EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains “offered” into Monday against the Euro with price just a touch lower on the open at 0.5540 (1.8050). Although risk appetite has improved with equity markets recovering it’s unusual to not have seen a reversal of sorts from the kiwi. New Zealand Inflation expectations for the third quarter releases Wednesday which should give clues as to whether we might see a shift in monetary policy from the RBNZ and hold or consider another hike? We don’t see any shifts outside the long-term bear channel happening this week with price likely to trickle lower.

Current Level: 0.5547
Resistance: 0.5700
Support: 0.5540
Last Weeks Range: 0.5534 – 0.5659

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a key 12-week level of 0.9325 (1.0725) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the wash up of the RBA leaving rates unchanged last week. The pair is bouncing around the 0.9285 (1.0770) area early Tuesday as it consolidates ahead of a thin week of data releases. NZ Inflation expectations prints tomorrow with the view predicted inflation should be tracking around the 3.0% mark in two years’ time, but this shouldn’t be a big currency mover. Price in the cross could drift close to the 0.9300 (1.0750) area this week.

Current Level: 1.0772
Resistance: 1.0910
Support: 1.0730
Last Weeks Range: 1.0726 – 1.0832

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a key 12-week level of 0.9325 (1.0725) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the wash up of the RBA leaving rates unchanged last week. The pair is bouncing around the 0.9285 (1.0770) area early Tuesday as it consolidates ahead of a thin week of data releases. NZ Inflation expectations prints tomorrow with the view predicted inflation should be tracking around the 3.0% mark in two years’ time, but this shouldn’t be a big currency mover. Price in the cross could drift close to the 0.9300 (1.0750) area this week.

Current Level: 0.9283
Resistance: 0.9320
Support: 0.9165
Last Weeks Range: 0.9147 – 0.9323

Market Overview

Key Points:
• Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) printed poorly at 187,000 compared to 205,000 putting the US Dollar under pressure.
• The Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise rates again, we see a 70% chance the Central Bank will hike 25 points at their Sep 21 meeting.
• Germany’s economic situation is worsening as they face industrial production declines, energy rises, and a lack of consumer spending.
• The Fed have not ruled out the possibility of cutting rates in 2024
• UK House prices fell 0.3% in July vs 0.0%
• The Euro (EUR) has been the strongest currency in the month of August while the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the worst performer.

Major Announcements last week:
• Chinese July Manufacturing 49.3 vs 48.9 forecast
• RBA maintain cash rate at 4.10%
• NZ Unemployment Rate climbs to 3.6% from 3.4% in June
• Bank of England (BoE) hike 25 points to 5.25%
• Canadian Unemployment remains unchanged at 5.5%
• Non-Farm Payroll prints 187k vs 205k expected

FX Update

Key Points:

Australian Manufacturing in July 49.6 vs 48.2 expected, with pressures over the past few months easing.

NZ Building Permits for June +3.5% m/m prior -2.2% which is positive, however the number is still down 20% from the June 22 figure.

Chinese media are taking pot shots at Australia again warning of tight ties with the US after the two countries expand military operations together.

US earnings season continues this week with Apple, Amazon and Uber up this week.

German Retail Sales -0.8% vs 0.2% expected in June highlighting poor consumer spending.

July Chinese manufacturing data index (49.3) remains in contraction- the 4th straight month.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the strongest performer over the month of July with the US Dollar (USD) the worst performer.