USD

A lot of this week’s moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair will be dictated by monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October releasing Wednesday. We expect inflation to rise at a faster pace of 2.5% compared to 2.1% in September. This will influence the RBA upcoming decision and the path or future policy. German and Spanish inflation reads are out Thursday and look to also print higher than previous months. Technically on the chart price has bounced higher off 0.6190 (1.6160) support which could signal further upside for the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6142
Resistance: 1.6300
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.5966- 1.6360

A lot of this week’s moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair will be dictated by monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October releasing Wednesday. We expect inflation to rise at a faster pace of 2.5% compared to 2.1% in September. This will influence the RBA upcoming decision and the path or future policy. German and Spanish inflation reads are out Thursday and look to also print higher than previous months. Technically on the chart price has bounced higher off 0.6190 (1.6160) support which could signal further upside for the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6195
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6135
Last Weeks Range: 0.6110- 0.6263

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5200 (1.9225) post Monday’s open off last week’s 0.5110  (1.9570). This move wasn’t to last with the Pound clawing back losses into Tuesday to 0.5170 (1.9340). Tomorrow’s Australian CPI release could strengthen the argument for further policy restrictions if the number comes in higher than 2.1% (September) as we predict. We expect the cross to retest 0.5215 (1.9170) this week.

Current Level: 1.9331
Resistance: 1.9680
Support: 1.9170
Last Weeks Range: 1.9230- 1.9572

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) trades around the 0.5570 (1.7950) area this morning after the EUR rebounded off a 7-week high at 0.5640 (1.7740) late last week. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting tomorrow should keep the kiwi offered and under pressure with a 50-point cut predicted. The OIS market is pricing in a 50-point cut in December by the ECB taking the cash rate to under 3.0% with the ECB cautious around energy prices and domestic inflationary pressures. The bear channel in the cross looks fairly robust with the setup favouring a push towards 0.5555 (1.8000) over the coming days.

Current Level: 1.7966
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7835
Last Weeks Range: 1.7744 – 1.8072

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) trades around the 0.5570 (1.7950) area this morning after the EUR rebounded off a 7-week high at 0.5640 (1.7740) late last week. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting tomorrow should keep the kiwi offered and under pressure with a 50-point cut predicted. The OIS market is pricing in a 50-point cut in December by the ECB taking the cash rate to under 3.0% with the ECB cautious around energy prices and domestic inflationary pressures. The bear channel in the cross looks fairly robust with the setup favouring a push towards 0.5555 (1.8000) over the coming days.

Current Level: 0.5566
Support: 0.5495
Resistance: 0.5610
Last week’s range: 0.5533- 0.5635

This cross has been choppy over the past 4 weeks, but the overall trend has been NZD supportive with price coming from 0.4580 (2.1840) late October to 0.4655 (2.1490) this morning. NZ Retail Sales came in at -0.1% for the September quarter, while we have been unable to work out how this is possible. According to our retail clients they are battling to break even – sentiment is certainly not represented by a  -0.1% read. Tomorrow’s RBNZ should cut half a cent to 4.25% – possibly 75 points to 4.00%. We expect to see 4.00% with further slippage in the NZD.

Current Level: 2.1510
Resistance: 2.1780
Support: 2.1430
Last Weeks Range: 2.1407- 2.1625

This cross has been choppy over the past 4 weeks, but the overall trend has been NZD supportive with price coming from 0.4580 (2.1840) late October to 0.4655 (2.1490) this morning. NZ Retail Sales came in at -0.1% for the September quarter, while we have been unable to work out how this is possible. According to our retail clients they are battling to break even – sentiment is certainly not represented  by a  -0.1% read. Tomorrow’s RBNZ should cut half a cent to 4.25% – possibly 75 points to 4.00%. We expect to see 4.00% with further slippage in the NZD.

Current Level: 0.4649
Resistance: 0.4665
Support: 0.4590
Last Weeks Range: 0.4624- 0.4671

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clocked a fresh low of 0.8950 (1.1178) late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the lowest weekly close since October 2022. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi fight back to 0.9000 (1.1110) in early Tuesday, this area now acting as resistance on the chart. This week’s key data prints tomorrow with Australian CPI m/m followed by the RBNZ cash rate release just after midday, both could offer plenty of price moves. Most of the RBNZ cut of 50 points has been priced in, however if the central bank cut interest rates by 75 points to 4.00% we could get further downside moves in the NZD.

Current Level: 1.1125
Resistance: 1.1220
Support: 1.1110
Last Weeks Range: 1.0999 – 1.1179

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clocked a fresh low of 0.8950 (1.1178) late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the lowest weekly close since October 2022. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi fight back to 0.9000 (1.1110) in early Tuesday, this area now acting as resistance on the chart. This week’s key data prints tomorrow with Australian CPI m/m followed by the RBNZ cash rate release just after midday, both could offer plenty of price moves. Most of the RBNZ cut of 50 points has been priced in, however if the central bank cut interest rates by 75 points to 4.00% we could get further downside moves in the NZD.

Current Level: 0.8978
Resistance: 0.8915
Support: 0.9000
Last Weeks Range: 0.9017 – 0.9099

It was a quiet Monday in markets, the US Dollar (USD) dropping in value as profit taking took place. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing higher off 0.5835 gapping to 0.5870 before settling around 0.5850. Late Friday we saw a fresh 2024 low of 0.5815. On the calendar we expect the RBNZ to cut the interest rate from 4.75% to either 4.25% or 4.00%. We are in the minority camp suggesting a cut of 75 points is needed with unemployment rising and businesses continuing to struggle. Those looking at buying USD on a spike should consider in this bear market. 

Current Level: 0.5844
Support: 0.5770
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5816 – 0.5920