currency exchange

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended higher over the week against a struggling English Pound (GBP) with price reaching 0.5195 (1.9245) into Friday. The Pound weighed down by softer industrial production, and dovish employment data. The UK economy shrank in July with figures confirming the economy is cooling as the tightening of monetary policy takes effect. GDP Fell -0.5% compared to the previous month after forecasts were for a -0.2% drop. Next week the Bank of England (BoE) will raise hike rates from 5.25% to 5.50%, we expect the GBP to push higher leading up to the release.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5186 GBPAUD 1.9282

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5110- 0.5196 GBPAUD 1.9245- 1.9569

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Australian Job’s data jumped by a surprise 64,000 vs 25,000 expected with the participation rate rising from 66% to 67% reflecting a healthy jobs market. This took price in the pair from the weekly low of 0.6380 to 0.6460 post the result. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.7%. US CPI y/y accelerated yesterday printing at 3.7% vs 3.6% mainly due to a jump in energy prices. This perhaps proves that getting inflation lower needs a sharper slowdown in the economy. CPI rose 0.6% from July, the fastest pace in more than a year. Adding to the Fed’s problems, Retail Sales also rose in August 0.6% based on 0.1% forecasts. Next week we aren’t expecting the Fed to hike past 5.5% but the chances of a rise in the fourth quarter has risen to 50/50. Buying USD above 0.6400 looks the ticket right now.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6433

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6359- 0.6459

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

We called it. A break above 0.4750 (2.1050) cemented further support for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to push higher with price reaching the 5-week high overnight at 0.4775 (2.0950). Softer UK data this week has rate hike expectations declining. The UK jobs report was rather dovish with no real growth over the past few months along with industrial production disappointing. We still however expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike at next week’s policy meeting from 5.25% to 5.5%- this will be their 15th consecutive hike. We may see GBP strength develop towards the BoE Thursday.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4761 GBPNZD 2.0951- 2.1003

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4714- 0.4773 GBPNZD 2.0951- 2.1213

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has held up around 0.5900 levels most of the week against the US Dollar (USD) in volatile trading. US Inflation is back in causing the Fed problems, rising in the August month by 0.6% and shifting the year-on-year figure from 3.6% to 3.7%, the second rise in a row. The Fed raised rates to a 22 year high in July and the call to raise rates again will largely depend on incoming data, certainly prospects look as though another hike in the fourth quarter may be required. Next week’s Fed meeting is widely predicted to hold at 5.5%. The pair may be losing momentum to the topside analysing the long-term bear channel on the chart. Those needing USD should consider.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5904

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5879- 0.5945

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week with price reaching 0.9175 (1.0900) from early week’s 0.9260 (1.0800) area. Aussie job numbers boosted the AUD after publishing up on expectations. The Unemployment rate remains the same at 3.7% but the participation rate rose from 66% to 67% along with the change in the number of fresh folks employed up 64,000 after 25,000 was expected. Next week’s second quarter GDP will publish, expected to print around the -0.1% area confirming the NZ economy is still in a shallow recession. We see decent support around 0.9160 (1.0920) as the cross resumes the 7-week bear trend from 0.9320 (1.0730)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9175    AUDNZD 1.0890

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9175- 0.9241    AUDNZD 1.0821- 1.0899

 

 

 

FX News

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 0.5981
Resistance: 0.6110
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5919- 0.6006

FX News

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 1.6719
Resistance: 1.7065
Support: 1.6305
Last Weeks Range: 1.6649 – 1.6893

FX News

GBP/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its move higher Monday to 0.5150 (1.9415) vs the British Pound (GBP) easing to 0.5142 (1.945) this morning. Notably the cross has broken the 0.5140 (1.9460) level which could signal further upside for the AUD as the week progresses. UK GDP for July prints this week which could weaken the GBP if we see the forecasted -0.2% reported. Certainly, around these levels buyers of GBP should consider. The long-term trend lower could resume any day.

Current Level: 1.9462
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0680
Last Weeks Range: 1.9465 – 1.9746

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its move higher Monday to 0.5150 (1.9415) vs the British Pound (GBP) easing to 0.5142 (1.945) this morning. Notably the cross has broken the 0.5140 (1.9460) level which could signal further upside for the AUD as the week progresses. UK GDP for July prints this week which could weaken the GBP if we see the forecasted -0.2% reported. Certainly, around these levels buyers of GBP should consider. The long-term trend lower could resume any day.

Current Level: 0.5138
Support: 0.4630
Resistance: 0.4835
Last week’s range: 0.5064 – 0.5137

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) stabilised around 0.6380 into the weekly close, the Aussie holding up pretty well in the face of deteriorating recent Chinese data. This week’s action has seen fresh US weakness giving room for risk currencies to push back- the AUD up at 0.6440 in early Tuesday. The recent strength of the “big” dollar is represented by an 8-week rally in the US Dollar Index, the strongest in the past 9 years. With US inflation printing this week expected to come in around 3.6% up from 3.2% y/y this may give the Fed reason to raise cash rate in the November meeting. The long-term bear trend is still the theme in the pair, perhaps a good time to buy USD if you have been waiting for a spike.

Current Level: 0.6427
Support: 0.6350
Resistance: 0.6880
Last week’s range: 0.6356 – 0.6479