AUD/USD Transfer

US Manufacturing figures overnight came in soft under 50 while Services PMI numbers improved making the first expansion in the industry in 5 months. This boosted the US Dollar (USD) off 0.6580 levels to 0.6550 this morning. Apart from this slump the Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a decent week after kicking around 0.6540. A soft landing of the US economy is being talked up by Jefferson, vice chair of the Fed; however, rate cuts will depend on upcoming economic progress and the pace of inflation. Next week’s Australian CPI y/y is our key release with forecast of a drop into the 2’s.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6556

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6520- 0.6594

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) momentum continued well into the week against the British Pound (GBP) the cross reaching a 6-week high of 0.4910 (2.0375). UK Flash Manufacturing came in at 47.1 vs 47.5 expected, falling in the 3 months to February, meanwhile dovish comment from the Bank of England’s Dhingra saying delaying rate cuts would come at substantial costs. NZ Retail Sales published at -1.9% for the December quarter well down from -0.2% predictions and September Q -0.8%. The NZD is weaker post the release falling to 0.4895 (2.0430).

 

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4891 GBPNZD 2.0445

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4860- 0.4907 GBPNZD 2.0379- 2.0576

NZD/USD Transfer

NZ Trade Balance blew out to -976m much higher than the -200m forecast. This was lower however than last year’s -2.1B and 2021’s -1.1B. Exports are down -7.1% from a year ago with imports falling 20%. The data didn’t affect the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) too much, the kiwi focusing on the recovery in the equity markets overnight. The cross reaching 0.6215 before easing back to 0.6200 levels into Friday. Next week’s RBNZ meet, we are on the fence as to if the central bank will hike.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6194

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6106- 0.6217

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its weekly long rally against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing into new heights at 0.9460 (1.0570) as I write. Stiff resistance at 0.9440 (1.0590) came and went, surprising most, breaking clear into a 2024 high. Does this all mean we could see a hike at next week’s RBNZ meeting? Is the market positioning for this event, evidence of the overwhelming support for the NZD?. Also on the docket next week is Australia CPI y/y with early predictions we could see a marked drop from the current 3.4%. It’s highly possible the kiwi has been overbought as it nears Dec 2022 highs, we look for a rebound.

 

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9442 AUDNZD 1.0581

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9376- 0.9461 AUDNZD 1.0569- 1.0665

 

 

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce around recent levels without much conviction. The cross sits at the edge of range resistance this morning at 0.6080 (1.6450) after coming from the bottom of the band at 0.6025 (1.6600) mid last week. The ECB continues to worry about high inflation while they cut growth forecasts for 2024. A rebound is expected to be more modest than thought but will pick up the pace as prices slow and a strong labour market. French and German manufacturing is this week with forecasts of a pick-up in the sector adding a boost to the EUR.

Current Level: 1.6501
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6380
Last Weeks Range: 1.6475- 1.6609

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce around recent levels without much conviction. The cross sits at the edge of range resistance this morning at 0.6080 (1.6450) after coming from the bottom of the band at 0.6025 (1.6600) mid last week. The ECB continues to worry about high inflation while they cut growth forecasts for 2024. A rebound is expected to be more modest than thought but will pick up the pace as prices slow and a strong labour market. French and German manufacturing is this week with forecasts of a pick-up in the sector adding a boost to the EUR.

Current Level: 0.6060
Resistance: 0.6105
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.6020- 0.6077

GBP/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.5120 (1.9520) late in the week to claw back gains to 0.5190 (1.9260) this morning against the British Pound (GBP). Momentum to the downside has been broken with price travelling through the 0.5180 (1.9300) channel resistance area on its way to posting a fortnight high. RBA minutes releases today from their first meeting of 2024, the central bank will no doubt reiterate their concerns of high inflation and their call to hike if needed. Wednesday’s wage price index should confirm upside risks to wage growth and further work required from the RBA. We expect the Aussie to do well over the week.

Current Level: 1.9290
Resistance: 1.9520
Support: 1.9200
Last Weeks Range: 1.9253- 1.9528

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost over the weekend after chat from Former RBA Kearns suggesting the cash rate was not high enough. With inflation still an issue it would be a long time before the RBA thought about cutting rates. Monday’s action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross was thin with Presidents Day long weekend. The AUD/USD is perched around 0.6530 with perhaps a tad downside bias in early Tuesday. Fed minutes Thursday before manufacturing data and existing home sales are the key prints to come. We struggle to see the Aussie pushing past 0.6550 and may retrace moves.

Current Level: 0.6524
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6570
Last week’s range: 0.6441- 0.6542

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 1.7559
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7500
Last Weeks Range: 1.7516- 1.7699

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.5695
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5715
Last week’s range: 0.5650- 0.5709