AUD to GBP – Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar

When converting AUD to GBP, or Pounds Sterling to Australian dollars (GBP to AUD), by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/GBP currency conversion rates.

AUD to GBP Overview: The Australian dollar is currently seen as a barometer for global growth. Whilst the Pound Sterling is also seen as a “growth currency”, it gravitates closer to the middle of the “growth currency, safe haven currency” spectrum, in terms of currency risk profiles. Australia’s exposure to the Asian growth economies of the past decade, has seen it make what is now arguably a paradigm shift higher in value, against the Pound Sterling.

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Historical Ranges: 1 year 5 years 10 years
AUD/GBP .5618 – .6716 .4482 – .6955 .3693 – .6955
GBP/AUD 1.4890 – 1.7800 1.4378 – 2.2311 1.4378 – 2.7078

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 1.00%         Bank of England (BoE): 0.75%

We provide insight into the Australian Dollar and Pound Sterling (AUD/GBP) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts.


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The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its climb to 0.5425 (1.8430) against the British Pound (GBP) into early Friday boosted by broad risk sentiment. Commodities have made massive gains overnight with precious metals and energy prices all up over 1.0%. The GBP performed quite well over the week against other crosses with markets now pricing in a 1.0% interest rate by December 2022. The Australian Unemployment Rate rose in the month of September to 4.6% from 4.5% in August but releasing better than the predicted 4.8%. Job numbers were poor, releasing worse than estimates with 138,000 less people employed. Of note the participation rate shrank from 62.2% to 61.5% of the population. Looking into next week’s economic releases we have UK CPI y/y and Retail Sales. With the Aussie set to post its fourth straight week of gains we expect this momentum to continue.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5424 GBPAUD 1.8436
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5357- 0.5430 GBPAUD 1.8416- 1.8666

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been underpinned by Crude Oil rises and the ongoing recovery of iron ore values with the commodity trading at 116 per tonne compared to 108 a week ago. Outpacing the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5405 (1.8500) this morning from the weekly open of 0.5365 (1.8640) the Aussie broke through long term support at 0.5385 (1.8570) marking a fresh 13 week high in the pair. Brexit uncertainty with woes continuing in the battle of the Northern Irish and UK border still doing the rounds. The UK still wants drastic changes made in the protocol which will govern trade flow between the two countries. Earlier UK Construction PMI came in softer than expected with rising energy prices worrying markets with respect to slowing growth implications. The Calendar is fairly bare this week in the cross with just Aussie jobs numbers printing Thursday. We expect more upside momentum in the AUD to develop.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5406 (1.8497)
Resistance: 0.5430 (1.8760)
Support: 0.5330 (1.8420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5327-0.5378 (1.8594-1.8769)

The British Pound (GBP) climbed to 1.8770 (0.5330) midweek against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before risk appetite improved taking the cross to 0.5375 (1.8600) into Friday. At Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting Governor Lowe said it will take some time before wages growth and the rate of inflation rise, giving support to an interest rate increase. Lowe warned of soaring house prices, hinting at a tightening of mortgage lending restrictions was likely to cool the market. Overall the forward guidance was dovish with markets predicting price rises won’t be transitory which could force the RBA to hike rates sooner than expected. A daily close passed 0.5385 (1.8570) the 12 week high in the pair and we could see further support develop for the Aussie.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5372 GBPAUD 1.8615
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5327- 0.5375 GBPAUD 1.8602- 1.8769

The latest rebound for the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been attributed to the pickup in Iron Ore prices and equities. Solid UK data to end the week boosted the Pound (GBP) slightly with Manufacturing and final GDP q/q coming in at 5.5% instead of the predicted 4.8%. Coming from 0.5305 (1.8850) levels the Aussie topped out at 0.5375 (1.8600) before settling around 0.5360 (1.8650) into the weekly close. This week’s slide to 0.5350 (1.8690) as US equities close lower Monday lends to further declines likely. UK’s Brexit minister Frost has threatened to suspend Brexit in parts with the EU if they don’t agree changes to the Northern Ireland agreement. He said a hard border on Ireland was not working and changes needed to be made. Triggering article 16 to suspend part of the Brexit deal could be the only way forward. Today’s RBA policy statement and rate announcement shouldn’t bring any surprises, with the central bank predicted to retain current policy. Topside moves in the Aussie could be limited this week.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5351 (1.8688)
Resistance: 0.5380 (1.8920)
Support: 0.5285 (1.8580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5295-0.5375 (1.8604-1.8886)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been able to break past the 0.5330 (1.8770) resistance level over the week reaching 0.5370 (1.8620) in early Friday sessions against the British Pound. The English Quid did however receive an unexpected boost this week when second quarter GDP was revised higher. UK GDP q/q rose by 5.5% instead of the earlier estimate of 4.8% to end the June period. Although the fresh number brings the UK’s economic position more inline with other economies, data shows the overall economic situation stalled in July. With a combination of incredible Australian Building approvals rising 6.8% in August and overall weakness in GBP coming from the UK petrol crisis and UK energy suppliers going out of business the Pound had no chance. A retest of 0.5400 (1.8530), the 11 week high looks possible in the coming days.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5362 GBPAUD 1.8649
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5294- 0.5370 GBPAUD 1.8620- 1.8887

Supply constraints have dampened the English Pound (GBP) mood over the last few days with the currency under the pump in the face of the Bank of England signalling they could raise rates sooner rather than later last week. The seriousness of supply chain bottlenecks was part of the UK govt’s decision to offer temporary visas to fuel tank workers and food truck workers. Many petrol stations have run out of gas with panic buying leaving forecourts high and dry. Fuel shortages are expected to return to normal in the coming days. The situation could create weaker growth and cause higher inflation and ultimately put the GBP under huge pressure if the restrictions continue. The Pound (GBP) started the week well but hit a wall overnight falling back to 1.8800 (0.5320) from 1.8900 (0.5290) into Tuesday sessions. Today’s Australian Retail Sales is our only tier one publication this week with predictions August spending will drop back -2.5%.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5316 (1.8811)
Resistance: 0.5165 (1.9750)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9360)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5291-0.5333 (1.8752-1.8901)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has clawed back fortnightly losses over the week trading back at 0.5325 (1.8780) this morning after starting the week around the 0.5290 (1.8900) level. The Bank of England (BoE) could end up raising rates before the market expects following last night’s BoE policy announcement. The bank has signaled a case for tighter policy and modest tapering, which in turn strengthened the GBP post release. Markets are now pricing in a hike of interest rates by March next year. However if the economy grows at a faster pace than predicted with inflation above 2% and employment falling we could very well see the BoE act faster. Job vacancies remain low leading businesses to raise wages, this could lead to price pressures prompting the central bank to raise rates. Earlier the RBA minutes reiterated their case for no rate hikes until 2024 as the board committed to supportive monetary conditions as economic recovery is delayed. Looking ahead we have just Aussie Retail Sales to end the quarter.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5321 GBPAUD 1.8793
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5275- 0.5333 GBPAUD 1.8749- 1.8957

As risk sentiment in markets takes on water the Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed higher off Monday’s open against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5300 (1.8870) into Tuesday trading. It’s a strange reversal of fortunes for the Aussie with no actual catalyst for the turnaround. All data and a risk averse tone should have sent prices through to at least 0.5265 (1.90) in our book. Even a hawkish tone expected this week from the Bank of England with talk of rate hike predictions hasn’t boosted the GBP. Let’s call it a temporary correction, it’s our view the central bank will largely stick to the recent August chat of a gradual tightening over time. The central bank is not expected to hike rates until well into 2022. RBA Minutes later today could weaken the AUD.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5310 (1.8832)
Resistance: 0.5330 (1.8960)
Support: 0.5275 (1.8760)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5275-0.5319 (1.8802-1.8959)

The British Pound extended its run against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week reaching 0.5285 (1.8920) underpinned by poor risk sentiment. UK CPI came in at 3.2% printing better than the 2.9% we were expecting, blowing away the 2.0% for the 12 months ending August. The largest even m/m increase since 1997 and the Pound was up half a percent on the announcement. It was another story Thursday when Australian Jobs data printed, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% from 4.6% surprising markets after predictions of a much higher read at 5.0% never eventuated. The news should have spiked the AUD but cancelling out any moves was a downbeat report revealing a massive 146k contraction in employment, the participation likely to blame. With the pair riding the 50 day moving average further GBP buying could be the ticket leading into next week’s predicted more hawkish tone when the Bank of England meet.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5285 GBPAUD 1.8921
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5282- 0.5331 GBPAUD 1.8757- 1.8932

The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed last week earning the spot of the weakest traded major currency. Against the British Pound (GBP) we saw a massive shift off the high of 0.5405 (1.8500) to close the week at 0.5320 (1.8800). The cross now sits in a consolidation phase in the aftermath of last week’s run at 0.5320 (1.8790) into Tuesday sessions. UK Inflation will stage centre stage this week as punters hone in on the y/y release tomorrow. Predictions are for a rise to around 3.0% from the current 2.0% as the economy continues to recover from covid. This may have policymakers rethinking their strategy on rate rises, possibly rising over the next year or so if inflationary pressures continue. Expectations are that inflation could rise to 4.0% by the end of 2021. On the chart we expect a push back from the Aussie this week and a bounce higher off the 50% fib retracement area at 0.5310 (1.8830).
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5319 (1.8800)
Resistance: 0.5350 (1.8900)
Support: 0.5290 (1.8700)
Last Weeks Range:0.5310-0.5372 (1.8615-1.8833)

As we commented, the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to hold its ground around the 0.5405 (1.8500) zone in what we considered “overbought territory” falling back against the Euro (EUR) over the week to 0.5330 (1.8770) Friday. Equity markets and metal prices turned softer amid the RBA policy statement. The RBA maintained its cash rate target at 0.10% Tuesday and stuck with its original plan to start pulling back their bond buying from 5B per week to 4B until at least February 2022. This comes as the economy loses considerable momentum during a time the country struggles with the delta outbreak. Unemployment is expected to rise over the coming months as Lowe reaffirmed they would not be hiking interest rates until at least 2024. Bank of England’s Saunders came out saying – he was worried about continuing Asset Purchases when CPI is at 4%, this may cause inflation expectations to drift higher and cause more dramatic monetary policy correction responses later. His view is to ease off the pedal and gradually decrease spending. Support at 0.5280 (1.8930) looks to be the next target in this GBP bull run.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5326 GBPAUD 1.8775
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5322- 0.5392 GBPAUD 1.8545- 1.8789

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended gains into the close of the week against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5395 (1.8530) a 7 week high, the third week of the current bull trend which started at the low of 0.5220 (1.9150) in late August. Today’s RBA rate announcement and policy statement is the focus with predictions the central bank may hold back on starting to taper their bond buying program from 5B a week to 4B. Uncertain market conditions coupled with Sydney hospitals influx of covid patients doesn’t make good reading, 5 people died yesterday. The risk favored currency may have a downside twang to it this week as the currency looks overbought.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5375 (1.8604)
Resistance: 0.5410 (1.8780)
Support: 0.5325 (1.8480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5301-0.5395 (1.8535-1.8863)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) accelerated into late July levels this week against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5370 (1.8630) Friday led by risk sentiment and an overall correction after the run up to the 2021 low. These GBP setbacks should however be well supported longer term to the 0.5410 (1.8490) area. UK Manufacturing published at 60.3 on target but with constraints hampering supply chain issues again in August, this has dented output and slowed growth across the region. UK House prices grew in August by 2.1% and annually by 11.0%- the second biggest jump in 15 years. Australia’s economy has apparently bounced back from the covid recession rising 0.7% in the June quarter. Clearly this doesn’t reflect the full picture of the economy as it’s tormented by ongoing covid led lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne. Next week’s key standout is the RBA rate announcement and policy announcement. Volatility in the pair with US NFP releasing in the morning could bring about AUD weakness.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 1.8709 GBPAUD 0.5345
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5294- 0.5366 GBPAUD 1.8634- 1.8886

Australian Retail Sales released Friday was poor at -2.7% as predicted, only making a small dent in the rise from 0.5245 (1.9070) to 0.5315 (1.8820) last week against the British Pound (GBP). It’s been a massive “risk on” week with investor appetite high post the Pfizer vaccine getting full approval status from the FDA. Stock indices consolidated around all-time highs boosting the Aussie with the currency having its best week this year. The Aussie found support from Iron Ore with the commodity rebounding off recent lows up 5% to 155.00 per tonne. However, topside moves appear unlikely to continue with the covid pandemic looking like it will continue a while in Australia. This could lead to a major contraction in the third quarter with expectations of a slide into a formal recession. Tomorrow’s second quarter GDP consensus looks like it could publish at -2.0%. Early Tuesday the cross is trading around the 0.5305 (1.8850) mark, a retest of 0.5285 (1.8920) looks possible.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5299 (1.8871)
Resistance: 0.5350 (1.9180)
Support: 0.5210 (1.8700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5250-0.5319 (1.8801-1.9046)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been well supported this week against the Euro (EUR) on broad based selling in the US Dollar and positive risk mood as investors put aside global outcome fears. The cross topped out at 0.6185 (1.6165) into Thursday sessions before easing back slightly Friday to 0.6160 (1.6240) as stocks traded down to session lows. Earlier, German manufacturing confirmed the economy continues to grow sharply in August indicating a rapid ongoing recovery in employment and increased demands which are outstripping supply. Focus today is with Australian Retail Sales and the comments to come from Fed chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Next week’s Aussie second quarter GDP is expected to fall from 1.8% q/q to somewhere around 0. Those that are waiting for further improvements in price before buying EUR should consider current levels.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6161 EURAUD 1.6231
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6092- 0.6186 EURAUD 1.6165- 1.6413

The British Pound (GBP) continued to rise against the Australian Dollar (AUD) late Friday reaching 1.9150 (0.5220) before settling around 1.9080 (0.5240) into the weekly close. Monday sessions turned “risk positive” with US indices regaining last week’s losses- up over 1% on the day taking the Aussie to 0.5260 (1.9020) into early Tuesday. Earlier UK Retail Sales came in poor at -2.5% for the month of July highlighting a slowing economy and nervous shoppers with delta on the rise. Meanwhile UK companies experienced a sharp slowdown in growth during August according to the latest figures with businesses experiencing staff shortages and supply chain issues amid the backlog of work. Aussie Retail Sales prints at the end of the week for July and is predicted to be poor. On the chart we could test the May 2020 price of 0.5210 (1.9180) this week.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5251 (1.9044)
Resistance: 0.5285 (1.9150)
Support: 0.5220 (1.8920)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5222-0.5304 (1.8852-1.9151)

The British Pound (GBP) has again extended gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week taking the cross to a fresh yearly low of 0.5230 (1.9130). NSW coronavirus pandemic woes and risk off flows have dictated movement. UK CPI y/y has eased to 2.0% from 2.5% in the month of July coming off its 3 year high after market expectations were 2.3%. This brings it back within the Central bank’s target zone. The drop can be partially explained by the sharp rise in prices around July 2020 as lockdown restrictions were eased. Inflation is predicted to rise again in the coming months as consumer spending increases. The Australian Unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.9% yesterday as few people were actively seeking work in July during covid lockdown restrictions currently in place. The unemployment figure is expected to rise dramatically in August as lockdowns have extended across Melbourne. Economists are also expecting a sharp contraction to GDP in the third quarter. The cross looks to have consolidated around 1.9070 into Friday. Of note, if we see a further slump in iron ore prices the Aussie could test further downside levels.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5243 GBPAUD 1.9073
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5226- 0.5316 GBPAUD 1.8809- 1.9132

The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed the week out in positive territory reaching 0.5320 (1.8800) against the British Pound (GBP) the 3-week high. Friday’s UK Gross Domestic Product was estimated to have increased by 4.8% in the second quarter of 2021 meeting predictions after recent easing of coronavirus restrictions. Currently GDP is 4.4% slightly below where it was pre- covid in the last quarter of 2019. Vaccine rollouts across the UK region continue to set the benchmark with over 89% of adults having had their first dose. England and Northern Island from Monday joined Ireland and Wales in relaxing a self-isolating rule. Those that are fully vaccinated no longer need to self-isolate if they come in contact with a positive covid person. Key data this week is Australian jobs data with expectations the unemployment rate could tick up from 4.9% in line with recent high covid cases closing businesses. Early Tuesday the AUD has recovered from 0.5280 (1.8930) to 0.5305 (1.8850)
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5285 (1.8921)
Resistance: 0.5335 (1.9000)
Support: 0.5265 (1.8750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5283-0.5329 (1.8766-1.8930)

The English Pound was weighed down midweek after a political confrontation between Chancellor Sunak and Johnson along with news of a surge of 43.0% in business closures in the second quarter from a year ago at the same time. The office of statistics counted more than 105,000 businesses were removed between April and June from the business register. Coronavirus cases have blown out in the UK and in NSW with over 29,000 in the past 24 hours and over 300 in NSW, Australia. The vaccine rollout in the UK is still impressive with 89% of adults having their first dose. The economic impacts will no doubt be felt over the year remaining. We don’t predict the AUD to make any surprise recovery on the chart in the medium term, perhaps next week’s job’s numbers could give it some motivation, but we doubt it. This being said the long term bearish run since early April should continue for a while yet with prices to test 0.5265 (1.9000) soon.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5313 GBPAUD 1.8821
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5285- 0.5328 GBPAUD 1.8768- 1.8920

After 5 weeks of losses for the Australian Dollar (AUD) the currency came out on top “just” against the British Pound (GBP) with price closing around 0.5300 (1.8860). Bank of England’s Broadbent said post the Bank of England Policy Statement, some moderate tightening may be necessary and much of the inflation has been spurred by supply constraints. The BoE however kept their policy settings in place with a muted response by markets, if anything the GBP was held back a touch. This week’s price action has the GBP extending Friday’s gains, reaching 0.5290 (1.8900) with the long term low at 0.5270 (1.8970) firmly in sight. Looking ahead we have NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment and later Prelim UK GDP q/q publishing. With lockdowns in play in NSW affecting economic performance it’s hard to see the Aussie appreciating this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5291 (1.8900)
Resistance: 0.5330 (1.9090)
Support: 0.5240 (1.8770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5285-0.5329 (1.8766-1.8922)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered some of last week’s losses against the British Pound (GBP) climbing from the 2019 low of 0.5405 (1.8500) back to 0.5450 (1.8340) as risk markets supported the AUD along with fresh weakness in the Pound. Johnson is set to meet with EU officials this week, the hot topic will be the Irish Backstop, but he still remains defiant over the idea of extending the deadline. Governor Lowe speaks later today and Bank of England Governor Carney also is speaking later in the week. With no data in the pair this week focus will turn to central bank comments. With Australian Banks bringing forward their cut expectations to possibly next week from November things look to heat up. Slowly but surely the Pound gains the long term edge over the Aussie, with price now eyeing 0.5300 (1.8870) the multi-year low last seen during the GBP crash during the 2016 Brexit referendum vote.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5445 (1.8365)
Resistance: 0.5480 (1.8480)
Support: 0.5410 (1.8250)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5407-0.5502 (1.8111-1.8495)

The English Pound has surged higher during the course of the week to reach a new high of 1.8470 (0.5415) against the Australian Dollar. This is the lowest level for the Aussie since May of this year. Australian jobs data released up on expectations with an additional 22,000 people added to the workforce but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which markets focused on pulled the Aussie lower into Friday. The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged overnight in a 0-9 unanimous vote by central bank members. Massive uncertainty still remains for the world’s 5th largest economy heading into the 31 October Brexit deadline. Sterling was broadly unchanged on the news. The bank of England however made it clear that another delay to Brexit could lead to much further economic weakness. Boris Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit on 31st October “come what may”. Less uncertainty with Brexit suggests the Pound may get a lot stronger.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5411 GBPAUD 1.8480
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5412- 0.5540 GBPAUD 1.8050- 1.8475

The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed the week around 0.5500 (1.8170) against the British Pound off the back of optimistic Brexit news, but on Monday’s open the run lower ended when a Saudi Arabian oil field was drone bombed by Iran denting market sentiment with investors diving for the safe haven. The Aussie retraced back to 0.5540 (1.8050) on the news and continues to trade around this level into Tuesday. Boris is confident he will be able to get a deal across the line prior to the 31st October deadline with recent moves by parliament to block a no deal Brexit. EU lawmakers will vote to change the Irish backstop so it only applies to Northern Island looks to be one of the possible breakthroughs in the negotiating process. If indeed a deal can be struck prior to the deadline of which is voted in as law the GBP will certainly go through the roof. It’s a busy week for the pair with the Bank of England cash rate announcement Thursday followed by their monetary policy statement. No change is expected from the 0.75%. English Retail Sales is first with Aussie jobs data publishing early Thursday.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5516 (1.8129)
Resistance: 0.5540 (1.8250)
Support: 0.5480 (1.8050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5495-0.5593 (1.7879-1.8197)

The British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) remained within recent ranges over the week bouncing around the 0.5565 (1.7970) area. New headlines are suggesting that Boris Johnson misled the Queen and voters. Scottish appeal judges have ruled that he unlawfully prorogued parliament to allow any proper time to go over the current Brexit strategy. The Speaker of the House John Bercow said he must now obey the law and request a Brexit extension. Michael Barnier the top EU negotiator said yesterday there were no credible reasons why they would reopen formal negotiations over the Irish Backstop and Boris Johnson’s officials were yet to see any decent Brexit plan on which the UK and EU could build on. Given the chances of a no deal Brexit looks reasonably safe the chances are high of a possible referendum and or general election. Once referendum or general elections are announced this will see the Pound bullish. The majority who voted “leave” would vote stay which would be extremely good for the Pound. The calendar looks busy next week with Aussie employment data publishing and the UK official cash rate and statement.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5570 GBPAUD 1.7953
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5536- 0.5604 GBPAUD 1.7842- 1.8062

The British Pound was boosted Monday to 0.5550 (1.8030) off the back of better than forecast UK GDP for July publishing at 0.3% from 0.1%. The UK Index of Production also rose by 0.1% from June 2019 to July with manufacturing chipping in the biggest contribution of 0.3%. With only NAB Business confidence printing over the remainder of the week attention will lie with Brexit developments. The probability of brexit taking place is now around 55% and the chance of a no deal brexit has dropped to 20% with no Brexit at all at 25%. Lawmakers are now debating whether Boris Johnson will indeed follow a new law blocking a no deal Brexit. Another choppy week in the AUDGBP pair with high volatility suggests price may pivot around the current 0.5555 (1.8000)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5559 (1.7988)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8100)
Support: 0.5525 (1.7860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5522-0.5620 (1.7794-1.8110)

It’s been a game of two halves this week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) with early week supporting the AUD on data and recently Brexit developments supporting the Pound. After reaching 0.5620 (1.7800) levels the Aussie retreated back to the weekly open at 0.5530 (1.8090) Friday. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% and left scope for further easing if economic factors saw the need. The GBP has felt confident after this week’s voting saw hopes of an early election canned as well as a disorderly no deal Brexit. Boris will need to comply with the voting result that will see him needing to ask the EU for a three month extension. He said earlier today he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than to ask for an extension. Looking ahead focus on the data front lies with the Non-Farm Payroll release tomorrow. Analysis are starting to suggest the GBP could be starting to turn positive with the no deal Brexit bill expected to be passed by tonight, but its early days.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5526 GBPAUD 1.8096
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5518- 0.5620 GBPAUD 1.7792-1.8110

Crazy volatility this week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected as MP’s return to their desks after summer break. Trading around 0.5570 (1.7950) Tuesday the GBP has fallen out of favour already this week with Johnson saying this morning he would table a motion to hold a general election if MP’s opposed a no-deal Brexit. Tory and Labour are collaborating to bring in a bill designed to stop the UK leaving on the 31st October with no agreement. UK Manufacturing index declined to 47.4 from the predicted 48.0 showing a seven year low as economic and political uncertainty has tainted growth in manufacturing during August. Today the RBA announces their cash rate announcement, widely expected to remain at 1.0% through to November. The central bank has made it clear they will act if they need to, we should get more signs today around timing. Aussie GDP prints tomorrow for the June quarter with expectations of a solid result. We expect price to favour GBP weakness this week and a possible retest of 0.5645 (1.7720)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5565 (1.7969)
Resistance: 0.5645 (1.8250)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7710)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5484-0.5580 (1.7922-1.8234)

Another volatile week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with more Brexit headlines dominating. The British Pound rallied to 0.5450 (1.8340) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) off Monday’s open but the move was short lived when Trump reported China wanted to re- continue trade talks boosting market mood and sending the Pound sharply lower to 0.5540 (1.8040). Given the changeable nature of the Brexit process we see further downside in the Aussie leading into the 31 October deadline. Next week on the economic docket we have the RBA cash rate announcement- no change expected along with second quarter GDP and Retail Sales. On the Pound side, manufacturing PMI Monday will be in focus. Direction is tough to gauge but we certainly should see further declines in the Pound leading up to the 31 October exit.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5508 GBPAUD 1.8155
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5453- 0.5551 GBPAUD 1.8015- 1.8337

EU Advisor to the UK prime minister David Frost will meet this week to discuss alternatives to May’s Brexit plan in Brussels on Wednesday. Obviously there is still hope to avoid a no Brexit deal despite ongoing disappointments from Johnson. The British Pound rallied to 0.5450 (1.8340) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) off Monday’s open but the move was short lived when Trump reported China wanted to re- continue trade talks boosting market mood and sending the Pound sharply lower to 0.5540 (1.8040). Given the changeable nature of the Brexit process we see further downside in the Aussie leading into the 31 October deadline. Later this week Australian Building Approvals may offer AUD support if we see a positive reading.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5541 (1.8045)
Resistance: 0.5570 (1.8250)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7950)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5455-0.5617 (1.7802-1.8332)

The AUD/GBP tracked lower overnight as the GBP was buoyed by more positive Brexit news from UK PM Johnson’s meeting with German Chancellor Merkel. Also undermining the AUD were yesterday’s weaker Aussie economic data for PMI services and manufacturing data. Currently sitting around 0.5516 (1.8130) look for this cross to test back to the 0.5490 level, however given the changeable nature of the Brexit process we remain mildly bullish for the AUD on this cross and look for a move back to the 0.5550/60 level.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5513 GBPAUD 1.8138
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5508 – 0.5623 GBPAUD 1.7785 – 1.8154

Recent focus around an extension past the 31 October Brexit deadline has buoyed the British Pound over the past few days against the Australian Dollar Tuesday to 0.5580 (1.7930). Despite market uncertainty associated with Brexit the GBP has recently welcomed upbeat data with CPI y/y and positive quarterly Retail Sales which may hold the Pound in good form heading towards the Brexit deadline of 31 October. Boris Johnson has written to the EU council’s Tusk to outline his distaste to the Irish border plan. Jeremy Corbyn is staunchly opposed to a “no deal” Brexit and is doing everything he can to stop it from becoming a reality. He plans to call a no confidence vote in the hope of defeating a “no deal” outcome. If he wins this will delay the 31 October exit from the EU when he will call for a snap election and campaign for another referendum. The bearish channel suggests price could continue towards 0.5550 (1.8000) this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5572 (1.7946)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8040)
Support: 0.5545 (1.7850)
Last Months Range: 0.5570-0.5648 (1.7706-1.7954)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross has swung this week between a tight range of 0.5580 (1.7920) and 0.5645 (1.7715) even though it’s been a busy week of economic data for the pair. The focus was Aussie employment with wage price inflation improving to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June as well as an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. UK Retail Sales rose unexpectedly to 0.2% based on predictions of -0.3% highlighting consumers were still spending, the Pound spiked on the release improving 50 points. In Brexit news Corbyn plans to call a no confidence vote in the hope of defeating a “no deal” outcome. If he wins this will delay the 31 October exit from the EU when he will call for a snap election and campaign for another referendum.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5608 GBPAUD 1.7831
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5575- 0.5648 GBPAUD 1.7704- 1.7936

Risk aversion continues to play a part in currency movements this week, the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching a fresh low of 0.5495 (1.8200). The Aussie weirdly followed downside moves by the kiwi after the RBNZ Wednesday dropped their cash rate 50 basis points from 1.50% to 1.0%. I can’t remember this ever happening quite to the degree it did with price shifting over 45 points in sympathy. Volatility this week has been extreme, last night’s high of 0.5620 (1.7795) coming back into play with Johnson telling MP’s to “get on and deliver” Brexit. This comes amid reports a general election could happen within days of the UK leaving the EU on October 31st. MP’s are also working on a counter deal to try to stop Johnson from taking Britain out of the EU after concerns of his hard-line tactics. The RBA announced Tuesday they were keeping the benchmark cash rate at 1.0% with the global outlook remaining questionable and inflation expectations low. This had very little impact on the Aussie dollar movement after the release. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario. UK GDP m/m and Manufacturing figures will release tomorrow morning.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5612 GBPAUD 1.7819
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5493- 0.5618 GBPAUD 1.7797- 1.8205

The English Pound has surged higher off last week’s price of 0.5690 (1.7570) to 0.5570 (1.7950) after reaching 0.5550 (1.8030) Monday versus the Australian Dollar (AUD). Risk aversion is playing a part here after President Trump accused the Chinese of currency manipulation to offset some of the pain inflicted by Trump’s tariffs on incoming Chinese products. UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) printed above market expectations at 51.4 versus 50.4 the index improving for the UK services sector supporting the fastest business growth since October 2018 contributing 80% of GDP to the UK economy. Stockpiling of essentials and companied pre ordering in light of a Brexit was a factor in the pick up. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement (4.30NZT) and monetary policy statement is the main focus this week as investors take upcoming AUD direction tips from Lowe’s comments on further easing.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5582 (1.7915)
Resistance: 0.5695 (1.8030)
Support: 0.5550 (1.7560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5547-0.5694 (1.7562-1.8028)

The English Pound (GBP) outperformed during the overnight trading European session against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing price to 0.5590 (1.7890) before price retraced to 0.5610 (1.7820) The Bank of England left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 0-9 vote. Even with upwardly forecasted inflation and growth forecasts the BoE made it clear they would not be shifting rates anytime soon. If anything was to come out of the monetary statement it was perhaps slightly hawkish. They said they could in fact raise rates on the event of a no Brexit outcome saying “the monetary response to Brexit whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in the other direction. This view comes directly opposing recent analysts predictions. The Bank of England have also set their inflation target at a reasonable 2.0% to help sustain growth and employment. Despite the small spike higher in the Pound over BoE speak let’s not forget the pair is still trading just off the yearly low bringing our attention to the fact the Pound still has a steep road ahead for any significant recovery.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5605 GBPAUD 1.7841
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5591- 0.5674 GBPAUD 1.7623- 1.7885

Overnight weakness in the English Pound (GBP) has seen price move considerably higher off the weekly open of 0.5580 (1.7920) to 0.5645 (1.7712) Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Pound giving back all of last week’s gains in one trading session. Boris Johnson is adamant he will not meet with EU officials to resolve the Brexit standoff unless they drop the Irish backstop from further negotiations. He stated he will do whatever it takes to get Brexit over the line but won’t back down on not removing the backstop. The 2018 EU withdrawal Act suggests a Brexit deal without the backstop is unacceptable. Not sure How BJ is thinking of getting around this. 1.7630 is the yearly high in the pair- I would suggest further weakness in the Pound is almost a given over the next while and this resistance level will be tested. Stay tuned for Thursday’s Bank of England Cash Rate announcement where the current rate of 0.75% will remain in place.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5653 (1.7689)
Resistance: 0.5670 (1.8030)
Support: 0.5550 (1.7630)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5560-0.5659 (1.7671-1.7984)

Boris Johnson is the new Prime Minister of the UK. Pressure has been taken off the English Pound (GBP) for now with a little more certainty entering the picture. The Brexit train wreck however will continue with Johnson speaking last night saying he will work flat out to make a deal with crucial evidence suggesting other arrangements could be possible to fix the Irish Border. He is ready and waiting to discuss a deal with the EU suggesting all ministers are committed to leaving on the 31st October whatever happens. RBA governor Lowe staunchly defended his mandate for a 2-3% inflation target but said rates will stay low for some time leaving chances of further rate cuts to come- data dependant. The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed this week dropping from the open price of 0.5640 (1.7730) to 0.5580 (1.7920) against the Pound (GBP) moving away from recent range bound consolidation action. Price overnight rejected 0.5560 (1.7980) suggesting further downside GBP momentum could continue into next week.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5577 GBPAUD 1.7930
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5560- 0.5659 GBPAUD 1.7670- 1.7984

Choppy, directionless price action has been the dominant feature of the AUDGBP cross over the past week. The pair has bounced between a low of 0.5623 and a high of 0.5672 in what looks suspiciously like a period of consolidation within the longer-term uptrend. Tonight should see the UK confirm Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister, so at least some political uncertainty will be taken off the table. Unfortunately for the Pound Sterling (GBP) the real concerns are around Brexit and it’s far less certain what’s going to happen there. It’s hard to see any meaningful Pound Sterling (GBP) gains until something concrete comes out of potential negations between Boris and his European counterparts. So for now the risks remain toward further strength in the AUDGBP developing over the coming week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5637 (1.7740)
Resistance: 0.5750 (1.7794)
Support: 0.5620 (1.7391)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5620-0.5672 (1.7631-1.7793)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has completely outperformed the Pound Sterling (GBP) over the past week, in a continuation of the trend that has been in place for much of the past two months. The latest gains were sparked by the dovish testimony from US Fed Chair Powell that saw the AUD make gains across most other currencies during the ensuing USD weakness. The Australian dollar than found more support yesterday after some solid Chinese activity data was released. The pair currently trades at the best levels since December 2018, around 0.5625. Today’s RBA minutes will be closely watched as will Thursday’s Australian employment report. On the GBP side of the equation it’s pretty hard to get excited about any potential near term strength in the Pound with so much political and Brexit uncertainty about. For the time being, the risks remain skewed toward further gains in the AUDGBP. A move toward 0.5750 over the coming weeks can’t be ruled out.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5623 (1.7785)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.8100)
Support: 0.5525 (1.7300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5544-0.5629 (1.7766-1.8038)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost a little ground to the UK Pound (GBP) this week, driven lower by declining Australian consumer sentiment and business confidence. The being said, the longer term trend is certainly in the Australian dollars favour and this weeks price action has done little to dent that. We may well just be in a period of consolidation within that longer term bullish trend. Any move back above 0.5602 would be a positive sign and the focus would then shift to resistance around 0.5675. On the downside there is support around 0.5525 and as long as the market holds above that level the risks remain skewed toward further gains for the pair.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5566 GBPAUD 1.7966
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5543 – 0.5599 GBPAUD 1.7860 – 1.8040

The Australian dollar (AUD) as completely outperformed the UK Pound (GBP) over recent weeks and while the gains seem to have stalled since late last week, we think this is a temporary period of consolidation. With disappointing UK data signalling a potential economic slowdown in the months ahead, along with the current political and Brexit uncertainty, the risk are all skewed toward further AUDGBP gains. Any break above 0.5600 would be a bullish signal and the focus would then turn to resistance around 0.5780, which is a viable target over the coming month or two.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5568 (1.7961)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8051)
Support: 0.5540 (1.7857)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5507-0.5601 (1.7853-1.8158)

The Australian Dollar has outperformed the British Pound this week with price travelling to 0.5600 (1.7880). The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate for the second straight month from 1.25% to 1.0% Wednesday. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Australian Building Approvals along with Trade Balance have boosted the Aussie, the building industry remains stable for now. If risk sentiment stays upbeat, we may see a retest of the mid January 2019 low of 0.5680 (1.7600) enter play.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5583 GBPAUD 1.7911
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5503- 0.5601 GBPAUD 1.7853- 1.8171

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced lower off the multi week high of 0.5540 (1.8050) during the overnight sessions against the British Pound (GBP) trading back to 0.5510 (1.8150). Consensus suggests the RBA will deliver a dovish statement and cut their cash rate from 1.25% to 1.0% today at 4.30 NZT. The Reserve Bank of Australia look ready to deliver back to back cuts as they have recently signalled that easing policy will be needed to boost economic growth. Inflation dropped from 1.8% to an alarming 1.3.% in April and unemployment is starting to rise. However, the initial analysis on perceived further cuts was that the RBA would cut in August because the data wasn’t weak enough, this was said only a few days ago. Traditionally if this is anything to go off, the RBA has gone two moves- 3 months apart, if they stick to this we will see rates unchanged today. Price could go anywhere on the RBA announcement today. Buyers of GBP should consider at these levels and should consider locking in some exposure prior to today’s RBA. AUD Retail Sales releases Friday.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5513 (1.8139)
Resistance: 0.5540 (1.8215)
Support: 0.5490 (1.8050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5445-0.5543 (1.8041-1.8365)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced sharply higher off the weekly open to gain back support pushing through heavy resistance of 0.5520 (1.8120), the 4 June level, to post 0.5535 (1.8075) Friday lunch. Apart from Lowe’s comments Monday saying global risks has slowed with further risks skewed to the downside, it has been a fairly quiet week for data. Carney has been on the wires talking about a no deal Brexit scenario and the outcome in such an event, this has played on the GBP a tad with it falling away further overnight during the London trading session. Strong commodity prices have also held up the Aussie with Iron Ore reaching 109.00 per ton Thursday. Expect markets to turn risk averse once the G20 kicks off tonight.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5524 GBPAUD 1.8102
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5439- 0.5537 GBPAUD 1.8060- 1.8384

The British Pound (GBP) dropped on the Monday open to 0.5475 (1.8260) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Lowe spoke Monday and continued to highlight global risks and rate cut forecasts. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously 9-0 to maintain the cash rate at 0.75% in efforts to try and achieve their 2.0% inflation target with this helping to sustain growth and employment. Now that it’s been established who will face off in a bid to become the UK’s next Prime Minister we may see further buying in risk assets such as the AUD, the currency holding up recently on dips and could retest 0.5500 (1.8200) this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5463 (1.8305)
Resistance: 0.5490 (1.8420)
Support: 0.5430 (1.8220)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5427-0.5489 (0.5427-0.5489)

The British Pound trades just shy of the weekly open at 0.5450 (1.8345) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) with volatility bouncing around the cross this week. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously 9-0 to maintain the cash rate at 0.75% in efforts to try and achieve their 2.0% inflation target with this helping to sustain growth and employment. Interestingly the BoE are the only central bank who are ignoring dropping global growth messages to cut as others are considering or have already cut. Its officially a two horse race for the next UK Prime Minister with just Johnson and Hunt fight it out. We think the Pound is still struggling, especially with renewed concerns of prospects for a hard Brexit with Johnson in charge. A retest of the prior high of 0.5520 (1.8120) is foreseeable before GBP gathers any pace.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5448 GBPAUD 1.8355
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5428- 0.5488 GBPAUD 1.8219- 1.8422

Momentum in the British Pound (GBP) over the past week has ground to a halt around 0.5440 (1.8380) with a fresh wave of selling overnight. The Australian Dollar and other crosses has an edge with the Pound under significant selling pressures. The Pound may come under further attacks and fail to find support based on a market which is preparing for the potential of a “no deal” brexit scenario on 31 October. Brexit uncertainty continues to fester in the background to the detriment of the Pound as Britain continues the process of choosing a new conservative leader. Johnson is well ahead of his nearest rival after the first set of voting and should cement his favoritism as the preferred Prime Minister tonight as the second round of voting takes place. Today’s RBA minutes ahead of Thursday’s (BoE) cash rate release hold key interest this week. Sellers of GBP should consider current levels around 0.5470 (1.8290) with uncertainty in the air things could get much worse in England.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5467 (1.8291)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8390)
Support: 0.5440 (1.8110)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5439-0.5491 (1.8210-1.8385)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced off 0.5520 (1.8115) resistance against the British Pound over the past few days tracking back to 0.5485 (1.8230) Tuesday. Movement has been somewhat choppy Monday with Australia taking the day off to celebrate the Queen’s birthday. Last night’s GDP m/m published poor at -0.4% based on predictions of -0.1% showing weakening growth. Manufacturing Production also disappointed at -3.9% versus -1.1%, this is the largest fall since 2002 with motor vehicles leading the decline in numbers.
Overnight the UK Conservative Party have announced their 9 candidates to replace Theresa May with a new Prime Minister to be picked by July 22nd. The first vote will take place on the 13th June. The candidate with the least amount of support and any candidate with less than 5% or 16 votes will also be eliminated. June 18 will be second vote followed by a third on the 19th June and a fourth on the 20th June. This will take the total candidates to two. At this point voting my parliamentary members will start. This week’s Aussie employment change and unemployment rate will be the weekly focus with growth expected. This is a key indicator of whether the economy is on track to meet inflation targets.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5488 (1.8221)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8300)
Support: 0.5465 (1.8115)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5474-0.5519 (1.8119-1.8268)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced off 0.5520 (1.8115) resistance against the British Pound over the past few days tracking back to 0.5485 (1.8230) Tuesday. Movement has been somewhat choppy Monday with Australia taking the day off to celebrate the Queen’s birthday. Last night’s GDP m/m published poor at -0.4% based on predictions of -0.1% showing weakening growth. Manufacturing Production also disappointed at -3.9% versus -1.1%, this is the largest fall since 2002 with motor vehicles leading the decline in numbers.
Overnight the UK Conservative Party have announced their 9 candidates to replace Theresa May with a new Prime Minister to be picked by July 22nd. The first vote will take place on the 13th June. The candidate with the least amount of support and any candidate with less than 5% or 16 votes will also be eliminated. June 18 will be second vote followed by a third on the 19th June and a fourth on the 20th June. This will take the total candidates to two. At this point voting my parliamentary members will start. This week’s Aussie employment change and unemployment rate will be the weekly focus with growth expected. This is a key indicator of whether the economy is on track to meet inflation targets.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5488 (1.8221)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8300)
Support: 0.5465 (1.8115)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5474-0.5519 (1.8119-1.8268)

The weaker AUD tone has seen the Aussie weaken against this cross over the last few days from a high of 0.5508 to a low of 0.5481, currently back at 0.5491 With Iron ore prices continuing to hold at higher levels the AUD will get some support and against the very uncertain Brexit developments , we favour the AUD on this cross ..a break of 0.5500 would initially target 0.5530.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5490 GBPAUD 1.8250
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 1.8116- 1.8245 GBPAUD 0.5480- 0.5520

The Australian dollar has outperformed the UK Pound (GBP) this week, driving the pair to a high so far of 0.5483 (low of 1.8237). The move has come on the back of GBP weakness as political turmoil in the UK weighs on the currency. The AUD on the other hand has been holding its ground reasonably well in the face of a potential RBA interest rate cut next week. That likelihood is now largely priced into the market, so while we will get some volatility around the release, we are not convinced that the AUD will sustain any major moves to the downside in the wake of a central bank interest rate cut. Iron ore prices also continue to look strong and that should help to provide support to the AUD on any potential dips. For the time being we suspect the risks remaining toward AUD outperformance of the GBP, and therefore a higher AUDGBP cross rate.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5780 GBPAUD 1.8248
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5439- 0.5488 GBPAUD 1.8220- 1.8384

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its push higher against the British Pound (GBP) to a fresh four week high of 0.5460 (1.8320) UK Inflation published at 2.1% after 2.2% was predicted but this ends a three month period of inflation below the target 2.0%. The pickup from 1.9% was based on the government lifting the cap on energy caps with electricity rising 10%. Theresa May will stay in office until the 7th June when a replacement will be voted in starting on the 10th June. UK’s Hammond said the house of commons was strongly against leaving the EU without a deal. This week’s data focus is on Aussie Building Approvals for April and q/q Private Capital Expenditure a leading indicator of spending by private businesses a leading indicator of economic health.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5460 (1.8315)
Resistance: 0.5470 (1.8440)
Support: 0.5420 (1.8290)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5371-0.5465 (1.8297-1.8616)

The British Pound (GBP) sank lower throughout the week to 0.5450 (1.8350) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the Brexit roller coaster lingered. Brexit concerns have weighed on the Pound again with the two main parties failing to find a common ground with which to move forward. May’s imminent departure seems real now with an announcement to be made later today. The PM is expected to agree with the Tory MP’s that a new contest for leadership will begin on the 10th of June. May has been under enormous pressure following the backlash from her own MP’s following her “new deal” Brexit plan. UK yearly CPI came in at 2.1% down on the 2.2% expected with upward pressures on auto fuel prices as well as the govt lifting the government cap on default energy tariffs. The RBA minutes Tuesday reflected weak inflationary pressures, the RBA finally realising after poor recent employment data the economy is slowing. This in turn should see a cut to the cash rate at the June 4 meeting with possibly another cut to follow later in the year. UK Retail Sales prints tonight.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5438 GBPAUD 1.8389
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5372- 0.5458 GBPAUD 1.8320- 1.8615

Against all odds the AUD continues to hold firm on this cross as the GBP continues to get slammed by the ongoing Brexit train wreck…Has opened the week gapping higher after the unexpected Aussie election result at 0.5417 and is now trading around 0.5430…Looks solid but any change in RBA outlook on earlier rate cuts will put pressure back on AUD even with Brexit woes for the GBP…however with 0.5400 broken a push towards the 0.5450 mark now looks possible.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5434 (1.8402)
Resistance: 0.5465 (1.8700)
Support: 0.5350 (1.8300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5343-0.5405 (1.8500-1.8715)

With the Brexit political chaos continuing in the UK, the AUD has outperformed on this cross (about the only one !) over the week from a low of 0.5344 to a 0.5405 high…now sitting around 0.5386 should hold around current levels ahead of the election , with any clear majority result for either party being AUD supportive next week, but attention will then shift to RBA rate cut potential…given continued UK political turmoil , look for another test of the 0.5400 level.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5384 GBPAUD 1.8573
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5343 – 0.5404 GBPAUD 1.8504 – 1.8716

Despite UK Manufacturing and Business Investment readings releasing higher than expectations, the British Pound (GBP) peeled off against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week from a low of 0.5300 (1.8870) to 0.5383 (1.8577) at the close. Even a risk of market mood couldn’t help the Pound regain some of the previous few weeks gains. Overnight the Pound took a turn for the worse, May’s Brexit deal is under siege once again with Tory leadership Johnson and Raab under pressure from the party to veto any further vote. A cross party arrangement looks increasingly unlikely. UK employment and quarterly wage index releases tomorrow with Aussie jobs figures also on the calendar Thursday. The Australian economy needs strong jobs growth to maintain inflation targets if we see the number’s lower we could see a shift in monetary policy from the RBA and a rate cut sooner rather than later.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5364 (1.8642)
Resistance: 0.5395 (1.8870)
Support: 0.5300 (1.8540)
Last Weeks range: 0.5324-0.5396 (1.8533-1.8783)

Initially the British Pound (GBP) had the edge over the Australian Dollar (AUD) with price reaching 0.5300 (1.8870) early in the week but after the RBA cash rate announcement the Aussie rallied to 0.5370 (1.8620) where it currently resides. Australian Federal Elections are 8 days away with polls slightly swayed in the direction of Labor winning 77 seats over the Coalition’s 68. The RBA left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.5% during the week in what was billed as the most exciting for two and a half years, Lowe playing it safe for now in his neutral statement. Downside bias still remains for the economy over the coming months but a wait and see approach with jobs numbers and a pick up in inflation is crucial for the economy. We think a cut will take place later in the year. UK q/q GDP is tonight and is expected to show a pickup in growth for the first quarter of 2019. This could move the pair back to retest the early week low of 0.5300 (1.8870).

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5385 GBPAUD 1.8570
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5296- 0.5396 GBPAUD 1.8530- 1.8880

The British Pound (GBP) remains in favour over the underperforming Australian Dollar (AUD) with price briefly reaching 0.5300 (1.8880) Monday, on renewed risk off trade tension fears. This is as low as the Aussie Dollar has traded since the day of the Brexit referendum on 24th June 2016. With Brexit uncertainty fading into the background we have seen the Pound appreciate off a low of 0.5520 (1.8120) mid-April, adding in better than predicted UK economic data including improved PMI and overall we have seen improved demand in GBP. The Bank of England (BoE) kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% setting monetary policy at a 2% inflation target, rising through 2021. Tomorrow the RBA will announce their new cash rate with chances at 50/50 for a cut. We think they will leave the rate at 1.50% with unemployment stable and consumer confidence improving. The biggest factor could be the weighting on the first quarter CPI dropping materially to 1.3% well below the 2.0% range forecasted. Transferring GBP to AUD at these levels should be considered.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level:0.5335 (1.8744)
Resistance: 0.5365 (1.8890)
Support:0.5395 (1.8640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5296-0.5525 (1.8099-1.8881)

The British Pound (GBP) continues to have the edge over the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the past two weeks extending to 0.5370 (1.8620) Friday. The Bank of England (BoE) kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% overnight in a unanimous decision of 0-9. The bank have set monetary policy at a 2% inflation target and rising through 2021. In a revised positive set of forecasts investors will be upgrading expectations for growth. Carney said unemployment will fall further with the economy expected to generate more demand. He also went on to say the timing around Brexit now late October would have volatile results for economic data and how it concludes will be the biggest factor weighing on outlook. Aussie Building Approvals today marks a key release for the economy and could influence the RBA rate decision next Tuesday. It’s a coin toss on whether the RBA will cut rates. We expect a possible retest of the yearly low of 0.5305 (1.8850) in the medium term.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5365 GBPAUD 1.8639
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.53490- 0.5464 GBPAUD 1.8300- 1.8694

Australian CPI q/q printed down at 0.0% from 0.2% markets were expecting last Wednesday, depreciating the Aussie Dollar across the board on the announcement. The British Pound (GBP) picked up buyers retracing earlier losses to 0.5420 (1.8450). Speculation of a possible Theresa May leadership challenge challenged the Pound late in the week as it was back under selling pressures, price moving back to 0.5455 (1.8330) where the week closed. The Bank of England (BoE) will announce their official cash rate and monetary policy Thursday with Aussie Building Approvals Friday to give us a better look at the overall housing situation based on construction activity.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5448 (1.8355
Resistance: 0.5465 (1.8450)
Support: 0.5420 (1.8300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5374-0.5525 (1.8099-1.8609)

It’s been a choppy 24 hours for this pair with the AUD/GBP cross rate falling to an overnight low of 0.5464 (1.8301) before recovering sharply back to 0.5496 (1.8196). Australian dollar (AUD) pressure drove the first leg of the move down, but then talk of a leadership challenge in the UK saw the Pound Sterling (GBP) itself come under heavy selling pressure and that drove the recover in the cross. The market now awaits Australian inflation data out in the coming hour. That result will likely set the tone for the rest of the week. Forecasts are for a 0.4% result, unchanged from prior.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5484 (1.8236)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8519)
Support: 0.5400 (1.7857)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5464-0.5525 (1.8099-1.8301)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed passed recent resistance around 0.5470 (1.8280) this week to post a fresh 21 February high of 0.5500 (1.8180) against the British Pound (GBP). This retains our bullish theme from the mid-March low of 0.5310 (1.8840). Brexit news (hallelujah) has taken a backseat to data this week as negotiations have reached a stalemate between the parties to agree on a final Brexit deal. UK Job’s data highlighted robust employment growth with the unemployment at 3.90%- this is the lowest it has been since November 1974. The number of people who claim an unemployment benefit now outweighs the number of jobs available. Analysts are not expecting the jobs growth to impact on the (BoE) Bank of England to hike rates this year. Tomorrow sees Aussie jobs results for March with UK Retail Sales in the evening.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5491 (1.8211)
Resistance: 0.5505 (1.8228)
Support: 0.5455 (1.8174)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5425-0.5491 (1.8211-1.8432)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded to a fresh seven week high of 0.5485 (1.8230) against the British Pound (GBP) keeping intact its bullish theme from the mid March low of 0.5310 (1.8840) British monthly GDP printed at 0.2% bang on expectations and manufacturing came in higher at 0.9% from 0.2% we were predicting but never featured in price movement instead markets focused on Brexit. The UK won’t bow out of the EU today (12 April) in a haze of smoke instead, an extension to 31 October has been formally agreed. With nothing still negotiated and Theresa May unable to get any support for her deal she will keep her head up and push on- for how long is anyone’s guess. Tensions are running high in Westminster as levels of anxiety, anger and frustration after a long historic period of negotiating where nothing has concluded. A cross party compromise is sought to resolve differences in policy but now that they have 6 months to ponder what next MP’s will take a breather.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5457 GBPAUD 1.8325
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5425- 0.5483 GBPAUD 1.8238- 1.8432

Over the last four week or so we have seen a gradual and subtle shift in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair. From the low of 0.5305 (1.8850) the Aussie has maintained an edge over the GBP as it looks to break higher through 0.5465 (1.8300). Aussie data of late has supported price movement back towards early January levels. Price movement through the 50 days moving average confirms momentum is firmly with the AUD. Theresa May believes she is on the brink of a breakthrough with Labour MP’s with further talks about to kick off again. She will fly to Paris and Berlin before the emergency European summit on Wednesday to make a new case for extending article 50 for just a few more months. Data this week consists of UK GDP m/m and Manufacturing Production Wednesday, but first – Westpac Consumer Sentiment which has the potential to move price as it did during the poor release on 13 March.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5447 (1.8358)
Resistance: 0.5475 (1.8540)
Support: 0.5395 (1.8270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5373-0.5465 (1.8298-1.8610)

Another turbulent week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound pair has seen price move off the early high of 0.5473 (1.8270) to 0.5375 (1.8600) levels and back to trade Friday around 0.5440 (1.8380) The British Pound lost ground overnight as traders pondered the Brexit process for answers. By the narrowest of margins- 313 votes to 312 UK legislation was passed in favour of the UK government to request an extension to the Brexit rollercoaster. The bill will ensure the UK won’t crash out of the EU without a deal being agreed on. Finally some progress although it will be the ultimate decision of the EU to grant any extension. Also putting the GBP under pressure during Thursday’s European and NY trading sessions was March PMI – Purchasers Managers Index printed down at 48.9 based on expectations of 51.0 signalling a reduction in business activity across the service sector. Adding to the mix a Buoyant Australian Retail Sales figure printing much higher than expectations, we could see a retest of the 0.5475 (1.8270) area- the six week high.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5440 GBPAUD 1.8382
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5373- 0.5472 GBPAUD 1.8272- 1.8610

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded off the five week high of 0.5340 (1.8720) Monday against the British Pound as buyers bid back the Pound. Brexit is still a complete shambles but a little overnight strength in the GBP has seen it return to 0.5423 (1.8440) taking back last week’s losses. Parliament MP’s will again vote on four Brexit options in the second round of indicative voting as the British are still split down the middle and try to find a way out of the political deadlock. UK Manufacturing released up on expectations of 51.2 to 55.1 as stockpiling ahead of a possible no deal Brexit sent the sector to a 13 month high for March. An extremely choppy five week period of uncertainty in the pair should continue for a while with Brexit appearing to show no clear picture. With price around current levels we still think its good selling of Pounds with price tracking lower from the December high of 0.5815 (1.7200)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5441 (1.8378)
Resistance: 0.5475 (1.8670)
Support: 0.5355 (1.8270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5339-0.5472 (1.8274-1.8731)

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