USD

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has posted the lowest weekly close of 0.5018 (1.9928) against the British Pound (GBP) since April 2020 to end the week. It didn’t take long Monday for the AUD to pounce back and regain losses to 0.5060 (1.9760) this morning. The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.35% but may highlight the need to start easing policy as early as February. Swati Dhingra, a Bank of England (BoE) policymaker voiced concerns over the weekend that the elevated interest rates are stifling household spending and discouraging economic growth arguing that the current 4.75% interest rate is far to high and damaging expansion. We think the AUD/GBP may retest the 0.5080 (1.9700) area.

Current Level: 1.9821
Resistance: 2.000
Support: 1.9200
Last Weeks Range: 1.9506- 1.9974

The ECB meet this Thursday and should cut interest rates by 25 points to 3.15% but German politics may take centre stage. Germany Chancellor Scholz is expected to call a vote of no confidence on 11 December with the Bundestag voting on 16th December. If he fails, Germany is likely to stage elections in February 2025. Political risk will likely weigh on the EUR. The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross shifted off 0.5510 (1.8150) late Monday to 0.5565 (1.7970) this morning.

Current Level: 1.8040
Resistance: 1.8200
Support: 1.7800
Last Weeks Range: 1.7785 – 1.8124

The ECB meet this Thursday and should cut interest rates by 25 points to 3.15% but German politics may take centre stage. Germany Chancellor Scholz is expected to call a vote of no confidence on 11 December with the Bundestag voting on 16th December. If he fails, Germany is likely to stage elections in February 2025. Political risk will likely weigh on the EUR. The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross shifted off 0.5510 (1.8150) late Monday to 0.5565 (1.7970) this morning.

Current Level: 0.5543
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5620
Last week’s range: 0.5517- 0.5622

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 2.1791
Resistance: 2.1900
Support: 2.1550
Last Weeks Range: 2.1471- 2.1863

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 0.4589
Resistance: 0.4640
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4573- 0.4657

The British Pound (GBP) reached a key level overnight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) of 0.4565 (2.1900) before giving back gains to 0.4600 (2.1735) early today. 0.4565 (2.1900) being the lowest level since Brexit voting mid-2016. We have no significant tier 1 data on the calendar over the next few days only UK GDP m/m to release Friday which shouldn’t move the cross significantly. A retest of 0.4635 (2.1570) is our pick with further recovery by the kiwi expected.

Current Level: 0.4589
Resistance: 0.4640
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4573- 0.4657

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a fresh 10 week high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday clocking 0.9150 (1.0930) before giving back gains to 0.9110 (1.0980) this morning. What’s interesting is the cross is back in the same comfort zone it’s been since early October. Today’s RBA cash rate release holds focus with no change expected from 4.35%. We doubt we will see much excitement around the release with punters looking for clues in the statement for renewed optimism the central bank will be cutting early next year, 25 points is priced into the curve, but the timing will be key.

Current Level: 1.0992
Resistance: 1.1090
Support: 1.0930
Last Weeks Range: 1.0989 – 1.1168

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a fresh 10 week high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday clocking 0.9150 (1.0930) before giving back gains to 0.9110 (1.0980) this morning. What’s interesting is the cross is back in the same comfort zone it’s been since early October. Today’s RBA cash rate release holds focus with no change expected from 4.35%. We doubt we will see much excitement around the release with punters looking for clues in the statement for renewed optimism the central bank will be cutting early next year, 25 points is priced into the curve, but the timing will be key.

Current Level: 0.9088
Resistance: 0.9150
Support: 0.9020
Last Weeks Range: 0.9066 – 0.9140

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped lower off the weekly open recording 0.5800 against the US Dollar (USD) just avoiding the October 2023 low. The greenback then started posting losses as the kiwi recovered into Tuesday all the way back to 0.5880. Markets now await US CPI data out today which is predicted to show headline inflation rising to 2.7% from 2.6%. Earlier US Non-Farm Payroll increased 227,000 in November more than the 214,000 we were expecting improving the big dollar. Support on the chart at 0.5870 has turned to resistance, the kiwi may struggle to climb above this area.

Current Level: 0.5850
Support: 0.5760
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5820 – 0.5915

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended its run higher to 0.9125 (1.0960) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the weakest performing currency on the main board this week. Aussie Retail Sales came in favourable Monday lifting the AUD, but it has been all downhill since. The cross is touching a 9-week high this morning. Next week’s Australian unemployment and RBA cash rate announcement is our focus with no change predicted from 4.35%.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9115 AUDNZD 1.0958

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9066- 0.9130 AUDNZD 1.0952- 1.1029