FX News

The Euro (EUR) reached 0.5955 (1.6790) Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after weekend tariff news spiked the EUR, in fact the likely scenario was a fall in the AUD. This level never held with the AUD roaring back to trade at the weekly open of 0.5170 (1.6620)  Aussie Retail Sales which came in better than expected was largely overlooked Monday. The ongoing distress could spell further downside pressures on the RBA – they may be forced to cut rates more aggressively this year.

Current Level: 0.6017
Resistance: 0.6045
Support: 0.5965
Last Weeks Range: 0.5959- 0.6024

A “risk off’ tone Monday saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) fall against the British Pound (GBP) to reach 0.4960 (2.0150) a fresh 2025 low in the wake of fresh US tariff wars extending last week’s declines from the 0.5060 (1.9760) area. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet Thursday night and are widely predicted to cut their interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50% with the vote expected to be fairly unanimous. Markets have prices in 3 further cuts for 2025 but with inflation risks on the high side we may see the central bank signal a 4th cut this year. We may see the Pound lose ground towards the 50-day MA around 0.5025 (1.9900) levels.

Current Level: 1.9992
Resistance: 2.0220
Support: 1.9700
Last Weeks Range: 1.9760- 2.0016

We have entered the 5th week in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) doing nothing of note. Moves have continued to trade sideways since the start of 2025 between the range of 0.5415 (1.8470) and 0.5470 (1.8280). Weekend trade war news sent the cross to 0.5465 (1.8300) to 0.5405 (1.8500) but in early Tuesday the pair is back in the safe house around 0.5435 (1.8400) numbers. Fears are out there for President Trump to target the Eurozone in time may keep the EUR bids down. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data releases with a rise to unemployment of 5.1% expected.

Current Level: 1.8378
Resistance: 1.8450
Support: 1.8320
Last Weeks Range: 1.8345 – 1.8491

We have entered the 5th week in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) doing nothing of note. Moves have continued to trade sideways since the start of 2025 between the range of 0.5415 (1.8470) and 0.5470 (1.8280). Weekend trade war news sent the cross to 0.5465 (1.8300) to 0.5405 (1.8500) but in early Tuesday the pair is back in the safe house around 0.5435 (1.8400) numbers. Fears are out there for President Trump to target the Eurozone in time may keep the EUR bids down. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data releases with a rise to unemployment of 5.1% expected.

Current Level: 0.5441
Support: 0.5420
Resistance: 0.5460
Last week’s range: 0.5408- 0.5451

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) consolidated around the 50% retracement level of 0.4540 (2.2030) late last week the mid- level of the 2025 low and high as it pondered direction. Trump was happy to oblige with weekend news of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China threw markets into a spin. The NZD/GBP cross clocking 0.4500 (2.2210) in the wake of the news as sentiment ebbed and flowed. Since we have seen a push back from the kiwi to 0.4510 (2.2160) as I write. On the calendar we have NZ employment data expected to rise from 4.8% to over 5.0% and the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate release with the bank widely expected to cut rates from 4.75% to 4.50%. We expect moves to retest 0.4485 (2.2300) levels over the week.

Current Level: 2.2109
Resistance: 2.2350
Support: 2.1800
Last Weeks Range: 2.1843- 2.2068

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) consolidated around the 50% retracement level of 0.4540 (2.2030) late last week the mid- level of the 2025 low and high as it pondered direction. Trump was happy to oblige with weekend news of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China threw markets into a spin. The NZD/GBP cross clocking 0.4500 (2.2210) in the wake of the news as sentiment ebbed and flowed. Since we have seen a push back from the kiwi to 0.4510 (2.2160) as I write. On the calendar we have NZ employment data expected to rise from 4.8% to over 5.0% and the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate release with the bank widely expected to cut rates from 4.75% to 4.50%. We expect moves to retest 0.4485 (2.2300) levels over the week.

Current Level: 0.4523
Resistance: 0.4590
Support: 0.4475
Last Weeks Range: 0.4531- 0.4578

Trade tariff news over the past couple of days has benefited the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk markets took a holiday after President Trump said he was imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The NZD made small gains last week from 0.9060 (1.1040) to close at 0.9090 (1.1000). Monday’s open lifted the AUD to trade into morning sessions at 0.9035 (1.1070). Australian Retail Sales surprised us when figures showed a less than dire -0.7% forecast, coming in at -0.1% in January. All eyes will be on NZ employment data printing Wednesday which is expected to show a rise to over 5.0% from the current 4.8%, almost certainly weakening the NZD. In a couple of weeks, the RBNZ meet and should cut rates by 50 points possibly more if employment data releases poorly. The NZD will be doing well to stay in the 90’s

Current Level: 1.1053
Resistance: 1.1090
Support: 1.1000
Last Weeks Range: 1.0999 – 1.1069

Trade tariff news over the past couple of days has benefited the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk markets took a holiday after President Trump said he was imposing tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The NZD made small gains last week from 0.9060 (1.1040) to close at 0.9090 (1.1000). Monday’s open lifted the AUD to trade into morning sessions at 0.9035 (1.1070). Australian Retail Sales surprised us when figures showed a less than dire -0.7% forecast, coming in at -0.1% in January. All eyes will be on NZ employment data printing Wednesday which is expected to show a rise to over 5.0% from the current 4.8%, almost certainly weakening the NZD. In a couple of weeks, the RBNZ meet and should cut rates by 50 points possibly more if employment data releases poorly. The NZD will be doing well to stay in the 90’s

Current Level: 0.9040
Resistance: 0.9090
Support: 0.9020
Last Weeks Range: 0.9034 – 0.9091

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is back up around the 0.5600 mark this morning against the US Dollar (USD) after bottoming out from the weeks open to 0.5515 after global sentiment towards Trump’s tariff wars went down like a “cup of cold sick”. Volatility went through the roof seen early Monday when the kiwi “gapped off Friday’s close at 0.5630 to 0.5590. The fresh low marks the lowest monthly close (January) since early 2003. New Zealand will at some stage come under attack from Tariff fallouts within time impacting the economy and the value and demand of our exports. Data focus this week is NZ Unemployment with a further rise from 5.1% predicted. Buy the spike, sell the dip.

Current Level: 0.5629
Support: 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5700
Last week’s range: 0.5621 – 0.5704