FX News

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) improved off 0.5410 (1.8490) late in the week to close around the 0.5465 (1.8300) level as risk markets came back online. Early Monday we saw the kiwi extend to 0.5480 (1.8250) however it’s been unable to maintain around this level falling to 0.5470 (1.8280). Eurozone GDP was well received coming in at 0.1% after 0.0% was forecast. ECB’s Panetta believes the ECB should be cutting 75 points over the next 12 months in line with downward pressures on inflation. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy announcement should cut rates by 50 points potentially with a dovish statement. This could put pressure on the NZD this week.

Current Level: 0.5465
Support: 0.5400
Resistance: 0.5485
Last week’s range: 0.5407- 0.5492

Last week’s long positions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross have been unwound this week with the kiwi giving back gains from 0.4565 (2.1900)  levels to 0.4540 (2.2030) this morning. A big part of this will be the RBNZ cash rate tomorrow, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates 50 points to 3.75%. What will be interesting is the ongoing position by the RBNZ and whether they will maintain or get more aggressive for the remainder of 2025. Currently we only have 100 points priced in. Tomorrow’s UK Inflation could tick higher to 2.8% in January from 2.5% y/y and could spike the Pound on the release.

Current Level: 2.2036
Resistance: 2.2380
Support: 2.1900
Last Weeks Range: 2.1832- 2.2176

Last week’s long positions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross have been unwound this week with the kiwi giving back gains from 0.4565 (2.1900)  levels to 0.4540 (2.2030) this morning. A big part of this will be the RBNZ cash rate tomorrow, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates 50 points to 3.75%. What will be interesting is the ongoing position by the RBNZ and whether they will maintain or get more aggressive for the remainder of 2025. Currently we only have 100 points priced in. Tomorrow’s UK Inflation could tick higher to 2.8% in January from 2.5% y/y and could spike the Pound on the release.

Current Level: 0.4538
Resistance: 0.4565
Support: 0.4470
Last Weeks Range: 0.4509- 0.4580

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits around the lower band of the recent trendline support against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at 0.9020 (1.1080) this morning with markets awaiting both central bank interest rate announcement this week. The RBA is first up later today and could release a hawkish policy tone with a 25-point cut. The RBA has maintained the rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023. Tomorrow the RBNZ will also cut rates 50 points to 3.75% with a small chance of a 75-point cut. The policy divergence will be the telling factor with the RBNZ predicted to be downbeat (dovish) around 2025 incoming data predictions implying a more aggressive easing plan. If we are correct this could send the NZD/AUD well into the high 80’s.

Current Level: 1.1084
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1030
Last Weeks Range: 1.1076 – 1.1142

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits around the lower band of the recent trendline support against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at 0.9020 (1.1080) this morning with markets awaiting both central bank interest rate announcement this week. The RBA is first up later today and could release a hawkish policy tone with a 25-point cut. The RBA has maintained the rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023. Tomorrow the RBNZ will also cut rates 50 points to 3.75% with a small chance of a 75-point cut. The policy divergence will be the telling factor with the RBNZ predicted to be downbeat (dovish) around 2025 incoming data predictions implying a more aggressive easing plan. If we are correct this could send the NZD/AUD well into the high 80’s.

Current Level: 0.9015
Resistance: 0.9065
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8975 – 0.9028

After a shaky start to the week with the US holiday creating thin trading conditions the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has managed to hold gains made last week consolidating around the 0.5740 area. Soft US Retail Sales generated bids for the NZD along with a jump in dairy prices. Currently the cross in trading just off the yearly high of 0.5750 and looks like it could retest the 18 Dec high circa 0.5790. This week’s main news comes in the form of the RBNZ cash rate announcement and statement. A cut to 3.75% is widely predicted with a small chance we could see a 75-point shift. Most of this expectation is largely baked into the current price however we could still see a significant shift lower around the announcement. Buyers of USD should consider these levels and take out “risks” before Wednesday RBNZ.

Current Level: 0.5727
Support: 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5780
Last week’s range: 0.5599 – 0.5736

The Euro (EUR) reached 0.5955 (1.6790) Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after weekend tariff news spiked the EUR, in fact the likely scenario was a fall in the AUD. This level never held with the AUD roaring back to trade at the weekly open of 0.5170 (1.6620)  Aussie Retail Sales which came in better than expected was largely overlooked Monday. The ongoing distress could spell further downside pressures on the RBA – they may be forced to cut rates more aggressively this year.

Current Level: 1.6619
Resistance: 1.6760
Support: 1.6540
Last Weeks Range: 1.6599- 1.6779