USD

After decent moves in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross in recent weeks the cross looks to have taken a breather around the 0.6170 (1.6210) area. A “head and shoulders” pattern is emerging on the chart suggesting a move back towards 0.6045 (1.6540), but first the pair will need to clear the 0.6130 (1.6320) area. However, any further strength in the EUR may need to come from French political stability as the French government looms close to collapse.

Current Level: 0.6172
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6045
Last Weeks Range: 0.6132- 0.6248

The British Pound (GBP) extended its run against the Australian Dollar (AUD) off the weekly open reaching 0.5100 (1.9600) Monday before coming under pressure into Tuesday. UK Manufacturing came in below forecast, the Purchasing Managers Index PMI at 48.0 in November down from 48.6 in October taking the cross back to 0.5130 (1.9500).  Calendar focus this week comes in the form of Australian GDP q/q with a big read expected around 0.5% in the September quarter. Growth has been declining since the 4Q of 2022 so this will be welcomed news. We could see a rebound towards 0.5150 (1.9430)

Current Level: 1.9546
Resistance: 1.9700
Support: 1.9340
Last Weeks Range: 1.9227- 1.9542

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) managed to hold most of last week’s gains post the RBNZ cut of 50 points to 4.25%. Coming off the 0.5570 (1.7950) zone the EUR retreated to 0.5620 (1.7800) before drifting back to consolidate around 0.5585 (1.7900). Further NZD support closed the week at 0.5605 (1.7840). French political carnage has certainly caused notable weight on the EUR over recent days. We expect a runup to 0.5625 (1.7780) before the weekly close. ECB’s Lagarde speaks tomorrow.

Current Level: 1.7873
Resistance: 1.8230
Support: 1.7670
Last Weeks Range: 1.7808 – 1.8038

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) managed to hold most of last week’s gains post the RBNZ cut of 50 points to 4.25%. Coming off the 0.5570 (1.7950) zone the EUR retreated to 0.5620 (1.7800) before drifting back to consolidate around 0.5585 (1.7900). Further NZD support closed the week at 0.5605 (1.7840). French political carnage has certainly caused notable weight on the EUR over recent days. We expect a runup to 0.5625 (1.7780) before the weekly close. ECB’s Lagarde speaks tomorrow.

Current Level: 0.5595
Support: 0.5485
Resistance: 0.5660
Last week’s range: 0.5543- 0.5615

This cross has been directionless over the last 3-5 weeks not really sure where it wants to go. The British Pound (GBP) pushed higher off Monday’s open to 0.4635 (2.1575) only to retreat to 0.4660 (2.1470) in the following hours. Short term support lies at 0.4630 (2.1600) with resistance at 0.4665 (1.1440). Both Central bank governors speak today hopefully to spark life into this cross. The most likely scenario we see happening is a break past channel support at current price around 0.4640 (2.1550) signalling further support for the GBP.

Current Level: 2.1551
Resistance: 2.1840
Support: 2.1420
Last Weeks Range: 2.1361- 2.1607

This cross has been directionless over the last 3-5 weeks not really sure where it wants to go. The British Pound (GBP) pushed higher off Monday’s open to 0.4635 (2.1575) only to retreat to 0.4660 (2.1470) in the following hours. Short term support lies at 0.4630 (2.1600) with resistance at 0.4665 (1.1440). Both Central bank governors speak today hopefully to spark life into this cross. The most likely scenario we see happening is a break past channel support at current price around 0.4640 (2.1550) signalling further support for the GBP.

Current Level: 0.4640
Resistance: 0.4670
Support: 0.4580
Last Weeks Range: 0.4628- 0.4681

Early Monday support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) was short lived with price bouncing off 0.9065 (1.1030) to 0.9110 (1.0980). Mid last week price dived out of the “hot” zone between 0.9020 (1.1090) and 0.9110 (1.0980) reaching 0.8945 (1.1180), but this move wasn’t to hold bouncing off the July low back into the familiar “rangy” ground. Earlier the RBNZ cut rates to 4.25% and will do so again 25-50 points at the next meeting in Feb 2025. Today’s Aussie GDP q/q should print favourably around 0.5% for the September quarter giving the AUD added puff. We expect the kiwi to head into Christmas under pressure.

Current Level: 1.1022
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.0980
Last Weeks Range: 1.0989 – 1.1168

Early Monday support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) was short lived with price bouncing off 0.9065 (1.1030) to 0.9110 (1.0980). Mid last week price dived out of the “hot” zone between 0.9020 (1.1090) and 0.9110 (1.0980) reaching 0.8945 (1.1180), but this move wasn’t to hold bouncing off the July low back into the familiar “rangy” ground. Earlier the RBNZ cut rates to 4.25% and will do so again 25-50 points at the next meeting in Feb 2025. Today’s Aussie GDP q/q should print favourably around 0.5% for the September quarter giving the AUD added puff. We expect the kiwi to head into Christmas under pressure.

Current Level: 0.9066
Resistance: 0.9110
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8954 – 0.9100

In the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) dropping the cash rate half a cent to 4.25% the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been reasonable steady against the US Dollar (USD) pushing higher off 0.5800 style levels to reach 0.5925 at the weekly close. This week’s action has seen the kiwi drop back a little on renewed demand for the greenback with Trump’s warning to the “BRICS” countries against a competing currency to the US Dollar. Adding to the NZD woes was US Manufacturing data which came in above expectations for November, however the industry could encounter uncertainty leading into the new Govt with tariffs in question. The long-term trend in the cross is still very much to the downside. We suggest taking any spikes buying USD.

Current Level: 0.5880
Support: 0.5815
Resistance: 0.5930
Last week’s range: 0.5796 – 0.5928