FX News

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) extended moves higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week to reach 1.9215 (0.5205) in early morning trade. The RBA Hiked their interest rate from 4.10% to 4.35% Tuesday but this weirdly had the opposite effect on the AUD sending the currency lower. Usually, such data as an interest rate hike boosts the currency in question but on this occasion market reactions to sell the Aussie has been strange. The AUD made a very brief snap higher but was soon back at 0.5220 (1.9150) post the release. A retest of the prior low at 0.5180 (1.9300) looks our preferred move over the next few days.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5207 GBPAUD 1.9204

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5204- 0.5270 GBPAUD 1.8974- 1.9214

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

NZ Inflation expectations were revised lower to 2.76% from 2.83% over the next two years with the Cash Rate to stay at 5.50% until Dec 2023 and dip to 4.99% by September 2024. The report also highlighted GDP to be around 1.26% over the next year increasing to 2.15% in two years. Bank of England’s Bailey was on the wires a little less dovish than the Bank of England have been of late saying it was too early to talk about cutting rates. The cross should bounce around these current ranges into the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4821 GBPNZD 2.0742

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4803- 0.4850 GBPNZD 2.0616- 2.0817

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back last week’s gains against the US Dollar (USD) falling hard to 0.6360 this morning. Pockets of recoveries midweek saw the pair hold around 0.6400 for a short time but with markets diverting back to “risk off” flow has been unwound into the greenback. The RBA hiked their interest rate to 4.35% as widely expected to a 12 year high. New governor Bullock said she was ready to hike again if required. Inflation is still too high and has proven more persistent than it was a few months back. The release and post sell off in the Aussie left punters scratching heads as usually hikes attract investors buying the associated currency. Attention now will divert to the Australian wages data publishing next week- a sharp rise in numbers may point to another rate hike in December. We expect the current bear trend to continue into the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6365

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6361- 0.6522

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has retraced 50% of last week’s gains from the high at 0.6000 falling lower against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5904 as I write. Risk sentiment has not been as buoyant this week with equity markets and metal commodities not to mention the Gaza conflict all making markets risk averse. NZ Inflation expectations were revised lower to 2.76% from 2.83% over the next two years with the Cash Rate to stay at 5.50% until Dec 2023 and dip to 4.99% by September 2024. The report also highlighted GDP to be around 1.26% over the next year increasing to 2.15% in two years. Jereme Powell speech at an IMF event this morning was interrupted by climate protesters- he was overheard saying “close the fu#king door”, speaking on inflation he said he would not hesitate to tighten policy further if needed. It would be a brave person to forecast the kiwi back at 0.6000 any time soon.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5894

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5890- 0.6000

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced off the key 50% Fibonacci levels at 0.9270 (1.0785) over the past hour, this being the high at 0.9400 (1.0630) and the recent low at 0.9140 (1.0940) suggesting the NZD may be a tad overbought. It wouldn’t surprise us to see prices drift lower to around 0.9215 (1.0850) at the weekly close. The Aussie has struggled all week post the RBA cash rate announcement, the central bank hiking interest rates to 4.35% from 4.10% as predicted but the surprise came when we saw the AUD sell off. Perhaps this was caused by weaker metal prices and a softer Chinese CPI data read?… but strange, nonetheless. Governor Bullock suggested she wouldn’t hesitate to hike again if stubborn inflation remained.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9256 AUDNZD 1.0797

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9178- 0.9274 AUDNZD 1.0782- 1.0895

 

 

 

FX News

This Week’s Key Points

Key Points:

The Federal Reserve has priced in 100 points of cuts in 2024, this has been paired back to 75 points- the USD rallied on the news.
China’s biggest bank ICBC has been hit by a ransomware attack which has affected Chinese Treasuries.
Israel has agreed to 4-hour humanitarian passes in Gaza every day to allow people to get out and trucks carrying supplies to get in. There will be no military operations during these times. 80,000 people were evacuated through this 4-hour window yesterday. Meanwhile Israel attacks have hit a children’s hospital in Gaza particularly worrying as hospitals are considered “safe places”. Read more

FX News

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Euro (EUR) was slayed last week falling to 1.6450 (0.6080) levels against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk on flow demand stimulates the AUD. The cross wasn’t able to kick on past long-term support at 0.6080 (1.6450), bouncing back towards 0.6050 (1.6530) this morning. ECB’s Holzmann said the ECB must be prepared to raise interest rates again if needed, confirming that rates would not be cut any time soon. The ECB left rates unchanged in late October after 10 consecutive hikes. Today’s RBA meeting will confirm a hike in their interest rate from 4.10% to 4.35%. We expect a retest of 0.6080 (1.6450).

Current Level: 1.6520
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6460
Last Weeks Range: 1.6454 – 1.6759

FX News

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Euro (EUR) was slayed last week falling to 1.6450 (0.6080) levels against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk on flow demand stimulates the AUD. The cross wasn’t able to kick on past long-term support at 0.6080 (1.6450), bouncing back towards 0.6050 (1.6530) this morning. ECB’s Holzmann said the ECB must be prepared to raise interest rates again if needed, confirming that rates would not be cut any time soon. The ECB left rates unchanged in late October after 10 consecutive hikes. Today’s RBA meeting will confirm a hike in their interest rate from 4.10% to 4.35%. We expect a retest of 0.6080 (1.6450).

Current Level: 0.6053
Resistance: 0.6075
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.5966 – 0.6067

FX News

GBP/AUD Transfer

The Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish tone saw the Pound (GBP) extend Friday’s direction Monday to 0.5235 (1.9100) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before dropping back to 0.5255 (1.9030) It can be said the Bank of England hadn’t considered cutting rates last week with persistence inflation a worry. The vote a 6-3 hold split with the central bank upgrading their inflation forecast. This week’s focus is on today’s RBA cash rate announcement with predictions the RBA will hike to 4.35% from 4.10% ending 4 meetings of holds. This will be the new governor Michele Bullock’s first hike since taking over recently. In theory we should see Aussie strength today, currently 0.5255 (1.9030) pushing higher in the last few hours.

Current Level: 1.9025
Resistance: 1.9190
Support: 1.8940
Last Weeks Range: 1.8896 – 1.9203

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish tone saw the Pound (GBP) extend Friday’s direction Monday to 0.5235 (1.9100) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before dropping back to 0.5255 (1.9030) It can be said the Bank of England hadn’t considered cutting rates last week with persistence inflation a worry. The vote a 6-3 hold split with the central bank upgrading their inflation forecast. This week’s focus is on today’s RBA cash rate announcement with predictions the RBA will hike to 4.35% from 4.10% ending 4 meetings of holds. This will be the new governor Michele Bullock’s first hike since taking over recently. In theory we should see Aussie strength today, currently 0.5255 (1.9030) pushing higher in the last few hours.

Current Level: 0.5256
Support: 0.5210
Resistance: 0.5280
Last week’s range: 0.5207 – 0.5292