interbank midrate

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left their benchmark rate unchanged overnight at 5.25% as widely predicted. The central bank said policy would need to be restrictive for a long period of time and chances of further rate hikes are a distinct possibility if inflation pressures persist. The British Pound (GBP) fell from 0.4812 (2.0780) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to reach 0.4850 (2.0615) in early morning trade but was back at 0.4830 (2.0700) as I write. Earlier in the week NZ unemployment came in at 3.9% up from 3.6% sending the kiwi to 0.4770 (2.0975) Looking ahead we have NZs inflation expectations. We expect Pound strength to continue next week with a possible retest of 0.4770 (2.0960)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4833 GBPNZD 2.0691

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4768- 0.4851 GBPNZD 2.0612- 2.0971

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

This week’s wave of risk on flow has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) well moving up to 0.6450 levels against the US Dollar (USD) a 6-week high. US data of late and a dovish Fed have markets pricing in the latest cash rate at 5.5% as a peak. The Fed left rates unchanged overnight, Reserve Bank chairman Powell speaking about how much inflation was slowing rather than highlighting how poor recent growth and data has been. Mixed messages by Powell speaking of rate cuts amid prospects of the economy running hot again and the need to hike more. US stocks and commodity markets rallied over 1.5% post the news. US NFP published tonight and should reflect a slowing jobs market and may rally the AUD further. Looking ahead we have next week’s RBA cash rate announcement with the central bank predicted to raise from 4.10%, I would be surprised if we didn’t see numbers north of 0.6480 over the coming days.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6428

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6313- 0.6455

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Australian Retail Sales boosted the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday against the British Pound (GBP), the cross reaching 0.5260 (1.9020). Early Tuesday the Aussie had pulled back to 0.5240 (1.9090) in what could only be described as weird. With momentum in hand to extend the move, possibly to retest a prior low at 0.5300 (1.8870) in our book, it’s gone the other way. With most signals pointing to a hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meet on 7 November and a hold by the Bank of England (BoE) later this week it’s a little strange for investors and positioning. Adding to the “risk on” tone we also have geopolitical tensions easing in Gaza. We favour a move back to 0.5280 (1.8940) this week.

Current Level: 0.5235
Support: 0.5170
Resistance: 0.5280
Last week’s range: 0.5170 – 0.5258

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Extending moves off last week’s yearly low at 0.6270 the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to claw back losses against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6380 this morning. We would need to see a break above 0.6390 before a new bull trend is confirmed. Risk flow has benefited the Aussie and other risk currencies and products with things improving in Gaza/Israel. The Israel ‘ground offensive” has got underway, Israeli forces now deep into Gaza, the fear being the involvement of USA and Iran, which hasn’t happened yet with fighting limited to Gaza. Markets are viewing this as good news. Earlier Australian Retail Sales printed much better than the 0.3% forecast for September coming in at 0.9% bringing back questions if the RBA will hike interest rates on 7 Nov. The Fed meet Thursday and should hold rates at 5.50%

Current Level: 0.6369
Support: 0.6300
Resistance: 0.6550
Last week’s range: 0.6270 – 0.6399

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week off on the back foot dropping to 0.5170 (1.9350) against the British Pound (GBP) clocking a 6-week low. Australian CPI printed Wednesday at 5.6% y/y higher than the expected 5.3% and the previous quarters 5.2%. Investors bought up AUD on mass post the release on speculation a hike of their base interest rate is now a given for their Nov 7 meeting. The cross reached 0.5250 (1.9050) before falling back as flight to safety on global worries set in. Next week’s Bank of England policy report and rate announcement should see a pause by the central bank.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5214 GBPAUD 1.9179

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5170- 0.5258 GBPAUD 1.9016- 1.9339

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.6400 midweek climbing off Monday’s open from 0.6310 against the US Dollar (USD) before reversing hard all the way back through 0.6300 as risk mood deteriorated Thursday. Geopolitical uncertainty has gripped markets with worry developing in the Middle East conflict. The Fed added to downside moves, saying they will keep policy higher for longer. Greenback demand evident, the US Dollar index surging. Early Friday we saw the cross post 0.6270, this is the lowest price in the pair since October 2022 and only the 4th time we have seen the cross trade this low this century. Looking ahead, next week we have the Fed rate release and statement and later (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll releasing. No change from 5.5% is predicted.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6327

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6269- 0.6399

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) pushed to 0.4775 (2.0950) early week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending moves higher over the past two weeks creating a 5-week low in the cross. Assisted by better-than-expected UK Manufacturing data, the sector expanding in the month of September, the argument for the Bank of England to “pause” rate increases has come into play at next week’s policy meeting. Prices returned to 0.4820 (2.0740) midweek before more risk off sentiment sent the kiwi reeling again. The 50% Fib support around 0.4775 (2.0950) should hold heading into the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4796 GBPNZD 2.0850

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4770- 0.4822 GBPNZD 2.0734- 2.0964

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

It’s been all downhill this week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending declines from 0.4880 (2.0480) to 0.4800 (2.0840) against the British Pound (GBP) into morning trading. UK CPI came in hotter than analysts were expecting Wednesday at 6.7% y/y vs 6.6% forecast. This is unlikely to worry the Bank of England to much heading into their next policy meeting. The uptick in CPI attributed to the rise in fuel costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East. The risk off tone may last a while, setbacks in the GBP should be limited to 2.0380 (0.4910) with UK Retail Sales printing tonight.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4811 GBPNZD 2.0785

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4797- 0.4884 GBPNZD 2.0475- 2.0846

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) traded within recent ranges over the week coming into Friday around 0.5210 (1.9190) just above the weekly open. Although earlier week UK CPI came in hotter than expected this didn’t have much effect, the pound falling away to 1.9070 (0.5245) as support for the Aussie returned. Australian Jobs numbers came in soft with less people employed in September, the Aussie giving back gains to 1.9260. Tonight’s Retail Sales in the UK is expected to print negative around the -0.3% mark which in turn could push the Aussie higher.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5210 GBPAUD 1.9138

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5186-0.5243 GBPAUD 1.9071- 1.9280

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

After reaching 0.6390 midweek the Australian Dollar (AUD) has succumbed to a fresh bout of “risk off” sentiment giving back gains reaching 0.6290 against the US Dollar (USD). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified creating a wave of safe haven buying of the greenback. Aussie jobs numbers were disappointing with a drop in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.6%. Australia added less jobs than expected in September which has eased pressures on the RBA for a potential hike at their Nov 7 meeting. As its very bear market currently, we recommend buying USD on any decent spike.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6326

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6295- 0.6392