NZD to GBP – Pound Sterling to NZ Dollars
When converting New Zealand dollars to Great British Pounds (NZD to GBP), or GBP to NZD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD/GBP currency conversion rates.
NZD to GBP Overview: Because of close historical ties, the NZD to GBP exchange rate has always been closely watched. In recent times the NZD has outperformed the Pound Sterling to the surprise of many looking to convert GBP to NZD. Once the NZD/GBP broke through heavy resistance at .4000 (GBP/NZD support at 2.50), the way opened to a new range. With high migration between NZ and the UK and the money transfers that go with it, we have a strong focus and understanding of this exchange rate.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|NZD/GBP||.4884 – .5518||.3990 – .6342||.3318 – .6342|
|GBP/NZD||1.8123 -2.0473||1.5767 -2.5062||1.5767 – 3.0136|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 0.25% Bank of England (BoE): 0.10%
We have seen very little movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross over the week, unusual given two important pieces of economic data UK CPI and NZ GDP caused no volatility. Prices into Friday have been GBP supportive generally at 0.5130 1.9495 after starting the week around 0.5150 (1.9430). UK CPI came in at 3.2% printing better than the 2.9% we were expecting, blowing away the 2.0% for the 2 months ending August. The largest even m/m increase since 1997 and the Pound hardly blinked an eye. NZ GDP for the third quarter 2021 rose by 2.8% above forecast of 1.1% underpinned by government spending, record low interest rates and rising house prices. Forecasters are predicting a contraction in the third quarter based on Coronavirus setbacks with Auckland being largely closed down due to lockdown restrictions. Next week’s Bank of England policy announcement could give us the volatility we were hoping for this week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5124 GBPNZD 1.9516
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5123- 0.5157 GBPNZD 1.9390- 1.9519
We have not seen a bunch of movement over the past few days in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair concentrating around the 0.5140 (1.9450) zone. Economic fallout from the level 4 lockdown restrictions in Auckland through to next Tuesday could have an effect on the kiwi this week putting pressure on the kiwi as forecast GDP numbers for third-quarter worsen. We will get a look Thursday at second-quarter results with expectations of a rise higher than the March quarter result of 1.6%. UK Inflation is predicted to rise around 3.0% q/q ending June from the current 2.0% as the economy continues to recover from covid. This may have policymakers rethinking their strategy on hiking rates, possibly rising over the next 12 months, sooner if inflationary pressures continue. Predictions show inflation could rise to 4.0% by the end of 2021. We think the fortnight low at 0.5100 (1.9600) could be tested over the week.
Current Level: 0.5142 (1.9447)
Resistance: 0.5175 (1.9650)
Support: 0.5090 (1.9330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5125-0.5170 (1.9342-1.9511)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held onto most of last week’s gains against the British Pound (GBP) only easing back slightly into Friday sessions to 0.5140 (1.9460). Despite stronger demand for the greenback and weaker equity markets the kiwi is perhaps happier off the back of lower daily covid daily cases. Falling to just 13 new cases yesterday as Auckland looks set to ease restrictions from next Wednesday. The rest of the country eased lockdowns Wednesday prompting a surge in consumer spending. Bank of England’s Saunders came out saying – he was worried about continuing Asset Purchases when CPI is at 4%, this may cause inflation expectations to drift higher and cause more dramatic monetary policy correction responses later. We would need to see a retrace through the 0.5125 (1.9520) zone to signal a trend reversal, currently the kiwi is in charge and should be well supported through to next week’s second quarter GDP release.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5134 GBPNZD 1.9477
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5133- 0.5170 GBPNZD 1.9340- 1.9480
Broad-based greenback weakness has boosted the cross currencies of late, such as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), extending moves to 0.5170 (1.9350) against the British Pound Monday. A sharp drop in coronavirus cases in NZ down from a high of 84 cases a day to yesterday’s 20 have attributed to the positive tone of the NZD. This gives the RBNZ room to hike rates at next month’s policy meeting, after holding off on August 18th. Looser restrictions for all of NZ except Auckland come into play at midnight tomorrow. With markets pricing in a hike to 0.50% we should see this reflected in the cross with a retest of resistance at 0.5210 (1.9200) levels likely in the coming days.
Current Level: 0.5158 (1.9387)
Resistance: 0.5215 (1.9720)
Support: 0.5070 (1.9180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5109-0.5109 (1.9333-1.9574)
The New Zealand Dollar continued its march higher against the British Pound (GBP) Friday posting 0.5150 (1.9410) a late May 2021 high. The Pound was boosted Wednesday from strong housing data up 2.1% for the month marking the second largest monthly gain in 15 years, but this aside the kiwi was quick to gain the edge back as it headed for new territory. UK Manufacturing published at 60.3 on target but with constraints hampering supply chain issues again in August, this has dented output and slowed growth across the region. A thin calendar next week may indicate the pair is restricted to offshore headlines.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 1.9470 GBPNZD 0.5135
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5078- 0.5152 GBPNZD 1.9408- 1.9691
We saw strong demand in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into the weekly close against the British Pound (GBP) with investors taking advantage of “risk on” sentiment, buying up the kiwi on large to 0.5100 (1.9600). Focus was on the Jackson Hole Symposium and hinged around what road Powell would go down with regards to a tapering tactic. He won’t be winding back asset buying any time soon or hiking rates, a tough sell for the Fed chairman given inflation is still very high. The dovish tone sent the greenback lower supporting the NZD. Trading this week has been around the 0.5100 (1.9600) area and may stay around current levels with nothing of note publishing this week on the economic calendar.
Current Level: 0.5104 (1.9592)
Resistance: 0.5130 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5012-0.5016 (1.9585-1.9936)
With nothing on the economic docket this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross was taken on a “risk” ride, following other risk correlated currencies the kiwi was sought early in the week and never looked back improving to 0.5081 (1.9680) Friday from 0.5017 (1.9934) at late last week’s low. Equity markets traded just off recent all-time highs and the greenback was sold in favour of improving global sentiment. Focus this week has been about the Jackson Hole “virtual” event and the policy direction Fed chairman Powell takes. Heavy resistance sits at 0.5090 (1.9650) with price bouncing off this zone several times over the past 8 weeks, we think the NZD has been a touch to overbought and feel a reversal back towards the middle of the long term range at 0.5025 (1.9900) looks plausible.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5071 GBPNZD 1.9719
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5006- 0.5082 GBPNZD 1.9677- 1.9975
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has bounced around the 0.5010 (1.9960) area from Thursday post the RBNZ “unchanged” announcement. UK CPI y/y eased to 2.0% from 2.5% in the month of July coming off its 3 year high after market expectations were 2.3%. This brings it back within the Central bank’s target zone. UK Retail Sales posted a poor -2.5% for the month of July representative of a slowing UK economy with the delta variant denting shoppers appetites. Risk sentiment improved into Tuesday sessions with equities leading the way coming off recent declines, US indices bouncing back over 1% overnight taking the cross to 0.5030 (1.9880). Looking ahead, we have the Jackson Hole Symposium starting Friday, this will be a virtual meeting where the world’s top central bankers will discuss all things policy. We expect the kiwi to claw back some of last week’s losses possibly to the 0.5050 (1.9800) mark.
Current Level: 0.5017 (1.9932)
Resistance: 0.5090 (2.0010)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4982-0.5053 (1.9789-2.0073)
It’s been a week of heavy losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after starting out at 0.5080 (1.9680) it tumbled over 1.0% against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.4985 (2.006) through Thursday trading a new yearly low. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the cash rate unchanged Wednesday at the record low of 0.25% based on the first known case of coronavirus in the community reported just a day prior. NZ entered lockdown level 4 on Tuesday night as the virus threatens to derail normal life and set back the economy. Prior to the restrictions markets had anticipated a 0.25% increase as the first of a series, which never took place. Overall, the RBNZ was hawkish in their statement with two hikes planned by the end of the year starting October. UK CPI y/y has eased to 2.0% from 2.5% in the month of July coming off its 3 year high after market expectations were 2.3%. This brings it back within the Central bank’s target zone. The kiwi clawed back losses to 0.5015 (1.9940) post release and hovers around this are early Friday. Upcoming UK Retail Sales prints tonight. As risk markets start to improve downside moves in the pair should be limited.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5004 GBPNZD 1.9984
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4982- 0.5086 GBPNZD 1.9661- 2.0071
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross bounced off long term support at 1.9640 (0.5090) Monday as risk sentiment waned to 1.9750 (0.5065) as the kiwi was offered. Earlier UK Gross Domestic Product was estimated to have increased by 4.8% in the second quarter of 2021 bang on expectations after the easing of coronavirus restrictions. Currently the level is 4.4%, slightly below where it was pre-covid in the last quarter of 2019. The downtrend in virus cases in the UK has also supported the GBP of late with rules coming into play that fully vaccinated people no longer need to self-isolate if they are a close contact of a positive covid person. Looking ahead we have the key RBNZ Wednesday with markets predicting a 0.25% hike to 0.50% which has been largely priced into recent movement. A 50 point rise which is not out of the question would almost certainly spike the NZD.
Current Level: 0.5069 (1.9727)
Resistance: 0.5095 (1.9970)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9630)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5035-0.5090 (1.9648-1.9861)
The British Pound made an early run to 1.9860 (0.5035) earlier in the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) but couldn’t hold the momentum dropping back to 1.9650 (0.5090) as the kiwi outperformed. The GBP was weighed down by a political confrontation with Chancellor Sunak with the surprise news of a whopping 43.0% rise in the closures of businesses in the second quarter. The latest NZ Inflation expectations survey highlighted participants expect inflation to be at 2.27% in two years’ time. Currently it sits at 3.3% y/y spiking from 1.5% in the second quarter. This result is ramifications with the RBNZ meeting next week and could be just enough data the central bank needs to hike rates 50 points instead of the widely predicted 25. On the chart the long-term yearly bear channel holds its own, the NZD at the top of the recent range signalling possible further downside bias. Certainly, a hawkish RBNZ next week could be enough to end the trend.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5072 GBPNZD 1.9716
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5034- 0.5090 GBPNZD 1.9646- 1.9861
After the New Zealand Dollar reached 0.5085 (1.9660) the 14-day high mid last week against the British Pound (GBP) price recovered taking the cross into the close to the 0.5055 (1.9790) area. Monday’s action saw the GBP extend towards 0.5045 (1.9820) as the long term bear trend this year shows signs of further losses for the kiwi. A break through 0.5090 (1.9650) would signal a trend reversal but with the RBNZ predicted to start hiking interest rates next week this is unlikely to happen. With a slow week of data we may see the kiwi tick higher over the coming days as markets continue to price in future hikes.
Current Level: 0.5043 (1.9829)
Resistance: 0.5080 (1.9950)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9680)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5029-0.5082 (1.9679-1.9885)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) opened the week under pressure from the Great British Pound (GBP) trading just above the key psychological level of 0.5000 on Monday. Since then however the price action has all been in the NZD’s favor with sharp gains seen in the wake of Wednesday’s strong NZ employment data. The pair currently trades around the 0.5064 level having pulled back from the week’s high of 0.5084 in the past 24 hours. Last night’s Bank of England meeting failed to deliver any real surprise and as such the impact on the GBP was limited. We expect to see the pair continue to make gains and test the 0.5100 level next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5065 GBPNZD 1.9743
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5007 – 0.5084 GBPNZD 1.9670 – 1.9973
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stabalised around the 1.9930 area towards the end of the week after coming from a high of 1.9700 earlier in the week. All risk currencies closed the week in the red as coronavirus infections start to pick up again around the globe. UK infection numbers rose to its highest level since January this year with over 21,000 new infections in the past few days with 24 deaths. Key standouts this week are NZ employment data followed by the Bank of England policy announcement. We are expecting the BoE to raise their quarterly inflation forecasts with CPI to peak around 3.5% later in the year compared to the bank’s earlier forecast of 2.5%. On the chart we see the bearish channel coming to an end over the next couple of weeks and a directional change towards 0.5260 (1.9000). Bullish momentum in the kiwi won’t be confirmed until we see a pull back through 0.5130 (1.9500) however.
Current Level: 0.5030 (1.9880)
Resistance: 0.5100 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4987-0.5051 (1.9797-2.0053)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) run lower continued this week, to a 23 August 2020 level of 0.4985 (2.006) Wednesday squeezing past the pivotal 2/1 zone. With a light economic calendar this week markets swings have been risk based. A dovish Federal Reserve took buyers out of the kiwi together with significant recent drops in UK coronavirus cases. As global equity markets posted gains Thursday risk conditions improved and the NZD was back at 0.5030 (1.9880) in Friday trading. Key standouts next week are NZ employment data and the Bank of England Monetary Policy statement. The long term bear channel set last November in the pair should ensure further downside momentum for the kiwi, however if we focus on the RBNZ hiking rates in August we should see some pricing adjustments for this and NZD well supported. We do however need to see a break past 0.5145 (1.9440) to signal a change of trend.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5017 GBPNZD 1.9930
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4985- 0.5080 GBPNZD 1.9684- 2.006
Sideways movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) over the course of last week represented mixed economic results along with broad based risk sentiment. British Retail Sales printed up 0.5% for June after -1.4% in May showing massive demand in spending post recent lockdowns. Manufacturing showed slower growth in June once again with coronavirus woes playing a part and business outlook darkening. Tuesday’s cross trades around the 0.5065 (1.9750) zone after starting the week at 0.5080 (1.9680). Looking ahead, we have no tier one data releasing, the pair should remain in current ranges this week.
Current Level: 0.5062 (1.9755)
Resistance: 0.5100 (1.9660)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5053-0.5095 (1.9627-1.9789)
It’s been another week of sideways range trading for the NZD/GBP pairing with price action contained between 0.5050 and 0.5100. Broad swings in risk sentiment have been the main driver of movement between those two levels, but that could change tonight with some key UK data set for release. UK Retail Sales is set to hit the wires along with Manufacturing and Service sector PMI’s. While that data could certainly create some volatility, it’s hard to see a breakout of the broader 0.5000 to 0.5120 range that has contained the pair for much of the past 2 months. For the time being we look for the pair to respect those levels and no major trend to develop in either direction.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5065 GBPNZD 1.9743
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5049 – 0.5096 GBPNZD 1.9627 – 1.9807
Post last week’s hawkish RBNZ the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has held its ground against the English Pound (GBP) this week trading just off the weekly open at 0.5080 (1.9680). Clearly a reflection of last week’s RBNZ tone and the expectations of a sooner rather than later hike to the central bank’s cash rate. UK restrictions were lifted yesterday at a time when they have reported the highest number of new cases per million in the world. Experts predict the UK infections currently around 50,000 per day could grow out to 200,000 by late August, a harrowing thought. With ongoing delta variant worries and a positive NZ central bank we don’t see any reason for the cross to be trading lower than where it is. We do need to see a break however through 0.5110 (1.9550) to cement a signal higher.
Current Level: 0.5064 (1.9747)
Resistance: 0.5100 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5010-0.5095 (1.9627-1.9959)
It’s been an eventful week of movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross with plenty of volatility hinging off a bunch of a busy economic calendar. All said and done the pair trades into Friday slightly higher than the weekly open around 0.5050 (1.9800). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged as predicted at 0.25% Wednesday but brought forward their stance on hikes- pricing in an increase possibly in the August meeting or November meeting. All of the 4 major banks have accordingly priced in a 0.25% price hike from next month as the RBNZ said they would end its bond buying purchases by July 23rd. While governor Orr’s tone was hawkish she never let on his projections of timing. Incoming inflation and unemployment data releases today and early August will almost certainly cement the decision one way or another providing the necessary evidence the RBNZ needs. If the central bank raises over the coming weeks this would mean they are a whole year quicker than the May 2021 forecast of third quarter 2022. The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index has ballooned out to 2.5% y/y ending June worrying the Bank of England. Rising from May’s 2.1% this extends well above the central bank’s target of 2.0% inflation. Calls by investors and economists have voiced concerns urging the central bank to think seriously about saying when they will be deciding to hike interest rates instead of whether they should do it. The 2.5% is the highest reading since August 2018 with the central bank taking things slowly like their Atlantic friends intent on a “transitory inflation” stance as they continue to monitor the situation anxiously. Risk markets sold the kiwi overnight, but we think this is overdone and we should see a solid reversal into the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5065 GBPNZD 1.9743
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5010- 0.5093 GBPNZD 1.9634- 1.9954
A combination of factors this week have brought about a couple of solid rallies in the British Pound (GBP) as it reversed off 0.5130 (1.9500) levels to pounce back towards 0.5040 (1.9850) into Friday sessions. A risk off tone has engulfed any mood to buy risk currencies and products over the past couple of days as the delta covid variant starts to worry investors. England’s success in making it through to the Euro 2020 final yesterday when they beat Denmark is fantastic news for the poms and perhaps contributed to boost in GBP buying but the new chant could be “covid’s coming home” as the new delta variant promises to fuel fresh covid surges. Scientists warn that Euros could be blamed for massive surges in infections (over 30,000 since January) as people gather in stadiums and pubs and anywhere to watch the football. It seems the reopening of current restrictions will remain until the 19th July. Next week’s RBNZ meeting should give the NZD a leg up if they confirm interest rate hikes could start from November this year.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5033 GBPNZD 1.9868
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5034- 0.5121 GBPNZD 1.9527- 1.9862
US fourth of July Holiday celebrations made for a quiet start to the week, the British Pound gained a little on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 1.9730 (0.5070). Markets were focused on NFP release Friday with markets concluding the data wasn’t good enough to qualify as “progress’ weakening the buck and sending the kiwi higher. The NZD ended the week at a healthy 0.5090 (1.9640) after taking on losses earlier. With very little tier one economic data releasing this week movement could be limited to risk flow and coronavirus headlines. Prime Minister Johnson has lifted lockdown restrictions this morning to end on the 19th of July. He said the pandemic is far from over with vaccine rollouts to be fast tracked.
Current Level: 0.5090 (1.9646)
Resistance: 0.5110 (1.9960)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5037-0.5099 (1.9612-1.9853)
The English Pound (GBP) maintained the edge over the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Wednesday reaching 1.9850 (0.5040) as we suspected, this representing solid resistance in the cross before risk markets took over taking the kiwi higher to 0.5080 (1.9700) levels into Friday. RBNZ governor Orr spoke Tuesday and reiterated that monetary assistance is required for the economic recovery and that he was pleased to see economic activity return to pre- covid levels. UK Manufacturing came in light, the index at 63.9 vs 64.2 extending GBP lower assisted by broad NZD demand. UK covid worries may drag on the GBP lower over the coming days as the UK record high numbers of coronavirus numbers.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5058 GBPNZD 1.9770
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5037- 0.5102 GBPNZD 1.9597- 1.9852
The British Pound (GBP) extended losses into the close of the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 1.9580 (0.5110) as the hangover of the Bank of England decision weighed on the GBP. Friday’s CBI Realized Sales release, a measure of consumer spending, published fairly impressive, spiking the GBP 40 points prior to the close. Monday’s risk mood took the NZD to 0.5060 (1.9770) and could remain a factor this week with very little economic data to publish. RBNZ’s Orr speaks later today on the “statement of Intent 2021- 2024” and later, Bank of England’s Bailey speaks Thursday. Long term bears may have the upper hand this week with the cross trading at the top of the recent channel, we anticipate moves back to 0.5040 (1.9850).
Current Level: 0.5074 (1.9708)
Resistance: 0.5105 (1.9960)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9590)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5011-0.5112 (1.9563-1.9958)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has ground higher over the week against the British Pound (GBP) to reach 0.5085 (1.9670), most of the rise post last night’s Bank of England’s rate announcement and policy statement. The Bank of England left benchmark rates on hold at 0.1% in a 8-1 vote and kept its existing bond buying program in place at GBP 895B. An improving economy should mean a tightening of conditions later this year. With consumer and business confidence running high we should see a more hawkish approach on the horizon. That being said the BoE could hold off raising rates until 2023 as they gradually unwind their QE package. The bank also said current rises in inflation were “transitory” and they expect a period of high GDP growth after which inflation should fall back. On the chart the bearish channel is holding from the high of 0.5200 (1.9230) and should represent further upside in the Pound over the next while.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5076 GBPNZD 1.9700
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5010- 0.5085 GBPNZD 1.9665- 1.9960
It has been a volatile last few days in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) had the cross trading in a wide range with ultimately the kiwi underperforming to 0.5010 (1.9960) late Friday prior to the weekly close. It’s all been about the recent Fed shift in monetary policy and the hawkish approach to consider tapering their QE program sooner rather than later. The kiwi sold off across the board resulting in fresh August 2020 lows against the Pound. Meanwhile the UK and New Zealand have held productive discussions on a free trade agreement and will accelerate talks with the aim of getting an agreement in August this year. Free market access and removing tariffs over the next few years is the goal. Looking ahead, we have the Bank of England policy announcement Thursday night with expectations that the central bank will follow the US Fed’s hawkish stance amid a backdrop of improving economic growth, rising inflation and improving coronavirus vaccine rollouts. The Asset Purchase Facility vote is predicted to be 0 in favour of lengthening the program, 1 to decrease the asset program and 8/9 members voting to continue the program. More downside pressures remain for the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.5016 (1.9936)
Resistance: 0.5065 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5010-0.5077 (1.9697-1.9960)
Markets were subdued at the front of the week as investors waited for data to publish. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) camped out around 0.5060 (1.9760) for most of Wednesday. UK CPI published at 2.1% y/y higher than the 1.8% predicted, sending the cross to 0.5040 (1.9830). NZ GDP Thursday published at a whopping 1.6% for the first quarter 2021 with the NZ economy avoiding dipping into a recession after a fourth quarter contraction of -1.0%, the kiwi rallied back to the 0.5065 (1.9740) area. Thursday’s NY session took the NZD lower as risk failed and investors purchased the USD post the FOMC statement. Price early Friday has extended to 0.5025 (1.9900) and looks to retest the August 2020’s key level at 0.5000 (2.0000) in the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5027 GBPNZD 1.9892
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5021- 0.5077 GBPNZD 1.9696- 1.9913
The English Pound (GBP) is under pressure as we head into Tuesday trading easing to 0.5075 (1.9700) after a surge in coronavirus cases has caused Boris Johnson to delay lockdown easing by four weeks. The re-opening will be delayed amid fears the NHS could be overwhelmed by a flood of covid cases of the delta variant. Prime Minister Johnson said the restriction will now remain until July 19th. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may make further gain off the back of the news especially if NZ CPI q/q reports print well Thursday. UK CPI publishes first and is predicted to rise to 1.8% y/y from April’s 1.5% and put pressure on the BoE going forward. We think we should see some demand in the kiwi into dips this week to 0.5090 (1.9650).
Current Level: 0.5058 (1.9770)
Resistance: 0.5107 (1.9820)
Support: 0.5045 (1.9580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5043-0.5104 (1.9592-1.9830)
Queen’s Birthday holiday Monday meant the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded close to the open around 0.5100 (1.9600) levels. UK housing data came in much higher than was predicted with the Halifax Bank of England Index at 1.3% compared to expectations of 1.0% showing house prices in May reached another record high – adding 1.3% to values. UK homes have increased in value on average by GBP 22,000 over the past 12 months. Looking forward we have no tier one economic data publishing in the pair – expect direction to be dictated by risk factors and rising coronavirus infections in the UK. UK authorities are struggling to find a good reason to fully open restrictions on the 21st of June with a new variant causing issues amid signs of an imminent third wave developing. 0.5060 (1.9760) offers solid support in the current 2021 bearish run lower.
Current Level: 0.5083 (1.9673)
Resistance: 0.5135 (1.9815)
Support: 0.5045 (1.9470)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5056-0.5117 (1.9543-1.9778)
Talk of tapering by the Bank of England and a bumper read overnight in the ADP US employment change has seen the GBP rally hard leaving the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the dust. After meandering for most of the week around 0.5110 (1.9560) levels, price surged to 0.5065 (1.9750) over the London session. As coronavirus infections drop the UK govt has been easing restrictions and reopening the economy. Punters have been keeping a close watch over recent comments that the Bank of England will start to taper their massive monetary policy and start hiking rates. The economy is predicted to grow 7.25% this year making it almost a dead cert we will see rises to inflation and high interest rates in time. Over the last couple of hours price has backed away from 0.5060 (1.9770) the long-term low.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5066 GBPNZD 1.9739
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5056- 0.5141 GBPNZD 1.9450- 1.9777
Post last week’s RBNZ announcement the English Pound (GBP) recovered some of the losses trading back to the 0.5110 (1.9560) area against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) where the cross closed the week. Monday market conditions were thin as the UK and US markets were closed for holidays. The kiwi drifted into Tuesday slightly up at 0.5125 (1.9515). Bank of England’s Vlieghe commented that interest rate hikes for the BoE would be possible next year. Vlieghe is considered a “dovish” member of the MPC so his comments were particularly relevant. BoE chief economist Haldine also said the recovery will be “rapid” and the central bank should be “more ready to withdraw stimulus”. Apart from both central bank’s speaking this week we have no tier one economic data publishing. With coronavirus rollouts going very well in the UK this should keep the Pound bullish this week.
Current Level: 0.5113 (1.9557)
Resistance: 0.5115 (1.9750)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5091-0.5174 (1.9329-1.9642)
It’s been a big week for the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross with big movement in both directions. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announcement Wednesday sent the kiwi higher to 0.5165 (1.9370) after saying the economic outlook is improving as covid vaccinations increase globally. The RBNZ left rates unchanged at the record low of 0.25% and kept a limit of 100B for its govt bond buying purchase program. The central bank saying they could hike rates as early as the third quarter of 2022 but this was highly conditional. The RBNZ sees the cash rate around 1.5% by the December quarter of 2023 and inflation at 1.7% ending March 2022 and 1.9% ending March 2023. The disclaimer being- meeting inflation and employment targets could take considerable time and patience. With a little risk on mood and an optimistic outlook for the UK economy together with an impressive coronavirus vaccination rollout the GBP pushed back Thursday. Bank of England’s Vlieghe commented that interest rate hikes for the BoE would be possible next year. Vlieghe is considered a “dovish” member of the MPC so his comments were particularly relevant. He did however caution that rising inflation and employment need to make solid gains before any such rises. Price was back at 0.5140 (1.9470) Friday, the pound recovering some of the early week losses.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5126 GBPNZD 1.9508
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5065- 0.5174 GBPNZD 1.9327- 1.9742
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) turned sharply higher in Monday trading versus the English Pound (GBP) coming off 0.5065 (1.9740) to reach 0.5100 (1.9615) as risk sentiment improved. Equity markets in the US climbed higher with the Nasdaq leading the way up 1.8% helping to take last week’s risk off mood to risk on. Earlier the UK Retail Sales came in at 9.2% for the month of April ahead of the 4.5% we were expecting a sharp increase reflecting the easing of coronavirus restrictions. NZ Retail Sales also printed a healthy 2.5% to end the March quarter against expectations of a -1.8% read. Looking ahead we have the RBNZ cash rate and policy statement. This week’s RBNZ will set the tone for what’s to come over the following year with talk on the agenda for a lightning period. Factors like border restrictions stifling supply chains still need to be carefully considered.
Current Level:0.5094 (1.9630)
Resistance: 0.5145 (1.9800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5059-0.5139 (1.9458-1.9766)
Further “risk off” market mood and a massive UK CPI read overnight has taken price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) to fresh lows around 0.5070 (1.9730) this morning. Reports showed inflation more than doubled in April at 1.5% from March’s 0.7% with higher energy price rises, petrol, gas and electricity back at pre-coronavirus levels clearly playing a big part. Governor Bailey talked down chances of a QE taper by saying the program is unchanged at GBP895B. The NZ Annual Budget is today at 2.00pm NZT which shouldn’t move prices too much as history tells us. This is followed by UK Retail Sales tomorrow. We do expect the NZD to turn back higher over the coming months with further talk of local rate hikes starting earlier than forecast entering conversations.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5078 GBPNZD 1.9692
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5069- 0.5139 GBPNZD 1.9456- 1.9726
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened leading into the weekly close to 0.5150 (1.9430) against the British Pound as risk markets improved. It looked like the recovery in the US jobs markets eased fears of inflation rises with stocks rebounding off weekly lows. Monday’s price action has seen the kiwi sold off again back to 0.5100 (1.9620) into early Tuesday sessions. The Bank of England’s Vlieghe was on the wires suggesting the BoE will add negative rates to the toolkit starting August but over the next few months inflation will be pushed higher. Looking ahead we have UK Retail Sales in what could otherwise be a slow week. On the calendar the Pound looks to target the prior daily low of 0.5065 (1.9740) from late March.
Current Level: 0.5105 (1.9588)
Resistance: 0.5215 (1.9740)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5085-0.5155 (1.9397-1.9667)
The English Pound (GBP) stretched its legs this week outperforming the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the biggest weekly move we have seen in many months. Coming from the weekly open price of 1.9190 (0.5210) the GBP rallied to reach 1.9660 (0.5085) through Thursday. Stemming mainly from earlier stellar US inflation data, markets responded negatively as the Fed downplayed the significance. Yield prices shot up and Equities were sold off together with risk currencies. Prelim first quarterly GDP in the UK was slightly better than predicted at -1.5% from -1.6% with lockdown measures still weighing on the economy. The level of GDP sits just 8.7% below pre coronavirus. The Intl Monetary Funds (IMF) expects GDP to grow by 5.3% in 2021 with the economy snapping back as lockdown restrictions ease from May 17th. Risk currencies improved early Friday with the kiwi back around 0.5110 (1.9550)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5109 GBPNZD 1.9573
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5084- 0.5210 GBPNZD 1.9192- 1.9668
The British Pound (GBP) took back last week’s losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday recovering around the 0.5150 (1.9430) area. UK accelerating reopening, weak US jobs figures and Scottish Elections all playing a part in the GBP rally of late. UK prime Minister Johnson will deliver a statement announcing new measures in regard to Britain’s reopening while the vaccine campaign has massively cut down new coronavirus cases the government is expected to speed up the timeframe for reopening. Looking ahead we have prelim quarterly GDP q/q expected to print around the -1.6% area, a far cry from last quarter 2020’s 1.0%. The better the number, the more it will become a question on how the BoE will normalise interest rates. We think the GBP will remain bid this week in a week of thin data releases.
Current Level: 0.5142 (1.9451)
Resistance: 0.5215 (1.9480)
Support: 0.5130 (1.9170)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5135-0.5215 (1.9175-1.9473)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5135 (1.9480) levels midweek in risk off markets against the British Pound before turning positive on better than expected NZ data and BoE monetary policy statement. NZ employment data printed at 0.6% q/q versus an expected 0.3% for the 3 months ending March for the number of people employed, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.9% to 4.7% and lower than the 4.9% forecast. The news bumped the NZD higher into Friday with price reaching 0.5210 (1.9200). The Bank of England left their cash rate unchanged at 0.10% in a 0-9 vote with chief economist Hardine voting to reduce the QE purchases. The bank stayed clear of any tapering mixed messages although they did speak about a potential slowing down of QE purchases. The central bank will more than likely wait until the second half of 2023 before raising rates to 0.25%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5200 GBPNZD 1.9230
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5133- 0.5212 GBPNZD 1.9183- 1.9481
May Day holiday in the UK made for thin markets at the start of the week with the British Pound (GBP) popping up to 1.9350 (0.5170) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) before dropping back as risk sentiment improved into Tuesday supporting the kiwi. US Equity markets are again the centre of attention with prices nearing record highs boosting investor sentiment. We have a busy calendar this week in the pair with NZ employment data tomorrow followed by Bank of England monetary policy Thursday the focus. The cross looks to be consolidating in last week’s range around 1.9300 (0.5180) with expectations of little movement this week, especially if the BoE has no surprises.
Current Level: 0.5173 (1.9319)
Resistance: 0.5215 (1.9500)
Support: 0.5130 (1.9180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5167-0.5214 (1.9178-1.9352)
Risk on followed by risk off has been the order on the board this week with price extending from 0.5185 (1.9290) at the weekly close to 0.5215 (1.9180) and back again as we head into Wednesday’s trading. The UK vaccine minister says 25% of all adults have now been vaccinated allowing for further economic reopening as cases in the UK continuing to trend lower. This is assisting the Pound rally against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). US Equity prices are holding up at record highs but risk sentiment seems to be dragging the kiwi lower at the moment. Earlier, UK Retail Sales printed above expectation at 5.4% over 1.5% showing good signs the economy is slowly recovering. The Pound should continue to momentum this week.
Current Level: 0.5180 (1.9305)
Resistance: 0.5220 (1.9450)
Support: 0.5140 (1.9170)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5141-0.5214 (1.9178-1.9453)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has been shifty this week with investors trying to gauge a sense of “who’s driving what”. Early week action the pair posted 0.5130 (1.9500) but stalled out to 0.5185 (1.9290), where it has retested this area several times. UK inflation for the month of March came in at 0.7% after falling 0.4% in February and slightly below forecast of 0.8%. The increase was driven by petrol and clothes, with the cost of food items ticking lower with staple products like bread and cereals cheaper than they were prior to the pandemic. Economists expect a rise to inflation later in the year based on a pent-up demand for goods fuelled by savings of over 180B households have inadvertently saved. The central bank expects inflation will be a 1.9% by the end of 2021. Technically we have staunch resistance at 0.5210 (1.9200), a break through this zone could signal a bullish trend change.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5172 GBPNZD 1.9334
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5129- 0.5186 GBPNZD 1.9280- 1.9496
Early week moves in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross to 0.5180 (1.9300) were short-lived with the GBP coming storming back taking the price to 0.5135 (1.9470) levels. US Dollar broad weakness and the UK adding India to its travel ban list over covid variant concerns and overall market optimism from the broader recovery from coronavirus with the UK leading the way in vaccine rollout management, has added a bid tone giving the Pound some much needed momentum. NZ quarterly CPI Wednesday is our focus with predictions of a rise of 0.8% ending March after 0.5% last Q 2020. We expect this figure to be slightly higher than forecast. Big picture themes should drive movement in the later half of the week with our view of profit taking around current levels before further upside is predicted for the GBP.
Current Level: 0.5140 (1.9455)
Resistance: 0.5210 (1.9470)
Support: 0.5140 (1.9200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5102-0.5215 (1.9174-1.9602)
Talk of a late tapering in the UK economy pushed up demand in the English Pound (GBP) this week in parts. Add in a dovish RBNZ and we should have seen prices extend higher from early levels at 0.5100 (1.9600) but this never happened. Instead markets traded the “everything is rosy ” risk theme with the NZD reaching 0.5210 (1.9200) early Friday. The RBNZ left policy unchanged together with the Large Scale Asset Purchase program of up to $100B and the Funding for Lending Programme. The OCR will remain at the record low of 0.25% for some time. Comments made by Adrian Orr confirming unemployment will need to be much lower and inflation above 2.0% will take considerable time. All eyes will be on next week’s NZ Q CPI and UK Retail Sales. Until then we should see price reverse away from the 5-week high resistance.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5204 GBPNZD 1.9216
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5101- 0.5213 GBPNZD 1.9181- 1.9604
Hindered by the recent tax changes to owners of investment properties in New Zealand, the NZD continues to trade on the backfoot. In its favor over the past few days has been rises in equities and risk mood together with optimism over the UK vaccine rollout. Looking ahead we have the RBNZ cash rate and policy statement. The cash rate is sitting at the record low of 0.25% with the central bank having 100B worth of govt bonds at its disposal. Expectations are for current policy to continue but we may get wind of possible future rate hikes. We expect based on inflation targets that the central bank will hike sometime late in 2022 and again in 2023. With no other tier-one data on the economic docket this week price moves will be dictated by coronavirus related headlines.
Current Level: 0.5106 (1.9584)
Resistance: 0.5150 (1.9800)
Support: 0.5050 (1.9430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5063-0.5144 (1.9441-1.9750)
Range bound activity in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has seen the cross stay within 0.5050 (1.9800) and 0.5100 (1.9590) over the past 3 weeks. However, we have seen the pair trade to the top of this zone into Wednesday climbing from the 0.5070 (1.9730) area on recent GBP weakness. The Pound decline reflects concerns that the UK’s vaccine rollout could suffer a setback. The use of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been linked to reports that the use of it on under 30-year-olds may be halted. Fears are the vaccine rollout could dramatically slow down until the end of July depreciating the Pound to current levels. Over the past 6 weeks markets have priced in a faster paced economic recovery based on a quick vaccine distribution rollout. Price shifts will be dictated by general headline news through to the end of the week with no economic data printing.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5104 GBPNZD 1.9592
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5060- 0.5113 GBPNZD 1.9558- 1.9759
A slow start to the start of the week for the British Pound saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gain to 0.5105 (1.9590) before easing back to around 0.5085 (1.9665) early Wednesday. NZ Building Consents for February came in poor, falling 18.2%, bigger than the 5.0% we were expecting. These figures can vary month to month with variances in the building industry such as January’s larger than normal appt consents. This being said we don’t expect a sustained drop in the construction sector. Historical figures suggest April is usually a strong month for the GBP currency and the UK economy. It has taken nearly 5 years for the GBP to recover June 2016 Brexit losses… perhaps April could be the month we see the currency return to 0.4680 (2.1360) the pre-Brexit referendum level? Fourth quarter final GDP prints tonight at around 1.0%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5086 GBPNZD 1.9661
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5045- 0.5105 GBPNZD 1.9588- 1.9822
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell out of bed early this week against the British Pound (GBP) on the new NZ govt housing tax directive before extending losses into Friday. Price reached 0.5055 (1.9780) early today, the lowest level seen in the cross since October last year. The UK unemployment rate fell from 5.2% in the October quarter to 5.0% in the January Quarter improving the Pound along with Manufacturing PMI data as business activity improved across the UK in March spurred by new factory orders. Tensions between the UK and the European Union over AstraZenica coronavirus vaccine supplies could cause considerable damage Boris Johnson warned suggesting that companies would invest outside the EU if “blockades” were imposed. As risk mood improves the kiwi should receive a boost, we don’t expect the Pound to improve beyond 0.5035 (1.9860)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5061 GBPNZD 1.9758
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5059- 0.5192 GBPNZD 1.9260- 1.9765
The British Pound (GBP) came under pressure Monday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the kiwi reaching 0.5190 (1.9260) before a sharp rice reversal into Tuesday trading took the cross back to 0.5170 (1.9350). UK Prime minister Johnson has warned of the threat of the third wave of coronavirus infections across Europe and how it could make its way to European shores. Meanwhile, the (OBR) Office for Budget Responsibility now predicts a sharper return to economic normality with predictions of a quicker turnaround in GDP of 4.0% this year and 7.3% in 2022- six months ahead of earlier scheduled predictions. UK Manufacturing and Services data is on the calendar this week with UK Retail Sales Friday. We expect price to chop around current levels this week with no real direction.
Current Level: 0.5134 (1.9477)
Resistance: 0.5195 (1.9750)
Support: 0.5060 (1.9250)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5140-0.5207 (1.9206-1.9454)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.5200 (1.9220) against the British Pound (GBP) yesterday post the Fed announcement, markets were prepared to take on more risk after the Federal Reserve upgraded their growth forecast. However, it didn’t stick around long with the Bank of England Monetary Policy announcement taking the cross lower to 0.5145 (1.9440). The central bank members voted 0-9 in favour of retaining the cash rate at 0.10% and maintained policy settings to meet the 2.0% inflation target. Earlier, NZ GDP turned out a non-event coming in slightly lower than expected at -1.0% but confirming the RBNZ would not hike rates for at least 2 years.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5144 GBPNZD 1.9440
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5141- 0.5207 GBPNZD 1.9203- 1.9451
A choppy week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) saw not a lot of excitement in the cross, a slight improvement in the GBP closing the week at 0.5160 (1.9390). Poor UK data late Friday has flowed into Monday’s mood as the Pound was sold off to 0.5185 (1.9280) after a swag of poor data unimpressed markets when industrial and manufacturing production printed worse than expected. Also, January GDP printed at -2.9% painting a dark picture of how coronavirus with lockdowns has impacted the economy. The economy currently sits around 9% lower from pre- covid levels. GDP 4th Q releases Thursday before the Bank of England announces the official cash rate and monetary policy Friday. A push through the 0.5210 (1.9200) level could signal further upside for the kiwi as it breaks away from the early 2021 bearish channel.
Current Level: 0.5182 (1.9297)
Resistance: 0.5280 (1.9460)
Support: 0.5140 (1.8940)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5141-0.5191 (1.9264-1.9451)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retested the early week high at 0.5195 (1.9250) Friday against the British Pound but this support held. The Pound pushed back as demand off the back of positive UK House Price data released. It’s expected UK house prices are predicted to rise over the coming months, UK homeowners are putting off selling as the coronavirus vaccine rollout gathers pace. As pandemic restrictions ease and people re-start their pre covid lives property demand should increase. Next week’s NZ fourth-quarter GDP followed by the bank of England monetary policy and rate announcement holds our focus. For now, the bearish channel should continue for another week supporting the GBP possibly to 0.5130 (1.9500) levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5163 GBPNZD 1.9368
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5138- 0.5191 GBPNZD 1.9262- 1.9462
Failed attempts by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to take charge Friday against the British Pound (GBP) above the 0.5250 area led to the Pound regaining momentum early Monday. As markets turned risk averse the kiwi slumped to 0.5140 (1.9470) before recovering slightly to 0.5150 (1.9400). Chancellor Sunak last week unveiled his spending and taxation plans which surprises analysts, “the economy is well positioned for the coming recovery”. Technically we have a bearish channel in play from the high of 0.5280 (1.8940) late February which is signalling further downside for the kiwi and a retest of 0.5130 (1.9500).
Current Level: 0.5154 (1.9402)
Resistance: 0.5230 (1.9560)
Support: 0.5110 (1.9120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5150-0.5237 (1.9093-1.9418)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made small improvements early in the week against the British Pound (GBP) travelling to 0.5240 (1.9080) before running out of steam. In a thin week of economic releases, the standout was the UK 2021 Budget. Of note was the extraordinary unwavering support for the UK economy by Chancellor Sunak. Any optimism with vaccines and fiscal stimulus has been offset by the mention of tax increases in future as a means to repay the growing massive debt issue. A midweek selloff in the local currency saw the Pound recoup losses trading to 0.5170 (1.9350). The target for the GBP is the 3-month support line at 0.5155 (1.9400). If we see a breach past here the kiwi could suffer further losses.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5203 GBPNZD 1.9219
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5166- 0.5238 GBPNZD 1.9090- 1.9356
Volatility in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair continued into Monday with prices ranging from 0.5175 (1.9330) to 0.5230 (1.9125) with both currencies giving up gains. US equity markets came roaring back overnight, the Nasdaq up 3.0% assisting in taking the kiwi off the low. Earlier the RBNZ said they would maintain stimulatory policy and will now include the impact of housing in its mandate when making monetary policy decisions. Analysts are saying the GBP is now overvalued and has peaked- one determining factor will be the rise in yields paid on govt bonds. The recent rise in yields has been because investors dumping bonds for fear of higher inflation, which in turn would lower investment returns. Higher yields actually reflect economic growth ahead which should be supportive of equity markets and risk assets. This week’s economic attention will be on the UK annual Budget. We expect currency prices this week to be volatile but stay within recent ranges.
Current Level: 0.5222 (1.9149)
Resistance: 0.5280 (1.9380)
Support: 0.5160 (1.8950)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5175-0.5280 (1.8938-1.9323)
Early week nerves in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the British Pound taking price to 0.5180 (1.9300) were soon forgotten. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged at 0.25% maintaining its stimulatory policy but with a less dovish review, the central bank will include the impact of housing to its mandate when making monetary decisions. It’s now unlikely the bank will look to cut rates with policy going to plan over the past few months. This brought back buyers of NZD with the pair through Wednesday sessions trading back to 0.5270 (1.8970) levels erasing losses. Into Friday the kiwi has managed to hold these gains as the NZD lost ground against other currencies based on rises in yield prices and falls in equities. The NZD is now eyeing a possible retest of the daily close at 0.5285 (1.8920).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5251 GBPNZD 1.9043
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5177- 0.5275 GBPNZD 1.8955- 1.9313
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended off the 0.5210 (1.9200) area to post 0.5220 (1.9157) Monday against the British Pound (GBP), but the move was short lived. Into Tuesday the Pound has regained early losses to 0.5210 (1.9200) as UK officials say the virus infections drop 70%, 22 days after the first Pfizer dose was given. Health officials are saying they are seeing an 85% vaccine efficacy after the second dose on healthcare workers. Certainly markets are focused on the improving outlook for the UK economy, with the Brexit deal locked in and behind them the economy is placed well to post decent growth figures in the coming months particularly if the virus eases. On the chart we see a nice little channel forming from the high at 0.5360 (1.8660) and expect a retest at 0.5155 (1.9400) in the coming days/weeks.
Current Level: 0.5206 (1.9208)
Resistance: 0.5225 (1.9400)
Support: 0.5155 (1.9140)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5150-0.5222 (1.9148-1.9416)
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has continued to outperform the New Zealand dollar (NZD), driving the NZDGBP cross rate to its lowest level since early November. The market seems to be focusing on the improving outlook for the UK economy with the vaccine rollout and potential for lockdown restrictions being eased. With a Brexit trade agreement also now in place the UK is well positioned to potentially outperform its European counterparts as the pandemic eases over the coming year. There is plenty of work to be done however, with the Bank of England this week highlighting the spare capacity in the economy, and the expectation that unemployment will rise in the near term. Data releases from the UK over the coming weeks will reinforce the hole the economy fell into as a result of the lockdowns, but with the UK likely over the pandemic “hump” those releases will be viewed in a much more “historical” context than usual. We continue to see the potential for the GBP to gradually gain ground over the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5168 GBPNZD 1.9350
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5150 – 0.5220 GBPNZD 1.9156 – 1.9416
Relative strength in the Pound Sterling (GBP) has seen this pair trade sub 0.5200 for the first time since mid-November. The Pound’s outperformance of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been driven by improving sentiment toward the UK’s outlook on the back of decent GDP data, comments from the Bank of England Governor last week, and a continued decline in UK Covid cases. FPM Johnson has also made it clear that he will open the economy back up as quickly as possible. Initial support for the pair is seen around 0.5170 and that may well be tested in the coming days as further declines look likely. Any potential bounce in the pair will run into resistance around 0.5260. There is little data of note from NZ this week, while from the UK we have inflation data, retail sales, and PMI’s from the service sector and manufacturing sector to digest.
Current Level: 0.5199 (1.9233)
Resistance: 0.5260 (1.9342)
Support: 0.5170 (1.9011)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5191-0.5265 (1.8994-1.9264)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) continues to chop around between 0.5200 and 0.5300 against the Pound Sterling (GBP). This range has dominated trading since mid-January and at this stage we expect more of the same over the coming week. While we have seen decent NZ data over the past week in the form of solid employment gains and increasing inflation expectations, the GBP has also found support in the wake of the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision. The BOE left policy settings unchanged, but it was the governor’s comments that moved the market. He sounded bullish on the outlook for the economy despite the current dire economic impact of the lockdown. UK January like for like retail sale have also showed sold improvement increasing to 7.1%. vs 4.8% prior. We look for further range trading over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.5237 (1.9095)
Resistance: 0.5300 (1.9231)
Support: 0.5200 (1.8868)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5215-0.5302 (1.8861-1.9174)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) creeped up to 0.5250 (1.9040) early into Tuesday against the British Pound (GBP) on risk improvement and global equity gains. Today’s NZ employment change release for the December quarter rose sharply up 0.6% along with the NZ Unemployment Rate dropping to a remarkable 4.9% from 5.6% ending September. Price rallied as investors bought back the kiwi to 0.5265 (1.9000). Later in the week the Bank of England cash-rate and policy statement releases, we expect a 9-0 majority vote to retain it at 0.10%. Meanwhile the UK government is sticking to their election promise of not hiking income tax or VAT. We should see only mild price action ahead of the BoE release.
Current Level: 0.5264 (1.8996)
Resistance: 0.5300 (1.9200)
Support: 0.5210 (1.8860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5209-0.5275 (1.8959-1.9198)
The NZD recovered some of yesterday’s losses, trading back to 0.5237 after yesterday’s low around 0.5209. With next week’s BoE meeting, the first since the formal severing of ties with the Eurozone, expected to strike a dovish tone we look for the NZD to hold around the 0.5220 mark with a test of resistance at 0.5280 on the BoE outlook later next week. Continued lockdowns and the ongoing disruption to European supply chains, kneecap attempts for the GBP to sustain a rally on this cross.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5226 GBPNZD 1.9135
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5209- 0.5285 GBPNZD 1.8918- 1.9195
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clawed back losses against the British Pound (GBP) towards the end of the week with the GBP stumbling at 0.5210 (1.9190) levels and prices closing around 0.5250 (1.9040). With news of the first NZ community coronavirus case in two months we may see selling pressures develop over the following few days together with the risk off tone. BoE Bailey speaks today at the World Economic Forum and will cross analyse prospects of negative rates and policy. We have no relevant data printing on the docket this week for this cross. On the chart we see scope for a run up to 0.5290 (1.8900) the 50% fibonacci level of the high of 0.5365 (1.8640) and the low at 0.5210 (1.9200) before a move back towards 0.5235 (1.9100) area and below.
Current Level: 0.5261 (1.9007)
Resistance: 0.5370 (1.9170)
Support: 0.5220 (1.8620)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5205-0.5275 (1.8957-1.9213)
The NZDGBP cross currently trades at 0.5245, which is exactly where the pair was back in late November. Between then and now we have seen a couple if short lived attempts above 0.5300, but neither could be sustained and the cross has migrated back to where is feels much more comfortable. The Pound Sterling (GBP) has been helped in recent days by the release of stronger than expected inflation data, with the CPI printing at 0.6% y/y vs the 0.5% expectation. In the past few hours we’ve also seen the NZ CPI data which also came in stronger than expected at 0.5% q/q and 1.4% y/y. We expect the NZDGBP cross to continue to range between 0.5200 and 0.5300 over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5252 GBPNZD 1.9040
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5205 – 0.5287 GBPNZD 1.8915 – 1.9212
It’s been a quiet period of economic data over the Christmas and New Year period with attention mainly on Brexit. A game of two halves developed early 2021 after price supported the kiwi to 0.5370 (1.8630) before reversing sharply as markets became risk averse to 0.5255 (1.9030) at the end of last week. Momentum has stayed with the pound into thin markets Monday (US Holiday) with price at 0.5235 (1.9103) The long winding road that we know as Brexit, was finally signed by EU and UK lawmakers on the 30th of December after months of negotiations, calling it the “EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement”. Fishing companies are extremely unhappy with the fish and seafood industry being massively disrupted by stricter border controls since the start of this year. PM Johnson vowed to compensate companies affected for delays and lost income due to no fault of their own. He has pledged 23M GBP to assist. Extra bureaucratic paperwork along with additional cost and regulation has been bought in making it difficult to deliver produce to mainland Europe. NZ CPI prints Friday morning before UK Retail Sales Friday evening. Support for the kiwi is seen around the 0.5200 (1.9230) zone.
Current Level: 0.5243 (1.9073)
Resistance: 0.5285 (1.9150)
Support: 0.5220 (1.8920)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5230-0.5309 (1.8837-1.9122)
Choppy trading continues on this cross with the NZD dropping from a high on Monday of 0.5324(1.8783) to a low overnight of 0.5264 (1.8997)…has recovered slightly to currently trade around the 0.5276 mark….The Brexit decision remains pivotal for future direction, although with the Covid surge in the UK over the last 3 days along with the shutdown of virtually all traffic passenger & freight,between the UK and Europe this has potential to cause further deterioration in UK economic performance negatively impacting the GBP….Over the last two days it seems as if the Brexit deadline has taken a back-seat, however the 31st December looms and it look increasingly likely that in spite of the mammoth risks for both sides a no-deal Brexit is becoming more of a possibility….NZ fundamentals continue to favour the NZD on this cross and onl;y a sustained break below 0.5225 (1.9140) would negate this view….look for markets to be very volatile in this cross with any moves likely to be extreme, given the drop in trading volumes over the next two weeks.
Current Level: 0.5276 (1.8953)
Resistance: 0.5400 (1.8519)
Support: 0.5180 (1.9305)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5238-0.5330 (1.8761-1.9091)
After the English Pound (GBP) reversed off 1.8540 (0.5395) early in the week the currency has held momentum into Friday trading pushing higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 1.9090 (0.5240). UK Prime minister Boris Johnson says talks on Brexit are in a “serious situation” post a phone call with Ursula von der Leyen after the EU’s chief negotiator raised hopes for a Brexit deal agreement by convincing the European parliament to extend the deal deadline to this Sunday. Johnson saying if an agreement cannot be reached the UK and EU would part as mates. Third quarter NZ GDP offered some temporary relief when it published above expectation at 14.0% taking the NZ economy out of recession. A daily close below 0.5225 (1.9140) could indicate a trend change favouring the Pound.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5268 GBPNZD 1.8982
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5238- 0.5332 GBPNZD 1.8754- 1.9090
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dropped in value off the weekly open Monday to 0.5325 (1.8780) against the British Pound after coronavirus restrictions ramped up. The British Health Secretary announced London would go into the highest level of restrictions starting mid-week after a sharp rise in new cases. UK and EU negotiators are still contemplating a Brexit deal as another extension came into play- chief negotiator Barnier was also on the wires assisting to rally the GBP into early today. Price looks to be bouncing around 1.8820 as the cross awaits further directional cues. NZ third quarter GDP is our focus Thursday with predictions of a bounce back from the dire second result of -12.2% to around 13.0% growth. Wed would need a breakthrough 0.5260 (1.9020) to confirm a reversal of the current NZD rally from mid-October.
Current Level: 0.5304 (1.8853)
Resistance: 0.5400 (1.9700)
Support: 0.5075 (1.8520)
Last weeks range: 0.5235-0.5400 (1.8521-1.9101)
After drifting directionless for much of this week around the 0.5560 area, the NZDGBP cross rate has moved significantly higher in the past 24 hours. The move comes as the GBP suffers from a growing expectation that no Brexit trade deal will be agreed. While it’s certainly possible the UK and EU could manage a last minute agreement, it’s looking more and more like a very long shot. Talks will continue until Sunday, but in the event that both parties walk away with no deal in place, we would expect further, and potentially sharp, GBP weakness early next week. That could potentially see the pair move up toward resistance around 0.5475.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5335 GBPNZD 1.8744
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5212 – 0.5346 GBPNZD 1.8705 – 1.9185
Brexit news dominates movement this week in all the British Pound crosses as it looks like a deal may go down to the wire. The kiwi picked up some lazy points early Monday with the GBP sold off to 0.5305 (1.8850) after no agreement was reached after talks ended between the EU and UK. Key differences remain in three areas: level playing field, governance and fisheries. EU’s Barnier warned that Brexit negotiations between the two parties wouldn’t last past Wednesday after offering a dire assessment of prospects. Vaccine approvals and distribution should support risk in the NZD with broad-based USD weakness lending a hand. The pair trade around August 2019 levels with resistance at 0.5465 (1.8300) on the horizon.
Current Level: 0.5271 (1.8971)
Resistance: 0.5290 (1.9350)
Support: 0.5170 (1.8900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5212-0.5306 (1.8848-1.9186)
We’ve seen choppy price action in this pair over the past week with little in the way of overall direction. The pair has tried to rally on a number of occasions, briefly trading to just under 0.5300 at one stage, but ultimately it’s failed to hold onto the gains and currently trades around the 0.5260 area. The key to direction going forward lies in the outcome of Brexit trade negotiations. There are several sticking points which both parties are struggling to overcome and while talks continue it seems the EU is not going to be rushed into any decision. France recently suggested they would prefer a no deal outcome over a bad deal. With only second tier data scheduled for release from both NZ and the UK next week, the focus will remain on UK – EU negotiations as the clock ticks down to yet another “deadline”. Look for a range of 0.5240 to 0.5300 to dominate over the coming week, absent any major developments in trade negotiations.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5260 GBPNZD 1.9011
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5242 – 0.5299 GBPNZD 1.8871 – 1.9075
Optimism that a Brexit deal will finally be done benefited the English Pound (GBP) off Monday’s open with price reversing off recent highs to ease back towards 0.5255 (1.9030). News that the UK intends to approve the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine within days has also pushed the Pound higher. UK and EU negotiators have resumed talks this week in London clearly with the aim of forging out a deal of sorts. This looks to a last-ditch effort to put something together prior to the UK crashing out at the end of December. Barnier has offered the return of 18% of fish caught in British waters, Boris Johnson has rejected the offer wanting 80%. UK Manufacturing data is tonight the only tier one data of note this week. If Brexit doesn’t go well this week the pair could retest 0.5350 (1.8700) levels.
Current Level: 0.5263 (1.9000)
Resistance: 0.5320 (1.9130)
Support: 0.5230 (1.8800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5194-0.5297 (1.6947-1.7109)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has moved higher this week to trade just off the long term resistance levels around 0.5245 (1.9070). A solid break above 1.8960 would signal further upside with the next target on the chart at 0.5475 (1.8270) the July 2019 high. The outlook for a Brexit deal remains positive with headlines despite the UK threatening to pull out of further talks if the UK doesn’t compromise on key areas. Barnier has called an urgent meeting with EU fisheries ministers tomorrow in order to progress a deal, meanwhile new coronavirus tier restrictions in England will mean 55 million people will be banned from socialising with other households indoors from 2nd December. At Thursday’s UK Autumn Forecast Statement UK Chancellor Sunak said “economic emergency has only just begun”.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5245 GBPNZD 1.9065
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5187- 0.5254 GBPNZD 1.9033- 1.9277
Coronavirus news continues to be the talk of town with the British Pound (GBP) surging off recent lows against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday to 0.5190 (1.9265) from the open of 0.5220 (1.9150). Astra Zeneca’s vaccine, as it’s a British/ Swedish company, boosted the GBP after stating their vaccine was 90% effective. The difference between this vaccine is that the company will be selling the vaccine at cost making it cheaper than other vaccines. Upbeat UK Manufacturing came in at 55.2 instead of 50.5 also boosted the Pound. Meanwhile hawkish comments by bank of England governor Bailey also chimed in. A close below 0.6170 (1.9350) could indicate a trend shift ending late October’s bull rally.
Current Level: 0.5477 (1.8258)
Resistance: 0.5235 (1.9420)
Support: 0.5150 (1.9100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5187-0.5237 (1.9095-1.9279)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained on the British Pound (GBP) again this week outperforming a poor performing GBP. Momentum has been firmly with the NZD making a new high of 0.5240 (1.9090) earlier in the week and chasing 0.5250 (1.9050) the late September high. Earlier this morning Brexit negotiations were again suspended after chief EU negotiator Barnier cancelled the latest briefing. This sent panic into the pound briefly as only part of the negotiations were halted. UK Retail Sales is tonight with a poor reading expected for October which could put further pressure on the Pound.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5216 GBPNZD 1.9171
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5188- 0.5238 GBPNZD 1.9090- 1.9273
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run against the British Pound (GBP) Monday coming from 0.5195 (1.9250) to reach 0.5240 (1.9090) despite renewed demand for the Pound. Risk on sentiment favoured the kiwi as stocks rallied following another round of encouraging data for the Moderna coronavirus vaccine. The GBP recovered early Tuesday on fresh hopes a UK and EU Brexit negotiations could make progress this week, this news along with declines in coronavirus cases could support the Pound further. We prefer the likelihood of a return to 0.5180 (1.9300) this week.
Current Level: 0.5224 (1.9142)
Resistance: 0.5240 (1.9320)
Support: 0.5175 (1.9090)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5133-0.5238 (1.9092-1.9483)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5235 (1.9100) in early Friday trading. The kiwi pushing higher on Wednesday’s central bank announcement. The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday at 0.25% as well as the large asset purchases program. The committee agreed that additional stimulus would be provided through a “funding for Lending Program” (FLP) starting in December. This will allow the central bank to pass on cheap funding costs with lower interest rates to banks. UK GDP released worse than expected coming in at 15.5% for the third quarter against a 15.8% forecast, the country expanding less through to the end of September. The likelihood of the UK crashing out of the EU at the end of December got a step closer this week with talks tethering on falling apart. Meanwhile Boris Johnson is being bagged for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic hasn’t helped the Pound either sinking across the board. A light calendar next week with just UK Retail Sales.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5210 GBPNZD 1.9193
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5132- 0.5236 GBPNZD 1.9095- 1.9482
Mood sentiment into Tuesday trading took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5205 (1.9220) against the flailing English Pound (GBP), the first time we have seen price over the 0.5200 mark since late September. US Election uncertainty has gone for the while pushing up equity indices as well as commodity markets overnight. Good news from Pfizer and BioNTech companies are suggesting their coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective in preventing the virus. Exceptionally good news, certainly markets were onboard. We should get more Brexit related headlines this week as talks continue between the European Union chief negotiator Barnier and UK officials in London. Talks will be centred around state aid, climate change, employment relations and environmental protection. But there is only 10 days left (self-imposed deadline) for negotiations to be wrapped up prior needing parliamentary approval on both sides of the fence prior to the end of the year exit by the United Kingdom. Tomorrow’s RBNZ shouldn’t rattle the cages too much with no change from the 0.25% predicted. Further risk on mood could shape the NZD towards the August 2019 high at 0.5265 (1.9000).
Current Level: 0.5181 (1.9301)
Resistance: 0.5235 (1.9570)
Support: 0.5110 (1.9100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5111-0.5203 (1.9221-1.9567)
With choppy conditions over the week with US Elections on the go the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has been extremely choppy. We have seen big swings from 0.5110 (1.9570) to 0.5205 (1.9220)- with price Friday sitting around the 0.5150 (1.9425) mark. NZ unemployment for the third quarter came in at 5.3% exactly as predicted not really making a dent to price. The Bank of England left their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.10% in a unanimous decision this morning with the bank of England saying they will be pumping more cash into the economy to prop up the devastating effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The announcement took the GBP off the weekly high pushing it back towards 0.5145 (1.9440). Next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement and policy statement is our focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5162 GBPNZD 1.9372
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5101- 0.5176 GBPNZD 1.9318- 1.9603
The British Pound (GBP) has had a rough start to the week falling against the New Zealand Dollar to 1.9460 (0.5140) as lockdowns across the UK dent the Pound. The United Kingdom is preparing for a 4-week imposed lockdown ordered by Boris Johnson as the country passes the milestone of 1M cases. Scientists have warned the virus is spreading far worse than predictions. NZ Unemployment figures print tomorrow with a jump expected from June’s 4.0% to 5.3% in the September quarter as the impact of closed borders, Auckland lockdowns, and the global downturn literally “hits home”. Later the Bank of England announce their official Cash Rate and Monetary Policy, expected to retain their 0.10% rate and see a further increase to quantitative easing by 100B- the net impact on the cross this week should see choppy range bound action.
Current Level: 0.5130 (1.9495)
Resistance: 0.5150 (1.975)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9410)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5097-0.5155 (1.9400-1.9619)
Early week setbacks for the British Pound with price clocking 0.5155 (1.9400) were temporary against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price retreating to 0.5100 (1.9600) into Thursday trading sessions as risk sentiment soured. Broadly speaking the GBP has not been well supported. Optimism surrounding prospects of a Brexit agreement have been kind of keeping the currency bid depending on the day. Coronavirus fears however have been the main act in town with fears mounting of further lockdowns and social restrictions expected. Boris Johnson has to this point tried to avoid a national lockdown opting instead for a tiered system of local controls in affected areas. Yesterday’s fatalities were 280 bringing the total number of deaths over the past 7 days to 1608. Winter is shaping up to be tough months in the UK. Next week sees BoE Official Cash Rate and statement and NZ Unemployment releases.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5125 GBPNZD 1.9512
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5098- 0.5155 GBPNZD 1.9397- 1.961
After a short burst lower to 0.5115 (1.9550) Monday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) extended last week’s momentum to 0.5150 (1.9420) as risk sentiment improved. However, sentiment soured into Tuesday fuelled by a stalemate in the US stimulus talks and giant spikes in European and US coronavirus cases. New worry over packed out hospitals and economic implications as new social restrictions and curfews are re- introduced does not bode well. Recording the biggest daily increase of 20,890 since May with over 100 deaths the UK are without a doubt in a spot of bother. On the calendar this week we have no economic news which means price shifts will be headline news dependent. A significant “head and shoulder” pattern has emerged on the chart which suggests momentum could be with the Pound for a few weeks. Given the fundamental downside risks for the GBP I’m not so sure.
Current Level: 0.5131 (1.9489)
Resistance: 0.5250 (2.0200)
Support: 0.4950 (1.9050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5051-0.5148 (1.9425-1.9798)
The British Pound (GBP) strengthened during early week sessions to 0.5050 (1.9800) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) following bullish comments from chief EU negotiator Michael Barnier. “It’s entirely possible that negotiations will not succeed” was the comments from the UK government in the last few hours. Both the European Union and United Kingdom have until 1 January to secure a deal. It’s been said that exporters on both sides of the fence will face higher costs and roadblocks doing business if nothing can be agreed. This could all come at an extra cost to businesses already struggling through these tough coronavirus times. General risk mood improved overnight, the NZD recovering all early week losses and recovered to 0.5110 (1.9580). On the chart the cross is still trading in a bearish decline from 0.52’s late September levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5101 GBPNZD 1.9604
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5051- 0.5129 GBPNZD 1.9496- 1.9796
The British Pound (GBP) started the week well pushing up slightly on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5105 (1.9590). Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK continue to look like a sideshow. Who knows where this will end. After Boris voiced his distaste for further negotiations, perhaps a massive bluff?, the EU’s Barnier has said they are willing to “intensify” talks to try and work through aspects of disagreements to try and work a deal. Boris must be holding an ace up his sleeve- saying “unless there was a fundamental change” from the EU he isn’t interested in further talks. It’s been said the EU’s latest “gesture” is valid and constructive and the UK should respond in kind. An important question of whether the UK and NZ are in a deflationary or inflationary cycle based on recent quantitative easing from coronavirus will be partially answered this week when CPI figures are releases. Both countries expect numbers to be back in the positives after months of deflationary pressures. Support at 0.5090 (1.9650) looks shaky, if we see a break below this area the kiwi is staring at 0.5000 (2.000) again last seen late August.
Current Level: 0.5093 (1.9634)
Resistance: 0.5170 (1.9720)
Support: 0.5070 (1.9350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5090-0.5169 (1.9346-1.9648)
In another week of very little economic data publishing hasn’t stopped the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) visit all corners of the park. Early in the week risk on mood dominated play to 0.5170 (1.9350) briefly before a reversal saw the kiwi come off big, trading back to the weekly open at 0.5115 (1.9560) into Friday sessions. The Pound also boosted by the UK signalling the Brexit deadline would more than likely be extended to early November. We will know the decision post the end of week EU summit. Chief negotiator Barnier had proposed a two week extension and offered to work through the weekend to get a deal done. The British government has announced tougher lockdown measures in efforts to stop the out of control virus spreading further, millions of people will be unable to meet with anyone outside their household bubble. We expect the cross to ease back towards 0.5140 (1.9450) into the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5112 GBPNZD 1.9561
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 1.9348- 1.9681 GBPNZD 0.5081- 0.5168
The UK Prime Minister Johnson doesn’t think they need a full lockdown as cases rise around the regions. He has announced a three-tier system for coronavirus rules in England. Medium- which includes the rule of 6pm and 10pm of closing of pubs, high- which covers most areas under current restrictions and, very high- which is a ban on household mixing and closures of pubs and bars. The region of Liverpool will go into “very high” tier starting Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) spiked into the weekly close appreciating to 0.5120 (1.9540) levels against the British Pound (GBP) as the risk on mood continued. Monday saw a recovery for the GBP after Johnson’s Covid plan was released to media with the price back at 0.5090 (1.9650). With no economic releases this week headlines will dictate movement.
Current Level: 0.5088 (1.9654)
Resistance: 0.5120 (1.9720)
Support: 0.5070 (1.9520)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5069-0.5147 (1.9430-1.9727)
The British Pound (GBP) has extended last week’s gains on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the cross reaching 0.5070 (1.9720) before stalling and falling back to 0.5095 (1.9630) early Friday sessions. Brexit negotiations have entered a key stage this week with the markets continuing to shrug off threats of a no deal Brexit scenario. The Pound has been well supported and expecting a deal will be done. The other problem the UK is facing is a surge in coronavirus cases and new restrictions imposed. All in all the GBP holds up remarkably well. Boris is facing angry mayors of northern cities as tougher restrictions are planned to stem new infections. Looking into next week’s calendar we have no key data on the docket, we expect the kiwi to bounce back towards 0.5130 (1.9500).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5094 GBPNZD 1.9630
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5070- 0.5148 GBPNZD 1.9425- 1.9725
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) finished the week around the 0.5140 (1.9450) mark after an extremely volatile run. The Pound has held up well as we head into the week after encouraging comments between Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen offering optimism around getting a deal done. Significant issues still need to be worked through the next month of talks. This next phase of negotiations is extremely important as the end of year D day approaches. The UK’s service sector continues to recover from the sharp coronavirus led downturn earlier in 2020 as business activity rises for the third consecutive month. Coronavirus cases have surged in the UK over the past few days, making matters worse was a technical glitch with the track and trace software which meant nearly 16,000 cases were unreported between 25th September and 2nd October. Looking ahead we have a thin calendar in the pair with just governor Bailey speaking later in the week. Brexit headlines will dominate movement this week.
Current Level: 0.5120 (1.9531)
Resistance: 0.5170 (1.9650)
Support: 0.5090 (1.9340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5098-0.5175 (1.9323-1.9617)
Brexit,Brexit,Brexit….very choppy trading overnight as news out from the EU that it intends to start proceedings to sue the UK over breaking international agreements around the previously agreed Brexit deal , saw the GBP drop 1% then bounce back by the same amount. Over the week we have seen the NZD/GBP trade a 0.5077-0.5175 range, it is now sitting around 0.5160 and we expect this level to hold as we head into next week.The risk tone has improved for the NZD, thus we have held over the 0.5100 level for the last three days, next major resistance is now at 0.5220 and if the more favourable risk tone holds look for a test of this level next week. We are of the view that a Brexit deal will eventually be struck which would see the GBP strengthen but for the moment this looks in the too-hard basket for the next couple of weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5157 GBPNZD 1.9391
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5078- 0.5174 GBPNZD 1.9327- 1.9690
Again it all about Brexit on this cross, as with renewed hopes that a trade deal between the EU& UK is now more likely this cross saw the NZD weaken last week from 0.5146 to a low of 0.5077 yesterday, now trading around 0.5102 and has potential to test support back at 0.5075. We have been here many times before as news around a trade deal ebbs and flows, it will continue to be a very drawn out affair, but it would appear that the realisation is now dawning on the EU that they also need a trade deal to be done as both economies reel from the effects of the Covid-19 crisis and with cases on the increase as the northern hemisphere Winter approaches look for further knocks to both economic zones. The current trend on this cross could see a pull-back on the NZD to the 0.4950 level over the next week or so if the risk-off tone prevails and equity market weakness grows. Shorter term look for consolidation at current levels unless a substantive break of 0.5075 occurs.
Current Level: 0.5102 (1.9600)
Resistance: 0.5150 (1.9890)
Support: 0.5025 (1.9415)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5110-0.5250 (1.9057-1.9580)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has lost ground against the Pound Sterling (GBP) this week, driven lower as risk sentiment in the market soured in line with soft US equities. The pair opened the week around 0.5234 but it’s been one-way traffic since then with the cross trading to a low last night of 0.5107. The RBNZ rate statement came and went without any significant impact. While the central bank maintained a dovish tone, it was hardly a surprise and very much in line with previous statements from them. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty around Brexit negotiations and that should limit any potential further GBP out performance. We are looking for a period of consolidation in the pair between 0.5100 and 0.5200 over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5137 GBPNZD 1.9467
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5107 – 0.5247 GBPNZD 1.9059 – 1.9582
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross was jumpy to start the week with price initially improving to 0.5250 (1.9055) but fast reversing into Tuesday to 0.5200 (1.9220). Coronavirus concerns are back to haunt the British people as a second wave has established itself again with cases rising above 4,000 a day. Scientists are warning the UK could face 50,000 per day in October if the virus is not slowed with the virus doubling every 7 days. The RBNZ speaks this week on Wednesday at their monetary policy meeting with a dovish tone predicted as the central bank considers negative interest rates and extending QE. Looking ahead we have UK Manufacturing with analysts predicting the sector may have hit a snag. It’s hard to know how much of the RBNZ expectations are priced in, chances are the kiwi could remain reasonably solid this week with the Pound depreciating. Price prediction: 0.5300 (1.8870)
Current Level: 0.5199 (1.9235)
Resistance: 0.5235 (1.9400)
Support: 0.5150 (1.9100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5159-0.5256 (1.9025-1.9382)
The New Zealand Dollar sat around 0.5210 (1.9200) levels against the English Pound (GBP) through the week waiting for directional cues. Thursday’s NZ second Q GDP release printed around expectation of -12.0% at -12.2% not sparking an immediate response for a move either way. The Kiwi eased off however over the following hours to 0.5160 (1.9380) before regaining small losses as the Bank of England Monetary Policy released. The Bank of England voted 0-9 to retain the rate at 0.25% but in a dovish statement followed with comments from governor Lowe saying the Central bank are investigating ways of stepping around obstacles to make preparations for rates to dive into the negatives in efforts to lower borrowing costs. The Pound sank across the board pushing price in the pair to 0.5230 (1.9130) early during Friday trading.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5219 GBPNZD 1.9160
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5159- 0.5235 GBPNZD 1.9102- 1.9382
The British Pound continued to depreciate right up to the weekly close against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.5215 (1.9170). Extending its 3-week decline, Brexit no deal fears have done it again. Key EU/UK discussions have again broken down with the latest meeting not resolving the Market Bill conflict. Boris Johnson said the UK must reserve the right to override the Brexit agreement to protect the country’s “economic and political integrity”. The Market Bill will get its first test this week when MP’s vote, many have reservations as it will give the UK powers to break international law if it’s passed. Heavy resistance looks to be around 0.5240 (1.9080) for the pair, the highest weekly close since August 2019. Problem being we are almost certain to see further grief unfold with Brexit negotiations dropping the GBP further over the coming days/weeks. Looking ahead we have NZ second quarter GDP Thursday along with Bank of England Monetary statement and Cash rate announcement.
Current Level: 0.5217 (1.9168)
Resistance: 0.5265 (1.9580)
Support: 0.5110 (1.9000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5085-0.5236 (1.9100-1.9678)
Our initial Tuesday commentary suggested a retest of 0.5100 (1.9608) – we were correct but I don’t think many market analysis predicted the British Pound (GBP) to come off in such a way that it did. Into Friday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) price reached 0.5200 (1.9231) as the Pound was heavily sold. The Brexit train wreck is back to haunt us with the latest headline, that Boris is considering reneging on the current Brexit agreement in favour of a “no Brexit” deal. This has gone down like a warm fish milkshake with EU negotiators threatening legal action if BJ doesn’t change his position on the matter before month end. Very little progress has been made in recent talks especially on the key issue of the Irish border situation. Looking ahead we have key NZ data next Thursday with second quarter GDP releasing.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5196 GBPNZD 1.9245
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5063- 0.5204 GBPNZD 1.9215- 1.9750
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) kicked off the week on a positive tone trading to 0.5095 (1.9630) against the British Pound (GBP) after the GBP was sold off on Brexit concerns. Brexit uncertainty is doing the rounds again with BJ and the Govt understood to be prepared to walk away from EU negotiations. Johnson may introduce the internal market bill to override the withdrawal agreement. UK coronavirus numbers are increasing in the UK with 2,948 cases Monday being reported following the previous day’s 2,988. These are clearly worrying signs for not only UK citizens but could also further impact the sterling as well. The recent bullish run from 0.4930 (2.0270) in late August should continue this week with price to retest 0.5100 (1.9590). No economic announcements on the calendar.
Current Level: 0.5087 (1.9657)
Resistance: 0.5115 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5018-0.5096 (1.9624-1.9929)
Price extended Thursday to our predicted region around 0.5080 (1.9670) levels in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) before reversing sharply as risk markets deteriorated Thursday. The kiwi was back around 0.5045 (1.9820) Friday. Bank of England governor Ramsden warned this week of risks to the UK economy. He said the level of Britain’s economic output could be permanently 1.5% lower than before the pandemic. The BoE has more room to bring in more QE if they needed to in the form of bond buying. The RBNZ signalled no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) being overvalued and started conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates in efforts to ward off low inflation, these comments sent the NZD backtracking.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5049 GBPNZD 1.9805
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5018- 0.5084 GBPNZD 1.9671- 1.9929
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed the English Pound (GBP) the first week since late July to 0.5045 (1.9830) rounding off August trading on a high recovering back above key 0.5000 (2.000). The Bank of England Governor spoke at the Jackson Hole event saying the Covid crisis to date has demonstrated that QE and forward guidance has been effective, “we are not out of the firepower by any means”. Another quiet week on the calendar with only BoE governor speaking Friday. The daily chart looks to be confirming further support in the kiwi, 0.5100 (1.9600) is the next level of resistance. With a little help from risk sentiment price could extend to this area over the week.
Current Level: 0.5040 (1.9841)
Resistance: 0.5090 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4968-0.5064 (1.9746-2.0129)
After 4 straight weeks of losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), vs the British Pound (GBP) the kiwi has recovered through pivotal 0.5000 (2.000) to reach 0.5035 (1.9870) as risk markets improved. Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole event targeting inflation which will more than likely leave borrowing costs very low for some time. Markets saw this as good news buying up NZD. The number of UK coronavirus cases has jumped to its highest level since mid-June as 1522 new cases were reported yesterday. A worrying sign looks to be developing as the cases across Europe beginning again in the UK are on the rise after falling in June. Tonight at the Jackson Hole Symposium via satellite – Bank of England governor Bailey speaks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5030 GBPNZD 1.9880
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4969- 0.5040 GBPNZD 1.9841- 2.0121
The British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week around the 0.5000 mark after reaching 0.4933 (2.0270) clawing back losses late in the week. Into Tuesday we have not seen much excitement in the cross as it still hovers around 2 to 1. NZ Retail Sales published up on expectation for the June quarter at -14.6% compared to -16.3% expected but it’s a terrible result nonetheless. It’s clear to see that retailers in the coronavirus affected environment ending 30 June struggled, plummeting by a whopping 15%. Spending for eating out and accommodation, vehicles and fuel fell sharply compared to the June 2019 quarter. Late in the week at the Jackson Hole Symposium via satellite Bank of England governor Bailey speaks. Expected direction this week: neutral
Current Level: 0.4985 (2.0060)
Resistance: 0.5010 (2.0270)
Support: 0.4930 (1.9960)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4934-0.5037 (1.9855-2.0269)
Risk mood deteriorated as the week wore on with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) succumbing to levels not seen since the 18th of May this year. The physiological barrier at 0.5000 (2.000) hasn’t held, the British Pound (GBP) too strong for the kiwi, the cross reaching 0.4945 (2.0215) Friday. UK’s m/m inflation came in hot at 1.1% for July up from 0.8% for the same time in June. Year on year improvement of 1.0% from the 0.6% anticipated pushed buyers into Pound. It’s hard to see the NZD improving over the medium term, next week’s calendar has just NZ Retail Sales. The Dovish RBNZ should keep the NZD under pressure for a while.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4938 GBPNZD 2.0251
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4934- 0.5037 GBPNZD 1.9851- 2.0266
The British Pound (GBP) has improved for the 5th straight week over the depleted New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price falling through psychological support at 0.5000 (2.000) Monday to 0.4980 (2.0080) into Tuesday sessions. This marks the lowest level in 2 months as the 50-day moving average comes into view offering additional supportive structure for the Pound. We think with a lack of data publishing this week the cross may consolidate around this level as investors digest recent action. UK Manufacturing is our only focus printing Friday. Further upcoming Brexit negotiations between UK and EU negotiators this week for the 7th round and will be interesting with the UK hoping for a trade deal by next month. Based on last week’s dovish RBNZ we continue to think the kiwi will lose value to the next daily support level at 0.4960 (2.0158) this week.
Current Level: 0.4990 (2.0040)
Resistance: 0.5035 (2.0160)
Support: 0.4960 (1.9860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4980-0.5063 (1.9753-2.0081)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended its decline to 0.5012 (1.9950) against the British Pound (GBP) as it looks to possibly break the 0.5000 (2.000) long term physiological level. The bank of New Zealand came out dovish as we predicted and increased their asset buying program from 60B to 100B in efforts to get more cheap money into the NZ economy. They have not written off taking the 0.25% current interest rate into the negatives, this clearly will depend on how well the economy handles the current second wave of coronavirus and the new lockdowns introduced earlier this week. The UK’s preliminary GDP for the second quarter came in less than ideal at -20.0% but was slightly better than expected. This puts the UK formally into a recession after first quarter figures were also negative at -2.0%. The small pickup in the June numbers were positive however as businesses went back to work. We expect more downside for the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5005 GBPNZD 1.9980
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5006- 0.5065 GBPNZD 1.9745- 1.9976
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regained momentum Friday against the British Pound (GBP) trading back to 0.5100 (1.9620) but failed to push on. Trade secretary Truss said negotiations with Japan were going well but has recently stalled over blue cheese demands. Meanwhile Bank of England’s Ramsden said their debt response was necessary in light of coronavirus and the central bank had further room to move if necessary. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases the official cash rate and monetary statement tomorrow with a growing expectation the RBNZ may hold fire on introducing further stimulus. Expected weekly direction: Retest of 0.5100 levels.
Current Level: 0.5039 (1.9845)
Resistance: 0.5090 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9650
Last Weeks Range: 0.5034-0.5097 (1.9618-1.9865)
The Bank of England unanimously voted 0-9 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged last night with no plans from Governor Andrew Bailey to bring in negative interest rates over the coming months. They also decided to leave the size of the bond buying program unchanged at 745B. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was sought post release trading from 0.5040 (1.9840) to 0.5090 (1.9650). Earlier in the week NZ Unemployment published at 4.0% for the second quarter down from the 4.2% in the first quarter and lower than the predicted result of 5.5% posing questions to the validity of the figure. Analysts are calling it a glitch in the system. The great result was however largely ignored by markets.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5087 GBPNZD 1.9658
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5036- 0.5096 GBPNZD 1.9623- 1.9855
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke through daily support at 0.5195 (1.9250) last week against th British Pound (GBP) on its way to 0.5060 (1.9768) into Monday trading. The Pound has been one of the weakest currencies for a long time now but with price at the lowest level since early June the Pound is gathering support and could be building a healthy correction. This week’s NZ employment numbers Wednesday before the Bank of England official Cash rate and policy statement is our focus this week. It will be steady as she goes for the BoE with coronavirus numbers looking better as well as recent data. Expected weekly direction: A retest of 0.5000
Current Level: 0.5059 (1.9766)
Resistance: 0.5180 (1.9960)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5054-0.5195 (1.9248-1.9787)
With nothing on the calendar this week for the kiwi (NZD) and British Pound (GBP), movement in the pair has been limited to offshore developments. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended its run lower over the week against the Pound (GBP) reaching an 8-week low of 0.5075 (1.9700) early Friday before sharply recovering to 0.5120 (1.9540). Looking ahead the key standouts next week are NZ employment and the Bank of England official rate release.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5100 GBPNZD 1.9607
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5078- 05210 GBPNZD 1.9193- 1.9690
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), English Pound (GBP) is bouncing around 0.5190 (1.9260) into Tuesday consolidating around this level after a big move last week from 0.5260 (1.9000) As risk flow suited the Pound the kiwi was sold off towards the end of the week in the wake of disappointing US jobless claims and favourable UK data. Retail Sales printed at 13.9% for June after a disappointing May’s -18.0% and UK’s private sector growth hit a 5 year high as businesses opened up after coronavirus lockdown measures, both assisting to boost the GBP higher. This week’s calendar is nude with no tier one data to publish suggesting price could well just bob around current levels.
Current Level: 0.5192 (1.9260)
Resistance: 0.5265 (1.9570)
Support: 0.5110 (1.9000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5176-0.5262 (1.9004-1.9321)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was driven higher against the Great British Pound (GBP) this week largely on the back of broad-based positive risk sentiment. Local economic data has been pretty thin this week and it’s had little impact on the market. Strong global equity markets and talk of potential Covid vaccines by the end of the year helped to propel the NZD to a high of 0.5262 (1.9003) against the Pound. The pair actually had two solid cracks at that level in as many days, but both failed to kick on and in the past 12 hours the NZD suffered, as did equity markets, in the wake of disappointing US weekly jobless claims data. This has seen the pair trade back to the just above 0.5200 (1.9231) currently. There is a raft of UK data set for release tonight in the form of Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Consumer Confidence. With the 0.5260 (1.9011) area looking now to provide solid resistance, clients wanting to convert NZD to GBP should take advantage of any further rallies toward that level.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5207 GBPNZD 1.9205
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5176 – 0.5262 GBPNZD 1.9004 – 1.9321
Although currency markets started the week in a positive mood, with risk sentiment high the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5190 (1.9260) . Bank of England’s chief economist Haldine came out saying he insists the British economy is underway in its V shaped recovery despite concerns by other policymakers that the economy is struggling and job cuts to follow will send the unemployment rate higher and GDP lower. His statement gave the Pound a boost together with news of the Oxford University coronavirus vaccine going very well. The Vaccine is a joint venture with British-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca who say the vaccine is safe and promising in early human trials. In 1077 human trials they hope the vaccine can stimulate the production of T cells and stay in the body’s circulation for years and serve as a permanent guard against the virus. Further pound rallies are limited to 0.5160 (1.9370) support.
Current Level: 0.5191 (1.9265)
Resistance: 0.5250 (1.9380)
Support: 0.5160 (1.9050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5188-0.5240 (1.9085-1.9274)
Price shifts over the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) were non-existent with action constrained to pivoting around the 0.5210 (1.9190) area. The number of people claiming unemployment in the UK decreased in June by 28,000 holding steady during the coronavirus pandemic as it destroyed business. But signs are overwhelming that numbers are set to skyrocket in the July jobs report predicted to be as bad as levels not seen since the 1980’s. GDP for the second quarter is expected to print around -23% and third quarter even worse. It’s shaky times for the Pound especially given they are trying to negotiate a Brexit deal.
CThe current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5206 GBPNZD 1.9208
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5190- 0.5228 GBPNZD 1.9125- 1.9267
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed last week against a surging British Pound (GBP) trading to 0.5200 (1.9220). Movement into Tuesday has been shifty with price still around opening levels. The UK govt announced a GBP 9B job retention bonus plan, temporary tax cuts on home purchases up to GBP500,000 and lowered VAT on hospitality and tourism industries. The UK govt has also announced 705M GBP in funding for new border infrastructure once the UK leaves the EU at the end of the year. This has given the Pound renewed optimism. Thursday’s June quarter CPI could inject further volatility into the cross especially if the release is worse than the -0.5% expected.
Current Level: 0.5204 (1.9215)
Resistance: 0.5255 (1.9280)
Support: 0.5185 (1.9020)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5257-0.5190 (1.7139-1.7381)
After 7 weeks of improvements by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the British Pound (GBP) the kiwi will most likely close the week in the red. Early week positive risk mood took the pair to 0.5260 (1.9020) a fresh Sep 2019 high but this wasn’t to last with price shifting back to 0.5200 (1.9230) levels into Friday sessions. The UK govt announced a GBP 9B job retention bonus plan, temporary tax cuts on home purchases up to GBP500,000 and lowered VAT on hospitality and tourism industries. This has given the Pound a renewed lift with the GBP looking to advance further in the near term. Chancellor Sunak gave a heavy weighting to job losses saying this is the most urgent challenge we face right now. The Pound also pushed higher on reports the EU and UK were close to finding a “happy zone” in the issue with fishing rights as part of the Brexit negotiations. The pair is still very much shifting in the bullish channel from mid-April lows. It’s tough to favour a break lower for the kiwi, expectations are for a retest of recent highs around 0.5265 (1.9000) in the coming sessions.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5203 GBPNZD 1.9220
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5197- 0.5258 GBPNZD 1.9018- 1.9239
After a shifty start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair the kiwi has registered a fresh high early Tuesday of 0.5255 (1.9035) breaking past the previous 0.5245 seen (1.9065) last week. Risk sentiment improved in a quick wave of demand for risk products, equity markets are all around 1.5% higher on the day. Brexit negotiations got underway again last week with EU’s Barnier saying the EU still have serious differences over a post Brexit deal. Angela Merkel urged Brussels to plan for a no deal Brexit scenario with the UK as tensions look to rise in the coming weeks. It is said that the more Johnson stays out of the negotiations the easier it will be to lock down a deal. The kiiw now targets the resistance level at 0.5290 (1.8900), we feel it will be a tall order and are picking a reversal medium to long term.
Current Level: 0.5246 (1.9062)
Resistance: 0.5260 (1.9270)
Support: 0.5190 (1.9010)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5185-0.5257 (1.9021-1.9287)
Over the last few trading sessions the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been camped out around recent highs at 0.5225 (1.9140) levels against the English Pound (GBP). A solid push through 0.5230 (1.9120) could signify bigger moves to the topside for the kiwi. Investors are feeling good about vaccine updates in recent sessions which has pushed up risk currencies- the kiwi doing well coming from 0.5185 (1.9290) Wednesday. PM Johnson has pledged a new plan to the economy to deal with post coronavirus times by unveiling government plans to “build build build” – he wants to accelerate plans of 5B on infrastructure plans. Meanwhile the UK are calling China’s new Hong Kong security law a violation of the treaty between the UK and China. Bank of England’s Haskel has reportedly made the statement that second quarter growth won’t be as dire as first thought.A slow week on the calendar next week with only ANZ Business Confidence to print.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5224 GBPNZD 1.9142
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5185- 0.5230 GBPNZD 1.9120- 1.9287
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its bull mood into Tuesday to 0.5230 (1.9120) against the British Pound a fresh August 2019 – 9 month high. The Pound finished the week on a sour note falling heavy in response to Brexit roadblocks and poor risk sentiment. Inventors are becoming worried about the fate of the Pound as the risks of a no deal Brexit and a second wave of coronavirus threaten to severely impact the UK economy. This week the latest round of Brexit discussions get underway with little hope of any progress being made. If we get a daily close ahead of 0.5220 (1.9150) we could see further momentum in the NZD over the week.
Current Level: 0.5218 (1.9165)
Resistance: 0.5230 (1.9400)
Support: 0.5150 (1.9120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5135-0.5229 (1.9123-1.9473)
A solid UK Manufacturing read with a sharp turnaround in momentum for June together with a dovish RBNZ has seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slip against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5175 (1.9320) The Bank of England increased its asset buying program by an additional 100B recently and Brexit hopes are on the rise that the EU and UK can compromise a deal with further negotiations to start on 29 June. The long term bullish channel from 0.4770 (2.0970) mid-April, has held another week but the kiwi looks well over extended in the move. A break back through 0.5100 (1.9620) would see the end of NZD momentum. Certainly, if second wave coronavirus breaches community spread and the RBNZ increase their QE package this could spell trouble.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5169 GBPNZD 1.9346
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5135- 0.5226 GBPNZD 1.9139- 1.9472
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run higher against the British Pound (GBP) into Tuesday to 0.5220 (1.9160) as risk sentiment improves. Since the Bank of England left their benchmark rate on hold last week the Pound has been the worst performing currency. Adding to the GBP woes was Friday’s round of UK data which was mixed- retail Sales came in stronger but the trade deficit was wider. The central bank increased its asset buying program by an additional 100B. Brexit hopes are on the rise that the EU and UK can compromise a deal- further negotiations will kick off on 29 June. The kiwi has made a convincing break through 0.5200 (1.9230) passing resistance and is trending higher. Tomorrow’s RBNZ may add volatility around the rate and policy announcement especially if we see a dovish spiel by Orr. For now the cross is trading at the September 2019 high.
Current Level:0.5189 (1.9271)
Resistance: 0.5215 (1.9560)
Support: 0.5110 (1.9170)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5102-0.5221 (1.9153-1.9599)
The New Zealand Dollar has extended its run higher against the British Pound (GBP) this week reaching 0.5195 (1.9250) Friday. This level marks an August 2019 high blowing through the December 2019 high at 0.5155 (1.9400) with ease. The Pound has been the worst performer overnight after the Bank of England increased its asset buying program by an additional 100B. Leaving their cash rate on hold at 0.10% the voting was 1-8 in favour. In all the flurry the GBP has been sold off. The kiwi has an opportunity to make a clean break higher now, given the differential between second quarter GDP expectations we expect a return to 0.5400 (1.8520) style levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5167 GBPNZD 1.9353
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5101- 0.5196 GBPNZD 1.9244- 1.9601
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher off the weekly open to 0.5150 (1.9425) against the British Pound (GBP). The UK will begin human trials “take 2” this week on another coronavirus vaccine. This second trial is backed by 52M in funding and is based on technology called self- amplifying RNA. If the vaccine shows promising results, they will go large with trials on a larger 6,000 volunteers. NZ first quarter GDP prints this week and should come in around -1.0% putting pressure on the kiwi. The Bank of England official Cash Rate and statement also publish Thursday. With the economy shrinking a whopping 25% in April and May, comments will be closely watched as to their forward guidance deep into the second quarter and beyond. Price is hovering around the December 2019 high, a push through 0.5150 (1.9420) could spell more upside for the kiwi
Current Level: 0.5132 (1.9485)
Resistance: 0.5160 (1.9760)
Support: 0.5060 (1.9390)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5093-0.5170 (.9342-1.9636)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed off 0.5160 (1.9370) early this week to track lower against the British Pound (GBP) as risk sentiment turned. Reaching a low into Friday of 0.5095 (1.9620) we have seen sellers of kiwi return. The OECD was out saying the UK economy is expected to suffer the worst coronavirus damage in the developed world but for now markets have concentrated on the fallout from a dovish US Fed midweek which has shifted risk related products negative in the past 36 hours. UK GDP for April publishes tonight with expectations of an abysmal 18% drop to growth. This could turn the NZDGBP back towards 0.5155 (1.9400) again in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5107 GBPNZD 1.9580
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5093- 0.5162 GBPNZD 1.9370- 1.9633
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to outperform the British Pound (GBP) into Tuesday reaching 0.5155 (1.9395) as the “risk on” market mood lengthens. Brexit negotiations haven’t been overly productive of late with BoE Haldine making the comment “the economy has collapsed” seeing an unprecedented level of lethargy in the labour market. Looking ahead we have UK GDP on the docket Friday for May which is expected to print at an astounding -18.0% fast approaching a formal recession. With the kiwi closing at 0.5160 (1.9390) today (NY time) this marks the breakthrough the yearly high of 0.5135 (1.9480) with 0.5235 (1.9100) the next target.
Current Level: 0.5145 (1.9436)
Resistance: 0.5160 (1.9700)
Support: 0.5075 (1.9370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5000-0.5162 (1.9373-2.0001)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to outperform the English Pound (GBP) for the 3rd straight week trading into a fresh level of 0.5070 (1.9710) Wednesday. Reversing off 0.5000 (2.000) yesterday, the Pound received some interest on more encouraging EU-UK trade talk negotiations, but overall risk sentiment is driving risk currencies into a second week with equity markets all showing rises. PM Johnson is planning a big speech on the UK economic revival sometime this month. Looking ahead we have nothing on the economic docket of significance for the remainder of the week, through to next week’s ANZ Business Confidence Tuesday. We do expect risk mood to wane towards the end of the week and expect the price to reverse back towards the 0.5040 (1.9850) zone.
Current Level: 0.5095 (1.9627)
Resistance: 0.5145 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9440)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5000-0.5090 (1.9645-2.0001)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its bull run against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5060 (1.9760). With a thin week of meaningful data to report and a UK holiday Monday we have not seen big moves eventuate. NZ’s Financial Stability Report was published by the RBNZ with the central bank putting the NZ financial system in a good spot to support recovery. With price continuing to trade below the 50 days moving average we could see the yearly high of 0.5130 (1.9480) tested especially if risk markets remain positive.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5023 GBPNZD 1.9908
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5000- 0.5061 GBPNZD 1.9757- 2.000
The GBP has weakened against the NZD with the Kiwi rising from 0.4900 to 0.5028 over the last week as the UK response to the economy reopening continues to be muddled. The NZD/GBP cross is now around the 0.4995 level and we look for further gains back into the 0.5005/30 region over the next few days. Any move above 0.5000 should be seen as good buying levels for GBP.
Current Level: 0.5002 (1.9992)
Resistance: 0.5030 (2.0350)
Support: 0.4914 (1.9880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4891-0.5029 (1.9884-2.0444)
The English Pound extended its losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the pair reaching 0.5020 (1.9910) into Friday trading. This is the first time we have seen a daily close above the pivotal 0.5000 (2.000) since the 30 January. Bank of England Governor Bailey is still not ruling out anything with regards to negative rates and is keeping the zero lower band rate closely watched. The UK government launched its GBP 500M “Future Fund” Wednesday to assist with start-up businesses needing cash to survive. The scheme will assist with loans ranging from GBP125,000 to 5M. The number of people in the UK who filed for unemployment for April was 856,000 higher than the expected 675,000, the news weakening the GBP. We don’t expect prices to stay at these levels, buyers of Pounds should consider.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5000 GBPNZD 2.000
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4909- 0.5029 GBPNZD 1.9882- 2.0370
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is testing the prior daily resistance at 0.4960 (2.0160) against the British Pound Tuesday morning. A risk sentiment led recovery in the kiwi has taken it from last week low of 0.4885 (2.0475) as punters took on more riskier products. The Pound weighed down by a number of factors recently including stalled Brexit talks, with chief negotiator Frost warning of a no-deal outcome if talks fail in the next 15 days. The BoE is also reviewing monetary policy to include riskier asset purchases as it runs out of ammunition to get money flowing back to consumers and businesses. I suspect we may see a little buyer interest in the GBP towards the end of the week. On the calendar both NZ and UK Retail Sales print Friday which will make for fairly cringeworthy reading as figures will be terrible.
Current Level: 0.4945 (2.0221)
Resistance: 0.4730 (2.0460)
Support: 0.4890 (2.0130)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4884-0.4972 (2.0112-2.0475)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slumped to 0.4880 (2.0480) midweek against the British Pound (GBP) on a dovish RBNZ giving up its 7-week bullish run. The kiwi started the week against the wall after ANZ Business Confidence printed poor before Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate and monetary policy sank the kiwi. The benchmark rate remains unchanged at 0.25% but Orr’s comments around negative rates towards the end of the year spooked markets as investors exited the kiwi. Orr increased the QE package to 60B which was expected but his overall dovish outlook didn’t go unnoticed. UK first quarter GDP estimate fell by 2.0% marking the largest drop since the last quarter 2008 an undeniable effect of coronavirus is having on the UK economy. Next week’s key data is both UK and NZ Retail Sales. We suspect the kiwi may have the upper edge leading into the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4907 GBPNZD 2.0377
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4884- 0.4970 GBPNZD 2.0120- 2.0475
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke higher into new territory Monday to 0.4960 (2.0160) a 7-week high against the British Pound (GBP). Price at this area didn’t last with a sharp reversal to 0.4930 (2.0300) in Tuesday sessions. Brois Johnson’s speech saying he was keen to plan the UK for gradual re-opening of the economy went mostly ignored by markets. The RBNZ monetary statement announced tomorrow is the highlight this week with expectation the RBNZ may add additional stimulus to negate the coronavirus fed economic slump. From the 0.4762 (2.0980) low mid April we have seen higher highs and lower lows consistently every week with price trading well above the 50 day moving average. Bias however is limited to the upside – we expect a reversal in the kiwi as risk markets turn.
Current Level: 0.4922 (2.0316)
Resistance: 0.4960 (2.0700)
Support: 0.4830 (2.0160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4854-0.4964 (2.0146-2.0601)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 0.4925 (2.0300) against the British Pound (GBP) over the week reversing last week’s gains to meet resistance at 0.4930 (2.0270) into Friday with the return of risk. The Bank of England voted 9-0 in favour to keep rates on hold at 0.10% this morning setting monetary policy to try and meet the banks 2.0% inflation target to assist with employment and growth. The committee also voted 7-2 in favour of the bank retaining its 200B government bond buying programme. The bank said the outlook for the UK remains uncertain with inflation declining to 1.5% in March and likely to fall below 1.0% over the following months reflecting the fallout of coronavirus. Wednesday’s NZ unemployment jumped a further 5,000 in the March quarter to take the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.0% slightly better than the expected 4.4%. Clearly these first quarter figures only partially reflect the overall economic fallout from coronavirus with expectations of employment and growth to rise significantly over the second and third periods. We may see further BoE dovishness creep into price but we expect the decline in the GBP is limited.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4924 GBPNZD 2.0308
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4828- 0.4931 GBPNZD 2.0276- 2.0709
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) took a short flight to the 5-week high of 0.4940 (2.0250) mid last week against the British Pound (GBP) before giving back gains to close the week out around the 0.4840 (2.0660) mark. Tensions between China and US officials are heating up which has contributed to a decent chunk of the recent risk off flow. NZ employment numbers for the first quarter print tomorrow along with the unemployment rate number for the Q1 which is expected to be around 4.4%, way lower on the number for the second quarter which could be up around 9.5%. The Bank of England also announce their cash rate and monetary policy which should have a unanimous vote of 0-9 in favour to keep the rate at 0.10% We don’t see price wavering far from current price around 0.4850 (2.0600) this week.
Current Level: 0.4861 (2.0571)
Resistance: 0.4890 (2.0700)
Support: 0.4890 (2.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4828-0.4941 (2.0237-2.0713)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) backed away from heavy resistance around the 0.4915 (2.0340) level last week instead creating a meaningful top at 0.4885 (2.0470) having bounced off this area several times. This week has been no exception, travelling to 0.4830 (2.0715) only to return to 0.4880 (2.0500) into Tuesday. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned to work after his bout into intensive care, warning against an early lift to coronavirus restrictions worried that they could see a spike in second wave infections. The UK has called on the EU to show support to extend the transition out of the EU for up to two year based on the fallout with coronavirus which has been massively disruptive. It’s difficult to see how the UK and other countries coils agree even on the simplest trade agreement with talks so far behind. Expect a pickup in the Pound over the next couple of weeks with downside bias in the kiwi also anticipated.
Current Level: 0.4889 (2.045)
Resistance: 0.4900 (2.0780)
Support: 0.4812 (2.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4800-0.4892 (2.0443-2.0832)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) moved this week between recent ranges bouncing between 0.4815 (2.0780) and 0.4880 (2.0480). Investor sentiment also supported the kiwi during overnight sessions Thursday back to the weekly high. Based on massive business shutdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic UK Manufacturing and Private Sector output continues to print dire results in the middle of a public health crisis. The results highlight the worst decline in business activity for over two decades. 27% of the UK workforce is on forced leave with around 25% of businesses are closed. UK Retail Sales prints tonight and is expected to show a decline of 4.5% for March. The good news out of UK is that coronavirus numbers continue to decline on a daily basis. Deaths also show a downward trend down to 616 from yesterday’s 823 shows promise. With cases very low in NZ we this will contribute to upward pressure in the kiwi- we expect a retest of the daily close at 0.4895 (2.0430)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4849 GBPNZD 2.0622
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4800- 0.4885 GBPNZD 2.0469- 2.0832
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) perked up Monday after the lockdown 4 level was announced to be relaxed to level 3 on the 27th of April. Reaching 0.4885 (2.0470) against the British Pound (GBP) the kiwi extended its run from last week’s low of 0.4765 (2.0980). UK PM spokesman Slack said he was not able to say when the lockdown would be relaxed and the government would review extension of the virus job retention plan. Bank of England’s Bailey said UK banks must “get on” with providing loans to small and medium size businesses to counter the effects of coronavirus to the economy. The NZDGBP will continue to trade in a sideways manner for now as it has done over the past 3 weeks and should trade back towards the lower baseline at 0.4760 (2.1000) over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.4841 (2.0656)
Resistance: 0.4895 (2.0900)
Support: 0.4785 (2.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4765-0.4886 (1.0475-1.0624)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gave back most of last week’s gains into Tuesday falling back to 0.4820 (2.0760) against the British Pound (GBP) Boris Johnson’s stand in Raab said the government is planning to extend the national lockdown. UK Chancellor Sunak said over the weekend that UK GDP could fall 30% in the second quarter as a direct result of the Covid-19. Markets are feeling better after Boris Johnson was released from hospital. We have no tier one data to publish this week; headline coronavirus news will drive price movement over the remainder of the week. It’s possible we could see a reversal back to 0.4890 (2.0450) as risk improves.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4814 GBPNZD 2.0770
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4813- 0.4899 GBPNZD 1.0286- 1.0569
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off last week’s- 3 week low of 0.4750 (2.1040) into Tuesday trading recovering losses as risk sentiment improved. US Equity markets are up well over 6% on the day as coronavirus numbers improve in Italy and New York. Optimism around the outlook has enhanced as the global death toll dropped in key places. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been transferred to the Intensive Care unit as his symptoms worsen. First secretary of state Dominic Raab has stepped in. The Bank of England said they would keep the current pace of the bond buying program unchanged at GBP 13.5Billion for this week to support the struggling economy. We expect the retracement to continue with the pair to meet the 50 days moving average at 0.4895 (2.0430) in the coming days.
Current Level: 0.4855 (2.0598)
Resistance: 0.4895 (2.1040)
Support: 0.4750 (2.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4891-0.4754 (2.1037-2.0445)
After hovering around the weekly opening price of 2.0600 (0.4855) into Tuesday the British Pound (GBP) picked up the pace, extending its bullish run from the previous week’s low of 1.9955 (0.5012) to 2.1030 (0.4755) during early Friday trading. ANZ Business Confidence for March made for awful reading with a net 64% surveyed expecting business conditions to deteriorate over the coming months taking the kiwi lower. The Bank of England will continue with their bond buying program over the coming weeks as a way to influence long term interest rates and get money flowing back into the economy, they seem to be the only central bank not overly worried about their currency appreciating. While most data isn’t receiving much attention at the moment with coronavirus being the main driver of currencies next week’s February UK GDP for February could offer interesting reading. We expect the Pound to strengthen further to 0.4720 (2.1200) next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4771 GBPNZD 2.0960
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4753- 0.4891 GBPNZD 2.0444- 2.1037
Choppy conditions in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair continue to make analysing price movement impossible in such uncertain times. The cross finished the week just off where it started around 0.4855 (2.0600) levels after travelling to 0.5012 (1.9950) earlier in the week. The Bank of England will continue with their bond buying program this week as a way to influence long term interest rates and get money flowing back into the economy. Jacinda Ardern said NZ would more than likely leave its borders closed until a vaccine becomes available and the population achieves widespread immunity. ANZ Business Confidence survey is today at 1.00pm NZT- this could put the kiwi under pressure.
Current Level: 0.4864 (2.0559)
Resistance: 0.4920 (2.100)
Support: 0.4760 (2.0320)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4825-0.5013 (1.9947-2.0729)
The English Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to knock around recent ranges with no significant wild shifts we have seen lately. If anything, the Pound has outperformed the kiwi coming off 0.5000 (2.000) to trade around 0.4890 (2.0450) Friday. It’s our view the pair looks to jump back on the bearish trendline seen earlier this year and retest the low levels over recent months like the daily low at 0.4830 (2.0700) .Covid-19 headlines weigh heavy on markets and particularly on risk products such as the kiwi, resistance around 0.5000 should hold for the meantime.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4881 GBPNZD 2.0487
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4815- 0.5012 GBPNZD 1.9951- 2.0765
Another volatile weekly open saw the British Pound (GBP) improve to 0.4810 (2.0800) but lose momentum against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retracing to 0.4970 (2.0130). Demand for the kiwi has improved over the last 10 days or so especially in light of the NZ Govt instigating anti-virus social and financial measures. The Bank of England has quickly delivered aggressive easing which in turn has depleted support for the Pound. The restart of GBP 200Billion of asset purchases will help dampen the risk of a deeper and prolonged recession in the UK. The pair doesn’t look to travel far from current ranges this week with chances of price back towards 0.4855 (2.0600) the likely outcome. Fresh headlines are saying Boris Johnson has just announced a lock down. People are to remain at home unless you need to go out for essential services or medical reasons. Gatherings of no more than two people with all shops selling non-essential goods will close immediately.
Current Level: 0.4962 (2.0153)
Resistance: 0.5005 (2.0730)
Support: 0.4820 (1.9980)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4763-0.5026 (1.9898-2.0996)
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sellers were out in force Thursday selling the kiwi down to 0.4760 (2.1000) against the British Pound (GBP) as risk appetite towards coronavirus went to a new level. Jacinda Ardern officially closed NZ borders to all non-residents and citizens last night, viewed not just as fantastic news for New Zealanders but the NZD price reversed quickly back to 0.5012 (1.9950), the Pound giving back all its earlier gains. However early Friday the Bank of England in an unscheduled emergency meeting cut their benchmark rate by 0.15% to 0.10% in a unanimous 9-0 vote. This sent the price falling again to 0.4930 (2.0280) where it sits at the time of writing. Downward pressures remain for the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4965 GBPNZD 2.0140
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4762- 0.5025 GBPNZD 1.9899- 2.0998
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marginally pushed back on the British Pound (GBP) last week closing around 0.4930 (2.0290) the first positive week since mid February. On the whole we are still seeing huge shifts on a whim as coronavirus headlines print. The RBNZ emergency meeting yesterday at 8am surprised markets when they took the cash rate lower 75 basis points from 1.0% to 0.25% as the government attempts to stimulate the economy heading into a coronavirus fuelled recession. The kiwi strengthened overnight to 0.4985 (2.0057) before relenting to pressures falling back to 0.4935 (2.02700). This week’s local data focus is on fourth quarter GDP but we sense that this could be overlooked to more pressing Covid-19 news. This level at 0.4950 (2.0200) represents better buying of GBP considering NZD should continue to weaken off.
Current Level:0.4940 (2.0242)
Resistance: 0.4985 (2.0680)
Support: 0.4835 (2.0060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4817-0.4987 (2.0054-2.0761)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading around the weekly open of 0.4870 (2.0540) against the English Pound (GBP) a mere miracle considering the swings in other pairs we have seen this week. It’s the only NZD cross apart from the AUD which has not weakened over the course of the week. The Bank of England boosted the GBP Wednesday when they cut rates from 0.75% to 0.25% in an unscheduled emergency meeting. In direct response to empower efforts to negate the effects of coronavirus. The committee voted unanimously in favour of easing policy which should boost household and business spending. Finance Minister Sunak announced a rare stimulus plan to combat the virus injecting 39B, the biggest tax and spending giveaway since 1992. Today could be another scary day of NZD weakness especially if the 1pm coronavirus meeting confirms further cases in NZ. Expect to see 0.4800 in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4889 GBPNZD 2.0454
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4657- 0.4921 GBPNZD 2.0320- 2.1471
After the flash crash yesterday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) returned to normal price action – albeit a little more volatile than normal to around 0.4850 (2.0620). Those that had orders in south of 0.4850 did very well as the price reached 0.4617 (2.1660) only momentarily yesterday around 2.00pm. Bank of England’s Bailey said more evidence was required before making a decision on the next policy shift. Monthly GDP prints tomorrow. Coronavirus will continue to drive risk sentiment in the pair for a while longer yet.
Current Level: 0.4844 (2.0644)
Resistance: 0.4920 (2.0880)
Support: 0.4790 (2.0320)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4617-0.4937 (2.0257-2.1657)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed higher against the British Pound (GBP) through midweek trading reaching a 10 day high of 0.4935 (1.0250). With coronavirus sentiment souring into Friday the GBP has regained losses back to 0.4865 (2.0545) as we predicted earlier in the week. Comments overnight from Carney was that the collective response to the virus will be powerful and timely with the BoE’s job to assist households and firms manage shock. Bank of England’s Bailey does not back an immediate cut to rates following other central bank leads, but the impact of coronavirus would be his top priority. These levels around mid 2016 lows represent fantastic times to sell GBP.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4875 GBPNZD 2.0512
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4844- 0.4936 GBPNZD 2.0257- 2.0640
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has suffered dramatically over recent weeks on the back of Coronavirus fears, but the UK Pound (GBP) hasn’t been immune and in recent days it too has seen real pressure as markets realise the Sterling won’t be a safe haven if the Virus outbreak triggered a global slump. The NZDGBP cross rate traded to a low of 0.4838 (2.0669) late last week, but with the Pound now playing a bit of catch up to weakness in the NZD, the pair has recovered to currently trade at 0.4905 (2.0387). Initial resistance comes in around 0.4920 (support around 2.0325) and we expect that to cap any near term strength. Further dips into the mid 0.4800’s are likely over the coming week as the market remains nervous and volatile.
Current Level: 0.4903 (2.0396)
Resistance: 0.4920 (2.0747)
Support: 0.4820 (2.0325)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4838-0.4918 (2.0333-2.0669)
The New Zealand Dollar took on board further losses midweek against the British Pound depreciating to a 0.4855 (2.0600) low driven by coronavirus risk sentiment. NZ Retail Sales for the fourth quarter 2019 wasn’t kiwi supportive with figures coming in softer at 0.5% from 0.9% expected sparking a selloff. The Bank of England announced it would go ahead with canning a corporate tax cut to 17% in the pending budget and said other tax spending incentives would also be delayed until after the coronavirus outbreak improves. This delay to budget spending commitments prompted profit taking in the GBP with sellers exiting positions and improving the price back to 0.4915 (2.0350) Friday. Looking ahead we have UK Manufacturing Monday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4893 GBPNZD 2.0437
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4852- 0.4920 GBPNZD 2.0329- 2.0610
The English Pound (GBP) has been well supported of late against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross reaching 0.4870 (2.0538) at the weekly close. Monday’s trading saw big shifts in risk related currencies with equities and Crude all dropping more than 4% on the day. But the NZD was buoyant recouping most of last week’s losses to 0.4912 (2.0355) as a fresh wave of pessimism of fears the UK could crash out of the EU without a trade deal later in the year. The pair is still trading the bearish trendline from the beginning of the year with a break needed through 0.4950 (2.0200) to confirm a momentum change higher. A slow week of significant data sees attention turn to ANZ Business Confidence Friday.
Current Level: 0.4907 (2.0379)
Support: 0.4870 (2.0280)
Last Weeks range: 0.4869-0.4956 (2.0176-2.0538)
UK data has surprised markets this week with the British Pound (GBP) edging higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 2.0400 (0.4900). Positive comments from Adrian Ore last week have been forgotten with price momentum mostly favouring the Pound. UK CPI for the 12 months to January 2020 came in at 1.8% up from the December reading of 1.4% and Retail Sales for the month of January rose 0.9% – expected 0.7%. UK Manufacturing is tonight and could also surprise to the upside. That being said we think price is more likely to make a bid for a fresh yearly high above 2.0440 (0.4890) continuing the 2020 bearish NZD theme.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4915 GBPNZD 2.0345
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4883- 0.4901 GBPNZD 2.0400- 2.0476
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds around 04950 (2.0200) Tuesday morning against the British Pound (GBP) as markets await Average Wage Earnings data tonight. The kiwi gave back its gains late last week post RBNZ announcement where Governor Ore left the cash rate at 1.0% saying there would be no further cuts in 2020. PM Ardern expressed her concerns about coronavirus impact on the NZ economy weakening the currency a tad. UK Retail Sales and Manufacturing data print later in the week. On the chart we see price right above the 20 day moving average suggesting we could see a bounce towards 0.4920 (2.0340).
Current Level: 0.4957 (2.0173)
Resistance: 0.5000 (2.0425)
Support: 0.4895 (2.000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4926-0.5000 (2.000-2.0299)
It’s been a game of two halves this week in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair, with price movement reaching 0.5000 (2.0000) but falling back to 0.4930 (2.0290) as the kiwi gave back gains. The RBNZ cash rate remains at 1.0% with Ore in his statement confirming there would be no further cuts this year. With employment at maximum sustainable levels and inflation close to its midpoint 2.0% target economic growth should accelerate over the second half of 2020. Coronavirus still has the propensity to cause medium term economic pain. If risk averse conditions persist we could see the daily low of 0.4900 (2.0423) in 2020 broken. Next week’s UK Retail Sales will be the main focus publishing on Thursday
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4931 GBPNZD 2.0279
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4931- 0.5000 GBPNZD 2.000- 2.0278
Coronavirus fears continue to impact risk sentiment in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair with the Pound making a fresh break to 0.4940 (2.0250). NZ data of late has been NZD supportive with the recent unemployment rate dropping to 4.0% from 4.2% but reflective of risk bias the kiwi remains under the pump. This week’s UK GDP and NZ Cash Rate holds focus with the RBNZ expected to leave the rate unchanged at 1.0% with further confirmation on how the coronavirus will impact outlook. On the chart the Pound looks to retest the daily low at 0.4895 (2.0430), certainly if the RBNZ is dovish we wouldn’t rule it out.
Current Level: 0.4938 (2.0250)
Resistance: 0.5000 (2.0430)
Support: 0.4895 (2.000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4938-0.5001 (1.9995-2.0251)
The British Pound ran out of steam at 0.4885 (2.0470) on Monday’s open against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversing its gains into Tuesday to 0.4970 (2.0120) as Boris Johnson Brexit headlines stall further GBP momentum. The Pound has been the biggest mover after Boris Johnson said there was “no need ” for the UK to follow EU trade rules, saying he would be prepared to walk away from talks with the EU if he didn’t get a free trade agreement. “We have made our choice- we want a free trade agreement, similar to Canada’s but in the unlikely event we do not succeed, then our trade will have to be based on our existing Withdrawal Agreement with the EU”. NZ quarterly employment to December 2019 releases Wednesday with a small increase to the number of people employed predicted. Coronavirus still has plenty of “risk off” feel to it- we expect the kiwi to stay well under 0.5000 (2.000) for some time.
Current Level: 0.4967 (2.013)
Resistance: 0.5000 (2.530)
Support: 0.4870 (2.000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4895-0.5034 (1.9864-2.0431)
As risk related currencies continue to fall as a by-product of the coronavirus outbreak the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) plummeted lower through 0.5000 (2.000) against the British Pound on it’s way to a fresh low of 0.4950 (2.0200) Friday morning. The Pound rallied on the back of the Bank of England deciding to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75% Friday morning with the central bank voting 7-2. The comment was made “we continue to see value in sterling and expect the GBP/USD to rise further this year”. The BoE referenced the need for higher rates if growth continues to rise. Policy is set at 2.0% inflation target to help sustain growth and employment. With signs already indicating growth should improve in 2020 we think the central bank made the correct decision to leave the rate unchanged. 0.4920 (2.0330) is the next area of support for the NZD
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4952 GBPNZD 2.0194
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4950- 0.5040 GBPNZD 1.9839- 2.0202
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen to 0.5012 (1.9950) against the British Pound (GBP) Tuesday. Markets opened the week on the news that the coronavirus had spread gaping lower on concerns. With the risk off tone holding the kiwi back from gathering any momentum this week we think the GBP should extend the decline from late 2019’s 0.5150 (1.9415) with a possible retest of 0.5000 this week. Bank of England’s official Cash Rate is announced Friday with expectations of voting to be 3-6 in favour of a 0.75% remain.
Current Level:0.5041 (1.9837)
Resistance: 0.5050 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5007-0.5088 (1.9654-1.9971)
The English Pound rallied to 1.9950 (0.5012) from 1.9620 (0.5100) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after UK employment data surprised markets. The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.8% but average earnings edged up 3.2% from 3.1%, but it was the employment participation rate a record high of 76.3% which turned heads. The Brexit Bill passed government approval and now awaits royal approval also boosted the Pound. NZ CPI for the fourth quarter 2019 published at 0.5% from the anticipated 0.4% due to rising prices in air fares and rental costs. The kiwi spiked to 0.5045 (1.9820)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5043 GBPNZD 1.9829
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5013- 0.5100 GBPNZD 1.9604- 1.9947
Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) Tuesday hovers around the 0.5080 (1.9670) area after a slow start to the week. UK Retail Sales Friday came in much lower than predicted at -0.6% highlighting concerns for the Pound to end the week. With just 10 days to go before the Britain leaves the EU we may see demand for the GBP on dips. Looking ahead we have NZ CPI Friday along with UK Manufacturing. We expect price to clear the yearly low of 0.5040 (1.9840) soonish.
Current Level: 0.5079 (1.9689)
Resistance: 0.5115 (1.9820)
Support: 0.5045 (1.9550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5061-0.5117 (1.9544-1.9760)
Early in the week the British Pound (GBP) drifted lower to 1.9540 (0.5120) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) but has recovered to 1.9720 (0.5070) Friday morning. UK Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% below expectations of 1.5% – this is down from the December 2019 1.5% with the largest contributions coming from housing, water gas and electricity with the lowest contributions coming from services and clothing. This will heighten expectations of a rate cut possibly by mid-year. Looking ahead tonight we have UK Retail Sales.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5072 GBPNZD 1.9716
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5062- 0.5117 GBPNZD 1.9540- 1.9752
The English Pound (GBP) has started the week off the weakest performer. Against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) back to 1.9580 (0.5107) into Tuesday. After Boris Johnson’s win mid December the Pound has continued to weaken into 2020 as the 31 January deadline looms. After 31 January the EU and UK enters into a 11-month transition period to reach a comprehensive trade deal before 31 December 2020. Downbeat comments from Governor Carney last week along with worry associated with ongoing trade talks continue to keep the Pound on the backfoot. Price movement looks to target late December’s 0.5150 (1.9400) and should get there if today’s NZIER Business Confidence shines. Later in the week we look towards UK CPI y/y expected to print at 1.5%
Current Level: 0.5099 (1.9611)
Resistance: 0.5115 (1.9670)
Support: 0.5085 (1.9550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5041-0.5116 (1.9545-1.9838)
Stats from last year’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.5303 (1.8857), close 0.5080 (1.9682), low 0.4985 (2.0057), high 0.5473 (1.8270). After a big win for Boris Johnson mid-December the Pound has continued to weaken into 2020 as the 31 January deadline looms. After 31 January the EU and UK enters into an 11-month transition period to reach a comprehensive trade deal. EU’s Ursula von der Leyen warned it would be impossible to reach such a deal and priorities should be set. The real threat of a no trade deal scenario at the end of 2020 will be a continuing concern for financial markets this year. With no data out this week price is mostly dictated by risk mood influenced by conflicts raging between Iran and the US over the assassination over Qassem Soleimani.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5075 GBPNZD 1.9704
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5040- 0.5101 GBPNZD 1.9602- 1.9838
This week has seen a solid bounce back for the Pound (GBP) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as the election result (the optimum for financial markets) was digested by markets. The NZD dropping to the lowest level in 2 months to 0.4898 (2.0416) but has tracked back up to 0.5018 (1.9928) overnight on a UK report that PM Boris Johnson intended to legislate against the possibility of extending the Brexit transition period beyond 2020 indicating that a “hard Brexit” may be back on the table. This news saw risk sentiment reduce with corresponding drops across all commodity currencies.
Overall support for the GBP should be maintained on this cross as GBP data continues to improve and a sustained period of political certainty will also underpin Sterling. We look for further NZD weakness on this cross with moves back to the 0.4875-0.4900 look likely over the next few weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5004 GBPNZD 1.9984
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4915- 0.5017 GBPNZD 1.9929- 2.0345
Very choppy trading on this cross as with all other currencies against the Sterling ahead of any concrete UK election results. UK polls close at 11:00am NZ time with first results likely to come in from midday NZ time… any sniff of a Labour of Labour victory will see the GBP sold aggressively which could see this cross at first resistance around 0.5180 then moving onto 0.5500 and above. Conversely a Conservative victory would see a move on this cross back into the 0.4860 region …any “hung” Parliament scenario would see continued volatility until the eventual makeup of the government became more clear.
Hard to call this cross, or for that matter any cross with the GBP as future moves are directly correlated to Thursday’s election result.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5137 GBPNZD 1.9466
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4901- 0.5040 GBPNZD 1.9840- 2.0403
Hard to call this cross, or for that matter any cross with the GBP as future moves are directly correlated to Thursday’s election result. The GBP has been choppy against the NZD with a range over the last 10 days between 0.4945 to the 0.5102 level …Now around 0.4985 a clear Conservative victory would see a sharp rally in the GBP with this cross back towards the 0.4875-0.4920 level, but any result that seeing a hung Parliament would place the GBP under more selling pressure. A clear Labour win would likely to see a huge outflow of investor funds…the current 0.4975-0.5030 level should hold until the election results are known, watch-out for fireworks…!!
Current Level: 0.4980 (2.0080)
Resistance: 0.5007 (2.0760)
Support: 0.4820 (1.9970)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4960-0.5035 (1.9865-2.0155)
The British Pound (GBP) lost ground to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) early in the week to 0.5030 (1.9870) as risk markets improved. As we suspected the kiwi has been unable to sustain levels higher than 0.5000 (2.0000) dropping back to 0.4960 (2.0150) Friday as optimism around Brexit and polls suggest Boris Johnson’s Conservative party are well out in front of Labour. The Pound now targets the mid October level of 0.4865 (2.0550) leading into next Thursday’s 12 December election.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4970 GBPNZD 2.0120
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4961- 0.5036 GBPNZD 1.9857- 2.0156
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke through 0.5000 (2.000) Monday against the British Pound on its way to post 0.5030 (1.9880) as risk sentiment improved. It took eight weeks for the kiwi to register a daily close above 0.5000 – whether it can sustain these levels is another thing. Boris Johnson isn’t getting things all his way with recent polls suggesting the Labour party has pegged back the recent widening between themselves and the Conservative party. Also of note was improving Chinese Manufacturing data boosted risk sentiment. It’s a quiet week for the pair data wise with just governor Orr speaking Thursday. If polls are Conservative supportive leading up to 12 December we may see strength return in the Pound. Buying above 0.5000 (2.000) represents good buying.
Current Level: 0.5026 (1.9896)
Resistance: 0.5035 (2.000)
Support: 0.5000 (1.9860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4949-0.5036 (1.9857-2.0207)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed into the 0.50’s Wednesday against the British Pound after positive NZ data rallied the kiwi to 0.5010 (1.9960). The excitement of a considerable breakout wouldn’t last though with recent polls in the UK General Election showing the gap has widened again for the Conservative party after they started the campaign with an 11 point lead. The Pound bounced back travelling to 0.4950 (2.0200). The NZ Stability Report and business confidence as well as Retail Sales figures showed improvement earlier but with Trump supporting the HK protesters against the will of the Chinese, we expect to see some fallout eventuate dampening the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4971 GBPNZD 2.0116
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4948- 0.5010 GBPNZD 1.9959- 2.0207
For the third time in as many weeks the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has failed to crack the 0.5000 (2.000) zone against the British Pound (GBP). Bouncing hard off early Monday’s rise to 0.5000 (2.000) the kiwi lost ground on GBP support as polls suggest the outcome of a Conservatives win is high. This morning’s NZ Retail Sales figures printed well tracking the kiwi higher to 0.4975 (2.0100). With no UK data on the calendar this week the main drivers will be election headlines and incoming ANZ Business Confidence Thursday. We suggest price could stay within recent ranges for a while longer.
Current Level: 0.4969 (2.0125)
Resistance: 0.5000 (2.0330)
Support: 0.4918 (2.000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4927-0.5001 (1.9994-2.0295)
For the fifth week straight the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has stayed within a range of 0.4920 (2.0320) and 0.5000 (2.000) a huge change from the volatility we have seen over the last several months. In the first leaders debate Thursday between BJ and Corbyn, Johnson promised to take the UK out of the EU by January 31st by securing a new trade deal by the end of 2020. We have heard it all before. NZ will dominate the economic docket next week with Retail Sales and ANZ Business Confidence. I dare say price could easily stay within recent ranges through to 12 December general elections.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4955 GBPNZD 2.0181
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4927- 0.4981 GBPNZD 2.0076- 2.0294
The British Pound (GBP) ended the week with worse than expected Retail Sales figures taking price off 0.4940 (2.0250) to 0.4965 (2.0140) to close the week. News that the Conservative party (Tories) were leading the polls based on Boris Johnson suggesting every election candidate has pledged to back his Brexit deal boosted the GBP to 0.4930 (2.0270) into Tuesday trading sessions. The pair is still trading in a reasonably tight five week range between 0.5000 (2.000) and 0.4920 (2.0320) Looking ahead on the calendar this week the only notable standout is Wednesday’s NZ Credit Card spending and GDT (Global Dairy Trade) auction. We favour movement back towards 0.4960 (2.0150) this week based on recent trend.
Current Level: 0.4938 (2.0251)
Resistance: 0.4960 (2.0320)
Support: 0.4920 (2.0170)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4905-0.5000 (1.9999-2.0389)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost early week gains to the English Pound (GBP) after retracing lower from 0.4920 (2.0330) prior to the RBNZ announcement. Adrian Orr shocked markets when he left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.0% Wednesday after analysts were mostly expecting a cut. This took the kiwi higher in quick fire to 0.4998 (2.001). UK CPI y/y and Retail Sales both printed lower than expected 1.5% against 1.6% and -0.1% versus 0.2% but failed to have an impact on the GBP as price drifted lower to 0.4940 (2.0240) into Friday. The UK are still consumed by Brexit headlines around the 12 December election with news that Farage had said he wouldn’t fight the ruling Conservatives thus increasing the chances of the Tories winning the election and getting Brexit across the line. Stuck in a range lately the pair shouldn’t go outside 0.4920 (2.0330) for now.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4950 GBPNZD 2.0202
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4919- 0.5000 GBPNZD 2.0000- 2.0328
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week well against the British Pound (GBP) trading to 0.4975 (2.0095) late Monday on poor UK data. Prelim GDP followed by Manufacturing both printed poor putting the Pound under pressure. Also of note was Moody’s rating agency credit downgrading outlook, when they said they are likely to change it from Aa2 from stable to negative. NZ quarterly inflation expectations print today, then focus turns to the RBNZ cash rate statement tomorrow where a rate cut to 0.75% is expected. Later in the week we have UK yearly CPI and Retail Sales. Although we should get a fair amount of volatility this week the range band over the last three weeks should hold between 0.4925 (2.0300) and 0.5000 (2.000)
Current Level:0.4948 (2.0210)
Resistance: 0.4995 (2.0300)
Support: 0.4930 (2.002)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4935-0.4990 (2.004-2.0262)
The New Zealand (NZD) has underperformed against the British Pound (GBP) falling to 0.4940 (2.0240) through Thursday. NZ jobs data sent the kiwi packing after the unemployment rate jumped unexpectedly to 4.20% from 3.9%. This raised questions over next week’s RBNZ announcement with predictions now almost certain a 25 basis points will cut will happen taking the rate to 0.75%. The Pound lost a bit of ground overnight trading back to 0.4980 (2.0080) as the Bank of England kept their cash rate at 0.75% in a 7-2 committee vote. They set the inflation target at 2.0% which should assist to support employment and growth. The cross could perform erratic leading into the 12 Dec UK election, next week’s cut to the RBNZ could send prices back below support at 0.4925 (2.0300).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4970 GBPNZD 2.0120
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4940- 0.5000 GBPNZD 2.0000- 2.0243
Pivotal resistance at 0.5000 (2.000) held overnight for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as it edged higher off the weekly open of 0.4975 (2.010). NZ strength was off the back of risk on sentiment early Monday helped by rises in equity prices and positive US trade sentiment. Early Tuesday prices reversed taking the cross back to 0.4970 (2.0130) as markets now focus on the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate release Friday morning NZT. In the meantime, we have NZ employment figure and the unemployment rate announcement Wednesday which is expected to show a rise to 4.1% to the end of September. On the Brexit front- we are in a wait and see zone until the 12 December election results.
Current Level: 0.4965 (2.0140)
Resistance: 0.5000 (2.0370)
Support: 0.4910 (2.000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4921-0.5000 (2.000-2.0321)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the second week running has predominantly traded sideways against the British Pound (GBP) not moving far from 0.4950 (2.020). This week in Brexit land the UK were supposed to exit the EU on the deadline of 31st October, but this never happened. Instead an extension has been granted by the EU until 31 January 2020. Before then we will see a UK general election on December 12. So to summarise- the people of the UK vote to leave the European Union nearly three and a half years ago and it still hasn’t happened. Gosh, what a disaster with Brexit still remaining extremely divided. The ANZ Business Confidence index came in better than expected at -42.4 pushing the kiwi to 0.4975 (2.0100) but with most surveyed saying they expected economic conditions to worsen over the next 12 months the kiwi failed to extend topside moves. Next week’s NZ employment release and the Bank of England official cash rate announcement are now the focus. We expect the price to remain around current levels through to next Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4951 GBPNZD 2.0198
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4920- 0.4974 GBPNZD 2.0102- 2.0322
With an extension agreed by the EU and UK playmakers the British Pound (GBP) has perked up during this morning’s European trading session against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.4925 (2.0306) from the weekly open of 0.4960 (2.0150). All eyes this week will be on the UK parliament vote to determine the motion of an election which is expected to be around the 12th of December. On the data front we have ANZ Business Confidence Thursday, until then Brexit will dominate direction- we expect this week to run smooth for the English and the Pound to outperform. That being said a retest of the prior low at 0.4865 (2.0550) could be tested.
Current Level: 0.4946 (2.0218)
Resistance: 0.4990 (2.0550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4925-0.4989 (2.0045-2.0306)
Moves in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) this week have been limited to a tight range as Brexit headlines continue to dominate direction. Coming off the weekly open of 0.4930 (2.0280) price has ticked higher into Friday to 0.4965 (2.0140). Johnson has said he will give MP’s longer time to consider his Brexit deal if they agree with his proposal of a 12 December election. Johnson would prefer a shortened postponement to around the 30th of November. Corbyn reacted by saying “take no-deal off the table and we will absolutely support a general election”. France’s Macron is opposed to a lengthy extension out to 31 January and would prefer a short turn around in order to keep the pressure on a deal being done, wise man – he said what everyone is thinking. Giving them more time only stokes MP egos – fairly sure the British are all tired of uncertainty in the UK economy. Resistance is now at 0.5000 (2.000) with price expected to retest the prior low of 0.4870 (2.0540) through to the end of the month. A quiet week of data for the cross next week with only ANZ Business Confidence figures.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4963 GBPNZD 2.0149
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4916- 0.4989 GBPNZD 2.0041- 2.0340
The British Pound (GBP) consolidated last week’s massive moves Monday around the 0.4935 (2.0260) area against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as the market awaits further Brexit headlines. Gapping a fair distance from the Friday close was on the cards but this never happened after the UK parliament over the weekend passed the Letwin agreement by a vote of 322-306. The agreement has given parliament more time to consider the deal Johnson has presented. At this stage in the game there has been no actual response from the EU to Johnsons letters with no certainty that the EU will grant a Brexit extension. Although we have seen big moves over the past couple of weeks in this pair and current price reflects a “priced in” positive Brexit result, we still believe we could see price travel to new lows around 0.4715 (2.1200) over the coming weeks.
Current Level: 0.4944 (2.0226)
Resistance: 0.4960 (2.0470)
Support: 0.4885 (2.0170)
Last Weeks Range: (0.4865-0.5015 (1.994-2.0556)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) consolidated around the 0.4900 (2.0450) area against the British Pound before regaining some of the earlier week losses to trade back at 0.4930 (2.0270) Friday. It appears the chances of a Brexit deal are improving by the hour with Johnson and the European Union striking a revised deal. The deal still must be agreed formally by the EU and then ratified by European and most importantly the UK Parliament. NZ quarterly CPI printed slightly up on expectations yesterday at 0.7% giving buyers of kiwi a reason to buy back NZD. From current levels we are unlikely to see further downside to price past 0.4900 (2.0400) until Brexit has been formally agreed. We note that most of the recovery in the Pound from the 2016 referendum we have seen already this week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4942 GBPNZD 2.0235
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4864- 0.5025 GBPNZD 1.9898- 2.0556
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softened Monday against the British Pound (GBP) posting a new low of 0.4970 (2.012) as efforts to reach a Brexit deal continued in Brussels. Lead negotiator Barnier got the nod to discuss preliminary drafts of the revised deal. Both sides are keen to get a deal agreed before the EU summit on Thursday, if this happens the government will introduce a withdrawal agreement bill which will need to be voted in. The Pound run higher was met with resistance with the pair dropping back towards 0.5010 (1.9960) into Tuesday. It’s too early to say if prices around these current levels are warranted with still a lot of Brexit negotiations to come before anything is set in stone. Certainly, the pair will remain volatile for a while yet.
Current Level: 0.4994 (2.0008)
Resistance: 0.5020 (2.0120)
Support: 0.4970 (1.9890)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4970-0.5179 (1.9309-2.012)
More promising news around Brexit overnight as UK PM Johnson met with Ireland PM Varadkar , who commented that there was now a possibility of a deal around the Irish backstop …This saw the British Pound (GBP) rally against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) around 1.6%, also helped by revised UK GDP data which indicated that the UK was likely to dodge a recession in the third quarter.
The NZD/GBP cross was sold lower from a high yesterday of 0.5180 to 0.5070 , it is now back around the 0.5081 level …Although a good move by the GBP we remain unconvinced by the current strength as there have been many false starts during the Brexit train wreck and any deal will have to be approved by both the UK Parliament and all the EU member states…Current NZD/GBP levels around the 0.5075/85 should hold into the start of next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5080 GBPNZD 1.9685
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5069- 0.5178 GBPNZD 1.9312- 1.9724
The British Pound firmed Thursday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5100 (1.9600) as Boris Johnson outlined his plan B for Brexit. Most of the week the pair has been sideways pivoting around 0.5089 (1.9650) as markets await firm results. A revised Brexit agreement would need to commit to avoiding customs checks and infrastructure at the borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland as this is something Ireland won’t agree to. UK Services sector data disappointed overnight with a contraction in September of 49.5 after 50.3 was predicted signalling only the fifth time in over a decade the number has been below 50.0. The alarming thing for the UK is that they also have manufacturing in contraction, with Brexit all ahead this doesn’t paint a healthy economic picture. Next week’s attention lies with UK monthly GDP and NZ Manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5109 GBPNZD 1.9573
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5058- 0.5201 GBPNZD 1.9225- 1.9770
The British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross turned back in favour of the GBP just after the weekly open to 0.5100 (1.9630) after worse than expected ANZ Business Confidence spooked kiwi buyers. Confidence among businesses surveyed suggested a general pessimism heading into 2020 with the lowest reading since the 2008 financial crisis of -53.5. UK GDP came in bang on expectations of -0.2% last night and had no real effect on the GBP. Boris Johnson has reportedly requested the European Union to rule out a Brexit extension past the 31 October deadline. If granted this would put huge pressure on UK parliament getting something negotiated to avoid a “no deal” exit. He has until the 18th of October to request an extension if things don’t work out. We see higher chances things won’t go to plan and the NZDGBP back over 0.5200 (1.9230) over the coming few weeks.
Current Level: 0.5093 (1.9634)
Resistance: 0.5130 (1.9960)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5045-0.5128 (1.95-1.9823)
The British Pound continued lower over the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5110 (1.9560). Boris Johnson has been given word he must submit written proposals to the EU within the next few days to fix his current plan for the Irish border. Barnier said to media they were ready to work on any new legal and operational proposals on Brexit from Britain. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. The result was priced into expectations after the RBNZ surprised markets at their & August outing by cutting 50 points. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. The NZDGBP is still in a bearish channel extending from the 0.5450 (1.8350) high and could still retest 0.5000 (2.000) soon.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5103 GBPNZD 1.9596
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5020- 0.5124 GBPNZD 1.9515- 1.9918
The British Pound (GBP) slipped lower Monday to 0.5065 (1.9740) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with improvements in risk related products. Friday’s low of 0.5000 (2.000) showed the pair was not ready to go lower through solid support of 0.5000 just yet as we saw a fresh round of GBP weakness. Johnson is set to meet with EU officials this week, the hot topic will be the Irish Backstop, but he still remains defiant over the idea of extending the deadline. The kiwi had its strongest one day rally in over three weeks as it tries to recover recent losses heading into tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement.
Current Level: 0.5058 (1.9770)
Support: 0.5010 (1.9600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5000-0.5110 (1.9670-2.0001
The British Pound (GBP) has risen sharply against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week to reach a fresh high of 1.9900 (0.5025) Friday morning. The big week of economic releases hasn’t really supported the Pound, it’s been the reduced risk associated with a no del Brexit which has brought buyers back into the Pound. The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged overnight in a 0-9 unanimous vote by central bank members. Massive uncertainty still remains for the world’s 5th largest economy heading into the 31 October Brexit deadline. Sterling was broadly unchanged on the news. The Bank of England however made it clear that another delay to Brexit could lead to much further economic weakness. Boris Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit on 31st October “come what may”. The next big support level in the NZDGBP cross is 0.5000 which we are fast approaching and have not seen since early May this year. Certainly, if Brexit continues to provide positive headlines the NZD will continue to drift lower.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5016 GBPNZD 1.9936
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5018- 0.5141 GBPNZD 1.9450- 1.9925
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be pushed around by the British Pound (GBP) and Brexit headlines, the Pound trading higher Friday into Tuesday off the back of less Brexit uncertainty to 0.5110 (1.9580). Boris is confident he will be able to get a deal across the line prior to the 31st October deadline with recent moved by parliament to block a no deal Brexit. EU lawmakers will vote to change the Irish backstop so it only applies to Northern Island looks to be one of the possible breakthroughs in the negotiating process. If indeed a deal can be struck prior to the deadline one of which can be voted in as law the GBP will certainly massively benefit the Pound. It’s a busy week of data for the pair starting with UK CPI y/y tomorrow with the main attention with the Bank of England cash rate announcement and policy announcement Thursday night. No change is expected from the 0.75%. I’m picking the cross will be trading in the 50’s at week’s end.
Current Level: 0.5103 (1.9596)
Resistance: 0.5170 (1.9875)
Support: 0.5030 (1.9350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5097-0.5310 (1.8832-1.9618)
The British Pound (GBP) picked up support during Thursday’s trading sessions against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing to 0.5190 (1.9260). New headlines are suggesting that Boris Johnson misled the Queen and voters. Scottish appeal judges have rules that he unlawfully prorogued parliament to allow any proper time to go over the current Brexit strategy. The Speaker of the House John Bercow said he must now obey the law and request a Brexit extension. Michael Barnier the top EU negotiator said yesterday there were no credible reasons why they would reopen formal negotiations over the Irish Backstop and Boris Johnson’s officials were yet to see any decent Brexit plan on which the UK and EU could build on. Given the chances of a no deal Brexit looks reasonably safe the chances are high of a possible referendum and or general election. Once referendum or general elections are announced this will see the Pound bullish. The majority who voted “leave” would vote stay which would be extremely good for the Pound.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5192 GBPNZD 1.9260
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5181- 0.5248 GBPNZD 1.9052- 1.9299
UK GDP for the month of July published higher than anticipated at 0.3% from the 0.1% predicted by markets boosting the British Pound (GBP) into Tuesday to 0.5195 (1.9250) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The UK Index of Production also rose by 0.1% from June 2019 to July with manufacturing chipping in the biggest contribution of 0.3%. From here on with no further significant data to publish out of the UK focus will lie with Brexit developments. The chances of a brexit taking place is now around 55% and the chance of a no deal brexit has dropped to 20% with no Brexit at all at 25%. Lawmakers are now debating whether Boris Johnson will indeed follow a new law blocking a no deal Brexit. Although bumpy the GBP has rallied in the month of August, we think this could continue this week.
Current Level: 0.5209 (1.9175)
Resistance: 0.5240 (1.9460)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5163-0.5264 (1.8997-1.9367)
The British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross traded almost entirely off the back off Brexit headlines this week falling early to 0.5260 (1.9015) and back towards the weekly open of 0.5170 (1.9340). On the whole the Pound has been feeling confident after this week’s voting saw hopes of an early election canned as well as a disorderly no deal Brexit. Boris will need to comply with the voting result that will see him needing to ask the EU for a three month extension. He said earlier today he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than to ask for an extension. Looking ahead focus on the data front lies with the Non-Farm Payroll release tomorrow. With price verging on retesting last week’s low of 0.5150 (1.9412) we suggest with Brexit calming this will be reached.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5171 GBPNZD 1.9338
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5163- 0.5265 GBPNZD 1.8990- 1.9367
As we expected strong support around the 0.5150 (1.9400) mark held Friday in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair closing the week at 0.5190 (1.9270). The British parliament returns today signalling we are more than likely to see further volatility in the Pound relating to Brexit developments. Johnson said this morning he would table a motion to hold a general election if MP’s opposed a no-deal Brexit. Tory and Labour are collaborating to bring in a bill designed to stop the UK leaving on the 31st October with no agreement. This week’s calendar is light for the pair with just Inflation Report Hearings Thursday. The GBP has traded down to 0.5215 (1.9180) Tuesday morning on the back of a pessimistic few days ahead, the NZD may retest the earlier level of 0.5265 (1.9000) this week.
Current Level:0.5218 (1.9164)
Resistance: 0.5275 (1.9415)
Support: 0.5150 (1.8950)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5152-0.5241 (1.9079-1.9411)
Closing in on another week of Pound shifts, the bearish channel which started six weeks ago in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross should finish in tact with prices lower off the weekly open to 0.5230 (1.9120) continuing last week’s open slide from 0.5290 (1.8900) levels. Downside in the kiwi should be met with strong support around 0.5155 (1.9400) but next week’s Brexit and risk sentiment will dictate with a slow week on the calendar. Just UK Manufacturing and Services PMI to print.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5166 GBPNZD 1.9357
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5151- 0.5237 GBPNZD 1.9092- 1.9411
The bearish channel which started five weeks ago in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross enters its 6th week with prices lower off the weekly open to 0.5230 (1.9120) continuing last week’s open slide from 0.5290 (1.8900). We see a nice head and shoulders pattern developing on the weekly chart suggesting price may retest 0.5035 (1.9860) in the coming days. We expect movement to continue making wild swings on headlines as the deadline of 31 October draws closer. This week is a slow week on the calendar with a UK bank holiday Monday creating thin volumes and only ANZ Business confidence to excite Thursday. Current levels around 0.5230 (1.9120) pose good selling of GBP
Current Level: 0.5223 (1.9143)
Resistance: 0.5250 (1.9400)
Support: 0.5155 (1.9040)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5171-0.5311 (1.8829-1.9339)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) saw this pair continue to grind lower over the course of this week. Overnight the pair fell even further in a sharp move after comments from Germany’s Angela Merkel seemed to leave the door open for some further negotiation of the key Irish back stop issue, which is the biggest stumbling block in terms of the current Brexit agreement. The Pound Sterling surged on the news driving the NZDGBP cross rate to its lowest level since June at 0.5192 (1.9260). We can expect the GBP to continue to swing around in increasingly violent moves on any Brexit headlines over the coming weeks. With only a little over two months before the Oct 31st deadline, time is running out for PM Johnson to avert a hard Brexit, which would be a near term disaster for the country and the currency.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5198 GBPNZD 1.9240
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5192 – 0.5333 GBPNZD 1.8752 – 1.9262
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Tuesday trades marginally higher than the weekly open at 0.5280 (1.8935) against the British Pound (GBP) carrying on last week’s bearish theme. The cross generally has consolidated as punters look towards the end of the week’s Jackson Hole symposium and NZ Retail Sales. Despite market uncertainty associated with Brexit the GBP has recently welcomed upbeat data with CPI y/y and positive quarterly Retail Sales which may hold the Pound in good form heading towards the Brexit deadline of 31 October. Boris Johnson has written to the EU council’s Tusk to outline his distaste to the Irish border plan. Jeremy Corbyn is staunchly opposed to a “no deal” Brexit and is doing everything he can to stop it from becoming a reality. While we are seeing a supported GBP we could see the price reach 0.5240 (1.9080) pre week’s end.
Current Level:0.5283 (1.8928)
Resistance: 0.5340 (1.9020)
Support: 0.5255 (1.8720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5276-0.5366 (1.8636-1.8952)
It’s been a relatively quiet week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) with price not moving far from the open of 0.5370 (1.8620) to 0.5330 (1.8770) Friday. All three data releases on the calendar have been positive for the Pound – CPI, Producer Price Index and Retail Sales supporting the Pound. The bearish trend from 0.5475 (1.8270) is still intact, expect further downside momentum to continue to 0.5250 (1.9050) in the short term. In Brexit news Corbyn plans to call a no confidence vote in the hope of defeating a “no deal” outcome. If he wins this will delay the 31 October exit from the EU when he will call for a snap election and campaign for another referendum.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5319 GBPNZD 1.8800
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5295- 0.5380 GBPNZD 1.8585- 1.8883
August 13th 2019, 2:00pm
The English Pound started the week on the front foot against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.5340 (1.8730). UK Manufacturing figures came in at -0.2% after -0.1% was expected along with GDP m/m also printing below market expectations of 0.1% flat at 0.0%. This is the first time we have seen a contraction in the UK economy since 2012. These figures pushing the GBP lower to around the 0.5375 (1.8600) area. Momentum for the Pound looks capped at 0.5290 (1.8900) with further downside expected as Brexit develops. More NZD/GBP updates.
Current Level: 0.5339 (1.8730)
Resistance: 0.5380 (1.9050)
Support: 0.5250 (1.8580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5247-0.5421 (1.8446-1.9060)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued declines from last week’s high of 0.5465 (1.8300) against the British Pound (GBP) pushing lower to 0.5250 (1.9060) Wednesday after the RBNZ cash rate decision. The RBNZ surprised markets by dropping the official cash rate to 1.0% from 1.5% in a move where markets were expecting only a 25 basis point shift lower to 1.25%. It was an unbelievable decision given the only time the RBNZ has cut rates by 50 points in the past was after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and post 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. It’s unlikely we will see further cuts now for a while, possibly November to take it down to 0.75%. The NZD has clawed back some losses to 0.5340 (1.8730) Friday morning with UK GDP m/m and Manufacturing Production to print in the morning.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5341 GBPNZD 1.8723
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5246- 0.5430 GBPNZD 1.8415- 1.9059
Based on a risk averse market conditions the British Pound continued to rise against the New Zealand dollar through Monday to a fresh three week high of 0.5335 (1.8750). UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) printed above market expectations at 51.4 versus 50.4 the index improving for the UK services sector supporting the fastest business growth since October 2018 contributing 80% of GDP to the UK economy. Stockpiling of essentials and companied pre ordering in light of a Brexit was a factor in the pick up. The cross still holds bullish momentum since early May’s 0.5010 (1.9970) with a possible retest of 0.5465 (1.8300) levels over the coming days. NZ Unemployment figures released this morning with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.9% from the predicted 4.2%, an 11 year low, pushing buyers into the kiwi with price sharply trading to 0.5430 (1.8420)
Current Level: 0.5401 (1.8515)
Resistance: 0.5450 (1.8730)
Support: 0.5340 (1.8360)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5333-0.5471 (1.8278-1.8752)
After the British Pound (GBP) traded to a fresh yearly low midweek of 0.5473 (1.8270) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it has bounded positively back to 0.5390 (1.8550) Friday. The Bank of England left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% as the policy committee voted unanimously. Even with upwardly forecasted inflation and growth forecasts the BoE made it clear they would not be shifting rates anytime soon. If anything was to come out of the monetary statement it was perhaps slightly hawkish. They said they could in fact raise rates on the event of a no Brexit outcome saying “the monetary response to Brexit whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in the other direction”. This view comes directly opposing recent analysts predictions. The Bank of England have also set their inflation target at a reasonable 2.0% to help sustain growth and employment. The Pound still has a long road to recovery as technically the bearish channel looks fairly robust supporting further momentum to the downside with resistance now seen at 0.5555 (1.8000)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5398 GBPNZD 1.8525
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5387- 0.5445 GBPNZD 1.8365- 1.8562
The British Pound (GBP) was smashed overnight to a fresh low of 0.5423 (1.8440). Boris Johnson was in the thick of it again suggesting there was no way he was going to meet with EU officials unless they removed the Irish Backstop from the Brexit agreement. This has gone down like a warm fish milkshake, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) by default appreciating 80 points since the weekly open. ANZ Business Confidence is the only highlight on the NZ calendar this week but the GBP has a heavy week of data including the Bank of England cash rate announcement and monetary policy Thursday. We see heavy resistance at 0.5445 (1.8365), if price breaks here we could see 0.5525 (1.8100) levels come into play.
Current Level: 0.5429 (1.8420)
Resistance: 0.5445 (1.8720)
Support: 0.5340 (1.8370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5340-0.5432 (1.8409-1.8728)
Boris Johnson is the new Prime Minister of the UK. Pressure has been taken off the English Pound (GBP) for now with a little more certainty entering the picture. The Brexit train wreck however will continue with Johnson speaking last night saying he will work flat out to make a deal with crucial evidence suggesting other arrangements could be possible to fix the Irish border. He is ready and waiting to discuss a deal with the EU suggesting all ministers are committed to leaving on the 31st October whatever happens. This week the Pound has recovered against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to trade off recent lows around 0.5435 (1.8390) pushing back to 0.5350 (1.8700) Friday morning. The long term trend is still bullish with a break below 0.5270 (1.8950) to confirm downside pressure. Next week’s main event is the Bank of England Cash rate and statement with rates expected to remain unchanged at 0.75%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5341 GBPNZD 1.8723
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5343-0.5443 GBPNZD 1.8370- 1.8716
Tonight should see the UK confirm Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister, so at least some political uncertainty will be taken off the table. Unfortunately for the Pound Sterling (GBP) the real concerns are around Brexit and it’s far less certain what’s going to happen there. The GBP has struggled against most other currencies recently, and it’s hard to see any meaningful recovery until something concrete comes out of potential negations between Boris and his European counterparts. In this environment the NZDGBP has been relentlessly testing higher with the pair trading to a fresh cycle high of 0.5444 in the past 24 hours. At this stage the focus remains on further gains and any potential near term weakness will run into good support around 0.5370.
Current Level: 0.5404 (1.8505)
Resistance: 0.5450 (1.8622)
Support: 0.5370 (1.8349)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5365-0.5455 (1.8369-1.8638)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has had a strong week against the Pound Sterling (GBP). A combination of NZD strength and GBP weakness drove the pair to a high of 0.5427 mid-week, although gains have stalled in the past couple of days. With the UK PM race drawing to a close at least some political uncertainty will be taken off the table next week, but it remains to be seen if Boris Johnson, the likely eventual PM, can get any significant concessions out of Europe. Overnight the EU’s Barnier said there will be no renegotiation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, but he also added that he’s ready to work on alternative arrangements for the Irish border issue. We can definitely expect some volatility in the GBP over the coming weeks as news reports about negotiations hit the wires. Support is seen around 0.5290, with topside resistance coming in at 0.5520.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5401 GBPNZD 1.8517
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5314 – 0.5427 GBPNZD 1.8428 – 1.8819
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has gained against the Pound Sterling (GBP) this week, with the market now trading at the best levels since December 2018. NZD gains came in the wake of dovish comments from US Fed Chair Powell and were aided by yesterday’s solid Chinese activity data. On the GBP side of the equation it’s pretty hard to get excited about any potential near term strength in the Pound with so much political and Brexit uncertainty about. The next key resistance level comes in at 0.5520, although that’s still a long way off at this stage. On the downside support is seen around 0.5290, and we expect that to contain any potential periods of weakness over the coming days.
Current Level:0.5369 (1.8624)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8904)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5276-0.5373 (1.8611-1.8955)
There has been little overall direction for the NZDGBP cross rate over the past week. That being said, the broader trend over the past couple of months has been UK Pound (GBP) weakness driving the cross rate higher and recent price action may well just be a period of consolidation within this broader uptrend. As it stands the pair is currently trading around 0.5315, just off the recent high of 0.5345. We could easily see another test of that high over the coming days. Next week could also prove pivotal for the GBP with key releases in the form of employment data, inflation and retail sales all scheduled to hit the wires. We expect the pair to range between 0.5270 and 0.5370 over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5316 GBPNZD 1.8811
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5276 – 0.5327 GBPNZD 1.8772 – 1.8955
It’s hard to get too excited about the prospects for the UK Pound (GBP) at the moment, with disappointing data signalling a potential economic slowdown in the months ahead, along with the current political and Brexit uncertainty. These factors helped to drive the NZDGBP cross rate to high of 0.5345 mid last week, but since then some relative New Zealand dollar (NZD) weakness has seen the pair pull back to currently trade just below 0.5300. The key event this week will be tomorrow’s release of UK GDP data. The market is looking for a gain of 0.3% m/m, but the risk is obviously there that a disappointing outcome will once again see the pair back toward resistance around 0.5350.
Current Level: 0.5290 (1.8904)
Resistance: 0.5350 (1.9084)
Support: 0.5240 (1.8692)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5273-0.5345 (1.8710-1.8965)