FX News

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/EUR cross is 0.5596.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits at the August low of 0.5490 (1.8220) against the Euro extending lows over the past couple of weeks. The has been tracking lower against some of the major currencies this week but not the kiwi. ECB’s Lagarde made mention that the ECB’s outlook on restrictive policy is no longer aligned with their changing landscape with inflation and risk balancing. Incoming data will dictate the speed of changing policy ahead. NZ GDP prints tomorrow and should formally take NZ back into recession with an expected growth in the 3rd quarter at -0.2%. We are expecting a push towards 0.5445 (1.8370)

Current Level: 0.5480
Support: 0.5450
Resistance: 0.5500
Last week’s range: 0.5483- 0.5565

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/GBP cross is 0.4744.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found interest late last week clawing back losses from 0.4525 (2.2090) to 0.4580 (2.1840) early this week but has not been able to extend off this area dropping back to the 0.4525 (2.2090) this morning. Central bank divergence again affecting this pair with the Bank of England (BoE) expected to hold interest rates tomorrow at 4.75% while the NZ economy wrestles with a new recession and at least a 50-point cut come Feb 19th next year. Also adding weight to a heavy kiwi is the prospect GDP numbers release tomorrow at -0.2% for the third quarter.

Current Level: 2.2099
Resistance: 2.2800
Support: 2.0800
Last Weeks Range: 2.1720- 2.2096

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/GBP cross is 0.4744.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found interest late last week clawing back losses from 0.4525 (2.2090) to 0.4580 (2.1840) early this week but has not been able to extend off this area dropping back to the 0.4525 (2.2090) this morning. Central bank divergence again affecting this pair with the Bank of England (BoE) expected to hold interest rates tomorrow at 4.75% while the NZ economy wrestles with a new recession and at least a 50-point cut come Feb 19th next year. Also adding weight to a heavy kiwi is the prospect GDP numbers release tomorrow at -0.2% for the third quarter.

Current Level: 0.4525
Resistance: 0.4810
Support: 0.4385
Last Weeks Range: 0.4525- 0.4605

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/GBP cross is 0.4744.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found interest late last week clawing back losses from 0.4525 (2.2090) to 0.4580 (2.1840) early this week but has not been able to extend off this area dropping back to the 0.4525 (2.2090) this morning. Central bank divergence again affecting this pair with the Bank of England (BoE) expected to hold interest rates tomorrow at 4.75% while the NZ economy wrestles with a new recession and at least a 50-point cut come Feb 19th next year. Also adding weight to a heavy kiwi is the prospect GDP numbers release tomorrow at -0.2% for the third quarter.

Current Level: 0.4525
Resistance: 0.4810
Support: 0.4385
Last Weeks Range: 0.4525- 0.4605

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/AUD cross is 0.9174.

With the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforming over the week partly due to prospects of a US/China trade war the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has clawed back gains to 0.9090 (1.1000) this morning. NZ Current Account third quarter came in light and tomorrow’s GDP 3rd quarter is likely to show a contraction of -0.2% putting the economy back into recession. This doesn’t bode well for the NZD with a looming 50/75 point cut in February prices in the pair look way overvalued above 0.9000.

Current Level: 1.0999
Resistance: 1.1080
Support: 1.0930
Last Weeks Range: 1.0933 – 1.1056

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/AUD cross is 0.9174.

With the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforming over the week partly due to prospects of a US/China trade war the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has clawed back gains to 0.9090 (1.1000) this morning. NZ Current Account third quarter came in light and tomorrow’s GDP 3rd quarter is likely to show a contraction of -0.2% putting the economy back into recession. This doesn’t bode well for the NZD with a looming 50/75 point cut in February prices in the pair look way overvalued above 0.9000.

Current Level: 0.9083
Resistance: 0.9150
Support: 0.9025
Last Weeks Range: 0.9044 – 0.9146

The 2024 average rate in the NZD/USD cross is 0.6066.

Further declines in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week against the US Dollar (USD) have the cross down around 0.5750 early Wednesday with no real signs of a retrace in sight. After clearing support around 0.5800 the kiwi looks to retest the 2022 low at 0.5500. With the New Zealand economy down for the count and GDP third quarter to likely come in negative tomorrow putting the economy formally back into recession, we see no topside momentum on the radar. To make things worse govt books released show NZ is unlikely to return to a surplus until 2029- this is 1 year later than first calculated.

Current Level: 0.5753
Support: 0.5550
Resistance: 0.58802
Last week’s range: 0.5753 – 0.5887

Euro (EUR) focus this week is on the ECB cutting interest rates from 3.40% to 3.15% as they cut faster to alleviate a dropping economy with softer growth forecast. Also on the radar is today’s RBA OCR with no change from 4.35% expected. We are expecting the tone from the RBA Governor to change into “easing timing” and policy direction. The cross has reversed off 0.6045 (1.6540) the 12-week daily low to 0.6105 (1.6380) this morning. Possibly a sneak preview of weekly direction given central bank divergence.

Current Level: 1.6404
Resistance: 1.6540
Support: 1.6300
Last Weeks Range: 1.6158- 1.6560