USD

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 0.5981
Resistance: 0.6110
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5919- 0.6006

The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed slightly up on the British Pound (GBP) for the week at the 0.5130 (1.9500) area compared to 0.5100 (1.9620) last week as market moving economic data was non-existent. US employment data was down on expectations Friday helping to boost the Aussie into the close, however apart from this we had very few shifts. The UK economy still has upward pressures on inflation – the highest in the G10, a September 21 hike is not a given at this stage, but chances are the Bank of England may rise from 5.25%. Looking at this week’s docket we have the RBA tomorrow with no change from 4.1% expected.

Current Level: 1.9561
Resistance: 2.0000
Support: 1.9420
Last Weeks Range: 1.9478 – 1.9651

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is a little weaker off Monday’s open against the Euro (EUR) dropping to 0.5500 (1.8180) this morning as risk sentiment erodes. German Trade Balance came in light overnight printing at 15.9B compared to 17.6B predicted showing the country’s economy continues to waiver. A very thin calendar of events this week could see the EUR gather pace on a fundamental level.

Current Level: 1.8185
Resistance: 1.8485
Support: 1.8050
Last Weeks Range: 1.8081 – 1.8376

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is a little weaker off Monday’s open against the Euro (EUR) dropping to 0.5500 (1.8180) this morning as risk sentiment erodes. German Trade Balance came in light overnight printing at 15.9B compared to 17.6B predicted showing the country’s economy continues to waiver. A very thin calendar of events this week could see the EUR gather pace on a fundamental level.

Current Level: 0.5499
Support: 0.5410
Resistance: 0.5540
Last week’s range: 0.5441 – 0.5530

In a light week of economic data, the English Pound (GBP) for the second week running dropped back slightly against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) opening the week around 0.4725 (2.1160). This week’s only data is the monetary policy hearing minutes Thursday. Global risk sentiment should dictate the week’s moves, we suspect the Pound may recover recent losses especially if markets remain “risk off”. Buying GBP currently north of 0.4700 (2.1276) looks decent given prices 2 weeks ago were well below this level.

Current Level: 2.1285
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0700
Last Weeks Range: 2.1127 – 2.1388

In a light week of economic data, the English Pound (GBP) for the second week running dropped back slightly against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) opening the week around 0.4725 (2.1160). This week’s only data is the monetary policy hearing minutes Thursday. Global risk sentiment should dictate the week’s moves, we suspect the Pound may recover recent losses especially if markets remain “risk off”. Buying GBP currently north of 0.4700 (2.1276) looks decent given prices 2 weeks ago were well below this level.

Current Level: 0.4698
Resistance: 0.4830
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4675 – 0.4733

RBA later today will be about the tone and not the release with the cash rate widely expected to remain unchanged at 4.10% for now. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered losses late in the week to 0.9225 (1.0840) but hasn’t been able to hold here falling away into Tuesday to 0.9190 (1.0880) as markets position for RBA. With price below multiple moving averages we expect the NZD/AUD momentum to edge lower into the weekly close.

Current Level: 1.0865
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0832 – 1.0895

RBA later today will be about the tone and not the release with the cash rate widely expected to remain unchanged at 4.10% for now. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered losses late in the week to 0.9225 (1.0840) but hasn’t been able to hold here falling away into Tuesday to 0.9190 (1.0880) as markets position for RBA. With price below multiple moving averages we expect the NZD/AUD momentum to edge lower into the weekly close.

Current Level: 0.9192
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9178 – 0.9231

Rising bond yields and slowing global growth have created fragile sentiment of late, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) coping the full brunt of this. The kiwi looked good on Friday against the US Dollar (USD) clocking early 0.60’s but stalled, falling back sharply into the close to 0.5940 as risk currencies were sold and equity markets went red. The yearly low at 0.5885 is close, below here and we could see much deeper losses in the NZD. On the docket this week is US ISM PMI data, a leading indicator of economic health.

Current Level: 0.5935
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.5885 – 0.6014