AUD/GBP Transfer

Big moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) saw swings from 0.5110 (1.9560) to 0.5190 (1.9270) last week post Aussie GDP release. UK construction came in hot but failed to boost the GBP. Also of note, Chinese import data came in above expectation, the Aussie reacting positively.UK GDP for January prints Wednesday with reports pointing to a rise of 0.2% up from December’s -0.1%. Growth overall has been rising since October with the jobless rate falling. A positive report would ease concerns of a sharp recession. We think a retest of 0.5185 (1.9280) is on the cards this week.

Current Level: 0.5156
Support: 0.5130
Resistance: 0.5185
Last week’s range: 0.5110- 0.5190

AUD/USD Transfer

US Non-Farm Payroll Friday boosted the Australian Dollar to fresh highs of 0.6660 against a weakened US Dollar (USD). In fairness the AUD came from a low of 0.6480 much before the release. China imports data and a stronger equity market also contributed to the strong move higher. Notably the cross has rejected 0.6660 on the topside which sits plumb on the 50% fib retracement of the recent low of 0.6440 and the high of 0.6870 at the start of the year. A slew of US data releases this week including Retail Sales and CPI y/y Wednesday. We think the AUD may drop away towards 0.6540 areas.

Current Level: 0.6610
Support: 0.6500
Resistance: 0.6670
Last week’s range: 0.6476- 0.6666

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5600 (1.7870) late last week- nearly reaching the yearly low against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards the close to 0.5640 (1.7730) levels. The ECB kept their interest rate at 4.5% Friday as widely expected for the 4th time in a row with ECB policy makers in favour of a June rate cut. Discussion of a second rate cut in July was also floated. Although inflation targets are broadly inline the ECB said they would need additional data to steer them in the right direction- wage pressures remain key.

Current Level: 1.7727
Resistance: 1.7820
Support: 1.7630
Last Weeks Range: 1.7623- 1.7862

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell to 0.5600 (1.7870) late last week- nearly reaching the yearly low against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards the close to 0.5640 (1.7730) levels. The ECB kept their interest rate at 4.5% Friday as widely expected for the 4th time in a row with ECB policy makers in favour of a June rate cut. Discussion of a second rate cut in July was also floated. Although inflation targets are broadly inline the ECB said they would need additional data to steer them in the right direction- wage pressures remain key.

Current Level: 0.5641
Support: 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5670
Last week’s range: 0.5596- 0.5674

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week lower at 0.4805 (2.0800) against the British Pound (GBP) after making it through to 0.4840 (2.0660) earlier. Not a lot of late data wise has been going on in the pair with flows following broader based USD moves. The standout this week is monthly UK GDP for January. With the cross failing to push past 0.4785 (2.0900) last week we favour moves towards 0.4855 (2.0600) over the week.

Current Level: 2.0790
Resistance: 2.0915
Support: 2.0530
Last Weeks Range: 2.0662- 2.0912

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week lower at 0.4805 (2.0800) against the British Pound (GBP) after making it through to 0.4840 (2.0660) earlier. Not a lot of late data wise has been going on in the pair with flows following broader based USD moves. The standout this week is monthly UK GDP for January. With the cross failing to push past 0.4785 (2.0900) last week we favour moves towards 0.4855 (2.0600) over the week.

Current Level: 0.4810
Resistance: 0.4870
Support: 0.4780
Last Weeks Range: 0.4781- 0.4839

AUD/NZD Transfer

The weakness in the NZD/AUD rate continues, with the cross rate falling to 0.9270. This remains historically high, but has fallen considerably from early 2024 highs, of 0.9450. The cross rate this week will be largely determined by the RBA, in their latest meeting, to be held today, 19 th March. The RBA will almost certainly leave rates unchanged, but the narrative will be crucial. If the RBA remains ‘hawkish’, we could see some more downside, on the NZD cross-rate.

Current Level: 1.0725
Resistance: 1.0850
Support: 1.0650
Last Weeks Range: 1.0713- 1.0784

NZD/AUD Transfer

Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross continues to be mainly AUD supportive from the high at 0.9460 (1.0570) a fortnight ago to 0.9330 (1.0720) today. We have a thin economic docket this week with no tier one data publishing. Markets look towards the following week when we have RBA cash announcement and NZ GDP q/q. Chinese Import data has certainly assisted the AUD of late along with predictions the RBNZ wont hike again in this cycle and rate cuts likely to start in the August meeting which have been also priced into recent moves.

 

Current Level: 0.9326
Resistance: 0.9380
Support: 0.9250
Last Weeks Range: 0.9305- 0.9384

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed up against the US Dollar (USD) into the close to 0.6170 after recovering from areas around 0.6060. The 8-week high at 0.6219 held Friday before falling back to 0.6160 Monday. US Non-Farm Payroll came in well above expectation Friday with 353,000 new jobs being added to the economy in January. This sank the greenback across the board with investors exciting the currency. Markets await Wednesday’s US CPI data release with predictions of no change from 3.1%. We expect prices in the pair to drift back towards the 0.6120 area.

Current Level: 0.6167
Support: 0.6150
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.6067- 0.6215

 

FX update: kiwi under pressure

Market Overview

• Japan has avoided dropping into a fourth quarter recession with final GDP figures of 0.1% after -0.1% in the September quarter.
• US Non-Farm Payrolls rose 275,000 in February well above the 200k predicted. This underscores the Fed’s expectations of lower growth in 2024. Meanwhile the US unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% from 3.7% a two-year high.
• Chinese CPI rose in February the first time since August 2023 +0.7% y/y – expected 0.3%.
• ECB analysts support a June start to rate cuts.
• US Core inflation due Wednesday morning should reflect easing CPI with expectations of the inflation reading to show a touch below 3.9% to 3.7%. This could give the Fed all they need to start cutting rates in June this year.
• Canadian unemployment pops up to 5.8% in February from 5.7%
• Over 2 million people in the Gaza aren’t able to get enough food. This comes after 200,000 people have faced emergency hunger since December.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency last month while the weakest currency was the US Dollar (USD).