / size of any potential upcoming easing. Locally we have Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment to digest of the coming days. It’s hard for us to get too bearish on the Australian dollar (AUD) at the moment, and we expect to continue to see support emerge on any periods of potential weakness toward support at 0.6940.
Current Level: 0.6970
Last Weeks range: 0.6957-0.7047
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the US Dollar (USD) this week, comfortably trading above key support, around 0.7000, at 0.7030 after a brief visit to 0.6955 Monday. The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate for the second straight month from 1.25% to 1.0%. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Australian Building Approvals and Trade Balance both released ahead of expectations before a US Holiday (Independence Day) practically halted currency markets heading into Friday. Watch for overnight NFP – Non Farm Payroll to cause the usual volatility prior to the weekly close
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7023
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6955- 0.7047
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.7035 very early Monday against the US Dollar before giving back most of last week’s rally against the US Dollar (USD). Markets breathed a sigh of relief after the weekend’s G20 meeting highlighted a ceasefire between Trump and China trade negotiations. President Trump holding off increasing the tariffs on Chinese Goods while they work through further trade details. Buy the rumour sell the fact, the Aussie clearly overvalued as investors bought the big dollar in support of a surprisingly happy G20 event. US Equities are still trading at crazy highs erasing May losses the Nasdaq gaining 7.3% in June. The equity rally is based on two factors – the promise of a China/US deal and optimism the Fed will announce a rate cut in July by at least 25 basis points. Currently price is hovering around 0.6965 with the RBA to announce their cash rate later today at 4.30pm NZT. Analysts are drawn between a cut and no cut until the August meeting. Converting AUD around current levels looks attractive to us.
Current Level: 0.6970
Last Weeks Range: 0.6943-0.7034
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its run north over the week to a fresh three week high of 0.7006. Risk appetite has supported the single currency with medium and long term investors inclined to buy commodity currencies in favour of the greenback (USD). A dovish Fed policy outlook and soft Dollar policy has changed things up. We have seen Aussie demand stem from rallying commodity prices and poor Wednesday US Data, although Core Durable Goods numbers were good. Price action looks to be supporting a base forming around 0.6960, but it would take a clean break above resistance of 0.7020 to confirm this outlook. In the meantime, drops look to be well supported ahead of 0.6830. Tonight the G20 starts in Osaka and it should cause volatility over the weekend. We fully expect price to gap on Monday mornings open with Trump and Xi Jinping set to talk on Saturday. Buyers of AUD should look strongly at another around 0.7000
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7004
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6928- 0.7007
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rally off last week’s low of 0.6830 against the US Dollar (USD), to 0.6960 Tuesday. Risk appetite looks stable enough this week and has given investors reason to get back into AUD. This week’s G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan is hailed to be far more exciting than a normal G20 catch up, with Trump and Xi Jinping set to meet to discuss the train trash that is intl trade tariffs. Lowe spoke Monday and continued to highlight global risks and rate cut forecasts with no change slightly more likely on the 2nd July. The next target for the Aussie dollar is 0.7000 resistance and the June high. If US data continues to print below market expectations, we may see the currency track higher. Risk sentiment will be the deciding factor with volatility around the G20 a given.
Current Level: 0.6962
Last Weeks Range: 0.6832-0.6972
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced higher off the long-term low of 0.6830 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) back over 0.6900 to post 0.6923 Friday. Central banks around the world are fairly in sink now after Lowe’s comments the RBA would drop their cash rate possibly in July with more to come. The Fed were not quite as dovish as we expected yesterday after they left the cash rate unchanged at 2.5% with a watch as see approach to further cuts depending on the outcome with Trump’s trade war and economic data. Thursday’s NY session saw a sharp sell of in the big dollar when the Philadelphia Manufacturing survey disappointed bolstering the Fed’s case to ease policy. While the Aussie is enjoying a decent spike higher, buyers of USD should consider converting AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6925
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6831- 0.6934
The Australian Dollar (AUD) this week has fallen significantly below what we conceive as the safe support level of 0.6865 against the US Dollar (USD). This represents a level so low it’s nearly on par with the December 2015 price of 0.6825. Prior to this and we are off the end of my chart which ends June 2013. I’ve been told its March 2009. If the Federal Reserve don’t report an dovish monetary stance Thursday, we are looking at the possibility of the Aussie falling off a cliff to these levels I mention above. Today’s RBA Minutes from the 4th June statement will also be key. Geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on the Aussie Dollar as we head into the end of the Aussie Financial Year 30 June.
Current Level: 0.6856
Last Weeks Range: 0.6848-0.6965
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued to post losses declining further against the US Dollar (USD) into Friday Lunch to 0.6909. The US has been well supported this week, the Aussie giving back all of last week’s gains from its short stay at 0.7020. Australian unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.2% from 5.1% with the change in workforce numbers increasing to 42,000 ahead of the predicted 16,000. This number was somewhat distorted as 39,000 fell under part time listings distorting the numbers positively. Markets focused on the rise to unemployment though which weakened the AUD. Technically price has dipped below the 100 day moving average this week thus we expect a retest of the mid May low of 0.6860 to come into play at some stage. The Federal Reserve publish their cash rate and monetary policy statement next week, expectations are that the Fed will leave it unchanged at 2.50% for at least another month.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6906
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6909- 0.7006
It was choppy week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar pair after the RBA cut rates to 1.25% from 1.50%, but overall the Aussie outperformed making small gains on the US Dollar (USD) back to 0.7000 a five week high. Risk markets also assisted as well as a soft US Dollar after poor Non-Farm Payroll figures released weaker than expected. (75,000 instead of 177,000). Trading Tuesday around 0.6950 we are anticipating NAB Business confidence later today to offer further clues if we can expect further upside. Aussie employment Thursday and US Retail Sales holds market attention later in the week. Support at 0.6940 may hold if not we expect a retest of 0.6900.
Current Level: 0.6963
Last Weeks Range: 0.6953-0.7022
A tough week for the Australian dollar as it has been battered by an RBA rate cut , poor GDP data leading to forecasts of another cut in rates in August and today a lower than expected April trade surplus (AUD4.87 bio vs AUD5.bio forecast)…The AUD peaked at 0.7007 yesterday but as usual, failed to hold over the 0.7000 level and is now back around the 0.6960 level. With downgrades to growth forecasts , the Central bank turning dovish and potential for two more rate cuts by year end , the AUD continues to battle headwinds , a weaker US Non-farm payroll figure tomorrow may provide some respite but we look for trading to shift into the 0.6800/0.6950 range over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6965
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6925- 0.7007
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a relatively quiet week against the United State Dollar (USD), chopping around in a tight range between 0.6904 and 0.6939. While the longer-term trend for the AUDUSD has been to the downside, there are good reasons to question just how much further the pair may fall. The negatives are well known, a slowing housing market weighing on the broader economy, and potential upcoming interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). But countering these are a couple of key facts that need considering. Firstly, the market has now largely priced in couple of interest rate cuts from the RBA, so unless the expectation moves to 3 or 4 upcoming cuts, which is a bit of a leap at this stage, then we’ve already had the bulk of the AUD’s reaction to any potential RBA cut. Secondly, iron ore, which is Australia’s largest export commodity, has been making significant gains recently with the price per ton close to USD100.00. There is a good long-term correlation between the iron ore price and the AUD. That correlation has broken down recently with the current bout of AUD weakness, but the two prices are likely to converge again at some state. All this doesn’t mean the AUDUSD is set to fly higher. We think there is a good chance at some stage the pair tests key support around 0.6800. What these facts do suggest is that if the pair does get down to that support zone around 0.6800, it’s likely a very good chance to convert USD to AUD. We would be surprised to see the pair make any significant break below 0.6800 unless some fundamental change eventuates. We like the prospect of buying AUD on any periods of weakness toward 0.6800.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6920
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6903- 0.6938
A dovish slant by RBA governor Lowe last week has left the Australian Dollar (AUD) broadly on the back foot against the (USD) US Dollar. Through Thursday the AUD declined to 0.6864 a multi-year low. Lowe has signalled a rate cut at the next meeting possibly 0.25% to 1.25%. The big question is how many cuts will we see in 2019? Westpac Bank increased their forecast from two cuts to three in June, August and now November so we see further struggles of AUD on the horizon. If Lowe signals three cuts to come this year, we would see further broad based AUD selling eventuate with only two cuts markets currently priced in to the currency curve. The AUD improved slightly Friday to close at 0.6930. This week’s key data is US prelim GDP q/q expected to come in at 3.5% a little down on the previous quarter of 3.5%. We see support holding this week at the prior low of 0.6865, clients looking to convert AUD to USD should consider at current levels above 0.6880 before further downside resumes.
Current Level: 0.6920
Last Weeks Range: 0.6864-0.6933
The Australian dollar (AUD) has had choppy week vs the United States dollar (USD), influenced initially by the election outcome and then by comments from RBA Governor Lowe. Monday morning saw the AUD react positively to the surprising election outcome, rallying to the weeks high of 0.6934. But the gains could not be sustained in the wake of comments from the RBA Governor on Tuesday who signalled an interest rate cut at their next meeting, in a couple of weeks, is a very real possibility. To be fair, Governor Lowe was as clear as he could ever be and the market heard him loud and clear. Cuts are coming, the only question is how many cuts we will get over the course of this year. Westpac have now increased their rate cut expectations to 3 between now and the end of the year, one in June, August and November. It’s hard to argue with that outlook, and in this environment the AUD will continue to broadly struggle. Key support comes in around 0.6800 and we may well see a test of that over the coming couple of weeks. Tempering downside expectations however, is the fact that some commodity prices, in particular iron ore and gold, have held up extremely well over recent weeks and that may only serve to reinforce the key 0.6800 support area, should the AUD get down there. Clients looking to convert USD to AUD should look to deal on any move toward that level.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6883
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6864- 0.6933
Choppy trading in the AUD after the surprise election result…sold off down to 0.6863 on this cross, then bounced back above 0.6900 to 06932 in late trading yesterday. Now at 0.6907 we expect trading to consolidate around current levels ahead of the RBA minutes this afternoon which are expected to signal easier policy and a later key speech by Governor Lowe. In a speech entitled ‘The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy’, look for Lowe to emphasise the Bank’s easing bias and pave the way for a cut in June…..Sellers of AUD should look to maximise current levels as any heightened rate cut expectations will see the AUD trade lower…Immediate support is at 0.6865 with resistance at 0.6930.
Current Level: 0.6918
Last Weeks Range: 0.6863-0.7006
The Australian dollar (AUD) has struggled this week, driven lower by China trade concerns, a depreciating Chinese yuan, and disappointing local unemployment data. The risks of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month have also increased and it’s hard to see the AUD staging any significant recovery in the very near term. This weekend’s election looks to be a close call and it could make for an interesting market open on Monday morning. The next key support level for the AUDUSD exchange rate comes in around 0.6800. At this stage the market looks like the market wants to test that. Clients looking to convert USD to AUD should view any move down to that support area as a good opportunity to deal.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6891
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6886 – 0.7018
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to trade in its bearish cycle from the mid-April high of 0.7205 against the US Dollar (USD) down to 0.6955 Tuesday. Five weeks of straight declines has landed the Aussie firmly below the physiological 0.7000 level which now acts as resistance for the cross. Friday’s y/y US CPI to the month of April rose to 2.0% from 1.9% showing the US economy in a firm league of its own as other countries inflation targets are devalued. Risk factors over the US and China trade was have affected any upside momentum in the Aussie with markets remaining risk averse for the better part of a week. Things on this front worsened overnight with Trump suggesting he is offering China one month for agree a deal or face increased tariffs on an additional 300-325M worth of Chinese exports to the US. US Retail Sale prints Thursday along with Aussie key jobs data – then over the weekend is the Australian Election. Investors should look at securing USD on spikes above high 0.69’s with the Aussie downside bias expected over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6954
Last Weeks Range: 0.6939-0.7048
The Australian Dollar climbed to 0.7045 versus the US Dollar off the back of no change from the 1.50% cash rate announced by the RBA Wednesday. Markets had clearly factored in a cut so it was not a surprise to see the Aussie rally. Governor Lowe remained on the fence with a neutral statement confirming employment growth is the light at the end of the tunnel for the RBA with an improvement in the 1.3% inflation forecast needed. At the moment the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target is falling well short. US and China trade tensions have increased as Trump has threatened tougher tariffs if the Chinese don’t cooperate. Talks were held this morning with nothing really coming from it- they will meet again tomorrow. We still see a downside bias in the cross with price to retest the weekly low of 0.6960 again.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7008
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6962- 0.7049
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under heavy pressure ahead of this afternoon’s 4.30 NZT RBA rate meeting. Speculators are predicting a 45/55 probability a cut will be made to the 1.75% to 1.50% based on overall deteriorating economic outlook. Trade tariff worries between Trump advisors and Chinese officials were back on front page news yesterday after Trump has threatened to increase the 10% tariff on Chinese products to 25% starting this Friday. Wednesday’s trade meeting looked to have been cancelled by the Chinese but over the last few hours it seems a Chinese delegation will indeed travel to the USA for talks. Risk markets have been hit with equities trading lower and sentiment for commodity currencies down. The Aussie has traded to 0.6962 late Monday but has recovered to 0.6990. Volatility will be massive later today starting with Aussie Retail Sales at 1.30 NZT. Later in the week US m/m CPI publishes. We see the cross remaining under 0.7000 with possible downside bias to a 0.6800 bottom. Buying USD at current levels over 0.6960 should not be sneezed at.
Current Level: 0.6993
Last Weeks Range: 0.6963-0.7068
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher to 0.7065 early in the week against the US Dollar (USD) but was met with stiff greenback support after US data surprised to the upside and Chinese date disappointed affecting risk sentiment. ADP data followed by the Federal Reserve rate announcement Thursday morning pushed investors out of Aussie back into the Dollar when Powell suggested the next rate announcement on June 2nd would likely remain unchanged at 2.5% pouring water on chances for a cut. Price continued to drift lower into Friday with the much anticipated (NFP) non-Farm Payroll to release tomorrow morning. At a guess we see the Aussie drifting lower (now below massive support at 0.7000 at 0.6997 as I write) if NFP and next Tuesday’s RBA confirm further downside. Stay tuned as we should see plenty of swings and movement over the next few days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6996
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6991- 0.7068
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has done a good job of holding up in 2019 against the US Dollar (USD) even though last week it dipped below crucial support of 0.7000 to 0.6985 – but only for around 3 hours before bouncing higher. This cements yet another solid support base for the physiological 0.7000 level going forward – breaking below this level just became harder. With a Fed adjustment back to an accommodative angle and positive recent US/China trade discussions these have served the commodity hinged currency well. Weak US Core PCE Index disappointed Monday coming in at 0.1% instead of the expected 0.2% which included information for February and March because of the US Govt shutdown. The Aussie pushed higher off the open to 0.7055. This week’s major releases are Fed Funds Rate and federal Reserve statement- no change from the 2.50% is expected. Later in the week (NFP) Non-Farm payroll is expected to show another positive month of April for employment. We are picking a retracement to last week’s open of 0.7150 if data allows.
Current Level: 0.7042
Last Weeks Range: 0.6988-0.7139
The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost ground to the United States dollar (USD) over the past week. Those losses have accelerated in recent days on the back of broad based USD strength. Overnight the pair traded down below 0.7100 making a low of 0.7081. Attention now turns to today’s Australian inflation data and the risk that a soft result could pave the way for a test of the key psychological level of 0.7000. The market is expecting a result of 0.4%, which would be unchanged from prior. Any print below 0.4% will see the Australian dollar under further pressure. Over the coming days from the US we also have Durable Goods Order and Advance GDP to digest. There are signs that the US economy may well have improved over the past month or so and there is the potential for a stronger than forecast GDP result, which would boost the USD further.
Current Level: 0.7096
Last Weeks Range: 0.7081-0.7204
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its six-week bullish theme against the US Dollar (USD) trading around the 0.7180 area Wednesday. Higher highs and higher lows occupy the chart over the last few weeks with the Aussie extending its grasp on the greenback. RBA minutes from the meeting two weeks back highlighted the same neutral to slightly dovish approach to policy. A wait a see view with low chances of raising rates was discussed with a large emphasis on the jobs market supporting the economy. Tomorrow’s Aussie jobs report will be super key with growth of around 15,000 people expected. Friday’s US Retail Sales will also add volatility to price before the week winds down for Good Friday holiday.
Current Level: 0.7160
Last Weeks Range: 0.7086-0.7192
The Australian Dollar (AUD) climbed to a new high of 0.7175 yesterday against the USD Dollar (USD) as a by-product of risk favorable market conditions. RBA assistant governor Debelle was optimistic of property recovering off its low and employment, the economic saviour, remaining strong through the next few quarters. Just when price looked like it would break the late Feb high of 0.7200 it reversed on upbeat US data back to 0.7120 on US Dollar strength. US m/m CPI came in at 0.4% over expectations of 0.3% and jobless claims figures dropped to the lowest level since 1969. The number of Americans filing for the unemployment benefit was a seasonally adjusted 196,000 and highlights for the Fed a needed discussion on expectations of cutting rates which may end up being delayed. Price now looks vulnerable to break lower through the weekly open of 0.7100, buyers of USD should consider current levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7129
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7087- 0.7174
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has largely been range bound over the past few days amid risk sentiment and decent Aussie Data closing the week at 0.7100. The US Dollar (USD) had bouts of support but closed the week lower. US Jobs numbers shifted price from 0.7125 to 0.7090 with unemployment remaining the same at 3.8% and employment numbers improving to 196,000 from the 172,000 as average earnings growth dropped to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% but rebounding from poor February numbers. This news will give the Fed scope and confidence to not cut rates in the near term. The Fed will remain patient now and wait and see what the economy does before making their next move. Thursday’s US CPI m/m and FOMC meeting should give us hints on direction.
Current Level: 0.7121
Last Weeks Range: 0.7053-0.7130
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its run off last week’s low off 0.7063 against the US Dollar pushing to 0.7135 Monday as risk markets improved. US Equities are all higher overnight with the Nasdaq up 1.33%. The Aussie Dollar has been the strongest performer over the last 5 days. This morning’s US Retail Sales wasn’t the best result printing at -0.2% after 0.3% was expected, confirming signs that the US economy is slowing. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement holds the interest of investors with expectations of a turn to dovish from neutral and increased chances of rate cuts sooner than expected. With the Aussie holding 0.7100 this morning we don’t expect price to drop below the magical 0.7000 with markets already pricing in most of the forecast. Non- Farm Payroll releases at the end of the week.
Current Level: 0.7111
Last Weeks Range: 0.7065-0.7147