AUD/USD Transfer

US Manufacturing figures overnight came in soft under 50 while Services PMI numbers improved making the first expansion in the industry in 5 months. This boosted the US Dollar (USD) off 0.6580 levels to 0.6550 this morning. Apart from this slump the Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a decent week after kicking around 0.6540. A soft landing of the US economy is being talked up by Jefferson, vice chair of the Fed; however, rate cuts will depend on upcoming economic progress and the pace of inflation. Next week’s Australian CPI y/y is our key release with forecast of a drop into the 2’s.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6556

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6520- 0.6594

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.5120 (1.9520) late in the week to claw back gains to 0.5190 (1.9260) this morning against the British Pound (GBP). Momentum to the downside has been broken with price travelling through the 0.5180 (1.9300) channel resistance area on its way to posting a fortnight high. RBA minutes releases today from their first meeting of 2024, the central bank will no doubt reiterate their concerns of high inflation and their call to hike if needed. Wednesday’s wage price index should confirm upside risks to wage growth and further work required from the RBA. We expect the Aussie to do well over the week.

Current Level: 0.5184
Support: 0.5125
Resistance: 0.5210
Last week’s range: 0.5120- 0.5195

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost over the weekend after chat from Former RBA Kearns suggesting the cash rate was not high enough. With inflation still an issue it would be a long time before the RBA thought about cutting rates. Monday’s action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross was thin with Presidents Day long weekend. The AUD/USD is perched around 0.6530 with perhaps a tad downside bias in early Tuesday. Fed minutes Thursday before manufacturing data and existing home sales are the key prints to come. We struggle to see the Aussie pushing past 0.6550 and may retrace moves.

Current Level: 0.6524
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6570
Last week’s range: 0.6441- 0.6542

AUD/GBP Transfer

The English Pound (GBP) flew to 1.9520 (0.5120) Wednesday, a fresh 2024 high against the Australian Dollar (AUD). UK CPI remained unchanged at 4.0% after a forecast of 4.1%. This is welcome news for the Bank of England as CPI should stay well contained within the 2.0% target band over the coming months. This should bring about further discussion on rate cuts and the timing of these. We think the central bank will cut rates starting mid-year (June). Aussie job numbers and unemployment came in light, unemployment at 4.1% after 4.0% was forecast. Overnight UK GDP m/m for December surprised markets with a print of -0.3% instead of -0.1% following a contraction in the September 2023 quarter of -0.1% confirming the UK economy is in a recession.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5175 GBPAUD 1.9323

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5120- 0.5193 GBPAUD 1.9253- 1.9528

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked lower over the week clocking 0.6440 against the US Dollar (USD) as it continued its lower highs followed by lower lows theme. A June rate cut is not that likely now after the US CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.1% y/y for December. This is down from November’s 3.4% – forecast was 2.9%. All those punters expecting a rate cut around mid-year may be disappointed; in fact these numbers could get the Fed excited about a hike further. Aussie job numbers came in softer than expected (unemployment 4.1% from 4.0%) with RBA’s Bullock saying inflation remains well anchored. Core Retail Sales printed poorly in the US and the Aussie came steaming back off lows overnight to trade around 0.6520 after equity markets recovered.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6525

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6441- 0.6542

AUD/GBP Transfer

Lower highs and lower lows remain the theme of 2024 in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair. Price action has been all Pound strength over recent weeks however the Aussie has managed a small recovery late last week. Currently trading at 0.5170 (1.9340) off lows at 0.5145 (1.9440) from Thursday. UK CPI y/y for January prints this week, expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% with uptick in energy costs based on a particularly cold month. Oil prices also rose in January along with geopolitical events that will most likely contribute. Australian unemployment releases Thursday and is predicted to rise from 3.9% to 4.0%. We expect the cross to retest the prior low at 0.5140 (1.9450) over the week.

Current Level: 0.5172
Support: 0.5140
Resistance: 0.5200
Last week’s range: 0.5140- 0.5194

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross is still trading in a bear trend in 2024. A pickup from the low at 0.6467 last week to today’s 0.6530 is not enough to shift momentum on the down. Equity markets have been buoyant along with overall market sentiment over the past week. Soft Chinese data has been reflected in the price action with the Aussie pinned to much of the Chinese economy. China CPI came in soft stopping the Aussie making any meaningful topside moves. A slew of US data this week should keep things exciting on the chart starting with CPI y/y tomorrow predicted to come in at 2.9% down from 3.4%. The Fed recently pushing back on interest rate cuts indicating May could be the key date, not March. We also have Retail Sales and consumer sentiment late in the week. Upside for the Aussie could be limited.

Current Level: 0.6530
Support: 0.6480
Resistance: 0.6600
Last week’s range: 0.6467- 0.6539

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be taken to task by the British Pound (GBP) in 2024. Overnight action has seen the cross break into new ground at 0.5145 (1.9440) a fresh yearly low. The Bank of England (BoE) kept rates unchanged at 5.25% in a 6-3 vote. The central bank is confident they have their policy setting correct on the path to bringing back inflation to 2.0% target. Early in the week the RBA left their key interest rate on hold at 4.35% in the first policy meeting for 2024. Inflation remains high was the call from the RBA, inflation continued to ease in the December quarter but still remains high. The RBA has not written off prospects of hiking further. The next target of interest slides at support at 0.5075 (1.9700), next week’s UK CPI and Aussie jobs data will be key.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5143 GBPAUD 1.9443

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5140- 0.5194 GBPAUD 1.9250- 1.9452

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to retest long term lows in 2024 against the US Dollar (USD) and broadly. The currency hasn’t been able to gain any real momentum based largely on central bank plays and large safe haven USD buying- overnight falling to 0.6490. The RBA left interest rates on hold Tuesday at 4.35% saying rates could rise further depending on incoming data and evolving assessments while downwardly revised their inflation and growth forecasts. RBA Gov Bullock said “signs are good” regarding inflation but “we have to be vigilant”. It’s likely the RBA will lag other central banks in moving to cutt rates which in theory could bring buyers back into the Aussie.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6490

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6467- 0.6539

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has flatlined over the past few weeks around the 0.4830 (2.0700) area after starting the year at 0.4960 (2.0150) areas. The Bank of England (BoE) kept rates unchanged late last week at 5.25% in a 6-3 vote. The central bank is confident they have their policy setting correct on the path to bringing back inflation to 2.0% target. The news rallied the GBP to close the week at the high of 0.4800 (2.0830). The Bank of England went on to say they could cut rates by 50 points in the first quarter of 2024 as analysis suggests the BoE have gone too far with rate hikes. New Zealand employment data printed at 4.0% after forecasts of 4.3% were expected suggesting the RBNZ may hold rates for longer before cutting. We might see the kiwi perk up towards the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4829 GBPNZD 2.0708

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4797- 0.4849 GBPNZD 2.0622- 2.0845