Monday September 9th
1:30pm CNY CPI y/y | Forecast 0.70% | Previous 0.50%
1:30pm CNY PPI y/y | Forecast -1.50% | Previous -0.80%
Tuesday September 10th
6:00pm GBP Claimant Count Change | Forecast 95.5K | Previous 135.0K
6:00pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y | Forecast 4.10% | Previous 4.50%
10th-15th CNY New Loans | Forecast 810B | Previous 260B
Wednesday September 11th
12:10am CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
6:00pm GBP GDP m/m | Forecast 0.20% | Previous 0.00% Read more
UK Trade, GDP growth and Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers will all be released in the coming week. These have all shown recent signs of improvement in previous weeks. If the stronger economic performance continues expect an improvement in short-term confidence, which may add some support to the GBP.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP .5115 GBPAUD 1.9550
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP .5110 – .5165 GBPAUD 1.9344 – 1.9595
The AUD has struggled to perform over the last week, with weaker than expected GDP growth confirming the worst economic conditions since the recession of the 1990’s. The RBA warns inflation remains stubbornly high and interest rates will ‘remain higher for longer’. This should offer support to the currency but weakening economic conditions undermine the currency. The softer economy in the US and Europe, also impact commodity prices negatively, through lower demand, adding to the conundrum.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD .6740
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD .6680 – .6790
The ECB meets again to once again decide interest rate/monetary policy for the Eurozone, this coming week. They may well go ahead and make a further rate cut, as stimulus, and because of the positive reaction to the last rate cut. Inflation remains subdued, following the easing in monetary policy, while the EUR actually rallied. The cross may suffer some downside this time around.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR .6065 EURAUD 1.6485
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR .6050 – .6145 EURAUD 1.6290 – 1.6520
The cross rate with the GBP remains fairly stable and this is likely to continue, into the coming week. The UK releases a slew of important economic data this week, including Trade, GDP Growth and Employment. These will be the focus to judge the performance of the British economy, which is showing ‘green-shoots’ of recovery.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP .4725 GBPNZD 2.1165
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP .4700 – .4745 GBPNZD 2.1030 – 2.1250
The EUR has performed remarkably well recently, despite rate cuts from the ECB. The ECB meet again this coming week and may well offer further rate cuts, to the markets. This would ordinarily add downward pressure to the EUR, but it appears the added stimulation to a recessionary European economy, offers a balance.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR .5600 EURNZD 1.7860
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR .5560 – .5610 EURNZD 1.7713 – 1.7927
The NZD/AUD cross rate has pushed back to 0.9200, supported by continued strong performance of the NZD. The RBA has warned that, ‘interest rates will remain elevated at these high levels for longer to combat stubborn inflation’, lending support to the AUD. The quandary the RBA finds itself in, is economic conditions remain tough in Australia, as GDP growth weakens to levels not seen since the 1990’s. The high interest rates and elevated inflation only add to pressure on the consumer.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD .9220 AUDNZD 1.0820
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD .9165 – .9240 AUDNZD 1.0815 – 1.0905
The NZD looks to consolidate above 0.6200, supported by a weaker reserve currency, which was undermined by a weaker than expected US labour market. The major US labour market reports so far this week, Jolts/ADP/Challenger, all point to further weakness in the labour market and threats of recessionary conditions prevailing in the USA. This will add pressure to the Fed, to begin to cut rates, at their upcoming meeting and perhaps by 50 basis points. This will add further support to commodity currencies.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .6220
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .6130 – .6240
The AUD has slipped back below 0.6800, as a resurgent reserve takes the shine off the currency recovery. Commodity prices have been slowly improving and the stubborn position of the RBA has also supported a rise in the AUD. This week will see the release of the Australian GDP growth number, on Wednesday the 4th of September. This is expected to be around 1%, so positive, but weak. The weaker economy and stubborn inflation catches the RBA ‘between a rock and a hard place’.
Current Level: 0.6785
Resistance: 0.6830
Support: 0.6600
Last Weeks Range: 0.6751- 0.6821
European economic data remains weak, with German GDP growth falling back into negative territory. Manufacturing data out this week, confirms this sector remains in the doldrums, throughout Europe. Energy prices remain at the heart of the problem, which is not likely to change, any time soon. Sanctions continue to take a toll. The cross is likely to weaken back below 0.6100.
Current Level: 1.6273
Resistance: 1.6528
Support: 1.6125
Last Weeks Range: 1.6251- 1.6510