FX News

New Zealand Unemployment rose from 3.6% to 3.9%, the highest level in 2 years while wage growth slowed. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rising to 0.5915 against the US Dollar (USD) boosted also by a fresh wave of “risk on” and poor US data. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 5.50% from the 22-year high signalling rates would remain high well into 2024 in order to hold inflation under control. Markets look to have priced in a peak of 5.50%. The Fed will never rule out hiking further but for now it’s all about “hot” economic data dependent. US Non-Farm Payroll and US Unemployment releases tonight expect more swings and possible upside in the NZD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5891

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5787- 0.5915

New Zealand Unemployment data pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9210 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) midweek but it wasn’t able to hold this area falling back to 0.9140 Thursday. The risk rally we have seen over the week has been more Aussie supportive, with decent rallies in commodities and Iron Ore firming above 124.50. Next week’s RBA cash rate will be key to direction either way, the central bank expected to hike 25 points from 4.10% to help rein in inflation currently sitting at 5.6% y/y. Support at 0.9145 may not hold.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9162 AUDNZD 1.0902

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9139- 0.9231 AUDNZD 1.0842- 1.0941

The Australian Dollar fell through key 0.6000 last week after reaching 0.6040 (1.6555) against the Euro (EUR) on its way to clocking a low of 0.5944 1.6822 as market uncertainty in Gaza hit the wires. This week’s moves in the cross have been benign, trading around 0.6020 (1.6620) areas. ECB’s Muller says a deep recession won’t happen in the Eurozone as inflation is predicted to slow further over the coming months. Inflation is far from the ECB’s target of around 2.0% but recent interest hikes have hit their mark and are having an economic effect. The cross resides in a bull trend but 0.6035 (1.6570) will be hard to breach.

Current Level: 1.6663
Resistance: 1.6850
Support: 1.6590
Last Weeks Range: 1.6557 – 1.6843

The Australian Dollar fell through key 0.6000 last week after reaching 0.6040 (1.6555) against the Euro (EUR) on its way to clocking a low of 0.5944 1.6822 as market uncertainty in Gaza hit the wires. This week’s moves in the cross have been benign, trading around 0.6020 (1.6620) areas. ECB’s Muller says a deep recession won’t happen in the Eurozone as inflation is predicted to slow further over the coming months. Inflation is far from the ECB’s target of around 2.0% but recent interest hikes have hit their mark and are having an economic effect. The cross resides in a bull trend but 0.6035 (1.6570) will be hard to breach.

Current Level: 0.6001
Resistance: 0.6030
Support: 0.5935
Last Weeks Range: 0.5937 – 0.6843

Australian Retail Sales boosted the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday against the British Pound (GBP), the cross reaching 0.5260 (1.9020). Early Tuesday the Aussie had pulled back to 0.5240 (1.9090) in what could only be described as weird. With momentum in hand to extend the move, possibly to retest a prior low at 0.5300 (1.8870) in our book, it’s gone the other way. With most signals pointing to a hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meet on 7 November and a hold by the Bank of England (BoE) later this week it’s a little strange for investors and positioning. Adding to the “risk on” tone we also have geopolitical tensions easing in Gaza. We favour a move back to 0.5280 (1.8940) this week.

Current Level: 1.9102
Resistance: 1.9350
Support: 1.8950
Last Weeks Range: 1.9018 – 1.9339