Calendar of Economic Releases

Tuesday March 5
12.30 pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI
Forecast 2.50%
Previous 1.60%
2.45pm CNY Caixin Services PMI
Forecast 52.9
Previous 52.7
5.00pm JPY BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks

Wednesday March 6
4.00am USD ISM Services PMI
Forecast 52.90%
Previous 53.40%
1.30pm AUD GDP q/q
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.20%
10.30pm GBP Construction PMI
Forecast 49.00%
Previous 48.80% Read more

AUD/USD Transfer

The AUD has been faring badly against the USD, battered by the ‘hawkish’ approach to monetary policy by the Fed and the mixed messages emanating from the RBA Governor. Australian inflation has been falling steadily and the latest reading of 3.4% was steady, despite projections of a spike back upwards. The RBA Governor have been all over the shop in recent times, but it will be the grim determination of a ‘hawkish’ Federal Reserve that controls the AUD.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD .6508

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD .6484 – .6565

AUD/GBP Transfer

The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in recession but has green-shoots of growth, allowing some leeway for the Bank of England. The AUD has been undermined by less certainty from the Central Bank. Growth and inflation remain key to both currencies, so data will be watched closely in the coming week.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP .5154 GBPAUD 1.9402

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP .5129 – 5184 GBPAUD 1.9287 – 1.9490

 

AUD/EURO Transfer

The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing of the ‘Big Figure’ of 0.6000, to the downside. The inherent weakness of the commodity currency has driven the fall, while the ECB’s reticence to alter tight monetary policy, is a direct result of the fear of resurgent inflation. Germany is now in recession and many other member states are in the same boat, which has aided in the war on inflation, but at some time, the economic pain must be addressed with pressure to lower interest rates. The question is whether the RBA will blink before the ECB?

The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR .6018 EURAUD 1.6616

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR .5993 – .6066 EURAUD 1.6484 – 1.6684

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England has been very hawkish in their approach to interest rates, holding them at high levels, despite precipitous falls in their inflation levels. This has ensured the strength of the GBP against the NZD, which has weakened from highs of just below 0.5000, to be trading around 0.4800 v the NZD. This downside bias is likely to continue into the near future, as the GBP remains supported by their Central Bank policy.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP .4822 GBPNZD 2.0738

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP .4802 – .4898 GBPNZD 2.0416 – 2.0821

NZD/EURO Transfer

The NZD/EUR cross rate has been dropping most of 2024, falling from the January highs of 0.5730, back to around 0.5600. This has been a product of the weakness of the NZD and the ECB holding steady on monetary policy, as inflation continues to fall. French and German CPI inflation numbers have been steadily falling, but fears of supply pressures, have ensured the ECB holds rates higher for longer.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR .5632 EURNZD 1.7755

The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR .5605 – .5733 EURNZD 1.7441 – 1.7841

 

NZD/AUD Transfer

The cross rate has reached highs of 0.9450, in the last week or so, leading into the latest RBNZ Rate Decision. The NZ Central Bank’s ‘dovish’ stance has allowed the cross rate to drift off recent highs, to trade around 0.9350. The Australian CPI inflation number, released this week, was in line with expectations. The cross rate was softer due to the RBNZ dovish sentiment, but any ‘hawkish’ stance by the RBA Governor, could see the cross-rate re-test highs.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD .9360 AUDNZD 1.0684

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD .9358 – 9457 AUDNZD 1.0574 – 1.0682

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The RBNZ left rates unchanged, as expected by markets, this week gone by. The previous CPI inflation reading from NZ, was softer than expected, and this has led to a more ‘dovish’ approach to monetary policy. The NZD tumbled against all currencies, with the prospect of further weakness, as the Fed continues the ‘higher for longer’ mantra.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .6092

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .6072 – .6194

EURO/AUD Transfer

We have seen a breakout through the 1.6500 (0.6060) area in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair Monday, the Euro rallying to 1.6600 (0.6025) in morning trade, the Euro clocking a key triple top level. Today’s Australian CPI y/y releases tomorrow and is predicted to come in above December’s 3.4%. This will concern the RBA as they target the 2-3% inflation band but may not be enough to warrant the central bank hiking further, it may just imply they push back rate cuts. Recent ECB speak suggests they are not about to cut any time soon. Watch for a retrace back around the 1.6550 (0.6040) area.

Current Level: 1.6597
Resistance: 1.6620
Support: 1.6475
Last Weeks Range: 1.6450- 1.6537

AUD/EURO Transfer

We have seen a breakout through the 1.6500 (0.6060) area in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair Monday, the Euro rallying to 1.6600 (0.6025) in morning trade, the Euro clocking a key triple top level. Today’s Australian CPI y/y releases tomorrow and is predicted to come in above December’s 3.4%. This will concern the RBA as they target the 2-3% inflation band but may not be enough to warrant the central bank hiking further, it may just imply they push back rate cuts. Recent ECB speak suggests they are not about to cut any time soon. Watch for a retrace back around the 1.6550 (0.6040) area.

Current Level: 0.6025
Resistance: 0.6070
Support: 0.6015
Last Weeks Range: 0.6047- 0.6079