NZD to USD – US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar
When converting NZD to USD, or United States dollars to New Zealand dollars (USD to NZD), with Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD/USD currency conversion rates.
NZD to USD Overview: The US is New Zealand’s second largest export market and third in import terms. This had made the NZD to USD exchange rate a focus of our money transfer team for many years. The NZD/USD exchange rate can be volatile at times, especially during peaks and troughs of the cash rate cycles. The NZD is considered a “growth” currency, and the USD a “safe haven” currency. Our team will help you interpret market conditions when you make your currency transfer.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|NZD/USD||.6424 – .7556||.6225 – .8834||.4893 – .8841|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 0.25% US Federal Reserve (FED): 0% to 0.25%
We provide insight into the NZ Dollar and US Dollar (NZD/USD) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair continues to “mix it up” within recent ranges, spiking to a high late Friday of 0.7020 before closing around the 0.6970 mark. Risk sentiment has been low with the pandemic which won’t go away. Numbers around the world have ticked up in many countries affecting the outlook for the global economy. The highly contagious delta variant is driving a coronavirus surge with the US reporting over 100,000 new cases Friday. NZ employment data releases tomorrow with the unemployment rate predicted to click down from June’s 4.7%. Later in the week US Non-Farm Payroll releases with fears the Federal Reserve may announce a slowdown of their massive asset purchases starting this month. Powell recently said however he needed to see a pick up in the labour market to signal a proper recovery. The kiwi eyes the fortnight high of 0.7020
Current Level: 0.6986
Last Weeks Range: 0.6915-0.7020
No New Zealand tier one data this week has made sure directional cues have come from the US Dollar (USD) and Fed speak. The US Federal Reserve chairman Powell was dovish during the week in his statement saying they would retain their current bond buying program amid soaring coronavirus cases and an economy which is struggling to reach full employment. The economic signs are not quite good enough to warrant a start to tapering their asset buying program. The greenback was sold off post Fed giving room for equity markets to regather early week losses which in turn rallied the kiwi back over 0.7000 overnight to reach 0.7420. After 4 weeks of declines for the NZD the push higher was welcomed by buyers of USD. However, let’s not get overly confident, the bearish channel from 0.7320 is still in play. A break above 0.7050 could signal further upside for the NZD, the Fibonacci hot zone.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7000
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6900- 0.7018
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed off midweek lows against the US Dollar (USD) from the 0.6880 area to close around 0.6980 as broad risk improved. US Unemployment claims for the previous week came in light at 419k over 350k putting pressure on the big dollar an increase of 50k on the week before denting hopes of a quick economic recovery. Monday’s risk mood improved with equities posting gains, the kiwi nudged to 0.7000 into Tuesday trading. This week’s much anticipated Federal Funds Rate and Monetary Policy meeting and later GDP publication should ensure plenty of excitement. Will Fed Reserve Powell go down the same line and highlight recent rhetoric that inflationary pressures are indeed transitory or will he change his stance. He has already spoken about how they are a long way off full employment – 6M lower than before the pandemic so it could be business as usual for a while. We certainly predict the kiwi to remain buoyant this week and kick on from around the 0.7000 key zone.
Current Level: 0.6997
Last Weeks Range: 0.6882-0.7009
In the absence of significant economic data this week, broad swings in risk sentiment have been the main driver of the New Zealand dollar (NZD), United State dollar (USD) paring. The NZD traded to yearly lows of 0.6885 midweek as US stocks sank weighing on risk sentiment. But in recent days the pair has recovered off those lows in line with US stocks. Thankfully that dip below 0.6900 in the NZD/USD was short lived as there is very little in the way of support below 0.6900 until we hit the 0.6800 area. The pair is now comfortably higher, trading around the 0.6970 level, but the downside risk has not completely abated. We would need to see a move above 0.7000 to be confident a medium term low has been put in place. Until then, further dips cannot be ruled out. We would however suggest such dips present a good buying opportunity for those clients looking to convert USD to NZD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6973
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6885 – 0.7003
With a combination of coronavirus worries, Fed yield differentials and equities sliding off highs we have seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tank south from the weekly open around 0.7000 to 0.6930 into Tuesday sessions. In heavy “risk off” sentiment equity markets dipped overnight by more than 2% as markets start to digest the true implications of the economic strains the new delta virus is putting on economies. Posting a new yearly low aat 0.6915 the kiwi is being forced on the back foot by general negative sentiment stemming from the Fed’s stance on policy. The 10 year yield also dropped to 1.18% as markets prefered the flight to safety USD. Looking at the calendar we have the usual US unemployment claims Friday and not much else. Big picture risk themes should dominate movement this week in the pair, however we do expect the kiwi to strengthen at some stage from its oversold position in the mid 0.69’s
Current Level: 0.6918
Last Weeks Range: 0.6916-0.7044
With a full calendar of data events this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar has traded to all corners. Hitting a low earlier in the week at 0.6915 before recovering back above 0.7000. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged as expected at 0.25% Wednesday but brought forward their stance on hikes, pricing in an increase in the August or November meeting. All of the 4 major banks have accordingly priced in a 0.25% price hike from next month as the RBNZ said they would end its bond buying purchases by July 23rd. This morning’s CPI release published at 1.3% vs 0.7% predicted for the June quarter and 3.3% year on year from 1.5% in the previous quarter. This is a massive number and the biggest rise in a decade. The chances of a hike at next month’s meeting has to be close to 100%. It’s baffling as to what fundamental forces are holding the kiwi back. It should be trading well over 72 cents.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7006
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6916- 0.7044
With banks now predicting the RBNZ next week will forecast interest rate hikes from November this year, we expected the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to be better bid this week against the US Dollar (USD) but markets had another idea. After reaching 0.7100 in early week trading the kiwi was unable to hold this level sliding back to 0.6940 narrowly avoiding the yearly low at 0.6920. ISM Manufacturing came in light at 60.1 vs 63.4 but make no mistake this is still a very good result for May at slightly lower than the all-time high reading at 64.00 indicating significant growth in the sector. US Jobs data also printed light at 373k people filing for the unemployment benefit a little over the predicted 345k number. Looking ahead we have the RBNZ rate announcement and policy statement Wednesday with predictions that the central bank will be forced to hike rates towards the end of the year to combat inflationary pressures. We don’t expect the kiwi to extend below long term support around 0.6920 and a recovery of sorts back over 0.7000 in the coming days
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6942
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6932- 0.7104
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came off the low at 0.6950 against the US Dollar (USD) late last week pushing back to over the magical 0.7000 mark by late trading to close at 0.7030. US Non Farm Payroll beat expectations coming in at 850,000 compared to the 725,000 predicted creating a surge in equity markets and ultimately weakening the US Dollar. US unemployment went higher in June to 5.9% from May’s 5.8% missing the mark expected at 5.6%. The release led to a heavy sell off in the US Dollar as markets concluded the data wasn’t quite good enough for the Fed to start tapering their QE relief program just yet. Monday’s trading was thin as US markets took leave on US 4th of July celebrations. The kiwi remained solid around 0.7015 early Tuesday before headline NZ Business Confidence printed at 7.0% from -13.0% previous. This drew banks such as ASB to release an updated forecast on cash rates predictions, they suggest the RBNZ will now hike rates starting from this November 2021- far sooner. This will almost certainly push the NZD higher over the coming months.
Current Level: 0.7052
Last Weeks Range: 0.6948-0.7064
After a great last week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 0.6930 levels against the US Dollar (USD) closing around 0.7060, this week has not been as kind to the kiwi as it eased back to 0.6960 losing all momentum. Fed repricing and expectations of tapering have weighed on all currencies against the big dollar with strength in the greenback the main driver of weakness in the pair. Economic data also on the US front has helped out of late with a bunch of publications beating out expectations. ISM Manufacturing Prices Index came in at 92.1 confirming the sector is struggling to keep up with demand for new orders. Weekly unemployment claims also printed lower at 364,000 – the number of people filing for unemployment, lower than the 388,000 expected. Tomorrow morning’s US Non-Farm Payroll release and Unemployment read should add volatility to their pair especially since expectations are for a below consensus print. The US Dollar strength won’t continue long, we predict a return through 0.7000 as we near a key support zone at 0.6940.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6959
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6957- 0.7084
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) looks settled over the key 0.7000 mark against the US Dollar (USD) this week after returning from 0.6930 earlier last week. Fed rhetoric is still the main driver of currencies at the moment with the Fed expected to speak again later in the week on tapering their QE emergency program in light of increasing inflation. The US Dollar is trying to make another bid to the topside with predictions the Fed will need to confirm a clearer forecast going forward. Meanwhile US Unemployment Claims and Consumer Sentiment Friday came in light, dragging the NZD a little lower after 411,000 filed for unemployment compared to 382,000 expected. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) releases Friday and with a lot hanging in the balance. It could determine where investors position over the next cycle based on if the Fed keeps going with the run of “cheap money” or actually starts to taper. The kiwi may continue to be dragged lower through to NFP.
Current Level: 0.7032
Last Weeks Range: 0.6995-0.7095
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has ground out a fairly solid week of performance against the US Dollar (USD) recovering from the weekend level of 0.6930 back to 0.7065 into Friday. US Equity indices have gained 3 days straight with the S&P tracking to close at a record high confirming markets were back buying risk assets and currencies. US Fed officials backtracked on earlier taper talk midweek, Fed member Williams said US inflation will be back at 2.0% by the end of next year and in 2024. Record numbers of new job openings are being seen as businesses struggle to keep pace with recent product demands. Meanwhile president Bidens has agreed to a Bipartisan Infrastructure plan which will increase federal spending by nearly 600B which will be used to build roads, broadband internet and electric utilities. The kiwi should continue to strengthen heading into the weekly close as long as risk sentiment stays strong.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7068
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6926- 0.7068
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued to retreat against the superior US Dollar (USD) Friday to close the week around 2 cents lower around 0.6920 levels. It made short work of staunch support at 0.6950 as the kiwi broke into new late November 2020 levels. Markets have been focused on the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy shift and talk of tapering their massive QE program. Interest rates are said to be hiked possibly twice in 2023 based on super high inflation of late the main driver. Monday’s markets had had enough selling of the NZD with risk returning and the kiwi pulling back losses to 0.6995 late morning Tuesday with equity indices all closing higher and commodity markets returning from 5%-10% recent declines. It looks to us that markets post Fed have got ahead of themselves a tad, the USD bull run perhaps unsustainable long term. The NZD/USD belongs at home, over 0.7000 which is possibly what it has in mind.
Current Level: 0.6978
Last Weeks Range: 0.6923-0.7158
Markets started the week off quietly, though until Wednesday things were reasonably uneventful. US Producer Price Index increased by 0.8% in May, the largest rise since November 2010. The news saw investors pile into the US Dollar to kick off the start of a decent New Zealand Dollar (NZD) decline. From 0.7130 price dropped to 0.7060 helped by a hawkish Fed Thursday morning. The Fed saying they will be talking of tapering their massive QE program in the July meeting, possibly bringing this back from 2024 to 2023 after record CPI print of 5.0% recently. NZ GDP q/q published at 1.6% or 2.4% y/y giving relief to the NZD back to 0.7100 before another bout of USD buying in the overnight NY session took the kiwi to a fresh 10 week low of 0.6990. When the dust settles we should see profit taking of short NZD positions and a little more spice in the kiwi, currently the cross is trading just above 0.7000.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7009
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6991- 0.7160
Twas a quiet start to the week with Queen’s Birthday holiday locally, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edging to 0.7240 before falling back early Tuesday to 0.7180. Risk mood deteriorated overnight with equities posting small losses and commodity markets struggling. Earlier US Non-Farm Payroll printed worse than expected at 559,000 instead of 645,000 improving on the earlier week’s result but still way off the mark weakening the US Dollar and sending the kiwi higher to 0.7200 at the close. Of note the US Unemployment rate clicked lower to 5.8% from 5.9%. Coming up on Calendar is May CPI in the US Friday with another prediction below 1.0% at 0.8% well below the “real” inflation figures which no-one talks about. We think the NZD/USD should hold above 0.7130 support level into the close.
Current Level: 0.7200
Last Weeks Range: 0.7126-0.7249
Twas a quiet start to the week with Queen’s Birthday holiday locally, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edging to 0.7240 before falling back early Tuesday to 0.7180. Risk mood deteriorated overnight with equities posting small losses and commodity markets struggling. Earlier US Non-Farm Payroll printed worse than expected at 559,000 instead of 645,000 improving on the earlier week’s result but still way off the mark weakening the US Dollar and sending the kiwi higher to 0.7200 at the close. Of note the US Unemployment rate clicked lower to 5.8% from 5.9%. Coming up on Calendar is May CPI in the US Friday with another prediction below 1.0% at 0.8% well below the “real” inflation figures which no-one talks about. We think the NZD/USD should hold above 0.7130 support level into the close.
Current Level: 0.7200
Last Weeks Range: 0.7126-0.7249
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded lower against the US Dollar (USD) Thursday to 0.7115 after starting the week around 0.7250. The big dollar index spiked after ADP Non-Farm employment was released well up on expectation. The number of newly employed people for the month of May recorded 978,000 based on estimates of 645,000. ISM sentiment in the US economy hit a new record high this morning when figures published stronger than expected at 64.0 ahead of 63.0 also helped. Surprisingly equity markets were unmoved, most likely based on recent speak by the Fed suggesting they will tighten policy sooner than expected. Coming up is NFP- Non-Farm Payroll which weirdly historically has a poor correlation to the ADP result. However if the number is solid we could see the kiwi tank lower and the USD continue with its rally. At the moment the cross is trading at the bottom of the 7-week range around 0.7150, a break below 0.7090- 0.7100 could see the kiwi really take off to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7146
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7124- 0.7287
Decent US employment data late Friday sent the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross lower on greenback strength to 0.7215 before bouncing higher to close out around 0.7240 levels. US employment claims came in at 406k compared to the 427k predicted a five week downward trend, the US Dollar index rising across the board. US and UK long weekend holidays Monday made for thin market trading, the kiwi rising to 0.7290 levels as equity prices closed positive into Tuesday. The key standout on the calendar this week is US monthly Non-Farm Payroll figures (NFP) Friday with predictions the unemployment rate could go lower under 6.0% giving risk products a boost. The 14-week high of 0.7315 could be retested this week if we indeed see a little risk on action.
Current Level: 0.7285
Last Weeks Range: 0.7210-0.7316
Risk sentiment improved Thursday with US jobless claims releasing better than predicted. Unemployment claims printed 406k based on 427k markets were expecting trending lower for the 5th week running. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 0.7300 levels against the US Dollar (USD). Earlier Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at the record low of 0.25% and kept a limit of 100B for its govt bond buying purchase program sending the cross from 0.7220 levels to over 0.7300. The central bank said they would likely hike rates as early as the third quarter of 2022 but this was highly conditional. The RBNZ sees the cash rate around 1.5% by the December quarter of 2023 and inflation at 1.7% ending March 2022 and 1.9% ending March 2023. The caveat- meeting inflation and employment targets could take considerable time and patience and to not get too over excited just yet. Clearing the three month high at 0.7302 we predict post long position profit taking, the kiwi should continue to book fresh highs.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7278
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7156- 0.7315
Recent data out in the US strengthened the big Dollar Friday with unemployment claims and Manufacturing both coming in better than we expected. Price was choppy around the 0.7220 area before falling to around 0.7150 levels where it closed. Risk on Monday improved the kiwi back towards 0.7230 as equity indices closed the day around 1% up. Dovish comments from Fed officials impacted taking the US index lower. Tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate and policy announcement is in focus with expectations of a dovish tone and a cautious approach to tightening policy as inflation rises. The bullish channel from late March should limit downside moves past 0.7160 as the cross targets the 3 month daily high at 0.7300.
Current Level: 0.7219
Last Weeks Range: 0.7150-0.7270
Early signs of action over 0.7300 levels in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) were quickly put to bed after markets turned risk off dampening spirits. Fed hangover from the recent shock US Inflation print is still weighing on markets. This morning’s Fed minutes highlighted they may be thinking of tapering their QE program as economic growth returns to pre-covid levels. The news turned equities negative taking the kiwi to 0.7160. Today’s NZ Annual Budget at 2.00pm NZT is our focus although no real shifts to price are anticipated based on historic reads. Support on the chart at 0.7150 has held firm bouncing off this level four times in the past couple of weeks. We see upside risks in the pair dominating over the next few days as losses reverse.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7171
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7151- 0.7270
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) received a nice boost heading into the weekly close reaching 0.7250 against the US Dollar (USD) based on weak US data improving risk products. US Retail Sales printed slightly lower at 0.0% than the 1.0% predicted and so did Industrial Production for April coming in at 0.7% based on market predictions of 0.9%. US Consumer Sentiment (UOM) Index declined to 82.8 in May with expectations of 90.4 sought bought on by higher inflation fears. Risk off Monday followed with the kiwi falling to 0.7180 last night with stocks turning positive into the NY close price pushed back in the cross to 0.7200. With no tier one economic data to publish this week we focus on the NZ budget release Thursday. The bullish channel from the low of 0.6940 – 25th March holds steady signalling further bias to the topside.
Current Level: 0.7236
Last Weeks Range: 0.7135-0.7289
All play this week has been to the downside in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair after early in the week markets turned to heavy risk off. US inflation surprised markets when February figures showed an unexpected rise of 0.8% instead of the 0.2%. Markets responded negatively after the Fed turned a blind eye to the result saying it was only temporary and not to worry. Yields went on the charge and US indices all broke lower three straight days sending the kiwi from 0.7300 areas down to 0.7135. This morning’s US weekly unemployment claims printed better than predicted at 473k over 487k, 34k down on last week’s numbers and trending in the right direction. US Industrial Production and US Retail Sales for April print in the morning. Based on support at 0.7150 we see the kiwi picking up the pace into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7177
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7133- 0.7303
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke into a fresh 10-week high reaching 0.7300 against the US Dollar (USD) extending Fridays risk on market mood. Equity markets are still trading around all time highs post Friday’s poor US Non-Farm Payroll release. Figures showed a pull back in April as just 266,000 people entered the workforce compared to 990,000 predicted, well down on March’s bumper 916,000. Is this a sign that the US economy is slowing or not recovering at the pace economists expect, not really, we need more data. But what the release presented is a reason for the Federal Reserve to continue with their monetary policy and not taper as quickly as they were possibly hoping. Risk markets feasted on the news with risk currencies all higher. Tuesday saw a shift in the cross as investors sold risk, the NZD returning to 0.7260 levels. Looking ahead we have the usual US employment claims and Retail Sales. We think the kiwi will retest 0.7300 again before the end of the week.
Current Level: 0.7257
Last Weeks Range: 0.7114-0.7304
It was a shaky start to the week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dropping down to 0.7115 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk averse investors pulled out of the kiwi and the big dollar strengthened. NZ employment data boosted the kiwi Wednesday off lows after printing at 0.6% q/q versus an expected 0.3% for the 3 months ending March, increasing the number of people employed in the workforce. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.7%, lower than the 4.9% forecast as eyebrows were raised for a faster economic bounce back. The cross was back at 0.7230 early Friday sessions after USD weakness and equities posted gains. The yearly “daily” high is 0.7295 from 6 January 2021 with the kiwi looking like it could retest this level over the coming week. Watch for US Non Farm Payroll releasing tomorrow morning to add the normal price swings and volatility.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7230
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7114- 0.7242
It’s a busy week on the economic docket for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair with a slew of data to release. The kiwi made gains midweek rising to 0.7286 before falling back to 0.7160 as the general risk mood deteriorated and the USD broadly strengthened. The Fed’s Kaplan said the central bank was keen to start talking about tapering off their QE program as soon as this month. The kiwi is back in charge this week with sentiment on the rise again as equity prices recover and trade back around previous all-time highs. Back at 0.7200 into Tuesday as markets await tomorrow’s NZ employment data. Monday’s US Manufacturing print for April showed a slowing sector set by supply challenges and vaccination issues. Later in the week all eyes will be on Non-Farm Payroll for April and the US Unemployment rate. We think the NZDUSD may retest the 9 week daily high at 0.7265 this week.
Current Level: 0.7190
Last Weeks Range: 0.7151-0.7286
As US equity indices trade around record highs the mood in markets has been buoyant. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted fresh highs early in the week when it reached 0.7242 as investors snapped up more risk correlated products. A five week high against the US Dollar (USD). Over the last couple of days, it’s been a time of consolidation as the pair hangs around the 0.7200 level. US Consumer Confidence came in better than expected at 121.7 compared to 113.1 expected creating gains for the greenback as the index reflected the upbeat mood of US consumers as the economy slowly gets back on track. The US Federal Reserve statement and rate announcement is tomorrow with no real expectation of a shift to the current policy briefing. But the Fed chairman is in somewhat a difficult position as he tackles the hurdle of an improving economy amid rising inflation and figures out where to go from here. A positive read should support the kiwi higher into next week.
Current Level: 0.7193
Last Weeks Range: 0.7146-0.7243
Early signs this week of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retesting 0.7240 fresh highs and resistance against a weakened USD Dollar (USD) came to an abrupt halt with the cross easing lower throughout the week hitting 0.7150 levels into Friday. NZ Q CPI rose 1.5% from a year earlier and 0.8% from 0.5% in the last quarter matching forecasts. The Reserve Bank has projected inflation to increase to the 2% target range late 2021 before slowing in 2022. With equity prices lower over the last few days and a broadly lower US Dollar risk sentiment has been mixed resulting in shifty movements in the NZD/USD pair. US Jobs data improved 547,000 against expectations of 607,000 overnight taking the big dollar off lows. Looking ahead we have the Federal Funds policy statement next week and advanced quarterly GDP. On the chart the bullish trendline is still intact from the low of 0.6940 (25th March) with expectation of upside bias over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7159
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7122- 0.7228
The US Dollar (USD) picked up where it left off last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) – slammed, extending declines. The kiwi posting fresh highs just under 0.7200 levels. With no tier one data releasing yet this week, big picture themes have dominated. The kiwi perhaps getting a boost from the border opening with Australia Monday together with big dollar weakness. The greenback strength index dipping overnight continuing its decline from the Thursday high. NZ quarterly CPI releases tomorrow with expectations of a rise of 0.8% for the first quarter 2021 -up from 0.5% last Q 2020. Biden’s climate summit should favor further benign conditions in the pair before unemployment claims Friday. The next resistance for the kiwi is the daily at 0.7240 from mid-March. A break above here would definitely signal a realignment of the uptrend towards 0.7440 lofty levels.
Current Level: 0.7187
Last Weeks Range: 0.7004-0.7197
After mincing around the 0.7020 zone for much of last week and slightly lower the week earlier the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has retraced losses seen around late March to 0.7170 this week against the US Dollar (USD). Not even a dovish RBNZ could hold the kiwi back as the risk trade became favoured in light of better than predicted US data publishing. The RBNZ left policy unchanged together with the Large Scale Asset Purchase program of up to $100B, and the Funding for Lending Programme. The OCR will remain at the record low of 0.25% for some time well into late 2022 at least. Comments made by Adrian Orr confirming unemployment will need to be much lower and inflation above 2.0% will take considerable time. Equity markets, as well as risk assets, are all up as US Retail Sales and Unemployment claims both seemed to confirm a US recovery of sorts was well underway. Retail Sales printed at 9.8% for March instead of the 5.8% on the card. Next week is a quiet week with only NZ Q CPI publishing of note. We expect the NZD to push a little higher before profit-taking on long positions should take the cross lower.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7162
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7002- 0.7179
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gone nowhere fast over the last 7 days of trading against the US Dollar (USD). The cross traded into Tuesday’s session hovering around the 0.7020 area. Since the new property investment tax laws were introduced a fortnight ago, when price fell from the 0.7180 area, the kiwi has been unable to recover these losses and bias has been to the downside broadly. Most importantly as support and resistance converge and the 100 day and 200 day moving average meet around the 0.7030 area, a breakout looks imminent. The Fed’s Bullard made the comment that he expects GDP for 2021 to hit 6.5% with inflation to rise as well. The Fed expects hiring and the speed of the recovery will gain pace but with coronavirus risks. Tomorrow’s RBNZ rate and policy announcement won’t rattle any cages, but we may have more clues as to when the next likely rate hike may happen. Anything below 0.6950 could spell further downside dangers for the kiwi.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6997-0.7066
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to edge higher to 0.7065 against the US Dollar (USD) Wednesday, continuing its bullish move from the early March low of 0.6945. The US ISM Services Index moved to a fresh record high overnight of 63.7 from 55.3 for the March reading above the anticipated 59.0 forecast. With coronavirus lockdowns and movement eased, this is fuelling the economy. With inflation and employment on the rise, markets are starting to consider prospects of a 2022 rate hike. Fed chair Powell speaks Friday about the global economy which should shift around prices. We expect further upside in the pair if we see 0.7100 develop, this should signal further buying in the kiwi with a potential bull trend reversal taking shape.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7065
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7006- 0.7067
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stabalised around the 0.6940 area Friday against the US Dollar (USD) before taking back small losses Tuesday travelling to 0.7030. Recent news of concern regarding Archegos Capital Management losses which are expected to run into the Billions has markets on high alert of deeper swing shifts to currencies as regulators delve deeper into what happened. Fed’s Barkin has been on the wires saying, once they get through the pandemic crisis they will have an extremely good middle half of the year with pent up demand for products and supply shortages. With massive debt the overshadowing problem this spike to growth could be temporary. A shortened Easter week should keep movement low in the cross until US Non-Farm Payroll releases late Friday. If the kiwi can stay above 0.6950 support this week and climb above key 0.7000 we may see higher highs develop.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6990
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6943- 0.7033
It’s not often we see movement this severe in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair, with price retreating over 2% this week to reach 0.6950 into Friday. In a nutshell, it hasn’t gone well for the kiwi starting out with new govt housing boom tax changes for investors, sending the kiwi reeling. With a mix of risk-off, greenback safe haven buying and Powell testimony the NZD never caught a break. Fed chairman Powell spoke of a stronger US economy with 6.5% growth medium term revised up and the necessary tools at hand if inflation surges above their 2.0% target. He also mentioned if vaccine rollouts go well this could be the catalyst for backing off the QE program. Markets turned their nose up and bought the big dollar safe haven. Its thin air through 0.7000 and now that the cross has closed on the daily chart below this key level we could see further declines unfold.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6953
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6942- 0.7181
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) progressed to 0.7180 early Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD). Big Dollar weakness and a rebound in equity markets improved risk conditions. Meanwhile, the latest Westpac consumer confidence report index wasn’t so great falling 0.8% points in the March quarter to 105.2, below average levels. Midday today the kiwi dropped away to 0.7115 as the NZ govt outlined new tax changes in efforts to halt property values going higher. By taking away the benefit of offsetting loan interest costs against property income for tax purposes and also having to retain properties for a minimum of 10 years instead of 5 this will have a massive effect on especially new investment property owners, but most importantly almost certainly drop house values. It’s a lot better in the long run than capital gains tax but not by much. The Labour government clearly fully supports new property owners at the detriment of shafting investors. The NZD holds at 0.7130 currently with further bias to the downside in the short term.
Current Level: 0.7112
Last Weeks Range: 0.7124-0.7269
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stretched its legs to a new high of 0.7260 against the US Dollar (USD) Thursday on broad-based greenback weakness post a dovish Fed announcement. The US central bank agreed to leave its main cash rate unchanged and keep its QE program intact. Powell dismissed prospects the Fed would scale back its monetary policy, with a rate hike not likely until 2022-2023. They expect inflation to jump to approximately 2.60% over the next 5 years – we suggest this figure could be a lot higher. US jobless numbers this morning spooked markets when a further 770,000 Americans filed for unemployment much higher than the 704,000 predicted. This took equity markets lower and risk products along for the ride, the kiwi diving to 0.7160. The NZD holds well above the danger zone yearly low at 0.7100 – we expect further rises in the near/medium term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7165
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7143- 0.7268
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) improved on last week’s late spike to post 0.7215 Monday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment remained high. Equities went higher as punters are persuaded all is well at the Fed with recent interest rate communication. The Federal Reserve Statement is due Thursday with a close eye on how they convince financial markets that even though they see an improving economic picture, how they will be able to provide further support without affecting inflation. Powel will most likely increase bond purchases, keep rates at near zero, which are intended to lower long-term borrowing costs. Later in the week, NZ fourth quarter GDP is in focus with predictions of a slight pick up in growth of 0.2%. Vaccine complications with AstraZeneca have spooked markets in the past day and could play a bigger “risk” role this week if rollout optimism deteriorates. The kiwi is targeting 0.7240 – last week’s high, then 0.7300.
Current Level: 0.7200
Last Weeks Range: 0.7103-0.7240
The US Dollar (USD) weakened further over the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on improving US jobs data and a broad based lack of safe haven appeal. The kiwi dipped early week to key support around 0.7090 – the yearly low before recovering to reach 0.7240 into Friday sessions. The greenback has continued to be put under big pressure as US yield prices click higher putting pressure on inflation fears and the medium-term rate increases. The number of people who filed for unemployment in the US to the week ending 6 March was 712,000 coming in below market forecast of 725,000 and down from the previous week’s 754,000, marking the lowest reading since November. The Fed monetary statement is next week with no significant changes expected. NZ fourth Q GDP also prints and should reflect a positive result and boost the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7224
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7103- 0.7239
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has closed Monday trading at its lowest level against the US Dollar (USD), at 0.7120, since the 20th of January this year. This marks the third straight week of declines amid a strengthening big dollar. Joe Biden’s 1.9T USD stimulus package bill has been passed by congress, just, in a 50-49 vote. This led to the US 10-year yield recovering Friday’s losses. Friday also saw a pickup in the number of people entering the workforce after the Non-Farm Payroll release came in at 379,000 vs 197,000 predicted. This kiwi rose from 0.7100 levels to close out the week at 0.7170. Us unemployment also shrank to 6.2% from 6.3%. Thursday’s US CPI is our focus with prices predicted to come off January’s 0.0% at around 0.2% showing the recent effects of inflation. A drop below the 0.7100 zone could signal further NZD declines with no real support above 0.7000.
Current Level: 0.7122
Last Weeks Range: 0.7100-0.7305
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) showed signs of improving against the US Dollar (USD) early week to 0.7300 but has spent the last few days on the back foot. After a jump in the GDT dairy index with a surprising rise of 15.0% and a whopping 21% in Whole Milk, the kiwi struggled to stay above 0.7230. US Employment overnight reached the lowest level in rarely 3 months with layoffs at 745,000 for the week ending 27th Feb from an expected 758,000. US Federal Reserve chairman Powell spoke this morning spooking markets with his restrained comments in regard to recent rises in long-term interest rate, although he did say he sees no urgency to tighten monetary policy. This brought about a surge in long term bond prices with the 10 year shifting from 1.50% to 1.53%. On the whole equity markets turned sharply lower taking risk sentiment along for the ride and the kiwi to 0.7180 just off a 3 week low. If the NZD can avoid going below 0.7150 in this run it should remain in its bullish long term trend.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7263
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7171- 0.7306
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tumbled late Thursday into the weekend close against the US Dollar (USD) ending up at 0.7250 from 0.7450 style levels. Into Tuesday the kiwi has held off further declines consolidating around the 0.7260 mark. Bond markets have been pricing in rising inflation based on global economic growth which could leave central banks unable to maintain current loose monetary policy settings. Investors are betting that improving economic data could mean the Federal Reserve will ultimately have to pull back on the generous stimulus that has fuelled markets for many months now. Weaker equity markets usually implied a softening NZD. Non-Farm Payroll prints this Friday which is expected to represent an improving jobs market with around 185,000 people entering the workforce for February. On the chart we see the cross trading at the bottom end of the recent bullish channel which could indicate an upward bias developing.
Current Level: 0.7274
Last Weeks Range: 0.7222-0.7464
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stretched its legs Monday reaching a new high of 0.7340 against the US Dollar (USD) before easing into Tuesday to 0.7320. Finally extending north of the recent range through 0.7260 the kiwi has been the strongest performer. S&P rating agency buoyed buyer interest in the kiwi after they lifted the country’s AA credit rating to AA+. US Dollar weakness has also been a factor over the last 10 days with downside pressures to equities on the back of rising US Yields. We are on the lookout for a US Dollar comeback hence we expect topside action in the cross limited for now. Wednesday’s RBNZ rate announcement and statement is our focus with expectations that governor Orr could be reasonably positive regarding the NZ outlook. Later in the week, second release US GDP should print around 4.2% for the last quarter of 2020 – anything surprising on the low side could strain further upside sentiment in the NZD.
Current Level: 0.7324
Last Weeks Range: 0.7158-0.7342
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) continues to trade within a now very familiar range against the United States dollar (USD), with support toward 0.7100 and resistance around 0.7300. The high this week has actually been 0.7267 but the pair quickly reversed from there to trade back down to 0.7155. Currently at the 0.7225 level, our bias remains toward a test of topside resistance just over 0.730, although the market may well continue to tread water until next Wednesday’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. Rising US bond yields have started to weigh on US stock markets and if that continues then it will provide some significant headwinds for the pair.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7215
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7158 – 0.7268
The snap announcement of an Auckland lockdown in the wake of the latest covid outbreak in New Zealand has failed to impact the NZD at this stage. That could change if we see wider community transmission and the lockdown is extended as a result, but for the time being the market is taking it in its stride. As such the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains well supported against the United States dollar (USD) albeit with the now familiar range of 0.7100 to 0.7300 that has dominated since late December. Currently trading at 0.7225, the risks look skewed toward the topside and a potential test of the ranges upper bound. Key data from the US this week comes in the form of Wednesday night’s retail sales numbers. While from NZ, this week’s largely second tier data shouldn’t have much impact as the market instead looks forward to next week’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement.
Current Level: 0.7242
Last Weeks Range: 0.7175-0.7254
While the NZDUSD continues to trade between the broad parameters of 0.7100 and 0.7300 that has contained the pair since late last year, the bias remains to the topside and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a test of key resistance around 0.7315 over the coming week. The United States dollar (USD) has been under some pressure in recent days after disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data was released on Friday night. This comes in stark contrast to the NZ employment data last week which was much better than forecast. Surging stock markets are also supporting broader risk sentiment, further helping commodity currencies such as the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Any break above 0.7315 would open the way for another leg higher, initially targeting 0.7440 then 0.7560. For the time being dips toward 0.7100 look to remain very well supported.
Current Level: 0.7233
Last Weeks Range: 0.7136-0.7254
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) continues to trade in 2021 within a reasonably tight range between 0.7100 and 0.7300. Poor risk appetite and general greenback strength helped to take the cross to 0.7150 Tuesday. The US Senate has voted 49-50 in favour of moving forward with Biden’s 1.9T coronavirus relief package, but clearly this could hit a roadblock when a final decision is approved as it could be reduced in order to satisfy both sides of the senate. NZ unemployment data published today surprised markets when the December quarter figure dropped from September’s 5.6% to 4.9% rallying the kiwi from 0.7145 to 0.7200. Looking forward-US Non-Farm Payroll is now our focus with predictions of an improvement on January’s terrible release along with the Unemployment Rate to remain stable at 6.7%. Risks are firmly now in favour of a further topside rally to 0.7300 resistance.
Current Level: 0.7190
Last Weeks Range: 0.7106-0.7247
The US Dollar (USD) fell away against most of its rivals Thursday after US jobless claims dropped to a 3-week low boosting risk markets and equities off recent lows. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefited from the low of 0.7105 to 0.7195 early Friday. The number of Americans filing unemployment fell to3 w847,000 in the week ending January 23rd less than the forecast figure of 875,000- the lowest print in 3 weeks. Overall, the US economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, the worst year since 1946- the good news is that it was slightly up on the forecasted figure of 3.6%. Next week’s NZ unemployment figures and US Non-Farm Payroll are the focus. Currently on the chart 0.7240 offers resistance to the topside but we feel risk may continue into the weekend and push the kiwi up a tad higher.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7171
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7103- 0.7245
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) pushing towards the 7 day high to 0.7225 before easing back to 0.7170. Risk markets looked a tad shaky with equities falling prior to the daily close but recovered to post gains – the kiwi was back at 0.7190. US Employment data Friday printed better than expected with a drop to 900k jobless from the 930k predicted, meanwhile NZ CPI for the December 2020 quarter posted 0.5%, up from the 0.2% expected aiding the NZD to make small gains. New president Joe Biden says he expects to vaccinate 1M people per day across America with expectations that the country should be well on the way to herd immunity by the US summer. Biden’s 1.9T stimulus package looks to be in doubt as Democrats may not be able to pass the stimulus until March due to hurdles in congress. US GDP (advanced) for the December Q is Friday with a modest improvement predicted of 4.2% following the massive 33.1% for the third Q 2020. Before this focus will be on the Federal Reserve Funds Rate and policy statement which should stress the feds commitment to keeping rates low for some time amidst the coronavirus pandemic. The kiwi should sit around 0.7200 levels until Thursday.
Current Level: 0.7197
Last Weeks Range: 0.7102-0.7225
The New Zealand dollar dipped to just under 0.7100 in the early stages of this week, but with the longer term trend toward USD weakness still well intact it was only a matter of time before buyers stepped back in to support the kiwi. In the past 48 hours the NZDUSD has rallied back up over the 0.7200 and the risks remain toward further gains. Helping the NZD is the expectation that the RBNZ are likely now done with rate cuts and the next move will be a rate hike, albeit not until sometime in 2022. NZ inflation data released in the past couple of hours will only reinforce this outlook after it printer stronger than expectation at 0.5% q/q. The release saw the NZDUSD jump toward 0.7225.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7217
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7096 – 0.7223
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed another leg higher early 2021 against the US Dollar (USD) extending rises from late October’s 0.6600 style levels to 0.7315. This marks the first time we have seen this level since April 2018. After the 900B American bailout package was unveiled a month ago president elect Joe Biden has proposed a third bailout package with checks of $1,400 for all American citizens, most lawmakers on both sides of the fence are expected to back the payments which will cost more than 1.5T USD. Last week’s US unemployment figure released better than markets were predicting at 6.7% from 6.8% but staying the same for November. Risk off flow has continued into this week taking price to 0.7100 levels this morning from 0.7240 on Thursday as demand for the big dollar surged. On the chart the kiwi still holds the long-term channel, a fall to 0.7030 could spell a deeper reversal.
Current Level: 0.7127
Last Weeks Range: 0.7097-7240
Up the stairs, down the elevator shaft has been the story with the NZD/USD over the last two days..! After making a high of 0.7171 last Monday, the highest level since April 2018, the NZD dropped sharply over the last two days to make an overnight low of 0.7002 over concerns over the surge in COVID-19 cases in the US, UK and Europe along with the closure of some European borders again. These moves saw a retreat in risk appetite with both the NZD & AUD taking a hit from sellers….Economic fundamentals are still NZD supportive and 0.7050 should initially hold any pullbacks. A break of this level would then target 0.7000 the next physiological level, then little major technical support until the 0.6890 level…We expect trading to be choppy over the next two weeks as trading volumes decrease over the holiday period…0.7170 – 0.7000 should see the week out.
Current Level: 0.7086
Last Weeks Range: 0.7052-0.7170
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stood tall once again extending its reach on the US Dollar (USD) to a new high of 0.7170 Thursday. A mix of positive risk appetite and greenback weakness took the kiwi to a late April 2018 level. Rising commodity prices and equities also suited the NZD post third quarter NZ GDP yesterday. Figures showed a string bounce in the NZ economy from the -12.2% in the second quarter to June to +14.0% in the third quarter ending September surging out of the recession. Forecasts were around the 12.0% mark highlighting massive spending since the country eliminated community transmission months back. The Federal Reserve left rate unchanged with policy also unchanged, the Fed reluctant to make further changes to their bond buying program now. We have seen a little profit taking on NZD long positions entering Friday with price retreating towards 0.7140 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7145
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7053- 0.7171
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its climb early week to 0.7120 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment improved. US Dollar weakness continued Monday the kiwi reaching an April 2018 high following in the footsteps of the Australian Dollar. Volatility should continue in the cross well into Friday trading with a slew of economic data to come. The Federal Reserve rate and statement is Thursday morning with expectation that the Fed won’t tweak its bond buying program which could push 10 year yields above 1%. NZ third quarter GDP prints Thursday also and is expected to show a strong rebound in business and economic growth in the quarter ending September of around 13.0%. This should be well received from buyers of NZD.
Current Level: 0.7072
Last weeks Range: 0.7005-0.7118
It’s been a volatile second half of the week for the NZDUSD pair with some significant swings between the broad parameters of 0.7000 and 0.7100. Ultimately the New Zealand dollar (NZD) heads into the Friday trading at the top of that range supported by broad based United States dollar (USD) weakness. If the NZDUSD manages a sustained break about 0.7100, there’s not much in the way of topside resistance until the 0.7300 area. We could easily be looking at that sort of level by early in the NY if the recent trend continues. Next week from the US we have retail sales data, manufacturing PMI and a Fed rate meeting to digest. On the NZ side of the equation the key release will be GDP data on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7097
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7005 – 0.7099
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.7100 levels against the US Dollar (USD) late last week before dropping to 0.7010 early Monday as the greenback gathered broad based strength. US Non-Farm Payroll disappointed in November with figures showing 245,000 jobs were added well short of the expected 480,000. The unemployment rate edged lower to 6.7% from 6.9% in October. The pace of the US economy has pulled back in recent months given the explosion of coronavirus cases affecting businesses. Direction over the remainder of the week will depend largely on US stimulus negotiations, Brexit and vaccine headlines. We do however expect the kiwi to hold current levels above 0.7000 support.
Current Level: 0.7036
Last Weeks Range: 0.7005-0.7104
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) made fresh cycle highs against the United States dollar (USD) overnight briefly trading above 0.7100. Positive risk sentiment helped the NZD as stock markets reached fresh record highs on the back of optimism that a US stimulus bill will be agreed by congress in the near term. There doesn’t look to be any significant technical resistance for the NZDUSD until the mid 0.7300’s. For the time being at least, the positive trend looks to be well entrenched and the risks remain skewed toward further USD weakness and a higher NZDUSD. We do have, however, key US employment data set to hit the wires tonight, in the form of Non-Farm Payrolls, and this monthly release always has the potential to move the market significantly. Expectations are for a gain in payrolls of just under 500k. That would be down from last month’s +638k result.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7073
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.7007 – 0.7104
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) registered a new high Monday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.7050 before easing back to around 0.7000 early into Tuesday sessions. Risk sentiment retreated as month end flows dominated trading. We still consider the kiwi to be very supported on dips as head deep into a heavy week of US data releases. Overnight US manufacturing wasn’t so rosy coming in lighter than predicted in October followed by home sales which also unexpectedly came in light. US Unemployment and (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll both should reflect improving publications. Overall vaccine headlines are largely moving markets with the first vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech to gain UK govt approval within days. A daily Tuesday close above 0.7040 would signal further gains by the kiwi to follow.
Current Level: 0.7024
Last Weeks Range: 0.6915-0.7051
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to new heights this week against the US Dollar (USD) to reach 0.7014, a level not seen since June 2018. Letters exchanged by Reserve Bank governor Orr and Finance Minister Robinson regarding the housing market and what could be done to stem the apparent over inflated housing market pushed the kiwi higher. The realisation by markets that its highly possible the RBNZ won’t cut rates into the negatives next year hit home. Earlier NZ Retail Sales also bounced the NZD with a splendid third quarter jump of 28% from second quarter’s -14% showing improved local spending which is fantastic for the local economy. The greenback has traded reasonably flat over the last few hours due to Thanksgiving holiday, meanwhile the numbers of Americans filing for unemployment rose to a five week high of 778,000 people. Buyers of USD should look hard at these current levels around 0.7000 as we expect investors to take profit at some point which could cause a correction in the cross.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.7003
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6896- 0.7014
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sharply fell away during late Monday trading after starting the week in a positive tone. Price dropped from fresh highs of 0.6965 to 0.6895 on broad based US Dollar (USD) strength. Price however remains within the bullish channel from the low around 0.6600 levels. Initially it was NZ Retail Sales which came in at +28% as opposed to -14% for the second quarter which moved the kiwi higher, before the greenback came to play. US PMI Manufacturing for October rose sharply to 56.7 from 53.3 in September highlighting expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors, the growth is the sharpest rise since March 2015. Prelim GDP for the third quarter prints later in the week expected to reflect a rise of around 33.0% from -31.7% for the second quarter. Coronavirus risk seems to be driving most of the spikes and dips in the main currency pairs of late, as vaccine hopes run hot. The kiwi has recovered some losses at midday Tuesday trading just off 0.6950 levels.
Current Level: 0.6935
Last Weeks Range: 0.6875-0.6967
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has edged closer to the magical 0.7000 mark this week rising to 0.6940 against the unfavourable US Dollar (USD). Global risk sentiment seems to be “off and on again” this week with vaccine headlines driving markets as well as coronavirus number spikes. Coronavirus numbers in the US are out of control with 1.5M new cases over the last 7 days putting pressures on hospital facilities not to mention economically. As new restrictions come into play across the states many businesses won’t be able to hang on deep into 2021 until any virus vaccine is able to be distributed to the masses. NZ’s better than predicted recent RBNZ meeting has reinforced better prospects into 2021 especially given no cuts into the negatives may happen. These factors have given the kiwi more momentum to the topside. A weekly close above 0.6915 would be the highest close since June 2018.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6913
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6837- 0.6943.
More gains in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Monday, against the US Dollar (USD) has seen price travel to 0.6905 levels. This marks 20-month highs in the cross as risk sentiment rules the roost. Moderna says their coronavirus vaccine is 95% effective on its 30,000 test cases and will seek formal “emergency use authorisation” to get formal approval to roll out the vaccine across the globe. Of note, even if this drug is approved for distribution it will be late 2021 before it’s actually available. The next topside target for the kiwi is 0.6920- a break though here- the December 2018 high could signal further upside bias. It’s well and truly thin air through the physiological 0.7000 level. US Retail Sales prints Wednesday ahead of weekly US Unemployment claims Friday.
Current Level: 0.6906
Last Weeks Range: 0.6803-0.6914
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run into Thursday to 0.6915 against the US Dollar (USD), the highest level since March this year. Talk of negative interest rates being less likely sent a wave of demand into the kiwi. The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday at 0.25% as well as the large asset purchases program. The committee agreed that additional stimulus would be provided through a “funding for Lending Program” (FLP) starting in December. This will allow the central bank to pass on cheap funding costs with lower interest rates to banks. US monthly CPI missed its mark with the Fed saying they won’t consider rate increases until inflation targets are met. Profit taking of long positions took the kiwi lower Friday as US weekly jobs data printed better than predicted with 709,000 less people filing for unemployment last week. Fed’s Powell said the economy is recovering better than expected but they still had a few months of challenging times despite positive vaccine headlines. Daily coronavirus cases are now up towards 150k with the virus still raging across the country. 0.6760 is now the new support area – we think the kiwi should climb further over the coming weeks to possibly retest the magical 0.7000 zone.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6838
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6787- 0.6913
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) punched through 0.6770 resistance last night against the US Dollar (USD) on its way to a fresh high of 0.6855 before settling around the 0.6815 area Tuesday. This is the first time the kiwi has closed the day above 0.6780 since July 18th 2019. Risk on sentiment picked up during the NY session after coronavirus vaccines news pushed all risk products topside. Equity markets are all up with the DOW at +4.8% and Crude Oil over 8.0%. Pfizer and BioNtTech announced they have 90% success rate with preventing infections – exciting news. NZ has already secured 750,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Markets seem to be enjoying a period of post-election freedom with uncertainty put to one side of the moment. The RBNZ Cash Rate and Statement is tomorrow, we are not expecting any real wide moves to prices with the rate expected to remain unchanged for now at 0.25%. However Orr’s statement could focus on “Large Scale Asset Purchase” facilities and forward guidance and could weaken the kiwi a tad. The next target topside for the kiwi is the 0.6915 high of June 2018.
Current Level: 0.6822
Last Weeks Range: 0.6614
US Election risk supported the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week against the US Dollar (USD) with price reaching 0.6775 Friday. Equity indices have grown a new leg, up over 2.0% overnight assisting to take the kiwi to new highs. The election is far from over with votes still being counted in pivotal states but it looks like at this point we will get a Democrat win, unless Trump wins in the courts with legal ballot count infringements. We always said a Trump win would be good for the NZD and risk because markets run from fear and uncertainty. Perhaps analysts still think Trump should take it out, a sign with equities?. A daily close above 0.6770 the highest since March 2019 should point to upside bias in the pair in the coming days as a technical scenario. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement is Wednesday with no expectation just yet of rates being cut.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6771
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6589- 0.6775
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted lower off the open to 0.6590 against the US Dollar (USD) before returning to 0.6635 into Tuesday sessions. Perhaps a sign of the potential volatility for the rest of the week as a raft of economic data and risk events should keep traders on their toes. The US Election promises to be exciting, if you’re into it, with markets poised to react to any headline surprise. Generally speaking a Trump win should stabilize markets and currencies with a Biden win offering more uncertainty and potential “risk off” price action. NZ Employment data tomorrow could put pressure on the kiwi as the 3rd quarter number is predicted to be higher at 5.3% from the June quarter 4.0%. Aside from the Election main event we also have US Non-Farm Payroll Friday.
Current Level: 0.6631
Last Weeks Range: 0.6589-0.6723
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retreated from its lofty perch this week against a stronger US Dollar (USD). The pair fell from 0.6720 down to 0.6590 early Friday with general end of week sentiment not helping the kiwi. We will have to wait a bit longer to see a fresh high through 0.6770. US Statistics showed the US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 33.0% for the third quarter improving on market expectations of 31.0%. This marks the largest year on year expansion of growth on record driven hard by a strong pick up in personal spending and jobs data. Initial jobs claims clocked 751,000 for the week ending 24th October beating the estimate of 775,000, the lowest weekly jobs data read in this coronavirus era. The US reported 81,000 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday and it’s not clear if the US will be implementing fresh restrictions as they head into the US Election on the 8th of November. The resurgence of new coronavirus cases hanging over the country is netting out much of the positive economic news of late. Next week’s attention lies with NZ jobs data and US NFP along with the Federal Reserve Funds Rate.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6625
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6594- 0.6723
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hovers around the 0.6680 zone into Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment tetters. Last week we saw a clean break above the 4 week resistance at 0.6670 but the kiwi failed to extend momentum through 0.6700. New home sales in the US surprised us when figures showed a decline in September after 4 straight months of increases. Overall though the US like our own (NZ) is underpinned by historically low lending rates, even though the coronavirus pandemic drags on. US stimulus talks between Pelosi and the Mnuchin have slowed up but not ended. 8 days out from the US election and we probably won’t see any significant developments published. 3rd quarter US GDP prints Friday which is expected to represent a positive result of around 32.0% annualised after a contraction of 5.0% in the first quarter and a decline of 31.7% in the second quarter. Expect plenty of volatility around this time, we could see the kiwi jump.
Current Level: 0.6682
Last Weeks Range: 0.6553-0.6704
Early week selling of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.6550 was replaced by a return to form against the US Dollar (USD) flying to 0.6690 Friday lunch. Risk mood has improved over the last 48 hours or so with progress being made in the US fiscal stimulus negotiations. NZ CPI came in at 0.7% for the September quarter this morning slightly down from the 0.9% but the number is a good result as it could have been much worse. This will have the RBNZ reassessing negative interest rates in the coming months. Looking ahead to next week we have a NZ holiday Monday and a flood of US economic data to follow. Long term resistance is 0.6770 the high back in July 2019 – we may see a retest at this zone if risk sentiment improves.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6661
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6552- 0.6688
It’s been an up and down week early on in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair, actually mostly down. The NZ election concluded in the manner we expected with the most likely scenario eventuating and not affecting the kiwi an iota. The kiwi came off the open at 0.6670 holding this area most of Monday before dropping to 0.6570 into early Tuesday on a less than ideal risk sentiment. US Fiscal Negotiations between US parties the Democrats and Republicans are still a long way off being agreed and Eli Lilly’s coronavirus vaccine has been paused due to safety concerns. Both instances sent waves through risk products. Further downside support should be around the 0.6580 zone, but this will depend largely on an improvement in risk and week’s end quarterly releasing NZ CPI.
Current Level: 0.6594
Last Weeks Range: 0.6576-0.6682
As we said in the previous commentary if US stimulus negotiations continue to look ugly we could see a decent correction in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eventuate. On Thursday price fell apart from 0.6650 levels down to 0.6580 as the US Dollar took charge and the kiwi was sold off in heavy traffic. The chances of a stimulus deal done and dusted prior to the US presidential elections now looks a slim chance, with a spokesman saying Pelossi and Mnuchin will be “exchanging language on several areas” -there is no way these comments even remotely resemble the throws of a deal being negotiated. US jobs numbers deteriorated in the week ending 10th October to 898,000 after 810,000 was predicted an increase of 53,000 from the previous week- a poor result but recent results are trending in the right direction however. Unless we a surprise result in the NZ election results over the weekend the kiwi should remain reasonably unmoved by a labour outcome on the Monday open.. Heading into the weekly close we expect a retest of the daily support at 0.6540.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6596
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6576- 0.6682
Recently the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been well bid with positive risk sentiment driving the kiwi higher against the US Dollar (USD). Monday’s open saw the price move back below 0.6650 as markets were weirdly muted even though equities posted circa 2.0% gains overnight. A US fiscal deal looks to be fading again after a lack of meaningful progress being made between parties. Nancy Pelosi rejected President Trump’s latest proposal and offered her version of the coronavirus relief bill. Trump’s 1.8T package included a US 400 boost in weekly unemployment insurance, a US 1,200 stimulus check for all American adults and US 1,000 for every child. The Democrats look to be sticking with their original 2.2T plan for now. If negotiations fall apart even more we could see risk markets make a proper correction and the kiwi weaken. That being said, we view topside momentum limited to 0.6800 with a retest of recent lows around 0.6515 more likely.
Current Level: 0.6647
Last Weeks Range: 0.6546-0.6672
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off 0.6650 early in the week failing to kick on extending last week’s gains instead falling sharply to 0.6550 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment deteriorated. At first the US fiscal stimulus plan looked like a goer with US congress to deliver another round of financial relief but this was overshadowed by Trump wanting to postpone talks until after the election. In the latest headline it turns out House speaker Pelosi said no individual relief package would be forthcoming to airlines without a bigger picture stimulus bill passed. Pelosi and Trump are looking at agreeing on a deal now prior to the 3rd November election. The kiwi bounced higher on the news, midday Friday recovering to 0.6590. Another thin calendar scheduled next week, US holiday Monday should highlight a slow start of the week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6591
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6546- 0.6656
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has held steady Monday against the US Dollar (USD) sitting just below the recent 3 week high of 0.6655 at 0.6645 as risk sentiment perks up. President Trump has contracted coronavirus, the main headlines around the world, he has been hospitalised but has since recovered well and should be discharged soon. Coming out the other side of the virus boosted risk products and bought feel good back into equity products, the kiwi however not yet fully benefiting. A thin week of economic data should see geopolitical influences dictate currency movement. Fed chair Powell speaks at the end of the week. If the cross can show its head above 0.6670 we may see a surge higher to 0.6700 resistance.
Current Level: 0.6652
Last Weeks Range: 0.6548-0.6656
The NZD has been resolute over the week with a low of 0.6534 well clear of the crucial 0.6510 level and has now pushed back over the 0.6600 mark now looking to take out the 0.6690 resistance level. All this has been on no major NZ data and pretty much on USD weakness. Although there is sense that the RBNZ may hold off on a move to negative rates which has helped the Kiwi.
Tonight will bring the US Non-farm payroll figure which is expected to show 850k jobs have been created in September , if the data is thereabouts, the USD should stay steady at current levels. Most of the recent job cuts forecast to show up in data until the November release. We expect the NZD/USD cross to hold around current levels 0.6625/0.6660 over the day with moves outside this range not likely until after jobs figure release. With the NZ election a relative forgone conclusion. Look for the NZD to go into next week around similar levels as the USD direction remains the driver of NZD value. Expect continued USD volatility as the US election race continues.
A sustained break over 0.6690 would target 0.6780.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6641
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6538- 0.6657
The NZD has been able to hold steady as the week opens with current NZD/USD levels around the 0.6550 level which is slightly encouraging after the nearly 200-point decline of the previous week. Little data out on the NZ side this week, with most focus on the second debate on Wednesday between Labour and National leaders, but with current polls clearly pointing to a continuation of a Labour government, there is unlikely to be any currency movement associated with who wins the debate. More pivotal for the USD however, with the first debate between Trump and Biden later Tuesday night (tomorrow our time) and a raft of jobs data ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll figure expected at 850k new jobs. We expect this month’s jobs data to be relatively good ahead of next month’s (October) which will reflect the lay-offs across several industry groups as the payroll subsidies end. Look for the USD to remain volatile as the Presidential election draws closer and unsettling geopolitical events continue to drive direction. Movement in the NZD/USD cross will very much hinge on the USD as driver and although we favour USD downside medium term , NZD will be susceptible to any further risk-off moves and equity market weakness, with any break below the 0.6510 support level likely to open the gate for a decline towards 0.6450.
Current Level: 0.6557
Last Weeks Range: 0.6510-0.6767
It’s been a week of relentless declines for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) as risk sentiment soured pressuring the local currency. Declines in US equity markets drove the “risk off” mood and as such buyers of the NZD were few and far between. The RBNZ statement on Wednesday, while dovish, was very much in line with what they have said before and it didn’t have much impact on the kiwi. Broad based United States dollar (USD) strength however, has played a part in the NZDUSD decline this week as the big dollar started to claw back some of the ground lost over May, June, and July. It’s hard to see the USD recovering too much more ground in the near term as the States draws ever closer to what could be a chaotic Presidential election in a little over 5 weeks. There is going to be some real uncertainty around this US election and markets don’t like uncertainty. This should keep a lid on further USD gains and we should also be prepared for some significant volatility in early November. Initial support for the NZD comes in around 0.6510 and that was tested briefly last night. I would look for 0.6510 to continue to put a floor under the NZD as we head into next week. Clients converting USD to NZD should seriously consider trading at the current level.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6551
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6512 – 0.6776
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) failed to push higher into the 0.68’s against the US Dollar (USD) returning to last week’s open at 0.6660 levels Monday, underperforming against the preferred safe haven greenback as markets turned risk off. NZ’s official cash rate and monetary policy announcement is tomorrow with consensus that governor Orr will speak further on the need to take rates into negative territory. This could have a downside effect on the kiwi, only if markets haven’t factored this outcome in. We suspect such an extension to QE and negative rates won’t have too much impact on price action. Price in the cross has consolidated around 0.6660 Tuesday, but we think the “risk off” bias will continue deep into the week and push the kiwi lower, potentially to the next level of support around the 0.6600 zone. Fed chair Powell testifies at week’s end, watch for volatility as he speaks.
Current Level: 0.6665
Last Weeks Range: 0.6652-0.6797
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended late last week’s gains higher against the US Dollar (USD) reaching fresh highs at 0.6765 while I write this. It’s been a bumpy ride for the cross mainly due to big dollar volatility around the FOMC meeting. The Fed delivered what was seen as a dovish statement maintaining their inflation “average” aim of 2.0% over the long term. Post release the news took the cross a cent lower to 0.6670 before recovering into Friday over a lack of USD support. The New Zealand economy entered a recession Thursday when second quarter GDP printed at -12.2% in line with wider predictions. This marks by far the worst quarter on record. The kiwi is close to closing the day above 0.6770 the March 2019 high, we should see an upside bias heading into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6768
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6655- 0.6779
A slumping US Dollar (USD) Monday extended the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) topside to 0.6715 as risk sentiment improved on coronavirus vaccine headlines. The kiwi seems to have consolidated around 0.6690 levels and may just waiver around here until clear direction is known later in the week after key data releases Thursday. The Federal Reserve Statement will be important as the Fed may look to reinforce its new inflation scenario by adding more stimulus or will they wait until after the US election. NZ GDP for the quarter ending June 30th prints as well with a range of expectations expected on the outcome with much speculation on how bad the number could be. Forecast is for somewhere around -12%, or anything between -8.0% and -17.0% as a range. Clearly this announcement will make the kiwi extremely volatile so clients exposed to the greenback and needing to convert should consider beforehand if you need to take risk off the table. Especially USD buyers as current prices look ok above 0.6600 – support at 0.6500 isn’t far away.
Current Level: 0.6696
Last Weeks Range: 0.6601-0.6717
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regained some of the early week losses Wednesday after being down around 0.6600 levels, climbing back to 0.6705 after equity markets also paired losses. Any momentum was short lived with equities back taking on losses as “risk markets” deteriorated. US Unemployment numbers for the past week released fairly benign at 884k after 838k was anticipated – at least the weekly numbers are trending down, a positive sign after the incredible damage coronavirus has done to the US economy. As the summer months end and the payroll benefits stop, we could see numbers climb back up again. Looking into next week we have a busy week, FOMC Statement, US Retail Sales and the one we have been looking forward to- NZ second quarter GDP with expectations we could see a drop of around 17% ending June 2020. This would not be NZD supportive.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6658
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6600- 0.6720
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eased slightly off the weekly open falling below 0.6700 to 0.6690 Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD). US Labor Day holiday Monday made for thin market conditions and added volatility. The kiwi has kept its offered bias after last week’s words from the RBNZ when they signalled prospects of loosening monetary policy and venturing into negative rates territory if inflation stays low. Investors are back into the big dollar after Non-Farm Payrolls and US Unemployment dropped to a staggering 8.4% from 10.2% in July. Also of note is the heightened geopolitical tensions between China and US negotiators with the US considering a ban of all components from Chinese chipmaker SMIC. US CPI prints at the closure of the week. Expected direction: NZD to taper off towards the 0.6580 support area.
Current Level: 0.6688
Last Weeks Range: 0.6676-0.6788
The New Zealand Dollar pushed through the prior high of 0.6700 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) to reach a mid-July 2019 high of 0.6788 before risk sentiment slumped taking price lower into Friday. The RBNZ signalled no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar being overvalued and started conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates in efforts to ward off low inflation. US Jobless claims data fell under 1m for the first time in a while with just under 882,000 people filing for benefits last week an improvement on recent numbers and perhaps a sign of overall improvement. Markets should thin out towards the close as markets kick off summer holidays but expect some volatility around tonight’s Non-Farm payroll release for August. On the chart we see relief around 0.6680 support with the kiwi looking reasonably stable on further dips.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6706
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6636- 0.6788
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached fresh highs late last week against the US Dollar (USD) nudging through 0.6700 the weekly high last seen in July 2019. Prices into Tuesday have carried on higher with the kiwi around the 0.6750 area. The next target for the NZD is 0.6760 resistance then 0.6900. US weakness and equity /commodity strength of late from a dovish Fed has seen the NZD well supported on dips. Looking ahead we have Non-Farm employment releasing at week’s end and the US Unemployment Rate. We think the kiwi may consolidate around these levels before moving higher towards the end of the week.
Current Level: 0.6750
Last Weeks Range: 0.6521-0.6763
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was feeling fairly chirpy heading into Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6570 but was catapulted to 0.6670 Friday after the Federal Reserve spoke. The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a shift to their inflation goal of 2.0%. The Fed will target average inflation and perhaps employment in periods when inflation has been below 2.0%. This is a move which will see lower borrowing costs for some time. This won’t lead to any significant changes to the way the Fed is currently running monetary policy because it already incorporated these changes formally earlier. Fed chairman Powell said the revamp was to address the following- “reality of a quite difficult macroeconomic context of low interest rates, low inflation, relatively low productivity, slow growth and those kinds of things”. What may happen from here is that the US Dollar could lose its yield edge and decline further long term. This in effect could support more upside bias for the kiwi. We could get more market moving- Jackson Hole headlines before the week closes.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6658
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6514- 0.6674
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a high of 0.6650 earlier this week against the US Dollar (USD) but the momentum couldn’t be sustained. A risk off mood stemming from a dovish Federal Reserve after the FOMC minutes drove the kiwi lower, the kiwi reversing all its gains to 0.6495 into Friday, a 3 July low. US weekly Jobless claims were higher than predicted at 1.106M vs 930K and continuing claims fell 633K to 14.84M. We are reminded that the US economy will no doubt encounter some headwinds on the road back from coronavirus. Based on a dovish RBNZ recently we expect the kiwi to retest 0.6370 support in the following sessions.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6533
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6488- 0.6650
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.6540 into the weekly close against the US Dollar (USD), dropping further into the open Monday to 0.6520. Tuesday’s markets are feeling better about things with risk sentiment improving as trade negotiations between China and the US paused. Tensions are still simmering away in the background however with more restrictions on Huawei in the US overnight. Also of note boosting risk was the Peoples Bank of China injecting further stimulus to the Chinese economy with an additional 101B while leaving the price of funding the same. The kiwi bounced to 0.6565 on the news. With an extremely quiet week of economic data we expect geopolitical events to dictate direction. Expected direction: lower kiwi to test 0.6400
Current Level: 0.6556
Last Weeks Range: 0.6520-0.6626
Recent rises in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) were halted against the US Dollar (USD) as price slipped below key support at 0.6580 to 0.6540 into Friday. The RBNZ left the cash rate on hold at 0.25% but increased the asset purchasing program from 60B to 100B to enable cheap cash to flow through the economy longer. Governor has not written off taking the cash rate into negative territory just yet and has left this open as an option if the economic situation deteriorates. US jobs data printed well overnight falling to 963,000 from 1.1M people anticipated, the first time since March 21st the figure has been below the 1 Million mark. The data brought buyers back into the USD taking price down the bottom of a 4-week range to 0.6535. Further risk lies to the downside for the kiwi heading into US Retail Sales tonight.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6536
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6523- 0.6625
Risks lie to the downside for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week with the RBNZ announcement looming tomorrow. The kiwi was sold on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) recovered off its lows and risk markets were slammed. Talk of President Trump banning WeChat and TikTok in the US had risk players reaching for the safer USD. This week’s RBNZ is the main event with talk of a dovish read and possibility of further govt stimulus on the horizon. With possible intention to increase their LSAP programme currently from 60B to 90B by purchasing foreign assets and or implementing negative interest rates this could cause the kiwi to underperform. Expected direction this week: Retest of the daily support line at 0.6520.
Current Level: 0.6586
Last Weeks Range: 0.6578-0.6715
The US Dollar (USD) continues to be sold off in “risk on” conditions against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the kiwi surging to near December 2019 highs to 0.6684. Price action over the remainder of the week will depend on the Non-Farm Payroll result tonight which according to President Trump is going to be a fantastic release. If we go off ADP employment yesterday which published below expectation, NFP could be a fizzer. Next week’s RBNZ rate announcement and policy statement could start to put pressure on the kiwi with expectations of an increase to the current bond buying programme in the throws.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6683
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6575- 0.6689
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds just above the 0.6600 area Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) after underperforming into the weekly close from a high of 0.6715. The rebound in the US Dollar from better US manufacturing and end of month rebalancing led to investors taking profits on US Dollar short positions. The question is whether the move is more rebound or full on comeback. Certainly better manufacturing drove fresh investment into the USD. Coronavirus concerns still weigh heavily on the US Dollar as we head into the week’s end Non-Farm Payroll release. Tomorrow’s NZ unemployment rate releases and should show a small rise to 5.5% from 4.2% in the second quarter which would mark an extremely desirable result. We favour further climbs in the kiwi. Expected weekly direction: Retest of the high of 0.6715
Current Level: 0.6614
Last Weeks Range: 0.6575-0.6715
After an up and down week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross, the pair finally found some direction Friday. The US second quarter GDP number we had all been waiting for printed an unbelievable -32.9% making it the worst quarterly fall ever. This pushes the US economy into a formal recession after first quarter GDP reported -4.8%. The question now with coronavirus still weighing down the US economy is how far will poor economic data extend. Unless coronavirus is contained, and new virus numbers drop third quarter GDP and possibly 4th quarter are likely to be just as bad. Making matters worse for the greenback was last night’s jobless claims which came in close to expectations at 1.43M but this number is still extremely unacceptable. The US Dollar slump needs to find support or the kiwi will undoubtedly travel higher. Next week’s NZ unemployment rate and US NFP on the calendar are the focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6689
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6620- 0.6707
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its quest higher Monday reaching 0.6690 early Tuesday morning against the US Dollar (USD). Big Dollar weakness is the main driver of recent moves extending its run of declines. We favour further NZD momentum to the top side as the currency eyes the previous high of 0.6750 late 2019. A slew of US data publishes this week with the main event FOMC Funds Rate and statement Thursday followed by advanced GDP for the second quarter ending June. This is the official day we learn how big the hole is in the US economy, with expectations that the growth figure is due to release at a staggering -35%. There are growing concerns the Federal Government will announce another fiscal stimulus package. One that more than likely won’t include a further extension of the 600B in wage subsidies that US individuals and businesses have become reliant on during the coronavirus pandemic. At some stage over the week we could see a pullback of the NZD but this could be followed by further upside action.
Current Level: 0.6701
Last Weeks Range: 0.6558-0.6693
After spending nearly 3 weeks ranging between the broad parameters of 0.6500 and 0.6600, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) made a decisive break to the topside vs the United States dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s overnight session. Broad based USD weakness and general positive risk sentiment were the underlying drivers of the move, but a strong Australian dollar didn’t hurt either helping to drag the NZD higher. The NZD traded to 0.6689, before last night’s release of US weekly unemployment claims, which came in higher than expected, triggered a “risk off” correction lower across many markets. As long as the NZDUSD pair can hold above 0.6600, the upside bias remains and the kiwi could take aim at the early January high around 0.6750. That level should provide some significant resistance, however. Clients looking to convert NZD to USD should take advantage of any move toward that resistance level.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6635
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6532 – 0.6689
Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) sits right at the top of the recent range this morning at 0.6580. Risk factors have supported the kiwi together with low coronavirus numbers of late contributing to positive sentiment. The kiwi seems to be riding off the back of the AUD as mining numbers go through the roof. Looking ahead we have no local data to get excited about with only unemployment claims in the US at week’s end which could add the usual volatility. Positive coronavirus vaccine headlines have also boosted risk markets of late and especially with published Oxford University trials going so well overnight. If the kiwi sneaks past 0.6620 we could see more topside action with 0.6700 the high of December 2019 in its sights.
Current Level: 0.6582
Last Weeks Range: 0.6503-0.6586
Equities were all lower overnight and so was the Kiwi to 0.6530. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades into Friday a tad lower than the weekly open of 0.6565 against the US Dollar (USD). It’s been more risk off bias over the past 48 hours as investors start to really worry about coronavirus cases around the globe and the prospects of a V shaped recovery. We have however seen some optimism with a vaccine but it’s all just speculation at the moment and lacks any real certainty. US Retail Sales came in at 7.5% vs 5.0% predicted for June but with a resurgent Covid these numbers could dip again in July as unemployment rises. This number comes after a historic 18.2% rise in May. Support is 0.6500 with the 20-day moving average below price on the daily chart potentially hinting of higher highs to come.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6540
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6502- 0.6593
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off 0.6590 early Tuesday against the US Dollar after a dose of early week risk on sentiment. This all changed however with the mood deteriorating reversing price to 0.6530 midday. National leader Todd Muller has resigned this morning with the election 2 months away which has investors selling the kiwi. US Dollar strength also improved overnight assisting with taking price lower. Second quarter CPI prints Thursday is expected to release a negative inflationary figure around -1.5% which before US Retail Sales. There is growing expectation the RBNZ will expand its QE program at the August meeting saying they could deploy alternative monetary policy in the form of offshore asset purchases. Until then the kiwi will remain under pressure.
Current Level: 0.6531
Last Weeks Range: 0.6519-0.6599
In a series of higher highs and higher lows this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke key resistance at 0.6580 Thursday against the US Dollar (USD) as markets continued with the risk on theme. Early Friday sessions weren’t so NZD supportive when the mood towards risk changed hands taking the NZD lower to 0.6550 as market anxiety towards coronavirus reared up again. The overall concern for the shape of the global economy hit equities along with a further 60,000 new cases reported in the US. However, we did see some good news come out of the US when Jobless claims printed better than expected overnight with 1.3M additional people claiming benefits ending the 4th July week. This is about 100,000 less than the prior week showing the statistic is slowly heading in the right direction. However, the overall number remains more than double the level seen during the GFC. The total number now claiming benefits rose to 33M in total. There is growing expectation the RBNZ will expand its QE program at the August meeting saying they could deploy alternative monetary policy in the form of offshore asset purchases. Until then the kiwi could remain well supported on dips singing from the treetops.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6551
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6518- 0.6599
Early week risk on market tone took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6570 Monday before dropping slightly and regaining the upper hand back to 0.6560 into Tuesday. US Manufacturing bounced back to 57.1 on the index from 50.0 expected back to pre- coronavirus levels in February mirroring the improvements seen in the economy earlier in the year. It’s the largest again on record which was to be expected given the US economy has pretty much been closed down. Locally we have coronavirus back under control amid speculation NZ could be hit with a second wave panic. This alone holds the kiwi in good light with countries like the US still battling to control it, especially in Florida and Texas. Later in the week we have the normal US jobs numbers. The kiwi looks to push higher, it won’t take much to break long term resistance at 0.6580 with the next target at 0.6750
Current Level: 0.6558
Last Weeks Range: 0.6385-0.6597
After dipping to 0.6385 earlier this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered Wednesday to reach a fresh 3 week high of 0.6540 against the US Dollar (USD). Risk improved with investors feeling better about coronavirus vaccine prospects and US Non-Farm Payroll figures. NFP released a day early (Friday morning) because of the 4th of July US holiday tomorrow. Results surprised to the upside when figures released showed the labour market accelerated in June with gains of people back entering the workforce of 4.8M compared to 3.0M. Unemployment dropped to 11.1% from 13.3% in May having peaked at 14.7%. Equity markets rose off the back taking the kiwi with it. The kiwi looks to target the prior high at 0.6580 from early June.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6513
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6385- 0.6535
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross is flat this week trading around 0.6425. Dips to 0.6400 have been very well supported over the past fortnight with the top of the recent band at 0.6530 looking the preferred scenario if risk markets allow. A mixed bag of results recently has investors unsure of direction for the USD. Pending Home Sales this morning spiked to 44.3% in May a record number compared with April’s -21.8% showing the largest 1 month jump in the history of surveyed results. June figures will no doubt represent the true picture of the housing market in the US I’m sure. Coronavirus second wave is back making headlines and doesn’t look good with several states out of control. Data towards the end of the week, US Non-Farm Payroll and the Unemployment Rate shouldn’t be USD supportive, but then again if risk mood falters we could see the kiwi test the bottom end of the range.
Current Level: 0.9345
Last Weeks Range: 0.6399 – 0.6532
The RBNZ announcement Wednesday sent the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6410 into Friday sessions. A dovish stance by Governor Orr and a hint of possibly increasing the QE stimulus package if the economic situation worsened pressured the kiwi. A downturn in risk sentiment has lingeried on the back of global coronavirus worries along with the IMF downgrading the global outlook could further weigh on the kiwi into the weekly close. US Weekly job losses ending 19th June reached 1.5M a little higher than economic forecasts, highlighting that coronavirus led layoffs are still elevated, the second week in a row numbers have been higher than estimates. Heavy support seen at 0.6380 with a number of bounces higher from this level, but the kiwi really has its work cut out over the next few weeks if a retest of the previous high at 0.6580 is to eventuate.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6419
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6380- 0.6532
After gapping to 0.6380 at the weekly open the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retraced last week’s moves trading back to 0.6500 into Tuesday sessions. As risk interest improved overnight equities rose along with coronavirus hopes. The US Dollar (USD) looks in a spot of bother falling on fears coronavirus could continue to spike in key states of Florida, Arizona, and California. To add to the concern the WHO reported “a new and dangerous phase” as daily Covid-19 cases hit record highs. The RBNZ cash rate is tomorrow along with their policy statement – a dovish stance is predicted with the rate to remain unchanged at 0.25% for some time. The next target in the cross is the recent high at 0.6585 – through here and the chart shows no roadblocks through 0.6750, the 2020 high. Medium trend is higher while the long term forecast in the cross is much, much lower.
Current Level: 0.6477
Last Weeks Range: 0.6381-0.6509
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has drifted around 0.6450 levels this week against the US Dollar (USD). We did see a brief stint to 0.6505 but with poor GDP figures releasing this sent the kiwi lower. First quarter GDP, released at -1.6% vs -1.0% predicted, the largest first quarter drop in 29 years as the country feels the effects of lockdown scenarios on the economy. Next week’s RBNZ Cash rate is Wednesday with no change expected from 0.25% through to March 2021 but could still add volatility. US Jobs numbers for the week ending 13 June came in poor at 1.5M vs 1.3M expected which had a benign effect on the cross. US first quarter GDP prints late next week on the calendar which should highlight early coronavirus effects on the economy and a slide of about 5% in growth. Some are saying the prior high at 0.6580 could remain the high for some time with declines in store, but as long as NZ doesn’t have a wave 2 Covid-19 blowout we should see price travel higher.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6417
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6380- 0.6505
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off the early Monday low of 0.6380 to 0.6500 as risk markets rallied off the back of positive closes in equity markets. The US Fed boosted confidence by saying they were expanding their “main street” lending program to provide access to credit for non-profit organisations. They are also changing up their bond buying program and how they purchase bonds. Amidst NZ first quarter GDP announced Thursday we have a slew of US data including Retails Sales for May and Building Permits to look forward to. We are 100 points shy of retesting last week’s highs at 0.6580 providing data favours the kiwi bias.
Current Level: 0.6483
Last Weeks Range: 0.6381-0.6583
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell from its recent lofty heights against the US Dollar (USD) as the risk mood deteriorated. Yesterday’s Fed decision has resulted in fresh downside pressure from dovish comments, taking it from the high of 0.6585 to 0.6400 Friday lunch. US Jobless claims totalled 1.5M last week compared to 1.6M the previous week and 355k fewer than the week before with the total claims number falling for 10 straight weeks. Continuing claims are dropping as consumer facing staff hire back employees as they re-open. The kiwi now hovers in a tender spot as investors lock in short profits and others consider whether the NZD has done its dash topside. Buyers of USD should consider here, certainly if we see further falls below 0.6370 we could be in for more of a slide.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6419
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6392- 0.6581
Nothing seems to be able to stop the rise of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) at the moment versus the US Dollar (USD) scaling 0.6577 midday today. Risk mood is the main driver of the kiwi together with zero coronavirus at all in NZ and a broad based weakness in the big dollar. US equity markets have erased all of the 2020 earlier losses returning to prior highs taking anything risk related with it. The kiwi has now outperformed the USD four straight weeks from the low of 0.5930 mid May. The next key level for the NZD is the yearly open high of 0.6720 – we could see a road block here if kiwi momentum continues. The Fed cash rate and monetary statement publishes Thursday with no expectation of a shift from the 0.25%, but no doubt we will see plenty of debate over the recent almost unbelievable jobs numbers. Non-Farm payroll numbers reported a rise of 2.5M in the number of employed people compared to forecast contraction of -7.75M.
Current Level: 0.6544
Last Weeks Range: 0.6203-0.6578
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has surged off the weekly open of 0.6190 reaching 0.6395 into Wednesday. This move is 2.7% up on the US Dollar (USD) on the week as the kiwi continues into new ground. We have seen the kiwi rise 3 weeks in a row from the low of 0.5935 in what has been an incredible, somewhat unfounded, rise. The kiwi has become a sort of safe haven over the last week or two as coronavirus numbers suggest only a single person in NZ has the virus. Together with US weakness investors have exited from USD positions as the situation with the murder of George Floyd causes the US to burn and loot as coronavirus remains out of control. Data in the US has been rubbish – unemployment a real problem, all said and done we should see further upside in the NZD for a few days ahead.
Current Level: 0.6422
Last Weeks Range: 0.6149-0.6414
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke through the prior high at 0.62175 midweek on its way to post a 3 March high of 0.6230 against the US Dollar (USD). The NZ Financial stability Report confirmed the NZ economy was positioned well to recover from the grip of coronavirus in due time. Seems the RBNZ are very optimistic of a domestic recovery assisted by the govt’s wage subsidy scheme and other factors. The move to alert level 1 has been too slow and will affect growth long term. Expect the kiwi to plunge below 0.6000 in the coming weeks as risk sentiment drops and the coronavirus effects on global growth hits home. For now the NZD struggles to push past 0.6230 and could drift lower towards the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6190
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6082- 0.6231
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) continues to trade within a 0.5925-0.6170 band with initial support at the 0.6000 level. Support remains firm above the 0.6000 level as the economy gradually reopens and the global perception that we have Covid-19 under control remains. However, once the wage subsidies expire and unemployment data starts to tick higher, the NZD should struggle to hold levels above the 0.6100 level with any break of the 0.5925 mark targeting a pull back to the 0.5850 level.
Current Level: 0.6104
Last Weeks Range: 0.5935-0.6155
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be well supported on dips against the US Dollar (USD) heading into the weekly close. The Wednesday daily close above 0.6140 was significant from the prior high around mid-March and shows the willingness of risk buyers of the kiwi to push the pair into fresh territory. Retail Sales printed up on expectations of -1.5% to -0.7% for April boosting the NZD post release. US jobs numbers had no impact on the cross after printing last night with -2.44M filing for unemployment ending the prior week. After reversing off 0.5920 levels early in the week the cross looks to have met resistance around 0.6150 and has consolidated Friday in the 0.6130 zone. Risks ahead are that the pair could drop back below the trend line under 0.6000 however for now bulls remain in control.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6116
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5929- 0.6158
Risk markets started the week on the front foot with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversing off last week’s low at 0.5915 against the US Dollar (USD) to smash through 0.6000 psychological level to make a high Tuesday of 0.6045. Equity markets and risk associated products are all higher Monday with Fed Chairman Powell’s ongoing support in the fight against coronavirus and a possible vaccine from American Biotechnology company Moderna showing positive early results from its first 45 human trial cases. All cases have developed crucial coronavirus antibodies. US Retail Sales for April printed worse than expected at -16.4% (-12.0% expected) with any risk off mood superseded by vaccine headlines. Topside momentum in the kiwi is extremely limited with anything around 0.6150 looking very overbought. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday.
Last Weeks Range: 0.5921-0.6122
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost its mojo during trading this week coming off 0.6140 against the US Dollar (USD) falling below the pivotal physiological level at 0.6000 to 0.5960. Straight off the bat the kiwi was on the backfoot when ANZ Business Confidence printed poor, followed by Wednesday’s RBNZ key monetary policy and rate announcement. The benchmark rate remains unchanged at 0.25% but Orr’s comments around negative rates towards the end of the year spooked markets as investors exited the kiwi. Orr increased the QE package to 60B which was expected but his overall dovish outlook didn’t go unnoticed. The decline in the kiwi was also boosted by broad based flight to safe haven assets as Federal Reserve’s Powell pushed back on negative rates at the detriment of President Trump’s displeasure. Powell spoke to a prolonged economic downturn and a slower recovery than first thought. To make matters worse it seems markets are bracing for US and China less than amicable relations ahead. US employment numbers for last week were the only positive with 2.9M filing for unemployment- these numbers are trending down w/w. With the cross hovering around 0.6000 we expect a little support for the kiwi prior to the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5998
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5955- 0.6155
Risk currencies turned down Tuesday with the New Zealand Dollar dropping from 0.6140 levels to 0.6050 against the US Dollar (USD) midday. Better than predicted Non-Farm Payroll together with the Chinese Central Bank saying they would use more powerful monetary methods to combat coronavirus took risk crosses on a bull run last week until topside momentum ran dry. Key on the calendar this week is tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement with no change expected from 0.25% but further stimulus could be on the agenda as the NZ economy battles to come back from coronavirus. Later in the week the NZ government will announce its 2020 Annual Budget. Expectations are that the govt will largely put aside priorities this year, outlined late last year as the country concentrates on providing building blocks to consumers in response to plans for an economic recovery. The kiwi is trading at the bottom of a bullish channel from late March with downside for the moment limited.
Current Level: 0.6057
Last Weeks Range: 0.5995-0.6155
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 0.6100 levels this week against the US Dollar (USD) coming off the back of several factors. Risk sentiment improved yesterday on positive and somewhat surprising Chinese data with Trade Balance printing at 318B compared to the 6.4B expected along with equity markets posting gains with US indices improving over 1% overnight. Data released from Wednesday’s NZ Unemployment figures showed a jump of 5,000 filed in the March quarter to take the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.0% slightly better than the expected 4.4%. Clearly these first quarter figures only partially reflect the overall economic fallout from coronavirus with expectations of employment and growth to rise significantly over the second and third periods of 2020. We expect setbacks to be well supported over the coming days as the kiwi makes a run for last week’s high at 0.6175
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6091
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5993- 0.6099
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) optimism continues to push the kiwi higher against a struggling US Dollar (USD). Last week’s early surge to 0.6175 was a fresh 7 week high before bears sold the kiwi on a lack of appetite for risk down to 0.6050. The bearish tone continued Monday before things improved Tuesday with price back at 0.6050. NZ publishes unemployment numbers for the first quarter tomorrow before the US non-farm payroll numbers publish Friday. These two results will mark two vastly different results, although the NZ unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4% from 4.0% it’s not a shadow on the dire print expected in the US when the April unemployment numbers print at a staggering 21M with the unemployment rate to jump towards 16.0% from 4.4% for March. It’s hard to know what impact this will have on the currency cross but based on 4 April (March results) this should weaken the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.6054
Last Weeks Range: 0.5992-0.6175
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades at 0.6055 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing early Tuesday. After a short stint testing the 0.6000 key level Monday the kiwi has been well supported outperforming the big dollar. NZ coronavirus numbers have continued to print lower in the past few days with level 3 lockdown now in place, markets are feeling optimistic of the overall outlook post coronavirus elimination. The federal funds rate is announced tomorrow with no forecast for any change from the current -0.25%. Federal Reserve easing has been working over the previous weeks with massive assistance to credit markets. The US has a way to go to control coronavirus with daily numbers and deaths still high which could weigh on overall risk. Topside bias in the NZD we think is limited to 0.6100, buyers of USD should consider at current levels.
Current Level: 0.6082
Last Weeks Range: 0.5910-0.6087
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stayed within recent ranges over the week against the US Dollar (USD) with investors unsure of big dollar direction. The US released a worse than expected jobless claims report for the week ending April 18 with a further 4.4M people filing for unemployment. This was seen by some as a positive result with recent weekly numbers perhaps passing the peak. A total of 26M people in the US have lost their jobs in the past 5 weeks, which is approximately 16% of the total workforce, as a result the jobs created since 2010 have been completely wiped out. The House has finally passed a 484B small business package relief bill with the Dems and Republicans finally agreeing albeit probably two weeks late. With price around the 0.6000 zone we expect support in the kiwi to continue through to 0.6100 in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5990
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5909- 0.6090
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued last week’s momentum into Tuesday travelling to 0.6090 against the US Dollar (USD). NZ will exit level 4 lockdown on the 27th April confirmed yesterday into a lesser relaxed level 3 scenario which boosted support for the kiwi. Overnight crude prices hit a 21 year low and closed below zero as China stockpiles cheap product. This took risk assets lower, the NZD retracing earlier moves to 0.6030. Investors are still extremely cautious with many countries looking at easing lockdown/movement restrictions linking to possible second wave outbreaks. Covid-19 remains the driver of risk as we head into another Friday US unemployment number. We expect a continuation of the recent higher highs and higher low pattern with a break above 0.6130 in the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6024
Last Weeks Range: 0.5922-0.6128
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is holding off support at 0.6040 this week after rising to 0.6130 early today against the US Dollar (USD) continuing its two week bullish move from 0.5850 early April. In a press conference earlier today President Trump announced he was pulling his funding to the W.H.O while he investigates its performance in minimising the coronavirus. Fed’s Evans commented this morning saying “many many things must go right for the US economy to recover quickly from coronavirus”, he said the economic downturn will be deep, and we could see “unimaginable bad data for the second quarter”. Its corporate earnings season in the USA with Wells Fargo kicking off with dramatic declines to profit and high loan failures suffered during coronavirus. Goldman Sachs expects the biggest decline in manufacturing output since the Second World War. For now the kiwi has gained support on risk on cues and solid Chinese Trade data with the NZ govt preparing to add fresh stimulus to contain a potential rise to unemployment. We see the NZD rising further to test early March’s 0.6200
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6075
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5940- 0.6130
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has performed well against the US Dollar pushing up to 0.5960 Tuesday with improved risk sentiment. Coronavirus numbers out of key places such as Italy, Spain and crucially New York look to be on the improve and encouraging. US equities rose over 7% overnight on better optimism. What’s interesting is over 180 people per day are dying at home in NY City are not being counted in the official numbers, undercounting the total victims. President Trump has reportedly come to an arrangement with 3M for them to provide 166 million N95 respirator masks to be provided to healthcare workers over the coming months. Wow, that’s a lot of masks. New Zealand Treasury announced the syndicated tap of the 1.5% coupon 15 May 2031 nominal Bond. The Treasury expects to sell at least 2.0Billion of the 15 May 2031 bond. The Bond has been well received by offshore investors and should hold the kiwi up for a decent period going forward. The NZD should be well supported on dips and should hold above 0.5860 for a while.
Current Level: 0.5938
Last Weeks Range: 0.5843-0.6037
The economic fallout from the coronavirus is painting an ugly picture of pessimism across the planet. The disturbing outbreak in the US and the death tolls in France, Spain and Germany have extended lockdowns are all contributing to the poor mood. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded 120 points lower than the weekly open price of 0.6030 at 0.5910. Finance Minister Robertson commented saying government debt will rise to well over 25% of GDP has not helped the kiwi cause. Overnight the number of Americans who filed for unemployment hit an all time high record of 6.648Million double the number from last week’s 3,600,000. This is an unprecedented 10Million people in two weeks. Non-Farm Payroll tonight is expected to also be an ugly result with numbers expected to be a contraction of 100,000 from the February 273,000 jobs added. If this happens it will increase the nation’s unemployment from 3.5% to 3.8%. It’s possible this data is already factored into the NZDUSD curve but if not the kiwi could take on water post release as investors buy the safer USD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5915
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5876- 0.6066
US President Trump has said a nationwide lockdown (stay home) order is “pretty unlikely”- wow. Price hovers just off the weekly open in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair at 0.6020 with a whopping 5.6% gain last week by the kiwi. However, from current levels topside bias is limited. Fibonacci key levels show that the cross will bounce lower off resistance at 0.6040 retracing moves back towards 0.5850 in the coming days/weeks. ANZ business confidence prints today with no one expecting a positive number. The release wont shift price much but if anything could put the NZD under a little pressure. NY has reported 253 more coronavirus deaths with the FDA given emergency approval to distribute millions of doses of the antimalarial drug chloroquine to US hospitals. The FDA says it’s worth the risk of trying an unproven treatment to seriously ill people. Clients who require USD, these levels represent good buying.
Current Level: 0.6022
Last Weeks Range: 0.5657-0.6068
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has risen to 0.5960 this week coming off a low of 0.5590 against the US Dollar (USD). Investors however do remain watchful despite the approval of the Senate’s 2.2Billion stimulus package. The vote was unanimous as it could have been at 96-0 which would supply billions of dollars in credit to struggling industries. Direct cash payments to Americans also. Covid-19 risks continue to disrupt the global economy with huge rises in cases. The most significant data release published for some time printed early this morning – US Unemployment claims which didn’t disappoint. Numbers of people filing for the unemployment benefit last week were 3,283,000 well over the estimated 1,648,000 expected. For now if you are in need of USD please consider these levels as fundamental currency bias tracks the kiwi lower.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5952
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5598- 0.5982
From 11.59 Wednesday the NZ alert level will lift from level 3 to level 4 which means all non-essential businesses will close at that time including bars restaurants, cinemas and playgrounds. Only essential services will remain open such as grocery providers and chemists. Today at 1.00pm the govt confirmed 40 new cases of the virus including “potential” positive results which takes the NZ total to 155 confirmed. Most cases are linked to overseas travel or known sources however 4 are being treated as community transmissions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to struggle against the US Dollar (USD) amid bouts of bullishness, this week’s push higher from the low of 0.5585 sees the kiwi regaining support above 0.5750. This momentum will only be temporary with the overwhelming bearish bias remaining for some time yet. Certainly good levels for buyers of USD to consider before the kiwi takes another turn lower.
Last Weeks Range:
News this morning from Phil Goff: He has closed Auckland Libraries, public swimming pools and other community facilities for at least a fortnight as the country’s coronavirus infections increase. This sent the kiwi spiralling south once again- seems to be a trend developing here (sarcastic) to 0.5620. This follows last night’s announcement by PM Ardern that the NZ borders would close to all non-residents – rallying the NZD off 0.5470 to 0.5913 over several hours into early Friday. US Republicans are weighing up “helicopter” money to individuals to the tune of $1200 each with President Trump saying he is considering one off grants to US States as needed to fight coronavirus. Buyers of USD should be considering levels above 0.5600 as the kiwi falls further into the abyss.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5735
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5469- 0.6141
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains relatively solid during Monday, trading around the 0.6050 mark against the US Dollar (USD). A short trip to 0.6120 overnight saw sellers of the kiwi return and take the pair lower. Both NZ and USD central banks announced economic coronavirus measures with the RBNZ cutting rates to an unprecedented 0.25% the lowest it has ever been from 1.00% in a surprise meeting Monday. The Federal Reserve also cut their benchmark cash rate to 0.25% from 1.25% a massive 1.0% to keep the economy flowing. The cuts are designed to prevent a credit crunch and financial meltdown seen last during the 2008 GFC a decade ago. Ultimately this will mitigate strains on any supply of credit to households and businesses. Trump commented this morning that he recommends gatherings of no more than 10 people but has not yet closed the border, we suspect this will happen within the next day or so. At 2pm today the NZ govt will announce a significant fiscal package. Downside bias will remain for some time in the pair but 0.6000 holds decent phycological support. It’s only a matter of time before this is tested.
Current Level: 0.6050
Last Weeks Range: 0.5984-0.6437
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finally broke below recent support around the 0.6200 level against the US Dollar (USD) as the coronavirus crisis intensifies worldwide. Fear and panic was the theme into Thursday, as extreme measures are taken around the globe to contain the outbreak. Investors were initially spooked by President Trump’s travel ban, restricting flights from Europe over the next 30 days. This is beginning to feel a lot worse than the financial crisis of 2008. We are literally unsure on a daily basis how this virus will roll, anything could happen. Downside bias will remain for some time in the cross – I fully expect to be pricing buyers of USD in the high 0.50’s soon.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6271
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6030- 0.6440
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was pushed out of bed Monday falling to 0.6055 in what was said to be a “flash crash” one off event. Equity markets and coronavirus updates had finally fatigued the markets with most indices posting heavy losses over the weekend as coronavirus infections crack the ton. Crude prices also caused a heavy risk off tone with OPEC and Russia not agreeing on production slashes to alleviate declining demand. The Saudi’s stepped in offering massive discounted prices and ramping up production. The price of Crude dropped over 21% and sent currency markets in a flurry. The good news for buyers of USD is that price during overnight sessions Monday returned to pre-crash levels at 0.6350 and extended to 0.6450 briefly before settling around 0.6340 again. From here it’s anyone’s guess as to direction. We will see a heavy dose of volatility over the rest of the week making it exceptionally hard to call. We may get direction cues today when RBNZ’s Adrian Ore speaks on unconventional monetary policy.
Current Level: 0.6333
Last Weeks Range: 0.6006-0.6446
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had its best week yet in 2020 posting a fresh high of 0.6333 against the US Dollar (USD) a far cry from last week’s close of 0.6190. The defiant kiwi has hung in there surprisingly, trading around the 0.6300 level midday Friday. Signs that the RBNZ were likely to bring forward their next policy meeting went by the by with 25th March date still anticipated where the central bank is expected to cut rates from the current 1.00% to boost coronavirus economic woes. The Federal Reserve cut rates to 1.25% from 1.75% saying the country’s economy remains strong but global virus fears will start to weigh on the economy in first quarter growth. The kiwi surges higher post cut reversing all of the prior week losses. From here things still have a downward bias with the massive uncertainty with coronavirus. We believe it’s only a matter of time before we see the cross retest the 0.6200 low.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6314
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6193- 0.6333
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has suffered dramatically over the past week with risk aversion driving it to the lowest levels in a decade against the United States dollar (USD). The NZDUSD traded to a low of 0.6191 in the latter stages of last week and the pair has been volatile since. We did get bounce up to 0.6278 last night, but in the past few hours the NZD has started to melt away again. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is now expected to cut interest rate at their next meeting on the 25th March, or they may even go earlier in some sort of coordinated action with other major central banks. It does seem only a matter of time before the US Fed act with Chairman Powell releasing a statement late last week saying “We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy”. In the current environment it’s hard to see any meaningful recovery in the NZDUSD rate. On the other side of the equation, the pair has fallen a long way in recent weeks and we would need to see the epidemic get significantly worse and/or further stock market declines before the market decides to take the kiwi lower towards the next major level of support around 0.5950. We are looking for choppy trading between the broad parameters of 0.6150 and 0.6350 over the coming week.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6191-0.6358
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted a high of 0.6357 earlier in the week against the US Dollar (USD) recovering from the weekly close of 0.6305 but with coronavirus fears elevated price drifted lower to 0.6285 a mid-October 2019 level into Friday. ANZ Business Confidence data was soft and US equities have been liquidated with indices down over 10% for the week off the back of coronavirus fears. Making matters worse for the kiwi was improving US data with Core Durable Sales and Pending Home Sales coming in better than expected with a sharp increase in the number of homes sold in January. Next week’s Non-Farm Payroll figures release along with US employment the focus. Coronavirus will continue to weigh down the kiwi until we see improvements in affected numbers with global economic risks weighing heavy. Support is seen at 0.6250, we think this could be tested next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6305
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6283- 0.6357
Although the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed back to 0.6535 levels prior to last week’s close against the US Dollar (USD) the kiwi it is still under enormous pressures. Coronavirus fears are still the main headline with more new cases and deaths every day increasing causing havoc around the world. Yesterday’s NZ Retail Sales was softer than expected at 0.5% following worse than expected US Manufacturing data. World equity prices have fallen overnight along with Crude Oil – the Nasdaq falling over 4%. These types of dips followed by further drops in the coming sessions/days could spark mass panic if coronavirus worsens. Current levels around 0.6340 could look decisively good if we are right and the kiwi is sold off to new depths. Looking ahead we have q/q GDP and US Consumer confidence.
Current Level: 0.6342
Last Weeks Range: 0.6303-0.6441
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen victim to offshore developments and US Dollar (USD strength). Kicking off the week around 0.6440 mark it has declined into low 0.63’s to 0.6330 Friday lunch a November 2019 low. US data has been outstanding this week with Building permits, Manufacturing and Producer prices all much higher than markets were expecting. Coronavirus risks haven’t really affected risk sentiment as much as the previous weeks but the situation is far from over. The Fed maintained its current monetary policy stance, confirming at the minutes that rates would remain low for some time and the economy was showing resilience. A break below the multi-year low at 0.6220 should indicate further drops into the abyss for the struggling kiwi, as long as risks are weighted to the downside with coronavirus and improving US data, expect further falls.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6332
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6324- 0.6447
After five weeks of declines against the US Dollar (USD) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned to form recovering recent losses from the 0.6375 low to close the week at 0.6440. Governor Adrian Ore delivered an upbeat statement after leaving the cash rate at 1.0% taking the dovish bias to more of a neutral tone in policy bringing back investors to NZD. The kiwi is not out of the woods just yet with no data scheduled this week in NZ the kiwi could be pushed around by offshore forces and US data. Fed minutes from the late January policy meeting Thursday followed by Manufacturing data could move the cross. Ore suggested recently he thought the coronavirus would last only six weeks, if WHO report the virus is being contained we should see the kiwi edge higher, otherwise a general risk off tone will continue with kiwi downward bias.
Current level: 0.6435
Last Weeks Range: 0.6378-0.6487
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted down to 0.6377 in early week trading against the US Dollar (USD) – a yearly low, before recovering to 0.6480 post RBNZ announcement. Governor Adrian Ore delivered an upbeat statement after leaving the cash rate at 1.0% taking the dovish bias to more of a neutral tone in policy. Employment is at maximum sustainable levels and inflation is near the 2.0% target. Markets were expecting comments of cuts potentially as soon as April given recent economic effects from the coronavirus, but he confirmed no further cuts in 2020 would happen. The kiwi bounced off its lows on the news. US CPI for January rose 0.1% from 0.2% in December within the estimated range and coronavirus fears were back with the number of affected people on the rise contributing to a shift in price back to 0.6430. The bearish decline in the kiwi looks to continue from the beginning of 2020- we think the low of 0.6375 could again be tested.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6435
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6377- 0.6486
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is currently trading at the yearly low of 0.6378 confirming seven weeks of straight declines against the US Dollar in 2020. Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll figures came in at 225,000 for January showing further improvements in US jobs numbers with spiking construction employment. However the Unemployment Rate rose a tad to 3.6% from 3.5%. The kiwi has drifted below key support Tuesday to 0.6380 back at early November 2019 levels. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting holds this week’s attention with the expectation that the RBNZ will hold unchanged at 1.0% until April. If Ore delivers a dovish statement we could see the NZD retest long term support at 0.6200
Current Level: 0.6378
Last Weeks Range: 0.6381-0.6502
US ISM Manufacturing data came in better than expected at 50.9 in January keeping the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on the back foot, as it sits at the 2 December low of 0.6460. The poor kiwi has underperformed every week in 2020. Support is 0.6440 just below where we currently trade which is under threat if coronavirus keeps markets “risk off”. NZ employment data Wednesday needs to print well to boost the NZD – the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Later in the week US Non-Farm payroll should give us the normal currency volatility with the result predicted to print well. NZD downside bias looks to be the most probable outcome this week extending losses for the 6th week straight.
Current Level: 0.6453
Last Weeks Range: 0.6452-0.6553
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has retreated off the yearly open of around 0.6730 for the fifth straight week declining to 0.6480 Friday against the US Dollar (USD). Fed’s Powell retained the cash rate at 1.75% saying he expects the economy to expand at a good pace through 2020 – the rate should remain on hold unless inflation slipped well below the target of 2.0%. He also said he would tolerate a period of above target inflation as long as the expectations remain well anchored and didn’t drift below estimate. Coronavirus headlines are still dominating currency direction with more and more cases being reported every day and the WHO formally declaring a global emergency with a clear message of concern. A solid base of support exists around 0.6430 and we would be surprised if the kiwi broke through here. Next week’s NZ employment figures and US Non-Farm Payroll are the focus but direction could be overshadowed by further nasty virus media coverage.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6716
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6479- 0.6598
Virus worries have intensified in the fight to contain the coronavirus with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reeling as markets by the safe haven US Dollar (USD). The kiwi has declined now 5 weeks straight from the late December high of 0.6755. Fourth quarter inflation figures printed at a rise of 0.5%, up on the 0.4% expected sighting increased costs in rental prices and airfares. This reinforces the RBNZ won’t cut rates at the next meeting on 12 Feb given inflation targets fall within the targeted 1-3% over the next 12 months. This week’s Federal Reserve rate announcement and monetary policy statement is the main event with no change expected from the 1.75% and little change from the December view. The kiwi looks heavy as markets digest potential economic flow on effects of the coronavirus, solid support is at 0.6450 which could be tested this week.
Current Level: 0.6612
Last Weeks Range: 0.6537-0.6629
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted lower to 0.6580 against the US Dollar early Friday on the lack of positive risk sentiment after fears the coronavirus had spread and was struggling to be contained by the world health authority. With the lack of US data on the calendar this week focus has been squarely on this morning’s NZ CPI release, which didn’t disappoint. Fourth quarter figures showed a rise to 0.5% up on the 0.4% expected sighting increased costs in rental prices and airfares. This reinforces the RBNZ won’t cut rates at the next meeting on 12 Feb given inflation targets fall within the targeted 1-3% over the next 12 months. The kiwi is still in a bearish trend and needs to break above 0.6650 to confirm a possible new bull run.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6616
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6580- 0.6622
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell against late Friday into the weekly close from 0.6665 on positive US data to 0.6590 into early Tuesday. Price recovered back to 0.6610 midday rejecting further downside bias. The world Economic Monetary Fund overnight described the 2020 economic outlook as in a synchronised slowdown with uncertainty over further risks which could affect growth. Their projections for 2020 suggest an increase from the 2019 growth increase of 2.9% to 3.3% to 3.4% for 2021. This week sees no significant economic releases in the US with just NZD CPI q/q on Friday. A daily close below 0.6600 looks unlikely but CPI could surprise.
Current Level: 0.6604
Last Weeks Range: 0.6584-0.6664
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came off its early week low of 0.6580 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets enjoyed renewed optimism sparked by the US and China officially signing the much anticipated phase one trade deal. The NZD was back above 0.6660 late Thursday but dropped back to 0.6630 midday Friday. US Retail Sales came in above expectations of 0.5% at 0.7% for the month of December while manufacturing figures for January were also improved. Despite the recent late 2019 drop in the cross from the high of 0.6750 we are still in a bullish trend extending from the low in September of 0.6220. Expect the kiwi to push higher over the coming weeks. Next week’s quarterly CPI holds focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6632
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6582- 0.6664
2019 price points… open 0.6890, close 0.6730, high 0.6941, low 0.6205.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) early in the week spiked to 0.6650 before falling back against the US Dollar to 0.6620 Tuesday. NZIER Business Confidence this morning was fairly benign with last quarter reports indicating those that were surveyed seems to be more positive heading into 2020. We have quite a range of US related data to print this week including the December quarter CPI, Retail Sales and Manufacturing data. The main driver though seems to be the imminent signing of a phase one trade deal between China and the US and outcomes pending in the Middle East. Downside bias seems to be the trend in the kiwi since the decline from late December, price may retest 0.6600 if US data is solid.
Current Level: 0.6625
Last Weeks Range: 0.6600-0.6672
Stats from last year’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), United States Dollar (USD) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.6890, close 0.6730, high 0.6941, low 0.6205. Trading from early October levels around 0.6200 the kiwi outperformed into the yearly close reaching 0.6750 but ran out of juice to push past July levels around 0.6800 – dropping back this week to 0.6620 on a fresh bout of risk aversion. Geopolitical influences have marred any momentum the kiwi had developed with concerns in the Middle East affecting markets. Missiles were fired yesterday into Iraq from Iran targeting US bases after the Iranian military general Qassem Suleimani assassination by the US. Crude Oil has come off over 5% in the last day or so together with continuation of any risk on mood. US Non-Farm Payroll is late Friday with the Unemployment Rate expected to print a solid 3.5%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6652
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6616- 0.6679
After a stellar performance over the last couple of weeks, the NZD ran out of breath overnight as the potential of a hard Brexit re-emerged, This saw an increase in risk aversion, supporting the USD and knocking commodity currencies NZD & AUD lower. Also not helping the NZD was a 5% price at the Global Dairy auction (much bigger than the 0.5% expected. After a high last Friday around the 0.6635 level the NZD/USD has not been able to hold above the 0.6600 inflection point and is now trading at 0.6575. Q3 GDP data tomorrow should provide better direction, with downside support at 0.6525 then 0.6495 ahead of 0.6415.- upside on a break of 0.6585 a track back to 0.6635
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6562
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6560- 0.6612
After pulling back to the 0.6522 level 2 days ago the NZD ground higher to 0.6603 as a more “risk-on” sentiment took hold of the market with news around SIno/US trade deal turning more positive…The NZD has not managed to hold above the 0.6600 level, currently trading around 0.6595, further concrete news on a trade deal should see the NZD consolidate its gains and push to resistance around the 0.6620 mark.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6606
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6521- 0.6635
The NZD has held onto previous gains made last week on the back of the RBNZ capital adequacy review and is now trading around 0.6550 after a mixed session overnight.
The much better than forecast US jobs figures last Friday had little impact on the NZD which continues to consolidate gains above the 0.6500 level, If the current risk-on tone remains look for the NZD to track higher against the USD with potential to push above the 0.6600 level, but we remain wary of any breakdown in the SIno/US trade talks which if profound would see selling pressure back on the trade and risk currencies – including the kiwi. Range of 0.6500- 0.6590 should hold over the next few days, a break over 0.6595 would see a push to the 0.6620 level.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6423-0.6575
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its rally higher this week against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6545 progressing its rise from the early November daily low of 0.6320. The RBNZ released its Capital Review aimed at capital adequacy for local banks. The RBNZ plans to nearly double the capital requirements held by large and small banks equating to nearly 24 Billion NZ Dollars. Orr said this was a long term objective to reduce the likelihood of bank failure. The NZD squeezed higher post release as markets saw this as a long term positive. US Non-Farm Payroll releases tomorrow morning and may hold upside risks to the pair based on ADP missing its mark earlier in the week. The kiwi holds a four month high at 0.6545 Friday and could track higher towards Christmas if risk prevails.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6543
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6421- 0.6562
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surged to 0.6510 into Tuesday immediately pushing higher against the US Dollar (USD) on the weekly open. Risk factors played a part, Trump was back on the wires asking the Fed to drop the US Cash Rate from its current 1.75% to devalue the US Dollar, together with a buoyant print in Chinese Manufacturing. Prime Minister Ardern announced a 400M property investment boost for NZ schools in the form of a one off cash injection worth $693.00 per student across the country marking the largest investment to school property in 25 years. Clearly ramping up incentives pre 2020 election. The kiwi has held gains around 0.6500 helped by poor US ISM Manufacturing overnight. US Non-Farm Payroll releases at the end of the week along with job’s numbers, if we see figures close to the expected 189,000 this should push the kiwi significantly through 0.6500 and clear of the recent ranges.
Current Level: 0.6501
Last Weeks Range: 0.6403-0.6510
Choppy market conditions have seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), USD Dollar (USD) pair remain relatively unmoved around 0.6400 levels for most of the week. A myriad of data releases, especially in the US have failed to drive the cross to new levels. Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.6% from the expected -0.5% based on a surge in US defence spending. Chicago PMI index, a good barometer for manufacturing output, came in a little light at 46.3 based on estimates of 47.2 loosened the grip on early week USD momentum. Risk wavered over the week turning slightly negative after Trump officially joined the support of HK protesters. It’s a full week on the calendar next week in the US ending with crucial Non-Farm Payrolls. The cross looks to be holding 0.6400 just – but has had trouble breaking past resistance at 0.6440 this week, next week we should see far more volatility develop.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6765
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6394- 0.6433
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to bounce around the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday. The past week of trading has been choppy as the cross looks for directional drivers. This morning’s Retail Sales was a lot stronger for the third quarter supporting the view that the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than slipping south. The news bounced price off the weekly low of 0.6395 back to 0.6410 levels. In recent weeks the kiwi has struggled to get above 0.6430 marking a heavy resistance point, with this week’s fully booked data calendar it will be interesting to gauge momentum. US Consumer Confidence and ANZ Business Confidence will be key along with the Chicago Manufacturing print. We favour a pull back below 0.6400 levels and suggest buyers of USD take a look at current levels around 0.6400
Current Level: 0.6411
Last Weeks Range: 0.6381-0.6437
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has held last week’s gains against the US Dollar (USD) into Friday – just, but overnight Thursday lost value to trade around 0.6400. It’s been a slow week of meaningful data which explains the lack of direction in the cross. US Building Permits were better than predicted and likewise US Manufacturing numbers but with the biggest news coming from the Fed when they excluded “will act as appropriate” from rhetoric suggesting cuts may be over. Next week we have a little more influential data to push prices around such as US Consumer Confidence and locally ANZ Business Confidence but the main driver could well be further US/China trade talk. The bullish NZD trend from early October remains intact for now, a solid break above 0.6450 could spell further upside.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6402
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6381- 0.6436
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held onto last week’s gains leading into the close of the week against the US Dollar (USD) trading around the 0.6400 mark. Movement into Tuesday has been a little shifty with price choosing to stay around 0.6400 as it waits for directional cues. It’s a quiet week on the economic docket with just US building permits tomorrow and Flash Manufacturing Friday to look forward to. Also on the radar is Thursday’s FOMC – Fed minutes from the 1st November policy meeting when they left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75%. China/US trade headlines dominate the market risk profile again, a retest of last week’s low of 0.6330 is the most likely outcome.
Current Level: 0.6395
Last Weeks Range: 0.6325-0.6420
Early in the week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held its ground around 0.6330 against the US Dollar (USD) before the RBNZ cash rate announcement surged the kiwis to a fresh weekly high of 0.6418. Governor Adrian Orr left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0% surprising markets after a cut was generally expected. He didn’t see the need for cutting further just yet based on aggressively cutting 50 points in August and inflation expectations reasonably in line with recent forecasts. With markets generally short NZD heading into the announcement with a 25 point cut holding more consensus, investors were left exposed with the cross bounding over 70 points in a short space of time. Risk mood deteriorated into Friday with the kiwi retracing some of the gains made travelling back to 0.6370. Also of note and benefiting the big dollar was US Producer Price Index increasing 0.4% for October. We expect the kiwi to squeeze a little higher heading into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6376
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6325- 0.6417
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rebounded hard off the recent decline from 0.6460 and weekly close at 0.6320 Monday against the US Dollar pushing higher back to 0.6370 as news over the last few hours has surfaced that the RBNZ may not cut rates tomorrow. Also, and probably more importantly the BNZ came out saying the kiwi is trading at the cheapest it’s been in a decade with fair value estimates now at 0.6900. Market short positioning in the kiwi over the last few days by investors have also squared these positions pushing the kiwi higher. Expect the normal volatility around the RBNZ. We expect the kiwi to decline to 0.6240 early October levels.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6322-0.6431
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) doesn’t know if it’s Arthur or Martha this week as conflicting headlines send the currency into a spin. Against the stronger, more supported US Dollar (USD) price has dropped off the open of 0.6435 to 0.6370 into Friday after a mixed bag of results. A worrying kiwi jobs report and concerns of a delay in the US China trade negotiations have both weighed on the NZD. Unemployment sharply rose from 3.9% to 4.2%. Apparently the US have agreed to wind back current tariffs on a bunch of Chinese exported products bought renewed buying interest back in the kiwi taking if the weekly low of 0.6340 to 0.6380 during overnight trading. Next week’s RBNZ holds market attention with a cut to 0.75% predicted along with US Retail Sales and m/m CPI. We expect a retest of the three week low at 0.6330 to come into play in the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6367
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6340- 0.6465
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefited early Monday from a more stable outlook boosting risk assets and the kiwi to a 14 August high of 0.6465 against the US Dollar. Price up at these heights wasn’t to last with renewed greenback strength price fall back sharply to 0.6400 during the London trading session. With phase one of the trade deal between the US and China all but done this could offset any further downside bias for the kiwi over the coming days. Non-Farm Payroll still continues to surprise markets with another 128,000 new jobs added to the US workforce in October which is adding to US equity markets clocking record levels and seemingly on autopilot higher. Long term the kiwi is still working its way higher from the major daily low at 0.6240 and could retest 0.6500 if tomorrow’s NZ employment numbers publish well.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6334-0.6465
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came off an early week low of 0.6335 against the US Dollar (USD) to grind higher to a Friday high of 0.6430. The pair traded flat all week leading up to Thursday’s Fed Rate announcement which cut by 25 basis points to 1.75%. The Fed statement was slightly more hawkish than we were expecting with comments intensely anticipated as usual, Powell’s comments helped the kiwi drive higher. The Fed indicated they were ready to pause easing after cutting three times this year, Powell declared more than once that he thought monetary policy was “in a good place”. ANZ Business Confidence released slightly better but businesses still thought pessimistic of business opportunities in the next 12 months. Tomorrow morning’s (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll number, the biggest monthly data influence to financial markets should come in on target, if we go off earlier ADP results it could boost kiwi through last week’s resistance of 0.6435.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6405
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6332- 0.6431
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended last week’s decline from the high of 0.6435 trading down to 0.6333 against the US Dollar (USD) in thin Monday conditions. Tuesday’s risk sentiment improved with prices returning to 0.6355. Markets are gearing up for a chunky set of economic releases this week with the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll the main focus. Chances are sitting at 92% that the cash rate will be cut to 1.75% from 2.0% hailed as possibly the third and final cut for 2019 with rhetoric by Powell suggesting comments could be rather hawkish based around GDP projections. 2020 and 2021 forecasts are only slightly lower with third quarter growth of 2.1-2.3%. The kiwi could be well supported this week, we expect a retest of 0.6400 over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6359
Last Weeks Range: 0.6334-0.6435
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains into Tuesday reaching 0.6435 against the US Dollar before running out of fuel and easing back to 0.6370 levels. With no data out this week, and fresh concerns regarding the global economy after Japanese PMI figures came out softer than expected, we have seen the kiwi drift off the recent high. Nervous selling ahead of the speech by Vice President Pence also weighed on sentiment. US Durable goods fell 1.1% in September, the first time in three months reflecting alarming weakness in manufacturing which will bother US economy analysts ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. At the moment we are not expecting a shift from the 2.0% cash rate. Also of note on next week’s economic docket is the all important Non-Farm Payroll release and US Unemployment rate. Weighty support in the cross is seen at 0.6340, price should hold above here for a while.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6377
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6327- 0.6435
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains from the 0.6370 close into Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6415 a fresh six-week high. Risk sentiment alone has boosted the kiwi as comments from Chinese Liu made headlines when he suggested that China and the US have made “concrete progress” towards ending the trade war between the two countries which is now into its second year. Trump said phase one of the agreement should be signed off by the Asia-Pacific Economic meeting in Chile on the 16th of November. Until then all new implementation of additional tariffs have been suspended as a mark of goodwill while negotiations take place. A slow week for economic data should find markets fixed on geopolitical headlines and Brexit. Buyers of the greenback should consider current levels around 0.6400
Current Level: 0.6412
Last Weeks Range: 0.6241-0.6415
It’s been a game of two halves for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross this week having travelled down to 0.6240 midweek and back to the weekly open Friday consolidating around 0.6350 levels. Positive earnings result this week out in the US with companies showing rises to earnings forecasts have boosted sentiment over the last couple of days with US equities booking profit and risk related currencies boosted. NZ CPI for the third quarter was up 0.7% from the predicted 0.6%. Annual inflation is at 1.5% from a year earlier but higher than the anticipated RBNZ forecast of 1.3%. US Retail Sales printed poor for September at -0.3% from 0.3% expected with investors exiting the US Dollar as a result. Next week will be a slow week for economic releases, expect price to take shape favouring risk flows with the kiwi targeting 0.6430 if sentiment allows.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6360
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6240- 0.6362
Movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair has been dictated by risk sentiment due to recent trade talks Washington. A partial deal has been verbally agreed between China and the US saw risk improve late last week but sadly based on a lack of substantial detail we were back in risk averse conditions Tuesday. Friday’s high of 0.6350 was short lived with the kiwi extending late Friday’s declines into today travelling to 0.6282 before a little improvement higher around late morning. Looking ahead we have just NZ quarterly CPI on the local calendar with US Building Approvals and Retails holding focus. Unless we see further risk headlines the cross should hold above 0.6280 this week.
Current Level: 0.6298
Last Weeks Range: 0.6270-0.6253
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied overnight buoyed by risk sentiment turning more positive on better news from the US/China trade talks. Price action has been choppy in the NZD/USD cross over the last 24 hours with both the high (0.6335) and low (0.6277) of the week being made, however it is now back around the 0.6317 level and looks set to track higher as softer USD inflation data saw the USD weaken…Look for a test of the 0.6350 level over the next couple of days , however any rally significantly above this level is likely to be limited by continued RBNZ interest rate dovishness.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6317
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6276- 0.6335
Choppy conditions in currency markets continue with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) no different. Price dropped early in the week to around 0.6200 levels, deep into the September 2015 level, based on poor business confidence releases. ANZ Business confidence published down at -53.5 the lowest confidence number we have seen in over a decade, also NZIER Business Confidence was also poor with a net 35% of businesses surveyed expect a worsening NZ economic outlook. US Manufacturing figures printed down on expectations sending equities lower as the slowdown in manufacturing intensifies. The kiwi rallied into Friday back on manufacturing data headlines to the weekly open to 0.6300. Looking ahead we have US Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow morning which should give us a normal bout of volatility around the release, expect numbers in be in line with forecast of 145,000 with employment remaining at 3.7%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6308
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6203- 0.6315
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell sharply on the weekly open against the US Dollar (USD) to meet with the long term support level of 0.6245. ANZ Business confidence printed poor at -53.5 showing most businesses were pessimistic of business opportunities and growth over the coming months. The reading was the lowest level since the financial crisis in April 2008. Most saying they would not be in a position to hire additional staff. The report sent the kiwi lower into Tuesday as it hovers around breaking lower to the September 2015 low. Just about every Fed member is speaking this week on various key Fed issues but the main highlight on the calendar for the greenback is the Non-Farm Payroll release and unemployment figures Friday. We expect a touch of volatility as normal around this release with general expectations the US Dollar will gain strength over the week boosting equity prices and possibly sending the fragile NZD lower.
Current Level: 0.6258
Last Weeks range: 0.6249-0.6348
This week’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair has been volatile with price action chopping around the 0.6300 level. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. The result was priced into expectations after the RBNZ surprised markets at their August 7 outing by cutting 50 points. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. The good news this week for buyers of USD is the kiwi rebounded higher off last week’s low of 0.6250. Reaching a high of 0.6350 pre RBNZ announcement the kiwi was quickly sold off as RBNZ’s Orr spoke of further cuts to come. Most Fed members have spoken this week at various events with the general economic theme summarised by Barkin saying they expect a “roller coaster” of upcoming threats to the economy to linger. 0.6250 the long term support level may not hold for much longer – next week’s US Non-Farm Payroll figures Friday are the focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6291
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6257- 0.6348
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a September 2015 low last week of 0.6255 against the US Dollar (USD). Monday’s return of improved sentiment took the NZD higher to 0.6300 with equity markets rising as well after concerns around US Farm visits were cancelled by Chinese officials proved to be unfounded with the rescheduling of visits next week. Also buoying markets was confirmation top Chinese negotiator Liu is scheduled to visit Washington next week to carry on tariff talks with US secretary Mnuchin. Locally the main event on the docket is the RBNZ cash rate announcement tomorrow with no change expected from the current 1.0%. With other central banks under pressure to make more cuts Orr’s comments in his monetary statement could give us firmer NZD direction for the remainder of the year. If the kiwi drops a further 1.5 cents through long term support of 0.6120 it’s pure darkness.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6255-0.6362
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted lower all week against the US Dollar (USD) back to early September levels of 0.6280. Affairs in Saudi Arabia affecting Crude Oil prices and risk flow affected the kiwi into Thursday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting when the Fed lowered rates by 0.25%. A hawkish statement followed from Powell with him saying he would ease further if appropriate, if market conditions changed. Fed members were divided on where policy should be going forward. NZ quarterly GDP surprised with 0.5% slightly better than the 0.4% expected but down on the March quarter. Risk sentiment and a fundamentally stronger USD has been the key this week with further losses to the kiwi. Next week’s RBNZ should be informative and should offer further clues to policy, we are not expecting a cut just yet from the 1.0%. A weekly close lower than 0.6280 could see the kiwi look deep into the abyss.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6287
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6285- 0.6391
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to slide to fresh lows against the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.6335 Tuesday amid risk aversion. Market sentiment took a turn for the worse over the weekend on the news of drone attacks on a Saudi Arabian oil field, before the kiwi suffered another hit from softer Chinese data out Monday with Chinese industrial production. The Federal Reserve cash rate and statement is announced Thursday morning with expectations that the rate will be cut to 2.0% from 2.25%. The main focus lies with comments around future outlook with a potential two further cuts taking place before year end. We sense this cross wants to trade back to 0.6300 with risk factors affecting overall mood. We may get a bounce higher on the fed announcement but this could be short lived as a 25 point fed cut fully prices in.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6338-0.6450
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded higher against the US Dollar (USD) off the back of buoyant risk mood into Thursday to 0.6445 extending last week’s run but was met with resistance and dropped back towards 0.6400 levels midday Friday. China dropped tariffs on 16 US products in an unprecedented act to win over the US President, Trump retaliated with an act of goodwill announcing he would defer tariffs on 250B of Chinese products until October 15th. US Core CPI published at 0.3% from the 0.2% markets were predicting sending the US Dollar higher across the board along with equity markets. US Retail Sales prints later tonight and is expected to come in lower at 0.2% from July’s 0.7%. Next week’s Fed cash rate and monetary policy statement will be the main focus in a busy few days of economic data. Buyers of USD shouldn’t get to greedy and should take advantage of the recent spike from the low of 0.6265 set on 3rd Sept.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6396- 0.6449
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds around the 0.6430 area against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday after turning positive from last week’s low of 0.6268. A healthy risk appetite continues with US equities extending their run off the back of China agreeing to sit back at the table with US officials to nut out trade negotiations. Friday’s Non-farm payroll took the US lower on a worse than predicted result with only an improvement of 130k to the workforce after 163k was forecast. US unemployment remains at 3.7% with a slight rise in earnings of 0.4% from 0.3%. US Data and risk factors will affect price movement over the remaining week with US monthly CPI and US Retail Sales to come. Technically the 100 day moving average has stayed below recent price movement suggesting more upside to possibly eventuate.
Current Level: 0.6431
Last Weeks Range:0.6269-0.6443
The New Zealand Dollar has reacted this week on positive market sentiment out performing the US Dollar (USD) into Thursday reaching a fresh high of 0.6395. US ADP job figures printed at 195,000 compared to 148,000 bringing buyers back into the greenback shifting price lower to 0.6365 during the overnight trading sessions. Not always but the ADP is usually an indication of what we can expect when non-farm payroll releases (NFP) tomorrow morning. Expectations are that 163,000 US people were added to the workforce in August, if the number prints higher we may see the kiwi trade lower targeting 0.6300. Technically price has stayed below the 100 day moving average line on the chart since late July. It’s intersecting this today and suggests the continuation of the long term bearish NZD decline.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6373
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6287- 0.6395
A slow start to the week with a US holiday Monday made for thin conditions across markets with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair stable around the 0.6300 area. This week’s ADP and Non-Farm Payroll release is firmly in focus with predictions US jobs data should be positive. If data supports the greenback we could see the kiwi push lower continuing its bearish run to prior long term support at 0.6280. No economic data for the NZD this week could also indicate price may drift lower as the week progresses.
Last Weeks Range:0.6283-0.6398
The mighty New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is still under a cloud of despair this week and has again underperformed against the US Dollar (USD) trading down to 0.6315 and counting. Data this week has not been exactly NZD supportive after ANZ Business Confidence came in lower than expected at -52.3 versus -44.3 immediately sending the kiwi to fresh lows. An ugly risk averse bias looms large over risk affected currencies after earlier this week trade talks turned nasty escalating to a new level of uneasiness. Markets have relaxed some over the last couple of days and with less anxiety out there the kiwi did bounce higher for a short time. The next support line is at 0.6230 the low from September 2015, we are not far off this. US Personal Spending prints tomorrow and could send the kiwi lower if the numbers print well. Next week’s Non-Farm Payroll will hold market focus, the highlight on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6292
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6402- 0.6292
With the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the weakest currency over the past week, it’s no surprise to see the NZD drift lower to 0.6340 against the US Dollar (USD). Five straight weeks of declines for the kiwi from the 21 July high of 0.6785 shows the impact of how risk associated currencies can suffer, in this case from the trade war between China and the US. After recently delaying further tariffs Trump has increased them after China confirmed they were adding a 5% tariff to 75B worth of US made products, escalating tensions to another level. Since then we have seen Trump suggest China has made contact with him suggesting they would like to restart talks. This saw tensions dialled down somewhat into Tuesday and price making a comeback to 0.6390. Prelim US quarterly GDP Friday holds market attention this week on the data front with forecast figures for July expected to come in around 2.0% much lower than June’s 3.1%
Current Level: 0.6383
Last Weeks Range: 0.6342-0.6428
It’s been a tough week for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) which has largely underperformed most of its peers. The kiwi slipped below the psychological 0.6400 level against the United States dollar (USD) yesterday and this only encouraged further selling. The pair has traded to a low overnight of 0.6362. At this stage there is little to indicate that the downtrend which has been in play since late July is running out of momentum. As such, the risks remain skewed toward further losses. We do however have to be mindful of President Trump’s Twitter account, and any hints that his administration could be reassessing the “strong dollar” policy would cause a sharp turnaround. This weekend’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium also poses a significant risk event. Fed governors have used past symposiums to signal major changes in central bank policy. At this stage it seems unlikely Fed Chair Powell is going to cave to pressure from Trump and ease policy anywhere near as much as the president would like, but the US Fed is starting to stand out in a world where other central banks are taking a much more dovish stance.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6370
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6361 – 0.6445
With recent US data printing above expectations along with risk sentiment impacting currency movement generally, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) US Dollar (USD) cross remains intent on moves to the downside. Trading just below the weekly open around 0.6410 a retest of 0.6395 is close and could be breached if the big dollar regains some momentum. Thursday’s Fed meeting minutes is firmly in focus with Powell also speaking at the Jackson Hole event in Wyoming later in the week when central bankers get together to discuss policy. It’s a tough call to make to suggest current prices represent good buying of USD, but with the current pessimism in markets around global outlook it’s hard to see much upside in the kiwi for a good while. NZ Retail Sales also could surprise Friday and cause some bounciness.
Current Level: 0.6407
Last Weeks Range: 0.6403-0.6471
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair has been flat all week ranging about 50 points from the weekly open. Trading at the moment at 0.6435 this is close to its recent lows and looks to have further downside momentum from poor risk sentiment which has broadly supported the greenback. The escalation of the US/China trade war looks to drag on for a while, confirming the recent poor performances by equity markets and US Treasury yields. US Data published this week has been good – monthly CPI, Retail Sales and Manufacturing were all above expectations with Building Approvals to come tomorrow. Next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium in Kansas will be in focus Friday after NZ Retail Sales.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6428
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6420- 0.6474
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its downward bias late Friday into the weekly close against the US Dollar to 0.6460. This week has seen no change in the bearish trend with price moving to 0.6440 Tuesday as the cross looks to retest last week’s post RBNZ low of 0.6375. The risk off tone from the escalation of the US/China trade war looks to drag on for a while, confirming the recent risk averse mood was overnight US equities dropping over 1.5% overnight. US monthly inflation figures will be the focus this week with a rise to the June number of 0.1% with 0.3% forecast. Retail Sales prints later in the week with Building Permits Friday. If investors hold safe haven assets over the week the NZD will track lower towards the multi year low of 0.6420
Current Level: 0.6447
Last Weeks Range: 0.6377-0.6585
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off 0.6485 long term support overnight against the US Dollar (USD) recovering slightly to 0.6530. Whether this level holds this week will depend largely on the risk mood of markets. President Trump has bought in an additional 10% tariff to 300B worth of Chinese products starting 1 September and followed up be accusing the Chinese of currency (Yuan) manipulation. Which is true as it’s the only way to offset tariff costs to the economy. The USDCNY is now trading over 7 and expected to trade higher- its not unforeseeable we could see the currency fully offset the 10% imposed by Trump which would imply a level somewhere around 7.4. We have seen massive declines in equities overnight with the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P all falling over 3%. Today’s NZ employment figures surprised to the upside with the NZ Unemployment rate falling to 3.9% after 4.2% was expected, with the unemployment rate now the lowest since March 2008. The fall in the unemployment rate also reflected a fall of 9,000 in the number of unemployed bringing the total unemployment number down to 109,000 in NZ. This all ponders the question if the RBNZ will favour a more neutral tone tomorrow in their monetary policy statement if the economy isn’t all custard like most believe. Focus now is with tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate decision with Orr expected to cut the cash rate from 1.5% to 1.25%.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6489-0.6634
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended another leg lower Thursday after the Federal Reserve was less dovish than predicted, the kiwi trading to 0.6535 before stabilizing. The Fed cut rates from 2.5% to 2.25%, Powell saying he wasn’t going to cut again in the near term if it wasn’t necessary. To make matters worse for the kiwi risk sentiment deteriorated with US equities dropping over 1% as President Trump overnight introduced fresh tariffs on Chinese products. The US government will impose an additional 10% on $300B starting September 1 surprising markets after recent talks this week in Shanghai clearly hadn’t gone well. ISM manufacturing gave the kiwi some relief when figures published showing less expansion for July missing the mark at 51.2 based on predictions of 52.0. Overall though anything over 50.00 is seen as positive long term for the US economy. Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow morning is now the focus with an additional 164,000 jobs expected to be added to the US workforce. This will inevitably put further pressures on the NZD but 0.6500 support should hold for now.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6549
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6534- 0.6618
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hovers around the 0.6630 area Tuesday just off from the weekly low against the US Dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve will announce their cash rate Thursday, markets are very much poised in freeze frame until then with the Fed cash rate expected to drop from 2.5% to 2.25%. The statement may reflect recent positive data flow of late with a small chance they may signal no further easing in 2019. President Trump maintains his stance that the Fed have raised rates to early and too high to 2.5%. Recent US Dollar strength doesn’t suggest such a view with momentum supporting the big dollar and the US Index up just over 98.00 at multi year highs. Tomorrow’s ANZ Business Confidence is not expected to come in to positive. Later in the week we will see further volatility with US Non-Farm Payroll releasing. Technically higher highs and higher lows on the charts still follow a bullish theme although a break lower through 0.6600 could spell lower prices.
Current Level: 0.6631
Last Weeks Range: 0.6616-0.6766
The recent fortnight rally in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a high of 0.6786 Monday before reversing lower on US Dollar (USD) strength. US Core Durable Goods Orders printed well above the expected 0.2% at 1.2% rebounding higher off the past two months of poor releases. Business spending and investment is still struggling and much softer than a year ago with companies trying to trade through an uncertain global economy. Dropping to around 0.6700 levels Wednesday the cross seemed to consolidate somewhat before slipping another leg lower overnight to 0.6660 as risk markets took losses with equities off. NZ Trade Balance Wednesday gave the kiwi course for buyer interest after figures showed a surplus to June 2019 of 365M based on predictions of 100M, but the kiwi never really got going. Next week’s FOMC meeting holds key interest with President Trump making his opinion known recently that Fed rates are to high increasing pressures on the Federal Reserve to cut rates from the 2.5% currently to at least 2.25%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6654
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6653- 0.6787
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains well supported against the United States dollar (USD), currently trading just above 0.6740. While we do have US data in the form of Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP to digest this week, the focus is firmly on next week’s Fed interest rate meeting. The Fed have had a disastrous few days in terms of communication. On Friday morning NY Fed President made extremely dovish comments arguing for pre-emptive measures to avoid having to deal with too-low inflation and interest rate. The USD sank as the market digested the comments with the NZDUSD surging to the week’s high of 0.6790. A few hours later however, Fed representatives had to walk the comments back, clarifying they were “academic” and not related to immediate policy changes. The USD then recovered some of its losses. We are now in the media blackout period ahead of the Fed meeting but that hasn’t stopped President Trump continuing to make his feelings known. He’s heaping pressure on the Fed to cut, and to cut significantly. A 25 point cut is almost a certainty, while some are speculating they could go bigger. In the meantime, the NZDUSD should remain elevated. Support around 0.6720 should contain any periods of near term weakness, while tests toward 0.6800 continue to run into decent selling.
Current Level: 0.6745
Last Weeks Range: 0.6696 – 0.6790
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has put in a solid week of gains against the United States dollar (USD) driven in large part by dovish rhetoric from Fed speakers. The comments have been so dovish the only question around the upcoming Fed meeting is whether they will cut 25 or 50 basis points. In this environment it’s not surprising the big dollar is struggling. Add into the mix data from NZ this week that saw inflation rebound to 0.6% for the second quarter, from the prior 0.1%, and positive dairy auction results, and we now have the NZDUSD trading at the highest levels since April. For now at least, the risks remain skewed toward further gains in the pair. Clients looking to convert NZD to USD may well be able to target levels 0.6800 over the coming week. The next major resistance level looks to be around 0.6935, although that may be a step too far in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6775
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6661 – 0.6789
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) made a sharp turnaround against the United States dollar in the wake of last week’s dovish testimony from Fed Chair Powell. That put the USD on the back foot and the NZD seized the opportunity to rally back to the best levels since April, trading to a high of 0.6734 overnight. The latest leg higher was also helped by the release of yesterday’s stronger than forecast Chinese activity data. There is some decent resistance for the pair around 0.6750 and that might prove tough to crack in the near term. Over the coming 3 weeks, both the US Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are expected to cut interest rates, so there is plenty of opportunity for volatility. Clients looking to convert NZD to USD should consider taking advantage of the current strength in the pair and look to lock a rate in.
Current Level: 0.6723
Last Weeks Range: 0.6568-0.6734
It’s really has been a week of two halves for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Early in the week the NZD was under pressure on the back of a stronger USD in the wake last Friday’s solid US employment report. The NZD broke below 0.6600 and even had a very quick flurry down to a low of 0.6569 on Wednesday. But momentum turned around on Wednesday night after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish testimony put the United States dollar under significant pressure. The NZDUSD gains continued yesterday reaching a high over night of 0.6688. Resistance on the topside comes on around 0.6725 will downside support is seen around 0.6560. With both countries central banks signalling upcoming monetary easings we may well see the NZDUSD continue to range between those two levels over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6665
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6569 – 0.6688
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) peaked at 0.6720 mid last week vs the United States dollar (USD), but since then we have seen a sharp turn around driven in large part by strong US employment data on Friday night. The gain of 224k Non-Farm Payrolls was well above expectations and it saw the USD make broad based gains. That drove the NZDUSD cross rate down to a low of 0.6603 before recovering slightly. For now the risks remain skewed to the downside and we could easily see the NZD back under 0.6600 this week. There is little of note set for release from NZ over the coming days, while from the US we have Fed Chair Powell speaking along with inflation data. Clients looking to convert USD to NZD should hold in for a move below 0.6600.
Current Level: 0.6623
Last Weeks Range: 0.6603-0.6720