The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rally against the Euro (EUR) extending moves 2 straight weeks to 0.6075 (1.6460), a 4% shift off early August levels. Earlier eurozone trade surplus surprised to the topside helping to boost the EUR for a bit before the Aussie retained momentum. On the calendar this week is eurozone manufacturing and the Jackson Hole Symposium which could throw up surprises.
Current Level: 0.6070
Resistance: 0.6170
Support: 0.5990
Last Weeks Range: 0.5971- 0.6052
The Australian Dollar AUD) finished the week well recovering off 0.5130 (1.9500) area to close at 0.5155 (1.9400) before extending gains Monday to reach 0.5185 (1.9290) as it gathers momentum into Tuesday. Data out in the UK hasn’t been completely convincing of late with GDP for the month of July coming in lower at 0.6% and Retail Sales also disappointing at 0.5% for July. In contrast the RBA has no plans to cut rates with upside risk to inflation while closely correlated commodity prices continue to extend gains. UK Manufacturing is Thursday. 0.5290 (1.8900) is the next target.
Current Level: 1.9305
Resistance: 1.9750
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9318- 1.9523
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned to 0.5520 (1.8120) from 0.5440 (1.8390) after last week’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 5.5% to 5.25% as risk markets improved. 4-week resistance at 0.5540 (1.8060) is the kiwi’s next target, a breakthrough this level could see further buyers push the pair to the long-term level at 0.5600 (1.7860). On the docket this week is French and German Manufacturing and Services data and later NZ retail Sales, both prints are predicted to show poor results.
Current Level: 1.8115
Resistance: 1.8370
Support: 1.8070
Last Weeks Range: 1.8066 – 1.8391
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned to 0.5520 (1.8120) from 0.5440 (1.8390) after last week’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 5.5% to 5.25% as risk markets improved. 4-week resistance at 0.5540 (1.8060) is the kiwi’s next target, a breakthrough this level could see further buyers push the pair to the long-term level at 0.5600 (1.7860). On the docket this week is French and German Manufacturing and Services data and later NZ retail Sales, both prints are predicted to show poor results.
Current Level: 0.5520
Support: 0.5445
Resistance: 0.5534
Last week’s range: 0.5437- 0.5535
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push back from last week’s 0.4650 (2.1500) against the British Pound (GBP) moving back to 0.4710 (2.1240) after risk markets support the kiwi. UK Retail Sales came in weaker than predicted at 0.5% for the month of July after 0.6% was expected amid a strong “risk on” mood developing. With further cuts form the RBNZ we expect the NZD to struggle towards 0.4740 (2.1100) this week. UK Manufacturing prints Thursday and NZ Retail Sales Friday on the docket.
Current Level: 2.1231
Resistance: 2.1500
Support: 2.1100
Last Weeks Range: 2.1137- 2.1505
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push back from last week’s 0.4650 (2.1500) against the British Pound (GBP) moving back to 0.4710 (2.1240) after risk markets support the kiwi. UK Retail Sales came in weaker than predicted at 0.5% for the month of July after 0.6% was expected amid a strong “risk on” mood developing. With further cuts form the RBNZ we expect the NZD to struggle towards 0.4740 (2.1100) this week. UK Manufacturing prints Thursday and NZ Retail Sales Friday on the docket.
Current Level: 0.4710
Resistance: 0.4740
Support: 0.4650
Last Weeks Range: 0.4650- 0.4731
Since last week’s RBNZ cut from 5.50% to 5.25% the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross hasn’t done a whole lot sitting around the 0.9080 (1.1015) area over the past few days. We are quite surprised to see the kiwi hold these levels given the overall strength in the AUD with extending highs in commodities, and an unwillingness by the RBA to change policy based on upside risks to inflation. RBA monetary minutes form the last RBA release is later today and should confirm the banks hawkish position. Fib markers suggest technically the pair could struggle to breach .9070 (1.1030) for now. However, if risk sentiment holds positive this should assist the AUD more than the kiwi.
Current Level: 1.0992
Resistance: 1.1135
Support: 1.0940
Last Weeks Range: 1.0900 – 1.1056
Since last week’s RBNZ cut from 5.50% to 5.25% the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross hasn’t done a whole lot sitting around the 0.9080 (1.1015) area over the past few days. We are quite surprised to see the kiwi hold these levels given the overall strength in the AUD with extending highs in commodities, and an unwillingness by the RBA to change policy based on upside risks to inflation. RBA monetary minutes form the last RBA release is later today and should confirm the banks hawkish position. Fib markers suggest technically the pair could struggle to breach .9070 (1.1030) for now. However, if risk sentiment holds positive this should assist the AUD more than the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.9092
Resistance: 0.9140
Support: 0.8980
Last Weeks Range: 0.9044 – 0.9147
US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in hot Friday with punters more positive around pending economic conditions in the US. This however didn’t help the US Dollar (USD) any extending declines into the weekly close to 0.6050. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has welcomed further “risk on” sentiment Monday rising to 0.6115 into early Tuesday trading. US Equity markets and commodity prices remain elevated. As markets increase bets on the Fed cutting rates in September this could undermine the big dollar in the weeks to come as punters turn away from buying treasury bonds. It’s a quiet week on the economic docket for the cross with only US Manufacturing data and NZ retail Sales to focus on. Buying USD above 0.6100 represents extremely good buying right now with big picture moves predicted to depreciate the kiwi in time.
Current Level: 0.6116
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6170
Last week’s range: 0.5973- 0.6082
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained on the British Pound (GBP) into Wednesday to 0.4730 (2.1135) but couldn’t hold here. The RBNZ cut the official cash rate from 5.5% to 5.25%, the first cut in 4 years. A surprise to most in the markets but not us, as we called for a cut in the August meet some time back. More cuts are expected in the October and November central bank meetings, the central bank saying with inflation at 3.3% and picked to dip lower over the coming months, inflation will be back within their 1-3% target zone. The 50% fib zone at 0.4650 (2.1500) may offer relief for the kiwi on the downside, however with prior low at 0.4565 (2.19) may end being retested in the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4650 GBPNZD 2.1505
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4650- 0.4731 GBPNZD 2.1136- 2.1503