AUD to EUR – Australian Dollars to Euro
When converting Australian dollars to Euro (AUD to EUR), or EUR to AUD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/EUR currency conversion rates.
AUD to EUR Overview: From the establishment of the Euro zone, until the financial market crisis of 2008, the AUD and EUR both traded in a relatively stable and correlated fashion. However since 2008 this close correlation has broken down considerably. The Australian economy has maintained upward momentum through its close links to the quickly developing Asian economies. The EURO however has been plagued by sovereign debt issues from its smaller nations, as Germany remains its engine for growth.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|AUD/EURO||.6568 – .7339||.6025 – .8620||.4734 – .8620|
|EURO/AUD||1.3625 – 1.5225||1.1601 – 1.6598||1.1601 – 2.1123|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 1.00% European Central Bank (ECB): -0.30%
Last week’s dovish ECB wasn’t enough to hold back the Euro (EUR) this week outperforming the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6190 (1.6160) into Friday. Australian Jobs data printed mixed, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5% from 4.6% surprising markets after predictions of a much higher read at 5.0% never eventuated. The news should have spiked the AUD but netting out any positive moves was a downbeat jobs report revealing a massive 146k contraction in employment, the participation likely to blame. Lagarde delivered her speech titled “moving forward overnight” saying “recovery in the eurozone is faster than anticipated six months ago mostly due to a rapid vaccination campaign”. The comments helped the Euro for a while before falling away to 0.6203 (1.6120).
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6197 EURAUD 1.6135
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6184- 0.6253 EURAUD 1.5992- 1.6169
Prices in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) have been concentrated around the 0.6235 (1.6040) area since Wednesday as the week kicks off colorless. The dovish tone seen post last week’s ECB monetary policy announcement could however carry on through the week with Lagarde confirming covid relief bond buying would continue at 60-70B EUR per month. The economic schedule is thin this week with just Australian jobs data printing Thursday with the unemployment data predicted to rise to 5.0% in August from July’s 4.6%, topside Aussie moves could be limited.
Current Level: 0.6233 (1.6043)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6170)
Support: 0.6185 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6217-0.6275 (1.5936-1.6084)
It’s been a busy week in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with both central banks announcing policy updates. The EUR grabbed the upper hand with the cross travelling to 0.6225 (1.6070) into Friday sessions. The European Central Bank (ECB) will keep their monetary policy loose for the time being amid a resurgence of covid 19 cases. They would however scale back their massive bond buying program to reflect a brighter outlook as the ECB diverging with the Fed to start tapering back QE in the fourth quarter of this year. The emergency PEPP program however has already started to be trimmed back with ECB covid relief buying likely to continue with 60-70B EUR per month Lagarde has confirmed. Earlier the RBA maintained its cash rate target at 0.10% Tuesday and stuck with its original plan to start pulling back their bond buying from 5B per week to 4B until at least February 2022. This comes as the economy loses considerable momentum during a time the country struggles with the delta outbreak. One gets the feeling we may have seen the last of 0.6290 (1.5900) levels for some time with a retest of 0.6180 (1.6180) likely.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6234 EURAUD 1.6041
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6218- 0.6285 EURAUD 1.5909- 1.6083
The Australian Dollar (AUD) briefly surged to the heavy resistance zone around 0.6290 (1.5900) Monday extending last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR), however this move was brief as the pair has traded lower into Tuesday sessions to 0.6265 (1.5960). Assisted primarily by risk sentiment over the past two weeks the Aussie also has benefited from decent Trade Surplus numbers with a record 12.1B in July and exports up 5%. Today the RBA statement releases along with the cash rate, we suspect after a notable decline in business activity and consumer spending over the past several weeks in the wake of increasing coronavirus infections and lockdowns the RBA may not start tapering their QE program just yet. Levels around 0.6225 (1.6060) could get a look over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6264 (1.5965)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6160)
Support: 0.6190 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6182-0.6289 (1.5902-1.6177)
Broad-based positive risk conditions propelled the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6250 (1.6000) against the Euro (EUR) extending moves from the low at 0.6090 (1.6420) the previous week. German Manufacturing sank to a 6 month low in August as manufacturers hustled to keep pace with demand stemming from supply chain issues. This comes as optimism of growth prospects over the following year waned. Eurozone Unemployment published at 7.6% bang on expectations and slightly down from 7.8% in June and the high from last November of 8.4%. Australia’s economy officially bounced back from the covid recession rising 0.7% in the June quarter surprising markets. We all know this doesn’t reflect the full picture of the economy as it’s plagued by ongoing covid led lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne. Next week’s standouts will come in the form of RBA Cash Rate and Eurozone Cash Rate and policy announcements.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 1.6053 EURAUD 0.6229
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6175- 0.6247 EURAUD 1.6006- 1.6193
As the category 4 hurricane hits Louisiana markets have turned risk off Monday with the Euro (EUR) picking up small gains towards month end flows against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.6170 (0.6185). Late in the week price in the pair traded at 0.6205 (1.6115) after the Aussie pulled back from figures around 0.6090 (1.6415) in a week of “risk” moves favouring the AUD post the US Fed chairs positive comments. Earlier German Manufacturing confirmed the economy continues to grow sharply in August indicating a rapid ongoing recovery in employment and increased demands which outstrips supply. Also of note German import prices were up 15% in July the most in 40 years. On the calendar is Aussie second quarter GDP with predictions we could see the economy back in the negatives. A retest of the areas around 0.6150 (1.6260) looks likely.
Current Level: 0.6181 (1.6178)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6460)
Support: 0.6075 (1.5990)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6135-0.6203 (1.6121-1.6301)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been well supported this week against the Euro (EUR) on broad based selling in the US Dollar and positive risk mood as investors put aside global outcome fears. The cross topped out at 0.6185 (1.6165) into Thursday sessions before easing back slightly Friday to 0.6160 (1.6240) as stocks traded down to session lows. Earlier, German manufacturing confirmed the economy continues to grow sharply in August indicating a rapid ongoing recovery in employment and increased demands which are outstripping supply. Focus today is with Australian Retail Sales and the comments to come from Fed chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Next week’s Aussie second quarter GDP is expected to fall from 1.8% q/q to somewhere around 0. Those that are waiting for further improvements in price before buying EUR should consider current levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6161 EURAUD 1.6231
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6092- 0.6186 EURAUD 1.6165- 1.6413
Monday’s pullback off recent lows in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair from around 0.6090 (1.6430) levels Monday was welcomed by Euro buyers with price moving sharply to 0.6140 (1.6280) as risk conditions improved. Despite bumper releases in Eurozone Manufacturing and Services reads the EUR was outplayed. German manufacturing confirmed the economy continues to grow sharply in August indicating a rapid ongoing recovery in employment and increased demand outstripping supply. The key standout this week is Wednesday’s German IFO Business Climate. As risk sentiment fades we could see the EUR regain the edge later this week.
Current Level: 0.6134 (1.6302)
Resistance: 0.6180 (1.6440)
Support: 0.6080 (1.6180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6086-0.6235 (1.6039-1.6432)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has plunged into a fresh yearly low against the Euro (EUR), trading from the weekly open at 0.6250 (1.6000) to 0.6120 (1.6350) marking the biggest weekly move since May 2020 for the cross. The “fight to safety” trade, very evident as investors sought the US Dollar and sold risk currencies in the wake of a mini equity crash and global covid concerns. Also not helping the slump in the AUD was the release of the Australian unemployment rate which printed at 4.6% down from 4.9% as very few people were actively seeking work in July during covid lockdown restrictions currently in place. The unemployment figure is expected to rise dramatically in August as lockdowns have extended across Melbourne. Economists are also expecting a sharp contraction to GDP in the third quarter. Looking ahead we have a slew of Eurozone manufacturing and services reads as well as Australian Retail Sales. With outlook sentiment generally poor we predict further declines for the AUD especially if iron ore prices don’t stabalise over the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6121 EURAUD 1.6337
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6114- 0.6251 EURAUD 1.5996- 1.6355
Risk off markets with geopolitical tensions running high have taken the Australian Dollar down to 0.6220 (1.6070) in early Tuesday trading against the Euro (EUR) extending late last week’s declines. The collapse of the Afghanistan government of late is surprising with anxiety high over the US troops withdrawing from the region. Broad concerns over the delts covid variant and worse than expected economic data out of China is also weighing on the Aussie. Later in the week we will focus on Australian employment figures with expectations of the Unemployment Rate ticking slightly higher in July to 5.0% based on recent setbacks with business closures due to increased covid cases, particularly in NSW. The yearly low of 0.6180 (1.6180) could be tested this week.
Current Level: 0.6206 (1.6113)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6180)
Support: 0.6180 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6217-0.6279 (1.5901-1.6085)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) took a breather from weeks of losses spiking to 0.6290 (1.5900) levels against the Euro (EUR) over the week before risk sentiment got hold and took the cross back to 0.6255 (1.5990) into Friday trading. This week’s economic publications were all about the economic sentiment with both the NAB Business Confidence and German sentiment Index plunging sharply in August. Also, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment confirmed that Europe was heading into a time of increased uncertainty and worry. The AUD stepped out of the long term range briefly on Thursday but has re-joined the bull trendline and could be looking at 0.6210 (1.6100) soon.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6251 EURAUD 1.5997
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR EURAUD 1.59004- 1.6037
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.6180 (1.6180) to close the week just shy of the 0.6250 (1.6000) zone as it was well supported against the Euro (EUR). RBA’s governor Lowe spoke Friday saying the faster everyone gets vaccinated the less damage will be inflicted on the economy. The outbreak in NSW will affect the national economy significantly over the coming months. NSW are still reporting over 200 new cases of coronavirus every day with no sign of letting up. Looking ahead we have NAB Business Confidence, German Economic Sentiment and Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Resistance at 0.6290 (1.5900) should hold with the broader downtrend long term channel predicted to take prices lower towards 0.6200 (1.6150) over the week.
Current Level: 0.6240 (1.6025)
Resistance: 0.6375 (1.6170)
Support: 0.6185 (1.5690)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6203-0.6268 (1.5953-1.6121)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher off the weekly open of 0.6150 (1.6270) to 0.6170 (1.6200) into Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) as risk market improved. It was a sea of red Monday with French and German Manufacturing figures and Services PMI figures printing weaker than expected as well as the Eurozone PMI for September releasing at 45.6 a six year low. Also putting the Euro on the back foot was Draghi speaking in Brussels where he admitted that the Eurozone is unlikely to recover in the medium term. RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight as he comes under increasing pressure to cut rates below 1.0%. With a number of market players calling for a cut at next week’s cash rate announcement his words could be interesting. We expect the EUR to build pressure and possibly retest support at 0.6100 (1.6400)
Current Level: 0.6162 (1.6228)
Resistance: 0.6245 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.6015)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5996-0.6287 (1.5906-1.6677)
Except for some early week pressures on the Euro (EUR) the currency has risen further against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6140 (1.6290) on broad risk sentiment. Australian jobs data released higher than expectations with an additional 22,000 people being added to the workforce, but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which pulled the Aussie lower into Friday. The Aussie was already under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish cut but extending declines further on a lack of positive sentiment. Next week’s German and French manufacturing and Services PMI is the focus. On the downside 0.6100 (1.6400) offers decent support for the Aussie.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6137 EURAUD 1.6294
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6134- 0.6244 EURAUD 1.6015- 1.6300
After the ECB confirmed their new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone by restarting fresh quantitative easing, this has been a source of strength for the EUR (EURO) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clawing back losses to trade at 0.6210 (1.6100) at the weekly close. Several ECB members have voiced their displeasure of the QE package saying it’s a mistake. Hopes for fiscal stimulus out of Germany is also favouring the EUR currently. Looking ahead Australian employment figures release Thursday and should boost the AUD with a good result. Price looks to retest key support at 0.6290 (1.5900) based on recent action.
Current Level:0.6224 (1.6066)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6240)
Support: 0.6160 (1.5940)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6185-0.6287 (1.5906-1.6167)
After three weeks of declines for the Euro (EUR), versus the Australian Dollar (AUD) to fresh lows of 0.6280 (1.5920) the EUR has bounced back to 0.6205 (1.6115) over the ECB monetary policy announcement last night. As expected, the ECB unveiled new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone including cutting the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The main interest rate remains at zero. The meeting confirmed the restart of fresh quantitative easing in the form of 20B EUR every month starting on the 1st of November 2019. This move comes as a direct reflection on the status of not only poor economic health in the Eurozone but global uncertainty. Further momentum extending to 0.6120 (1.6350) will strengthen the case for further downside bias.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6204 EURAUD 1.6118
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6200- 0.6287 EURAUD 1.5904- 1.6128
The Euro (EUR) has retreated eight days straight against a buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6215 (1.6090) Tuesday. This comes after five weeks of declines for the Aussie on the back of improved risk sentiment. Last week’s RBA announcement left rates unchanged at 1.0% but suggested a cut may be required data dependant- markets viewed the statement as less dovish which improved the AUD. Thursday’s ECB rate announcement and monetary statement holds main focus this week with speculation around how much the new QE program will be. Resistance is seen around 0.6290 (1.5900) with reasonable chances of a retest at this level over the week.
Current Level: 0.6211 (1.6100)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6415)
Support: 0.6090 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6116-0.6231 (1.7794-1.8110)
After five months of declines in the Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the Euro (EUR) we should see the week close higher with the Aussie reversing some of these losses. Currently we see the cross trade around 0.6175 (1.6190) mark based on improvement in risk appetite and AUD data impressing over the week. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% but suggested a cut may be required data dependant- markets viewed the statement as less dovish which improved the AUD.GBP printed back on expectations and Trade Balance was slightly above the 7.2B surplus predicted. Next week we have the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. A cut to -0.50% is priced in as well. The ECB haven’t got much choice as the inflation isn’t likely to pick up any time soon, especially given the state of the Eurozone and more importantly the world economic outlook. We suggest a retest of 1.6320 in the coming weeks as global risks are skewed to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6172 EURAUD 1.6202
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6116- 0.6189 EURAUD 1.61570- 1.6350
After nearly three months of downtrends in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross these moves are looking exhausted. Price today is trading around 0.61130 (1.6320) after the Aussie recovered Friday from 0.6080 (1.6450) mainly due to poor building approvals for July at -9.7% from the 0.0% expected took the Aussie lower, this was after poor construction work done figures earlier in the week. What’s interesting Australian House prices look to have bottomed with figures showing a pick up of 0.8% in August as buyers came back into the market. The Euro calendar is bare this week with the cross to get its shifts from today’s RBA cash rate announcement and monetary statement. Later also quarterly GDP and Thursday’s Trade Balance may bring about decent price swings. Resistance sits at 0.6130 (1.6310)
Current Level: 0.6125 (1.6326)
Resistance: 0.6135 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6061-0.6136 (1.6298-1.6500)
Despite poor Australian economic data this week the Aussie has feared reasonably well against the Euro (EUR) holding up around the 0.6085 (1.6430) area. Construction figures followed by CAPEX results deteriorated. Construction in Australia has worsened with a contraction over the second quarter falling by 3.8%. Building Approvals release today and may reflect further building activity declines. Next week is a busy week of data with Australian Retail Sales the RBA cash rate and key second quarter GDP. There are no expectations of the RBA to cut rates lower than the current 1.0% for now until November.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6072 EURAUD 1.6469
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5995- 0.6112 EURAUD 1.6360- 1.6678
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded sharply lower off the weekly open against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5995 (1.6680) before bouncing higher through Tuesday back to 0.6105 (1.6380) as risk sentiment improved. With the ECB looking to increase easing we have seen windows of EUR weakness over the past four weeks or so. As long as risk flows support the AUD we should see price move towards 0.6200 (1.6120) over the coming few weeks.
Current Level: 0.6099 (1.6395)
Resistance: 0.6125 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6025 (1.6330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5996-0.6132 (1.6309-1.6678)
In line with other crosses the Australian dollar (AUD) has also slid lower against the Euro (EUR), currently trading at 0.6098 (1.6400) after a high of 0.6132 earlier in the week. With the ECB set to ramp up easing measures the race is on as to who jumps first the ECB or RBA. We look for AUD weakness on this cross.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6094 EURAUD 1.64085
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6090 – 0.6132 EURAUD 1.6309 – 1.6420
Following on from talk of a possible third quarter Germany recession after figures posted showed a decline in GDP in the second quarter markets have consolidated around 0.6110 (1.6370) with the Australian Dollar (AUD) looking stable post last week’s employment figures. Aussie wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June with an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. Today’s 1.30 NZT RBA minutes holds market focus with investors saying we won’t get much of a surprise to recent easing bias with the central bank remaining in monitoring status for now. With recent deterioration in the trade was we expect more of the same comments.
Current Level: 0.6096 (1.6404)
Resistance: 0.6160 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6240)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6018-0.6132 (1.6309-1.6618)
The Euro (EUR) took on water Wednesday after a round of soft data dropping lower to 0.6105 (1.6380) after rallying earlier in the week to 0.6020 (1.6620) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). A contraction in second quarter GDP printed at -0.1% and grew by 0.4% compared to the same quarter in 2018. The figures follow an upside surprise of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 showing the economy is still growing over the first half of the year- Just. These weak figures could suggest we may see a contraction in the third quarter which would put Germany in a recession. Aussie wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June with an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. UK Retail Sales rose unexpectedly to 0.2% based on predictions of -0.3% highlighting consumers were still spending.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6105 EURAUD 1.6380
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6016- 0.6113 EURAUD 1.6356- 1.6622
The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a little relief late in the week against the Euro (EUR) returning to 0.6090 (1.6410) from 0.5960 (1.6780) but as the week came to a close the Aussie was back under pressure as risk based assets deteriorated. NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment along with Australian wage data and unemployment will be the focus on the economic docket this week. If risk off markets continue into Friday we could see last week’s low broken and levels somewhere mid 0.59’s develop.
Current Level: 0.6028 (1.6590)
Resistance: 0.6100 (1.6970)
Support: 0.5960 (1.6400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5957-0.6095 (1.6406-1.6786)
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair still sits below pivotal support at a multiyear low Friday of 0.6065 (1.6485). Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 1.5% to 1.0% announcement saw the Aussie dive lower in sympathy to 0.5955 (1.6790) the first time in many years we have seen a price below 0.6000 (1.6665). The RBA announced Tuesday they were keeping the benchmark cash rate at 1.0% with the global outlook remaining questionable and inflation expectations low. This had very little impact on the Aussie dollar movement after the release. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario. Eurozone data is thin this week and has generally been well supported in line with an overall risk off tone.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6085 EURAUD 1.6433
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5957- 0.6121 EURAUD 1.6335- 1.6785
The Australian Dollar (AUD) passed 0.6060 (1.6500) heavy support Monday against the Euro (EUR) to enter into multiyear low territory currently trading at 0.6035 (1.6570). In years around currencies I can’t remember ever seeing the AUDEUR trade into the 0.50’s. Today’s RBA interest rate decision holds huge market focus with back to back cuts recently we are not expecting the RBA to go lower on this occasion. Special interest around how governor Lowe perceives the local economy and how future data may influence further easing later in the year to be key. There is no press conference after the meeting, which is usually a sign that a no change is in store. Eurozone have nothing of note on the calendar this week and could be well supported in line with a deteriorated risk tone.
Current Level: 0.6034 (1.6572)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.7000)
Support: 0.6000 (1.6260)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6015-0.6208 (1.6107-1.6624)
Last week’s sharp U turn in price from 0.6290 (1.5900) levels in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair to 0.6130 (1.6310) has been a remarkable shift. Over Thursday’s European trading session price has come from 0.6200 (1.6130). Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy continues to support the EUR this week. GDP in the eurozone continues to grow but not fast enough to meet the ECB’s target of around 1.0% with the ECB expected to ease policy at the September meeting. Australian CPI q/q surprised markets by releasing at 0.6% taking y/y CPI to 1.6% versus the previous 1.5% but we still believe the RBA will cut rates to 0.75% at next week’s RBA meeting. Support of 0.6080 (1.6450) is nearing closer with the last time price was trading at this level was August 2015.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6137 EURAUD 1.6294
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6129-0.6208 EURAUD 1.6106- 1.6314
Last week’s price reversal from the high of 0.6290 (1.5900) has continued into Monday with the Euro (EUR) making all the play against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing price lower to 0.6190 (1.6150). No cut to the fragile EU situation last week sent buyers back into the EUR with Draghi stopping short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come, possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. Aussie quarterly CPI and EU Flash CPI y/y are the focus this week on the calendar and print tomorrow. Short term support for the AUD is 0.6160 (1.6230)
Current Level: 0.6195 (1.6142)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6230)
Support: 0.6160 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6190-0.6292 (1.5893-1.6154)
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair swung wildly during the European trading session overnight with the ECB announcement interest rates would remain at record lows for now or at least until early 2020. Price initially went to 0.6280 (1.5920) then a “no-cut” to rates sent positivity through markets sending the EUR to 0.6215 (1.6090) Draghi stopped short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. He went on to say they were researching possibilities of further QE with TLTROs in the picture.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6226 EURAUD 1.6061
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6215- 0.6292 EURAUD 1.5892- 1.6090
Gains in this pair have stalled in recent days, with the Australian dollar (AUD) twice failing to overcome resistance around the 0.6300 area vs the Euro (EUR). This may well be the precursor to a corrective pullback that would target initial support around 0.6235. If we do get a break above 0.6300 then the market would target 0.6350, but it is looking like upside momentum is waning somewhat and at this stage we’re favoring a test of downside support, before the pair attempts another leg higher. The EUR itself has been hampered recently by speculation about potential new stimulus measures to be announced at this week’s ECB meeting. That meeting will be the primary focus for the market and it will drive the pair over the latter stage of this week. Ahead of that meeting we do have a raft of PMI’s from Europe to digest along with a speech from RBA Gov Lowe.
Current Level: 0.6274 (1.5938)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.6038)
Support: 0.6235 (1.5748)
Last Weeks range: 0.5237-0.6291 (1.5894-1.6034)
The AUDEUR rally that started back in late June has continued this week with the pair making fresh cycle highs at 0.6280 in the past 12 hours. The AUD breathed a sigh of relief after yesterday Australian employment data suggested the RBA can take its time in deciding when to cut interest rates again. The gain of 21k full time jobs, and the stable unemployment rate, make it unlikely the RBA will deliver a third successive interest rate cut at their next meeting. There is some resistance around the 0.6300 area, and then again at 0.6350. On the downside initial support is seen at 0.6235. RBA Gov Lowe speaks next week, while from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6273 EURAUD 1.5941
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6194 – 0.6280 EURAUD 1.5923- 1.6144
Relentless Australian dollar (AUD) gains have been the theme of the past week and against the Euro (EUR) there has been no exception. The pair briefly traded to a low of 0.6161 mid last week, but the bullish AUD move since then has seen an overnight high of 0.6254 trade. The trigger for these AUD gains was a dovish testimony from US Fed Chair Powell, but they have also been helped by solid Chinese activity data released yesterday. Momentum is certainly in the Aussie’s favor at the moment and this move may well have further to run. The market will pay close attention to today’s RBA minutes as well as Thursday’s release of Australian employment data.
Current Level: 0.6250 (1.6000)
Resistance: 0.6375 (1.6194)
Support: 0.6175 (1.5687)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6161-0.6254 (1.5990-1.6230)
The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost ground to the Euro (EUR) this week, suffering after some disappointing local consumer sentiment and business confidence data. The pair has manged to stage something of a recovery off the weeks low, at 0.6161, to currently trade at 0.6199, but near term direction is far from certain. Longer term we suspect strong support around 0.6100 should to put a floor under the pair and we suspect further test toward 0.6250 will likely be seen over the coming week or two.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6197 EURAUD 1.6137
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6161 – 0.6236 EURAUD 1.6036 – 1.6230
The Australian dollar (AUD) has been gaining on the Euro (EUR) since late June, and these gains peaked at 0.6231 in the second half of last week. Since then we have seen the pair consolidate just below that high as the market awaits the next move. We increasingly believe that move will be another leg higher for the AUDEUR with a medium term target of 0.6360. Locally, we have Australian Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment to digest of the coming days. Support is seen coming in around 0.6180 and that should contain any potential periods of weakness in the near term.
Current LeveL: 0.6214 (1.6092)
Resistance: 0.6240 (1.6181)
Support: 0.6180 (1.6026)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6160-0.6240 (1.6025-1.6235)
The Australian Dollar has extended last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) from the low of 0.6090 (1.6415) into Friday clocking 0.6225 (1.6060) The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate from 1.25% to 1.0% Wednesday for the second straight month. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Interestingly the statement appeared less dovish than markets felt and strangely put the AUD back on the road north. Retail Sales and Australian Trade Balance have come in above expectations helping to boost the AUD. We see very little on the economic docket next week for the pair.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6224 EURAUD 1.6066
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6150- 0.6240 EURAUD 1.6024- 1.6258
The Australian Dollar (AUD) turned lower off the weekly open to 0.6150 (1.6250) after dominating the Euro (EUR) last week. Posting an earlier three week high of 0.6190 (1.6150) the Aussie lost steam after risk markets lost bite. The ceasefire between the US and China has relaxed markets for now but we don’t believe this will continue with tensions to increase. Eurozone Core inflation y/y came in on expectations of 1.2% for June showing a stable release based on May’s 0.8%, this was the catalyst for the Euro to recoup some lost ground. Attention now is with the 4.30pm NZT RBA statement and cash rate release. Market forecasters remain split as to a cut today or if they will leave the benchmark rate in place until August. Those that believe a cut is in store today should consider buying EUR ahead of a possible dip in the currency back to 0.6100 (1.6395) Australian Building Approvals and later Retail Sales prints could reflect moderate shifts to price.
Current Level: 0.6176 (1.6191)
Resistance: 0.6200 (1.6270)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6140)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6098-0.6194 (1.6145-1.6400)
Just when we thought price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair would continue to drop through 0.6075 (1.6460) and break new ground we have seen fresh support for the Aussie as it peeled back losses from the past 3 weeks to 0.6165 (1.6220). ECB’s Mario Draghi recent speech reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. RBA’s Lowe spoke Monday saying risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, while the global economy has slowed the outlook still remains reasonable. With climbing commodity prices and equities, risk related currencies have benefited over the week but this could all change once the G20 meeting starts tonight in Osaka with several key meetings taking place to dent sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6159 EURAUD 1.6236
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6093- 0.6166 EURAUD 1.6217- 1.6412
The Euro (EUR) has managed to find a reasonable amount of support over the past two to three weeks against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it trades at 0.6110 (1.6370). ECB’s Mario Draghi recent speech reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. RBA’s Lowe spoke Monday saying risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, while the global economy has slowed the outlook still remains reasonable. Certainly, with recent climbing commodity prices such as iron Ore trading at multi month highs this has fundamentally held up the Aussie from dropping to much dire levels. The G20 meeting in Osaka starting Thursday should give a fair dose of volatility.
Current Level: 0.6105 (1.6380)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.6450)
Support: 0.6080 (1.6260)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6080-0.6148 (1.6265-1.6448)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded a historical low of 0.6080 (1.6450) against the Euro (EUR) early week before staging a decent come back reversal retracing to 0.6145 (1.6270) ECB’s Mario Draghi speech midweek reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. Aussie Dollar weakness is still in play with reasonable chances we may retest the prior low of 0.6080 (1.6450). As we said earlier in the week- sellers of EUR shouldn’t get to greedy as these current levels represent incredible conversion back to AUD opportunities.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6130 EURAUD 1.6313
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6080- 0.6148 EURAUD 1.6264- 1.6447
After falling back to 0.6130 (1.6315) briefly at the weekly close against the Australian Dollar (AUD), the Euro (EUR) has regained its earlier momentum. Pushing into unchartered territory and breaking through massive support at 0.6115 (1.6350) the EUR has gone on to post 0.6105 (1.6380) an August 2015 low. Any downward bias looks slim with a lower low looking more compelling as we look towards the RBA minutes this afternoon. Lowe’s comments later in the week when he speaks on “Labor Markets and Spare Capacity” will impact ahead of key French and German PMI figures. Sellers of EUR shouldn’t get to greedy as these current levels represent incredible conversion back to AUD opportunities.
Current Level: 0.6108 (1.6372)
Resistance: 0.6135 (1.6400)
Support: 0.6100 (1.6300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6102-0.6157 (1.6241-1.6387)
The Euro (EUR) extended gains over the Australian Dollar (AUD) through Thursday to reach a level of 0.6110 (1.6360). Australian unemployment rose to 5.2% from 5.1% with the change in workforce numbers increasing to 42,000 ahead of the predicted 16,000. The problem though was most (39,000) fall under the part time category distorting the numbers. Markets focused on the rise to unemployment which has sent the Aussie lower. The question is are the numbers good enough for the RBA to halt a rate cut in July or will they wait until August? We are expecting a downward forecast to GDP as well which should keep the Aussie under the pump. Friday’s price retraced back to 0.6135 (1.6300) more than likely on profit taking.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6122 EURAUD 1.6334
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6112- 0.6194 EURAUD 1.6144- 1.6361
After a choppy week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair hovering around the 0.6200 (1.6120) area the Euro has made a push for new territory off Monday’s open. Currently trading at pivotal support of 0.6150 (1.6250) a yearly low, a break lower looks compelling given the recent lack of support for the Aussie. Holidays in Australia, France and Germany yesterday saw thin market trading in the cross and higher volatility develop. A break below 0.6135 (1.6300) would confirm a fresh leg of downside momentum if data doesn’t impress this week for the AUD. NAB Business Confidence today should give us a better look followed by Thursday’s jobs figures.
Current Level: 0.6151 (1.6257)
Resistance: 0.6225 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.6070)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6147-0.6231 (1.6050-1.6267)
This cross has remained relatively steady this week , albeit with a gradual AUD weakness…opened the week at 0.6225 and drifted lower to around 0.6189 but has staged a mild recovery on weaker EUR data to 0.6205. Most of the AUD negative news is now priced into this cross and any surprise from the ECB announcement tonight is likely to see this cross pressure the EUR back to the 0.6225 level and above. Continuing solid iron ore prices should hold any AUD retreat at the 0.6150 support level.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6203 EURAUD 1.6121
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6188- 0.6224 EURAUD 1.6067- 1.6159
Over the past week, the Australian dollar has started to regain some of the ground lost to the Euro (EUR) since mid-April. While we don’t discount further potential dips in the pair, it does look like the broader AUDEUR down trend, that’s been in place for nearly six weeks, has run out of steam. The Australian Dollar (AUD) still must negotiate its way through next week’s RBA interest rate meeting, and the almost certain cut in interest rates, but that’s is now largely priced into the market, so it shouldn’t cause the AUD to fall out of bed at all. We would suggest any further dips toward support around 0.6150 are a good opportunity for clients looking to convert EUR to AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6210 EURAUD 1.6103
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6177- 0.6219 EURAUD 1.6078- 1.6187
The Euro (EUR) has been rather steady after the European Election results pushing ever so slightly higher against the Australian Dollar over the course of last week’s trading. RBA’s Lowe finally admitted the economy was running as well as predicted especially with a drop in wage numbers and inflationary pressures on the slide. The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate at their 4th June meeting with a possible two further cuts in 2019. The monetary statement will give us more clues to direction in the pair over the rest of the year. Since late April the EUR has had an edge over the depleted Aussie, we are currently trading at 0.6185 (1.6170) just 43 points off the yearly open at 0.6142 (1.6280).
Current Level:0.6187 (1.6163)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6153-0.6213 (1.6094-1.6251)
The gapping to 0.6210 (1.6100) on the weekly open the Euro (EUR) has recovered to trade back around 0.6170 (1.6200) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it eyes last week’s low of 0.6150 (1.6260). Australian Construction numbers fall by 2.4% for the March quarter after expectations of 0.1% showed total construction was well down. This weighed on the Aussie along with the RBA minutes Tuesday reflected weak inflationary pressures, the RBA finally realising after poor recent employment data the economy is slowing. This in turn should see a cut to the cash rate at the June 4 meeting with possibly another cut to follow later in the year. The EU elections over the weekend could throw up a few surprises. Britons have been voting which was never expected to happen as they were supposed to be gone by now. With the Aussie underperforming we see a retest of the yearly low of 0.6110 (1.6360) in sight.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6156 EURAUD 1.6244
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6153- 0.6212 EURAUD 1.6096- 1.6251
The AUD has gapped higher on this cross opening the week at 0.6179 , tracked all the way up to 0.6213 before settling back around the 0.6195/0.6200 level on the risk-off tone and jitters ahead of the RBA meeting minutes and RBA Governor Lowe speech later today …with European elections to be held over the next few days we remain mildly AUD positive on this cross but any advance beyond 0.6220 is likely to be weakened by the Aussie rate cut concerns.
Current Level: 0.6196 (1.6140)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6150-0.6240 (1.6027-1.6260)
The weaker AUD tone has been seen on this cross as even with the EUR softening against the USD the AUD has not held any ground on this cross as concerns about an RBA rate cut , weaker data and election jitters have weighed on the EUR/AUD cross…now at 0.6169 after starting the week at the 0.6230 level next support is around the 0.6130 mark which could come under test next week if the risk-off tone persists….an overall majority for either party (unlikely) in the election result should be AUD supportive.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6166 EURAUD 1.6217
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6153 – 0.6248 EURAUD 1.6005 – 1.6252
Punching through the previous yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150) this morning against the Euro (EUR) the currency continues to build against a weakened Australian Dollar (AUD). RBA Minutes late last week reiterated the dovish forecast with slower economic growth and inflation to reach the bottom of its band. Unemployment is still propping up any hope left of stability, wage data Thursday will most certainly give us more clues ahead of this weekend’s Australian Elections. Sellers of EUR should be eyeing current prices to sell EUR back into AUD as these levels represent extremely good selling.
Current Level: 0.6190 (1.6155)
Resistance: 0.6225 (1.6190)
Support: 0.6175 (1.6060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6178-0.6287 (1.5905-1.6187)
The RBA has left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5% in what was said to be a neutral statement by governor Lowe. Global outlook remains reasonable with a downside bias. The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher off the release to 1.5920 but was met with a fresh wave of risk off sentiment in the trade was between the US and China. Price retraced through the weekly open to reach 0.6200 (1.6120). The yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150) is now in range with current price showing attractive to sellers of EUR.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6238 EURAUD 1.6030
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6203- 0.6273 EURAUD 1.5940- 1.6120
Coming off the high of 0.6377 (1.5680) mid-April the Australian Dollar (AUD) has depreciated three weeks running against the Euro (EUR) to trade at 0.6245 (1.6020) Tuesday. GDP q/q out of Spain and CPI m/m from Germany along with Eurozone CPI y/y boosted the EUR last week with price edging closer the yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150). RBA today at 4.30pm NZT should be a cracker with investors spit as to a cut to 1.25%. We suspect the RBA will play it safe and leave the rate unchanged until later this year, reiterating a “wait and see” style approach.
Current Level: 0.6242 (1.6020)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6070)
Support: 0.6225 (1.5950)
Last Weeks Range:0.6225-0.6318 (1.5828-1.6063)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed all of last week’s gains trading back to 0.6260 (1.5970) against the preferred Euro (EUR) the AUD underperforming across all major crosses this week. German IFO business sentiment came in weaker than expected denting moral in April showing that Europe’s largest economy is losing momentum. IFO president Clemens said “the German economy continues to lose steam” Spanish Flash GDP said otherwise surprising markets when it printed at 0.7% from 0.6% expected and German prelim m/m CPI also released well at 1.0% from 0.5% markets had forecast. Australian Building approvals prints this afternoon and based on the result may give us a clue as to the mood of the RBA for next week’s Cash rate announcement on Tuesday. The probability of a cut is poised at 50/50 at the moment. Price sits just shy of the six week low of 0.6252 (1.5993) and looks to retest.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6258 EURAUD 1.5979
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6253- 0.6327 EURAUD 1.5805- 1.5991
The Euro (EUR) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) for most of the week reaching a low of 0.6265 (1.5960) with quarterly inflation disappointing at 0.0% based on expectations of 0.2% growth weakening the AUD across the board. Rising concerns over the European growth knocked the EUR late in the week with equity markets in Europe falling. The EUR gave back early gains travelling back to 0.6320 (1.5840). Germany has been the stand out performer in the EU block of late but with Germany’s benchmark 10 year government bond yield going below zero the day after disappointing German IFO sentiment survey, this brings a new set of worry to the region. Wednesday market liquidity will be affected with the French, Germany and Italian’s all taking a day off for Labour day.
Current Level: 0.6299 (1.5875)
Resistance: 0.6310 (1.5950)
Support: 0.6270 (1.5850)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6266-0.6341 (1.5770-1.5958)
The Euro (EUR) has outperformed the Australian dollar (AUD) over the past week, driving the AUD/EUR cross to a low last night of 0.6318. The pair is now approaching a key area of support just above 0.6300 and reaction here will be interesting. Today’s Australian inflation data may well dictate whether that support holds, or whether it gives way. A soft inflation result is likely to see the AUD under renewed pressure. There are however broad concerns about European growth and recent data has done little to allay those. It seems likely that the Euro itself could easily see periods of increased selling pressure over the coming weeks.
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5818)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.6000)
Support: 0.6250 (1.5748)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6318-0.6372 (1.5694-1.5828)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) immediately tracked lower off the weekly open to 0.6320 (1.5830) against the Euro (EUR) but has reversed losses Wednesday after support for the Euro diminished as risk tone shifted supporting commodity currencies. Price sits currently at 0.6360 (1.5720) which is 5 clicks away from the yearly high. Thursday’s Aussie employment data holds the attention of investors tomorrow, the RBA are hoping for a release around a 15,000 increase to the workforce. German manufacturing is late Thursday and should reflect a stable sector based on previous supported data.
Current Level: 0.6346 (1.5758)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.5840)
Support: 0.6315 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6308-0.6364 (1.5712-1.5852)
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) remains choppy with the EUR pushing the cross to 0.6310 (1.5850) early Monday. With the RBA shifting its stance to a more neutral outlook, the RBA stopped short of calling for a rate cut in the next central bank meeting and surprisingly the RBA look more balanced now than other central banks which has boosted the Aussie. Data last week in Australian was also positive, US/China trade talks have helped to support the AUD. We are picking a retest of last week’s high of 0.6365 (1.5712). Transferring your AUD into EUR provides attractive levels now with the pair trading at the top of the current band
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5818)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.5900)
Support: 0.6290 (1.5750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6298-0.6363
Worse than expected German industrial production and manufacturing data overnight hampered Euro EUR) efforts to extend past 0.6300 (1.5880) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing the cross to 0.6345 (1.5760). Although the RBA statement was dovish earlier in the week (cash rate unchanged at 1.50%) Retail Sales and Trade Balance has boosted the Aussie close to the yearly high of 0.6370 (1.5700) we saw earlier in the week during choppy price action during the RBA announcement. Next week the main focus will be on the ECB refinancing rate and statement, we expect the ECB to keep with the recent dovish theme although the ECB is forecasting a recovery of sorts in the second quarter 2019. Great levels to be buying EUR with current prices where they are.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6339 EURAUD 1.5775
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6297- 0.6364 EURAUD 1.5712- 1.5879
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued last week’s momentum against the Euro (EUR) surging to 0.6350 (1.5750) a fresh six- week high. 0.6362 (1.5717) is the yearly high from late February as the Aussie looks poised to break this significant resistance level. We could certainly get close this week if tomorrow’s RBA is even a little positive. The RBA signalled only recently they were neutral saying a cut was as good a chance as a hike but with poor recent data (excluding employment) we could see a dovish bias with a rate cut as early as August. Weakness in Eurozone Manufacturing has taken its toll on economic weakness cementing the ECB’s dovish stance and low inflation. Buyers of EUR should consider transferring or buying EUR as we trade at the current high around 0.6350 (1.5750)
Current Level: 0.6343 (1.5765)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.6100)
Support: 0.6210 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6280-0.6351 (1.8274-1.8731)