FX News

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher against the Euro (EUR) last week as “risk sentiment” improved closing around the 0.6080 (1.6450) area. The Aussie has been giving back gains on fresh buyer mood in the EUR which returned after the anticipated new German CDU/CSU leader Merz vowed to reduce Germany’s dependence on the United States to boost economic growth. The other plus for the euro is the potential news that Ukraine’s Zelensky would be willing to resign if a peaceful resolution of the Russia/Ukraine was offered up.

Current Level: 1.6490
Resistance: 1.6760
Support: 1.6340
Last Weeks Range: 1.6356- 1.6536

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher against the Euro (EUR) last week as “risk sentiment” improved closing around the 0.6080 (1.6450) area. The Aussie has been giving back gains on fresh buyer mood in the EUR which returned after the anticipated new German CDU/CSU leader Merz vowed to reduce Germany’s dependence on the United States to boost economic growth. The other plus for the euro is the potential news that Ukraine’s Zelensky would be willing to resign if a peaceful resolution of the Russia/Ukraine was offered up.

Current Level: 0.6064
Resistance: 0.6120
Support: 0.5965
Last Weeks Range: 0.6047- 0.6113

The Australian Dollar (AUD) kicked off the week well bouncing back from last week’s slide lower to 0.5045 (1.9830) but regained earlier downside momentum shifting lower to 0.5030 (1.9890) in early Tuesday. Australian GDP prints Wednesday and is predicted to edge higher y/y to  2.6% from 2.5%. Chancellor Reeves thinks the Pound may struggle from the March budget event, the bank could view lower spending as a reason to open up more cuts inline with the BoE recent dovish shift. We expect a retest of 0.5000 (2.000) as the week progresses.

Current Level: 1.9896
Resistance: 2.0000
Support: 1.9610
Last Weeks Range: 1.9743- 1.9896

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded to a yearly high late last week against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5505 (1.8170)  before closing at 0.5495 (1.8200). The NZD however gave back gains to 0.5470 (1.8290) even as NZ Retail Sales printed above expectations to 0.9% for January after 0.5% was predicted. The Euro getting a fresh wave of EUR optimism off the back of anticipated new leadership of Friedrich Merz who has signalled an intent to reduce Germany’s dependence on the US. The 0.5495 (1.8200) level offers good resistance in the pair with a view of further downside in the kiwi this week.

Current Level: 1.8268
Resistance: 1.8530
Support: 1.8170
Last Weeks Range: 1.8170 – 1.8392

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded to a yearly high late last week against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5505 (1.8170)  before closing at 0.5495 (1.8200). The NZD however gave back gains to 0.5470 (1.8290) even as NZ Retail Sales printed above expectations to 0.9% for January after 0.5% was predicted. The Euro getting a fresh wave of EUR optimism off the back of anticipated new leadership of Friedrich Merz who has signalled an intent to reduce Germany’s dependence on the US. The 0.5495 (1.8200) level offers good resistance in the pair with a view of further downside in the kiwi this week.

Current Level: 0.5474
Support: 0.5400
Resistance: 0.5503
Last week’s range: 0.5437- 0.5503

Weekly opening swings of late has been have been incredible with so much geopolitical news over the weekends. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross no exception the NZD retreating off 0.4550 (2.1980) to open at 0.4560 (2.1940) before clocking 0.4535 (2.2050) around midday. NZ Retail Sales came in hot at 0.9% for January vs 0.5% markets were expecting. Late in the week is the G20 meeting in Johannesburg where key issues such as the Ukraine/Russia war will be discussed.

Current Level: 2.2040
Resistance: 2.2380
Support: 2.1930
Last Weeks Range: 2.1935- 2.2210

Weekly opening swings of late has been have been incredible with so much geopolitical news over the weekends. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross no exception the NZD retreating off 0.4550 (2.1980) to open at 0.4560 (2.1940) before clocking 0.4535 (2.2050) around midday. NZ Retail Sales came in hot at 0.9% for January vs 0.5% markets were expecting. Late in the week is the G20 meeting in Johannesburg where key issues such as the Ukraine/Russia war will be discussed.

Current Level: 0.4537
Resistance: 0.4560
Support: 0.4465
Last Weeks Range: 0.4502- 0.4558

Australian CPI y/y Wednesday is the only data focus this week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross. Predictions are for a jump to the December figure from 2.50% to 2.60% y/y. CPI in Australia is expected to rise above 3.00% in the second half of 2025 before returning to the target range of 1-2% in 2026. We think setbacks by the AUD should be well supported at 0.9000 with the continuation of the bear channel resuming towards 0.8985 (1.1130)

Current Level: 1.1064
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1050
Last Weeks Range: 1.1062 – 1.1173

Australian CPI y/y Wednesday is the only data focus this week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross. Predictions are for a jump to the December figure from 2.50% to 2.60% y/y. CPI in Australia is expected to rise above 3.00% in the second half of 2025 before returning to the target range of 1-2% in 2026. We think setbacks by the AUD should be well supported at 0.9000 with the continuation of the bear channel resuming towards 0.8985 (1.1130)

Current Level: 0.9026
Resistance: 0.9050
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8950 – 0.9040