interbank midrate

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

This week’s main attraction is a double header of central bank action with the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) both releasing policy statements and cash rates. The Aussie kicked back from 0.5180 (1.9300) mid-week closing around the 0.5275 (1.8960) area extending its run to a 17-week high. Both central banks should retain policy, BoE at 5.25% and the RBA at 4.35%. We see a small chance the RBA could hike to 4.6% but this would be a gutsy move. The BoE could start conversations around cutting sooner than later but will most likely confirm a wait and see approach based on incoming data over the next couple of months. Also of note is monthly UK GDP for March with no improvement from 0.1% expected. We favour a retest of 0.5305 (1.8850) over the week

Current Level: 0.5271
Support: 0.5235
Resistance: 0.5290
Last week’s range: 0.5179- 0.5279

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) extended moves higher Monday off Fridays Non-Farm Payroll data reaching 0.6640. The green back has lost some of its recent appeal, certainly the Federal Reserve are considering rate cuts sooner rather than later now post jobs data. The number of people employed seasonally adjusted in March dropped with just 175,000 new jobs created instead of the 238,000 predicted. Unemployment also ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9% confirming the labour market is cooling. The pair is sitting just below the triple top resistance level at 0.6645 suggesting a pullback could eventuate depending on the RBA this afternoon. The RBA cash rate should remain unchanged at 4.35% but this is not a dead cert with many suggesting a hike is in store. We think with inflationary pressures still hot they should hold for the 4th straight meeting.

Current Level: 0.6622
Support: 0.6565
Resistance: 0.6650
Last week’s range: 0.6464- 0.6647

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Risk sentiment in markets improved throughout the week with the Australian Dollar (AUD) recovering off 0.5180 (1.9300) levels to post 0.5245 (1.9070) into Friday. The cross sits at the top of the recent range going back to January this year- a rally past 0.5265 (1.9000) would suggest further upside could be on the cards. All eyes are on next week’s RBA and Bank of England rate releases and statements with no change expected from the BoE’s 5.25% and RBA’s 4.35%, although a small chance the central bank could hike one more time. This could put the cat among the pigeons if a hike eventuates.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5240 GBPAUD 1.9083

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5178- 0.5251 GBPAUD 1.9041- 1.9309

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.6460 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) making back early week losses on its way to 0.6570 this morning. The Fed held interest rates on hold at 5.5% as widely expected extending a wait and see model, Powell saying inflation setbacks could keep policy in place “higher for longer” and rate increases were certainly not required. Data dependant we believe a shift to policy and potential rate cuts could kick off earlier towards year end. Markets await US Non-Farm Payroll numbers late tonight with unemployment predicted to come in at 3.8% and jobs numbers around 238k, we are expecting the cross to go lower if the report is strong.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6571

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6464- 0.6586

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

A risk off Tuesday has seen the Australian Dollar (AUD) drop to 0.5185 (1.9290) against the British Pound (GBP) early this morning after starting the week out at 0.5235 (1.9100). Australian Retail Sales for the March quarter came in weaker than expected at -0.4% compared to 0.2% bringing early sellers of AUD to the table. US Stocks drifted lower, down over 1.5% in overnight trading as punters started to react to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. On the chart the GBP could run into resistance to the downside at the Fib level at 0.5170 (1.9350).

Current Level: 0.5182
Support: 0.5120
Resistance: 0.5235
Last week’s range: 0.5185- 0.5240

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been unable to hold early week levels around 0.6570 against the US Dollar (USD) dropping in overnight sessions to reach  0.6475. Risk sentiment waned as equity markets were mostly off around 1.5% as investors became nervous around tomorrow’s Fed agenda. Also of note was a weaker US consumer confidence number, the index falling to 97.0 from 103.1 the lowest level since July 2022. As we look ahead to tomorrow’s Fed meeting investors are becoming nervous about inflation expectations and the “higher for longer” mantra. Earlier we saw a drop in Australian Retail Sales falling 0.4% in March, weaker than market predictions, attracting sellers of AUD. Non-farm Payroll prints Friday to end a busy week of economic releases. The level in focus on the downside is 0.6450- a break past here and we could be eyeing 0.6400.

Current Level: 0.6475
Support: 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6640
Last week’s range: 0.6406- 0.6552

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

UK Retail Sales depreciated the British Pound (GBP) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing earlier gains made by the GBP after geopolitical tensions after Iran attacks on Israel. Coming off 1.9480 (0.5135) to close around 1.9270 (0.5190) the GBP extended losses to 1.9120 (0.5230) in early Tuesday trading. Equity markets and stable commodity levels have also supported the AUD, the S&P up over 1% in NY trading. On the docket this week is Aussie CPI q/q for March expected to print higher. Watch for a re-test of moves towards 0.5240 (1.9090).

Current Level: 0.5228
Support: 0.5120
Resistance: 0.5235
Last week’s range: 0.5133- 0.5208

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Signs of a potential base forming in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross look likely with price bouncing off 0.6380 several times over the past year. The reversal off 0.6365 late last week extended into Tuesday with the pair reaching 0.6450, a break past 0.6480 would be reason for a rethink of the overall downside bias in play. Big picture geopolitical uneasiness remains unsettled overall with tensions still reasonably high in Iran/Israel. Still however a mild recovery in equity markets overnight was welcomed by buyers of the big dollar. On the calendar this week is Australian first quarter CPI with predictions of a rise from 0.6% to 0.8% with the y/y number to come off 4.1% to 3.4%. A pickup in the iron ore price from early April’s 98.00 to 108.25 this morning is having a modest impact on the AUD and could continue if Chinese Industrial orders remain buoyant.

Current Level: 0.6460
Support: 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6630
Last week’s range: 0.6360- 0.6492

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Predominantly risk off markets this week has seen the Australian Dollar (AUD) extend losses from mid last week’s 0.5235 (1.9100) levels to reach 0.5140 (1.9450) Wednesday against the British Pound (GBP). The Aussie fought back however to 0.5180 (1.9300) post the Australian employment print which still showed a modestly tight labour market. Earlier UK CPI y/y printed at 3.2% down from 3.4% in February slightly higher than forecast of 3.1% helping to support the GBP, the largest contribution towards the number being a drop in food prices. BoE governor Bailey saying next month he predicts a larger drop to the CPI figure. We expect further downside moves in the AUD over the medium term.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5158 GBPAUD 1.9387

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5139- 0.5208 GBPAUD 1.9199- 1.9456

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to recover some of the early week losses against the US Dollar (USD) in a strong bear market to push off the low at 0.6385 to reach 0.6455 Thursday. Aussie dollar shorts took profit as Australian job numbers rose. Unemployment rose 0.1% to 3.8% in March while the employed fell by 6,600. The Australian labour market is expected to stay buoyant for some time with expectations of unemployment to be at 4.3% by year end. Spending will likely be squeezed with high interest rates. Interest rates not predicted to drop until later in 2024. With the cross trading below key support at 0.6450 we expect further bearish momentum.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6411

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6387- 0.6492