JPY

The long-term bull trend from early August in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross continued Monday with price hovering around the two-week lows at 0.6070 (1.6480). Higher lows followed by higher high’s has been the theme over recent weeks suggesting a retest of 0.6030 (1.6585) over the week before further upside develops in the pair. Current price at 0.6065 (1.6490) also sits bang on the 50% Fibonacci resistance giving further confirmation of a temporary retrace lower for the Aussie.

Current Level: 0.6062
Resistance: 0.6120
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.6006- 0.6072

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended the recent move higher against the British Pound (GBP) into the weekly close to 0.5265 (1.9000), this is the 5th week straight we have seen the AUD outperform reversing off 0.5000 (2.000). 0.5265 (1.9000) represents a resistance pivot point for the cross with direction from here uncertain. We wouldn’t be surprised if the AUD reversed towards 0.5170 (1.9350) over the week.

Current Level: 1.9015
Resistance: 1.9900
Support: 1.8605
Last Weeks Range: 1.8969 – 1.9282

The bear trend momentum in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) kicked into another gear Monday deepening the long-term reversal seen in the cross from mid August’s 1.8460 (0.5420) to 1.7755 (0.5630) today. A breakout past 0.5585 (1.7900) looks to have completed on the chart, the signal needed for a new trend supporting the NZD for a run up to 0.5655 (1.7680). We will certainly see over the coming days if our direction hunch is correct, and the kiwi etches out a longer-term base.

Current Level: 1.7771
Resistance: 1.8400
Support: 1.7560
Last Weeks Range: 1.7790 – 1.8081

The bear trend momentum in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) kicked into another gear Monday deepening the long-term reversal seen in the cross from mid August’s 1.8460 (0.5420) to 1.7755 (0.5630) today. A breakout past 0.5585 (1.7900) looks to have completed on the chart, the signal needed for a new trend supporting the NZD for a run up to 0.5655 (1.7680). We will certainly see over the coming days if our direction hunch is correct, and the kiwi etches out a longer-term base.

Current Level: 0.5627
Support: 0.5435
Resistance: 0.5695
Last week’s range: 0.5530 – 0.5621

Apart from a small uptick early Monday off the open by the English Pound (GBP) to 0.4860 (2.0580), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended long term momentum reaching 0.4890 (2.0460) into Tuesday. The big picture uptrend from 6 weeks ago cleared resistance at 0.4875 (2.0520) which could imply the kiwi could carve out a longer-term uptrend however a push past 0.4905 (2.0380) could be tough.

Current Level: 2.0479
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0000
Last Weeks Range: 2.0485- 2.1000

Apart from a small uptick early Monday off the open by the English Pound (GBP) to 0.4860 (2.0580), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended long term momentum reaching 0.4890 (2.0460) into Tuesday. The big picture uptrend from 6 weeks ago cleared resistance at 0.4875 (2.0520) which could imply the kiwi could carve out a longer-term uptrend however a push past 0.4905 (2.0380) could be tough.

Current Level: 0.4883
Resistance: 0.5000
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4762 – 0.4881

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s push higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9295 (1.0760) clocking a fresh 7 week high in the pair. The breakout from the bear channel through 0.9210 (1.0860) made for a much larger correction move by the kiwi. Resistance is seen at 0.9320 (1.0730) the May high which we expect to hold over the week.

Current Level: 1.0759
Resistance: 1.0900
Support: 1.0720
Last Weeks Range: 1.0787 – 1.0905

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s push higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9295 (1.0760) clocking a fresh 7 week high in the pair. The breakout from the bear channel through 0.9210 (1.0860) made for a much larger correction move by the kiwi. Resistance is seen at 0.9320 (1.0730) the May high which we expect to hold over the week.

Current Level: 0.9282
Resistance: 0.9330
Support: 0.9175
Last Weeks Range: 0.9170 – 0.9270

The NZD is still finding its feet early in the week just below pivotal 0.6000 around 0.5960 after dipping to 0.5740 early Monday against the US Dollar (USD). A push through 0.5980 and a retest of 0.6000 following the momentum trend reversal from early Septembers 0.5860 makes the cross well supported to the topside for now.

Current Level: 0.5964
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5893 – 0.5987

Market Overview

• Long term US yield prices hit a 2007 high overnight.
• The Hollywood writers’ strike has ended agreeing on a deal after 146 days of negotiating.
• Fed’s Bowman, Further hikes likely to counter high inflation.
• The ECB has confirmed the interest rate at 4.5% will remain for some time and will do a lot to bring down inflation to the 2% band. Predictions are that the Eurozone will also avoid a recession.
• The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the strongest currency in the month of September thus far with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performer.