FX News

Euro (EUR) focus this week is on the ECB cutting interest rates from 3.40% to 3.15% as they cut faster to alleviate a dropping economy with softer growth forecast. Also on the radar is today’s RBA OCR with no change from 4.35% expected. We are expecting the tone from the RBA Governor to change into “easing timing” and policy direction. The cross has reversed off 0.6045 (1.6540) the 12-week daily low to 0.6105 (1.6380) this morning. Possibly a sneak preview of weekly direction given central bank divergence.

Current Level: 1.6404
Resistance: 1.6540
Support: 1.6300
Last Weeks Range: 1.6158- 1.6560

Euro (EUR) focus this week is on the ECB cutting interest rates from 3.40% to 3.15% as they cut faster to alleviate a dropping economy with softer growth forecast. Also on the radar is today’s RBA OCR with no change from 4.35% expected. We are expecting the tone from the RBA Governor to change into “easing timing” and policy direction. The cross has reversed off 0.6045 (1.6540) the 12-week daily low to 0.6105 (1.6380) this morning. Possibly a sneak preview of weekly direction given central bank divergence.

Current Level: 0.6096
Resistance: 0.6135
Support: 0.6045
Last Weeks Range: 0.6038- 0.6188

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has posted the lowest weekly close of 0.5018 (1.9928) against the British Pound (GBP) since April 2020 to end the week. It didn’t take long Monday for the AUD to pounce back and regain losses to 0.5060 (1.9760) this morning. The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.35% but may highlight the need to start easing policy as early as February. Swati Dhingra, a Bank of England (BoE) policymaker voiced concerns over the weekend that the elevated interest rates are stifling household spending and discouraging economic growth arguing that the current 4.75% interest rate is far to high and damaging expansion. We think the AUD/GBP may retest the 0.5080 (1.9700) area.

Current Level: 1.9821
Resistance: 2.000
Support: 1.9200
Last Weeks Range: 1.9506- 1.9974

The ECB meet this Thursday and should cut interest rates by 25 points to 3.15% but German politics may take centre stage. Germany Chancellor Scholz is expected to call a vote of no confidence on 11 December with the Bundestag voting on 16th December. If he fails, Germany is likely to stage elections in February 2025. Political risk will likely weigh on the EUR. The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross shifted off 0.5510 (1.8150) late Monday to 0.5565 (1.7970) this morning.

Current Level: 1.8040
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7800
Last Weeks Range: 1.7785 – 1.8124

The ECB meet this Thursday and should cut interest rates by 25 points to 3.15% but German politics may take centre stage. Germany Chancellor Scholz is expected to call a vote of no confidence on 11 December with the Bundestag voting on 16th December. If he fails, Germany is likely to stage elections in February 2025. Political risk will likely weigh on the EUR. The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross shifted off 0.5510 (1.8150) late Monday to 0.5565 (1.7970) this morning.

Current Level: 0.5543
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5620
Last week’s range: 0.5517- 0.5622

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 2.1791
Resistance: 2.1900
Support: 2.1550
Last Weeks Range: 2.1471- 2.1863

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 0.4589
Resistance: 0.4640
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4573- 0.4657

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 0.4589
Resistance: 0.4640
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4573- 0.4657