FX News

FX update: Fed holds key this week

Market Overview

• New Zealand is predicted to formally come out of its 2-quarter recession this Thursday when forecasts for a 0.4% number are released for the second quarter 2023. First quarter 2023 was -0.1%
• ECB doesn’t rule out further rate hikes.
• Australian inflation predictions are back below levels prior to the start of the Ukraine war, however rising gasoline prices have the capacity to impact heavily.
• The Fed will hold rates this week amid easing inflation and a softening labour market, however the Federal Reserve faces 3 issues going forward which could derail their expectations of a spongy landing. The Fed holds rates too long before cutting, energy prices rise, and economic growth takes off again.
• New Zealand Services sector (a survey of business conditions) has fallen again in August- the third straight month with the index at 47.1 down 0.9 points from July, the lowest level since January 2022 confirming little hope of recovery.
• The English Pound (GBP) has been the strongest currency in 2023 with the Japanese Yen (JPY) the worst performer.

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