EUR

Resistance around 0.4760 (2.1000) held early week for the British Pound (GBP) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) diving to 0.4710 (2.1240) Thursday amid a market “risk off” tone before reversing all the way back to 0.4750 (2.1060). With no tier one data publishing in the cross moves have been dominated by geopolitical flows following Iran’s attack on Israel. NZ ANZ Business Confidence jumped in September with optimism improving over the last few months. Next week’s RBNZ meeting should see a cut of 50 points to 4.75%, while most of this could already be priced into the cross we could still get a drop in the NZD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4735 GBPNZD 2.1119

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4706- 0.4761 GBPNZD 2.1000- 2.1249

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen out of bed this week against the US Dollar (USD) posting numbers around low 0.62’s this morning. At the start of the week the cross actually rose reaching 0.6380 before dropping on geopolitical uncertainty. Attention shifts today to the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release and unemployment rate. If the report shows a weaker than predicted outcome we could see the Federal Reserve (Fed) consider cutting rates deeper in the coming months putting big pressure on the greenback. The kiwi may be relief around 0.6200 with strong support seen on the chart.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6216

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6206- 0.6378

As we predicted the Australian Dollar (AUD) has held up well against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) moving well outside recent ranges around 0.9140 (1.0940) and 0.9215 (1.0850) to clock 0.9070 (1.1025) in morning trade. Central bank divergence evident with the RBA suggesting no cuts until early 2025 while the RBNZ now forecast 2 cuts of 50 points on October 9th and again in November. Australian Retail Sales boosted the Aussie when figures for August published at 0.7% vs 0.4% expected. We predict now is the time we could see cross fall deep into the 80’s. Next week’s potential RBNZ cut to 4.75% won’t help the kiwi.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9080 AUDNZD 1.1007

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9071- 0.9201 AUDNZD 1.0868- 1.1023

French budget woes and softer German prelim CPI m/m have both contributed to the Euro (EUR) demise over the past few days against the Australian Dollar (AUD) sending prices in the cross to 0.6220 (1.6080) in morning trade. A retest and break above 0.6250 (1.6000) the 2024 high would signal further upside for the AUD. With the RBA holding tight on easing policy until next year we could certainly see more of the same.

Current Level: 1.6108
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6116- 1.6402

French budget woes and softer German prelim CPI m/m have both contributed to the Euro (EUR) demise over the past few days against the Australian Dollar (AUD) sending prices in the cross to 0.6220 (1.6080) in morning trade. A retest and break above 0.6250 (1.6000) the 2024 high would signal further upside for the AUD. With the RBA holding tight on easing policy until next year we could certainly see more of the same.

Current Level: 0.6208
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6096- 0.6205

Last week’s Australian inflation read came in at 2.7% y/y as markets were predicting sending the AUD higher against the British Pound (GBP) to close the week circa 0.5165 (1.9360) levels. Its still not enough for the RBA to consider cutting rates just yet, what’s interesting in the CPI number is a drop of -17% in electricity based on the govt providing rebates. So, the CPI number could end up rising back above 3.0% once the rebates have finished at the end of 2025. The AUD climbed to 0.5185 (1.9285) resistance early this morning before dropping back to 0.5170 (1.9350)

Current Level: 1.9346
Resistance: 1.9250
Support: 1.9270
Last Weeks Range: 1.9324- 1.9570

The bull run from 0.5550 (1.8015) mid-September levels continued into Monday in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair, the EUR under pressure for the third week straight with price clocking 0.5720 (1.7485) this morning. French’s debt rose to 112% of GDP in the second quarter the govt extremely concerned about the mounting debt. Add in poor Germin prelim CPI and falling Spanish CPI y/y and its not hard to see why the EUR has been underperforming.

Current Level: 1.7568
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7400
Last Weeks Range: 1.7557 – 1.7909

The bull run from 0.5550 (1.8015) mid-September levels continued into Monday in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair, the EUR under pressure for the third week straight with price clocking 0.5720 (1.7485) this morning. French’s debt rose to 112% of GDP in the second quarter the govt extremely concerned about the mounting debt. Add in poor Germin prelim CPI and falling Spanish CPI y/y and its not hard to see why the EUR has been underperforming.

Current Level: 0.5692
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5583- 0.5695

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to improve to 0.4750 (2.1060) today against the British Pound (GBP) the second week running amid volatile swings we have seen the kiwi favoured. BoE’s Greene said earlier it will be “steady as she goes” approach to easing monetary policy who voted against cutting rates at the August meeting. Setbacks in the GBP look to be well supported around 0.4760 (2.1000) the top of the long-term bear channel. It’s a thin week of data releases with just UK PMI construction due Friday.

Current Level: 2.1101
Resistance: 2.1450
Support: 2.0970
Last Weeks Range: 2.1057- 2.1362

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to improve to 0.4750 (2.1060) today against the British Pound (GBP) the second week running amid volatile swings we have seen the kiwi favoured. BoE’s Greene said earlier it will be “steady as she goes” approach to easing monetary policy who voted against cutting rates at the August meeting. Setbacks in the GBP look to be well supported around 0.4760 (2.1000) the top of the long-term bear channel. It’s a thin week of data releases with just UK PMI construction due Friday.

Current Level: 0.4739
Resistance: 0.4770
Support: 0.4660
Last Weeks Range: 0.4681- 0.4749