This Weeks Key Points

Key Points:

  • Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 260.178 million with over 5.197 million official deaths.
  • New Zealand has 5213 active cases of coronavirus with 178 new cases today and 1 death. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 276 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1196 new cases with 3 deaths
  • In the latest moves to curb he covid pandemic in Europe France will reinforce their borders as covid infections rise. Austria has locked down and Germany is about to
  • After the latest Fed Minutes we now know that several members prefer a swifter taper, watch policy start to change over the coming months. We expect the Fed to hike 3 times next year
  • A new covid variant B11529 has been identified in Botswana with a few cases identified, labelled by virologist Tom Peacock at the Imperial College of London as “really awful”
  • The USD is the strongest currency this week and the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest on the main board

FX Update: RBNZ Our Key Focus

Market Overview

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 258.298 million with over 5.173 million official
deaths.
• New Zealand has 4614 active cases of coronavirus with 205 new cases today and 2 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 180 new cases and 1 death yesterday with Victoria reporting 1029 new cases with 3 deaths
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been re-elected, his second term will end February 2026
• ECB’s Knot has said he sees no indication that inflation will keep going up past expectations
• We see a 30% chance that the RBNZ will raise rates by 50 points tomorrow
• China sees rate cut of 25 points by the end of 2021
• Australia flash OPMI for November – Index 58.5 vs expected 60.7- Services 55.0 vs 52.7 expected
• The AUD is the strongest and the Japanese Yen is the weakest main board currency this week Read more

FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Tuesday 23/11
All Day, JPY, Bank Holiday
9:30pm, EUR, German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 56.6
Previous 57.8
9:30pm, EUR, German Flash Services PMI
Forecast 51.4
Previous 52.4

Wednesday 24/11
2:00pm, NZD, Official Cash Rate
Forecast 0.75%
Previous 0.50%
2:00pm, NZD, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
2:00pm, NZD, RBNZ Rate Statement
3:00pm, NZD, RBNZ Press Conference Read more

This Weeks Key FX Points

Key Points:

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 256.218 million with over 5.145 million official deaths.
New Zealand has 4163 active cases of coronavirus with 167 new cases today and 2 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 262 new cases and 3 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1007 new cases with 12 deaths
NY Fed President Williams sees a broader based lift to inflation, with the Fed supposed to be providing a healthy economy and low stable inflation – he says they are going backwards
US jobless claims 268k vs 260k predicted
Standard & Poor’s says it’s highly likely Evergrande will default on its repayment obligations
Barclays bank expects global growth to expand by 6.0% this year and 4.4% in 2022
Chinese slowing GDP expectations for 2021 are now forecast to be around 7.8% with 4.7% in 2022 mainly based on their ‘zero tolerance” to covid which has hurt activity- any potential fading out of covid will have massive upside for 2022
After being invited to the Beijing Winter Olympics President Biden and his officials have declined the visit

Personal Money Transfer

FX Update: Greenback Climbs as Inflation Fuels Rate Hike Considerations

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 254.384 million with over 5.119 million official deaths.
• New Zealand has 3056 active cases of coronavirus with 173 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 165 new cases and 1 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 860 new cases with 5 deaths
• The resurgence of covid 19 in Japan has dented the Japanese economy by around 1.0% in the third quarter of 2021- y/y this is a contraction of 3.0%. Pre covid growth is expected to return (+1.0%) in the first quarter of 2022
• Chinese Industrial Production rises from to 3.5% in October from September’s 3.1%
• UK House prices have posted its biggest monthly fall since January
• Massive rises in energy throughout the eurozone weighs on growth forecasts
• Canada’s rising property market took on more heat rising 8.6% from September to October, y/y 18.2%
• Climate talks in Glasgow (COP26) have agreed on a 1.5 degree cap with a last minute compromise with the phase down of coal production.
• China has warned Australian forces to “back off” in their defence of Taiwan saying they could come under “heavy attack” Read more

Economic Releases

Monday 15/11
3pm, CNY, Retail Sales y/y
Forecast: 3.80%
Previous: 4.40%

Tuesday 16/11
2:30am, USD, Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 20.4
Previous: 19.8
1:30pm, AUD, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
3:30pm, AUD, RBA Gov Lowe Speaks Read more

FX Update: NZD Outperforms

Market Overview

• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 250.495 million with over 5.068 million official
deaths.
• New Zealand has 2754 active cases of coronavirus with 190 new cases today and 1 death. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 187 new cases and 4 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1126 new cases with 5 deaths
• The S&P closed at a record level for the seventh straight day Friday while the NASDAQ has closed at a record level for 43 days this year.
• Federal Reserve’s Bullard expects more than 4% GDP growth in 2022 and 2 rate hikes
• ECB’s Lane says extensive accommodation is needed to build up inflationary pressure
• The New Zealand Dollar was the strongest major currency Monday Read more

Economic Releases

Tuesday 08/11
4:30am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
6am, GBP, BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Wednesday 09/11
2:30am, USD, PPI m/m
Forecast 0.60%
Previous 0.50%
3am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
5am, GBP, BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
11:45am, CAD, BOC Gov Macklem Speaks Read more

Central Banks Take Center Stage

Market Overview

Key Points:

  • Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 247.697 million with over 5.018 million official deaths.
  • New Zealand has 1929 active cases of coronavirus with 129 new cases today.  Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 135 new cases and 4 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1471 new cases with 4 deaths
  • NSW have bought forward covid restrictions for the vaccinated to Monday November 8th, first dose numbers are now 93.65%
  • Australian Inflation expectations are now the highest in seven years with figures supporting the annual inflation number is predicted to soar to nearly 5.0% over the next two years
  • Australian Consumer Confidence at 108.4 vs prior 106.8
  • NZ Building permits for September are down 1.9% from August’s 3.8%. Orr expects the easing of house prices in the medium term
  • Supply chain issues are still pushing up Crude Oil prices- today at 84.80 per barrel, analysts are predicting levels to peak at 120.00 per barrel in mid next year and will drive up the prices of gasoline, jet fuel and other energy prices

Read more

Calendar of Economic Releases

Tuesday 02/11
3am, USD, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 60.4
Previous 61.1

Wednesday 03/11
4:30pm, AUD, Cash Rate
Forecast 0.10%
Previous 0.10%
4:30pm, AUD, RBA Rate Statement

Thursday 04/11
1:15am, USD, ADP Non Farm Employment Change
Forecast 400K
Previous 568k
3am, USD, ISM Services PMI
Forecast 61.9
Previous 61.9
7am, USD, FOMC Statement
7am, USD, Federal Funds Rate
Forecast <0.25%
Previous <0.25%
7:30am, USD, FOMC Press Conference
All Day, All, APEC-JMMC Meetings Read more