Australia
Healthy September jobs data yesterday showed that the unemployment rate hit a seven-year low, dropping to 5% in September on the back of the continuing jobs boom in Victoria and NSW. Employment increased by only 5600 jobs in seasonally adjusted terms, but the 0.3% decrease in the number of people looking for jobs was also a factor in the overall unemployment rate falling from 5.3 % in August. The participation rate fell from 65.7% to 65.4 %, the lowest level in 11 months. This stronger than expected result, would have come as a surprise to the RBA who had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.25 % to June 2020, reinforcing the view that the next cash rate move from the RBA is likely to be up not down. The Aussie dollar firmed after these figures, rising to 0.7132 against the Greenback. In the prevailing risk-off tone the AUD has struggled to hold onto yesterday’s gains and this morning is trading down around 0.7095. Given that the Australian equity market is trading down we look for the AUD to remain under selling pressure especially if this afternoon’s Chinese GDP, retail sales and Industrial production data disappoints. Next support level is 0.7085 but look for test of 0.7000 over next week.
New Zealand
Little in the way of economic data to drive the NZ dollar in the back end of the week.
Migration data released this morning, showed that net monthly migration slowed to 4,640 in September, the lowest monthly net inflow since 2014. That translated to annual net inflow of people into the country falling to 62,700 – the lowest level since October 2015. Expectations are that migration will continue to ease back over the next few years, pulling population growth down in the process. This reinforces our forecasts for a period of soft demand growth over the coming years.
The NZ dollar has held up reasonably well over the week in the face of a firmer USD, making a high of 0.6598 on Wednesday, but has now drifted back to the 0.6530 level against the Greenback and will remain under pressure if the current risk-off sentiment prevails, another test of the 0.6500 support level looks likely next week. Read more