USD

Last week’s long positions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross have been unwound this week with the kiwi giving back gains from 0.4565 (2.1900)  levels to 0.4540 (2.2030) this morning. A big part of this will be the RBNZ cash rate tomorrow, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates 50 points to 3.75%. What will be interesting is the ongoing position by the RBNZ and whether they will maintain or get more aggressive for the remainder of 2025. Currently we only have 100 points priced in. Tomorrow’s UK Inflation could tick higher to 2.8% in January from 2.5% y/y and could spike the Pound on the release.

Current Level: 0.4538
Resistance: 0.4565
Support: 0.4470
Last Weeks Range: 0.4509- 0.4580

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits around the lower band of the recent trendline support against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at 0.9020 (1.1080) this morning with markets awaiting both central bank interest rate announcement this week. The RBA is first up later today and could release a hawkish policy tone with a 25-point cut. The RBA has maintained the rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023. Tomorrow the RBNZ will also cut rates 50 points to 3.75% with a small chance of a 75-point cut. The policy divergence will be the telling factor with the RBNZ predicted to be downbeat (dovish) around 2025 incoming data predictions implying a more aggressive easing plan. If we are correct this could send the NZD/AUD well into the high 80’s.

Current Level: 1.1084
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1030
Last Weeks Range: 1.1076 – 1.1142

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits around the lower band of the recent trendline support against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at 0.9020 (1.1080) this morning with markets awaiting both central bank interest rate announcement this week. The RBA is first up later today and could release a hawkish policy tone with a 25-point cut. The RBA has maintained the rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023. Tomorrow the RBNZ will also cut rates 50 points to 3.75% with a small chance of a 75-point cut. The policy divergence will be the telling factor with the RBNZ predicted to be downbeat (dovish) around 2025 incoming data predictions implying a more aggressive easing plan. If we are correct this could send the NZD/AUD well into the high 80’s.

Current Level: 0.9015
Resistance: 0.9065
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.8975 – 0.9028

After a shaky start to the week with the US holiday creating thin trading conditions the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has managed to hold gains made last week consolidating around the 0.5740 area. Soft US Retail Sales generated bids for the NZD along with a jump in dairy prices. Currently the cross in trading just off the yearly high of 0.5750 and looks like it could retest the 18 Dec high circa 0.5790. This week’s main news comes in the form of the RBNZ cash rate announcement and statement. A cut to 3.75% is widely predicted with a small chance we could see a 75-point shift. Most of this expectation is largely baked into the current price however we could still see a significant shift lower around the announcement. Buyers of USD should consider these levels and take out “risks” before Wednesday RBNZ.

Current Level: 0.5727
Support: 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5780
Last week’s range: 0.5599 – 0.5736

The Euro (EUR) reached 0.5955 (1.6790) Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after weekend tariff news spiked the EUR, in fact the likely scenario was a fall in the AUD. This level never held with the AUD roaring back to trade at the weekly open of 0.5170 (1.6620)  Aussie Retail Sales which came in better than expected was largely overlooked Monday. The ongoing distress could spell further downside pressures on the RBA – they may be forced to cut rates more aggressively this year.

Current Level: 1.6619
Resistance: 1.6760
Support: 1.6540
Last Weeks Range: 1.6599- 1.6779

The Euro (EUR) reached 0.5955 (1.6790) Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after weekend tariff news spiked the EUR, in fact the likely scenario was a fall in the AUD. This level never held with the AUD roaring back to trade at the weekly open of 0.5170 (1.6620)  Aussie Retail Sales which came in better than expected was largely overlooked Monday. The ongoing distress could spell further downside pressures on the RBA – they may be forced to cut rates more aggressively this year.

Current Level: 0.6017
Resistance: 0.6045
Support: 0.5965
Last Weeks Range: 0.5959- 0.6024

A “risk off’ tone Monday saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) fall against the British Pound (GBP) to reach 0.4960 (2.0150) a fresh 2025 low in the wake of fresh US tariff wars extending last week’s declines from the 0.5060 (1.9760) area. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet Thursday night and are widely predicted to cut their interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50% with the vote expected to be fairly unanimous. Markets have prices in 3 further cuts for 2025 but with inflation risks on the high side we may see the central bank signal a 4th cut this year. We may see the Pound lose ground towards the 50-day MA around 0.5025 (1.9900) levels.

Current Level: 1.9992
Resistance: 2.0220
Support: 1.9700
Last Weeks Range: 1.9760- 2.0016

We have entered the 5th week in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) doing nothing of note. Moves have continued to trade sideways since the start of 2025 between the range of 0.5415 (1.8470) and 0.5470 (1.8280). Weekend trade war news sent the cross to 0.5465 (1.8300) to 0.5405 (1.8500) but in early Tuesday the pair is back in the safe house around 0.5435 (1.8400) numbers. Fears are out there for President Trump to target the Eurozone in time may keep the EUR bids down. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data releases with a rise to unemployment of 5.1% expected.

Current Level: 1.8378
Resistance: 1.8450
Support: 1.8320
Last Weeks Range: 1.8345 – 1.8491

We have entered the 5th week in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) doing nothing of note. Moves have continued to trade sideways since the start of 2025 between the range of 0.5415 (1.8470) and 0.5470 (1.8280). Weekend trade war news sent the cross to 0.5465 (1.8300) to 0.5405 (1.8500) but in early Tuesday the pair is back in the safe house around 0.5435 (1.8400) numbers. Fears are out there for President Trump to target the Eurozone in time may keep the EUR bids down. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data releases with a rise to unemployment of 5.1% expected.

Current Level: 0.5441
Support: 0.5420
Resistance: 0.5460
Last week’s range: 0.5408- 0.5451