AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gave back 3 weeks of gains over the week reversing off 0.5280 (1.8940) to trade back at 0.5200 (1.9220) into Friday. The Aussie has been the worst performing currency on the main board this week. The RBA minutes confirmed the central bank considered raising rates at the May 7th meeting based on inflation staying above their target range for longer. UK CPI also pushed the cross lower with CPI coming in at 2.3% y/y higher than the 2.1% expected but dipping from March’s 3.2% the lowest level since July 2021. Downward pressure on energy prices the main cause along with food. The result will put pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates at their June meeting.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5195 GBPAUD 1.9249

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5197- 0.5281 GBPAUD 1.8935- 1.9240

 

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has suffered its worst week against the US Dollar (USD) since mid-April falling back from 0.6700 levels to 0.6600 as we head into Friday. A more hawkish leaning Fed minutes and some soft Aussie data has left the AUD struggling this week. US medium home sales hit a record high of 387,000 in the 4 weeks to 19 May up 4% from a year ago, meanwhile new home sales slumped in April by 4.7% from March an extraordinary release, however house stock numbers have been very low and may have skewed the report. With the cross dropping through the bottom of the bull channel this week around 0.6620 we may see further downside action to come. Next week’s Australian CPI is on our radar with expectations of the key figure dropping to 3.2% from 3.6% y/y

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6595

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6593- 0.6708

 

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) improved midweek to 0.4840 (2.0670) against the British Pound (GBP), the RBNZ more hawkish than expected sending the kiwi rallying. UK CPI released soon after surprising higher at 2.3% y/y compared to 2.1% forecast. This is still a very good result, down from 3.2% in March- the result sent the cross back towards 0.4800 (2.0850) erasing the earlier NZD move higher. RBNZ’s Orr kept interest rates on hold at 5.5% saying they will need to remain “restrictive: for higher than expected. Rates were expected to be cut from August/November but will now most likely be in the first Q of 2025. UK CPI has tracked to its lowest level in nearly 3 years and was seen as a trigger to Prime minister Sunak to call a snap general election for 4 July. Over the next couple of weeks, we expect price to retest the early Feb high of 0.4900 (2.0400)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4796 GBPNZD 2.0850

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4786- 0.4839 GBPNZD 2.0665- 2.0894

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits in a familiar pocket this morning against the US Dollar (USD) after making moves higher yesterday but falling back to 0.6100 areas. Fed minutes suggested the central bank may not be done with their tightening cycle and could still hike rates clearly more hawkish than we were expecting creating USD buying. Earlier the RBNZ kept rates on hold at 5.5% as widely expected due to stubborn domestic inflation, Orr delivering a shock hawkish tone saying the bank remains concerned with domestic pressures and capacity constraints in the economy. Then kiwi spikes half a cent post the release before returning lower. Rate cuts could be now delayed towards the second quarter of 2025. We may see a little NZD strength into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6088

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6082- 0.6151

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded to a whisker of the yearly open Monday reaching 0.6170 (1.6212) against the Euro (EUR) before reversing to 0.6145 (1.6270) early Tuesday. Euro financial stability has improved with recession fears waning recently, but markets still remain exposed to geopolitical ongoing risks making the EUR a volatile beast. French and German manufacturing releases later in the week could surprise favourably for the euro.

Current Level: 1.6281
Resistance: 1.6370
Support: 1.6200
Last Weeks Range: 1.6221- 1.6368

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded to a whisker of the yearly open Monday reaching 0.6170 (1.6212) against the Euro (EUR) before reversing to 0.6145 (1.6270) early Tuesday. Euro financial stability has improved with recession fears waning recently, but markets still remain exposed to geopolitical ongoing risks making the EUR a volatile beast. French and German manufacturing releases later in the week could surprise favourably for the euro.

Current Level: 0.6142
Resistance: 0.6170
Support: 0.6110
Last Weeks Range: 0.6109- 0.6164

GBP/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below the 2-week recent range this morning against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5250 (1.9055) targeting the 50% retracement area around 0.5235 (1.9100). All eyes this week will be on UK CPI y/y with predictions the number will drop from 3.2% to 2.1% which will make or break a potential June rate cut. Currently we see rate cut chances at 50/50.  The bank’s target range is 2.0% so we are going to get close, buckle in. UK Retail Sales is later in the week but could surprise lower.

Current Level: 1.9058
Resistance: 1.9200
Support: 1.8890
Last Weeks Range: 1.8906- 1.9034

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below the 2-week recent range this morning against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5250 (1.9055) targeting the 50% retracement area around 0.5235 (1.9100). All eyes this week will be on UK CPI y/y with predictions the number will drop from 3.2% to 2.1% which will make or break a potential June rate cut. Currently we see rate cut chances at 50/50.  The bank’s target range is 2.0% so we are going to get close, buckle in. UK Retail Sales is later in the week but could surprise lower.

Current Level: 0.5247
Support: 0.5210
Resistance: 0.5295
Last week’s range: 0.5253- 0.5289

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher in overnight trading to reach 0.6710 against the US Dollar (USD) before slipping back to 0.6665 early Tuesday. The bull trend of late from 0.6400 over the past 5 weeks looks in intact with the next target in the pair to the topside at 0.6850 looking vulnerable. The Aussie should get relief around the 0.6640 zone on the downside with a daily close below here perhaps a concern. US Treasury secretary Yellen speaks tonight before Thursday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s US consumer sentiment.

Current Level: 0.6670
Support: 0.6620
Resistance: 0.6845
Last week’s range: 0.6577- 0.6713

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.5650 (1.7700) Monday after outperforming the Euro last week from 0.5570 (1.7960) levels. The cross then bounced off key fib 61.8 resistance retreating towards 0.5620 (1.7790) midday Tuesday as risk currencies start to lose favour. Eurozone data in the form of decent French unemployment and ECB’s Schnabel also giving the Euro a boost saying cutting rates in June and July should be treated with care. Wednesday’s RBNZ should hold interest rates at 5.5% with talk over rate cut timings key.

Current Level: 1.7793
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7700
Last Weeks Range: 1.7715 – 1.7964