Tuesday 27/04
Tentative, JPY, BOJ Outlook Report
Wednesday 28/04
8am, CAD, Bocages Gov Macklem Speaks
1:30pm, AUD, CPI q/q
Forecast 0.90%
Previous 0.90%
1:30pm, AUD, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
Forecast 0.50%
Previous 0.40%
Tentative, All, OPEC-JMMC Meetings
FX Update:
New Zealand first quarter 2021 CPI released midweek at 0.8% up on the fourth quarter 2020 and accelerated 1.5% from the same time in 2020, picking up from 1.4% in the fourth quarter y/y matching forecasts. Transport prices led the way rebounding up 1.7% from -3.7% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile the cost of building a new house was up 1.2% or 3.5% y/y along with rental prices up 1.0% for the quarter and 2.7% annually. This gives a sign the central bank may not have the need to cut interest rates any time soon. The bank projects they will be well through 2.0% inflation by the end of 2021. Read more
FX Update:
RBNZ handed out no surprises last week when they left the policy settings in place with the official cash rate remaining unchanged at 0.25% and no changes to the large-scale bond purchases or funding for lending programs for banks. Inflation is expected to jump higher this year from the current 1.4% to well over the 2.0% target point with pressures on import prices and global supply chain disruptions and rises in shipping costs. Most banks expect the OCR to remain unchanged until 2025. I’m not sure they can accurately predict what happens in the global economies 4 years out – as we know 6 months of economic reporting in these coronavirus-fuelled times can look vastly different to forecasted predictions as we have seen. The biggest changes recently to the government’s mandate is housing and the recent changes to loan to value ratios, investment property tax, and how they will react going forward to stronger property prices. Read more
Wednesday 21/04
10:45am, NZD, CPI q/q
Forecast 0.80%
Previous 0.50%
Thursday 22/04
2:00am, CAD, BOC Monetary Policy Report
2:00am, CAD, BOC Rate Statement
3:00am, CAD, BOC Press Conference
11:45pm, EUR, Monetary Policy Statement
Friday 23/04
12:30am, EUR, ECB Press Conference
7:15pm, EUR, French Flash Services PMI
Forecast 46.6
Previous 48.2
7:30pm, EUR, German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 65.8
Previous 66.6
7:30pm, EUR, German Flash Services PMI
Forecast 51.1
Previous 51.5
FX Update:
These are strange times we live in, House prices are going through the roof and we have fresh talk of a double-dip recession.
Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meeting was overall dovish with the central bank maintaining its record low rate of 0.25% and keeping current policy in place.
The Government Bond purchase cap of 100B NZD stays in place with the central Bank saying – it will take “considerable time and patience” for the banks goal of 2.0% inflation target and employment goal of under 4.0% (maximum sustainable) to be achieved. The central bank is expecting inflation to click above 2.0% which will be mostly driven by supply disruptions originating from the pandemic. We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold until well into late 2022 at the very earliest. With fourth quarter GDP coming in at a surprising -1.0% the economy is staring down the barrel of a new economic recession if first quarter 2021 prints negative as well. This data is announced on the 16th of June. Read more
• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 133.002 million with over 2.885 million official
Deaths
• Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a New Zealand- Australia travel free bubble starting from the 19th of this month
• Australia Housing Auction market is running hot with 80% of auctioned properties selling, this has only happened 5 times since 2008
• NZ Credit Card spending for March rose 2.0% over February’s -3.2% and equates for a total of 68% of NZ Retail Sales highlighted a good come back
• The Federal Reserve confirmed a rate hike is at least two years away and happy with inflation going above 2.0% for a while
• Italy will rollout a 40B EUR stimulus package with the vaccination rate in Europe set to speed up over the following few months
Monday 12/04
11am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Tuesday 13/04
2:30am, CAD, BOC Business Outlook Survey
Wednesday 14/04
12:30am, USD, CPI m/m
Forecast: 0.50%
Previous: 0.40%
12:30am, USD, Core CPI m/m
Forecast: 0.20%
Previous: 0.10%
2pm, NZD, RBNZ Rate Statement Read more
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 133.002 million with over 2.885 million official deaths.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a New Zealand- Australia travel free bubble yesterday starting from the 18th of this month.
The Global Dairy Auction Index was higher overnight to 0.3% from last week’s -3.8%
The Suez Canal which has been blocked off by a Japanese container ship has been re-floated and the Canal reopened.
Japan’s PM Suga says a snap election before the end of September is a possibility.
Australian PM Morrison wants to talk with the EU about the held back vaccines after being denied 250,000 doses, Australia’s rollout goal was to vaccinate 1M people per week.
From today the UK will start to roll out the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine with 17M doses secured.
Tuesday 06/04
3:00am, USD, Treasury Sec Yellen Speaks
4:30pm, AUD, RBA Rate Statement
Thursday 08/04
6:00am, USD, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Friday 09/04
4:00am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Saturday 10/04
12:30am, CAD, Employment Change
Forecast 90.0K
Previous 259.2K
12:30am, CAD, Unemployment Rate
Forecast 8.00%
Previous 8.20%
