NZD

The November/December bull trend in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) ended in late December bouncing hard off 0.6200 (1.6140), with the Euro making gains back to 0.6080 (1.6450). The Euro received a boost from ECB’s Lane who said interest rates were not something of consideration in the short term. Germany, the European powerhouse, is likely to take some time to return to decent growth after succumbing to general economic weakness in 2023. The economy contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter with weak industrial production and Retails Sales reports. Aussie jobs data releases Thursday on the docket, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9%.

Current Level: 0.6078
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.5950
Last Weeks Range: 0.6075 – 0.6150

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has kicked off 2024 underperforming against the British Pound (GBP). After making it through to 0.5380 (1.8590) late December it’s been all Pound action. UK GDP wasn’t exactly favourable dropping the GBP for a while last week together with a poor Industrial Production read. The Pound recovered back to early December levels around 0.5235 (1.9100) and now looks to target the October level at 0.5175 (1.9330). On the calendar we have Inflation data printing tomorrow expected to click lower off 3.9%.

Current Level: 1.9113
Resistance: 1.9300
Support: 1.8900
Last Weeks Range: 1.8901 – 1.9117

It’s been a quiet few weeks of economic releases in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with the first significant piece of economic data to be released since mid-December being next week’s NZ CPI and ECB cash rates reports. The kiwi made gains through November to year end coming from 0.5470 (1.8280) to reach 0.5755 (1.7380) just prior to Christmas before giving back the advantage. We have certainly seen a pullback of risk in 2024 the Euro reaching 1.7700 (0.5650) overnight.

Current Level: 1.7677
Resistance: 1.7700
Support: 1.7420
Last Weeks Range: 1.7487 – 1.7645

It’s been a quiet few weeks of economic releases in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with the first significant piece of economic data to be released since mid-December being next week’s NZ CPI and ECB cash rates reports. The kiwi made gains through November to year end coming from 0.5470 (1.8280) to reach 0.5755 (1.7380) just prior to Christmas before giving back the advantage. We have certainly seen a pullback of risk in 2024 the Euro reaching 1.7700 (0.5650) overnight.

Current Level: 0.5657
Support: 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5667 – 0.5718

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.4990 (2.005) against the British Pound late in 2023 the May high before falling back sharply as 2024 got underway. Boosted by risk off flows the Pound has extended gains to 0.4860 (2.0560) this morning. UK GDP has fallen by 0.2% in the 3 months to November compared with the 3 months to August sending the GBP broadly lower following the news. Although the November figure came in better than forecast the past 3 months have revealed a larger than anticipated economic contraction. Governor Bailey speaks later today prior to tomorrow’s CPI y/y data- predicted to print at 3.8% down from 3.9% in November. Trend is firmly still with the GBP.

Current Level: 2.0550
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.000
Last Weeks Range: 2.0322- 2.0492

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.4990 (2.005) against the British Pound late in 2023 the May high before falling back sharply as 2024 got underway. Boosted by risk off flows the Pound has extended gains to 0.4860 (2.0560) this morning. UK GDP has fallen by 0.2% in the 3 months to November compared with the 3 months to August sending the GBP broadly lower following the news. Although the November figure came in better than forecast the past 3 months have revealed a larger than anticipated economic contraction. Governor Bailey speaks later today prior to tomorrow’s CPI y/y data- predicted to print at 3.8% down from 3.9% in November. Trend is firmly still with the GBP.

Current Level: 0.4866
Resistance: 0.5000
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4880 – 0.4920

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came into 2024 around 0.9275 (1.0780) after bouncing around this area for most of December. The cross reached 0.9235 (1.0830) before going on a run to 0.9345 (1.0700) at the close of last week. With talk of further expectations the RBNZ will cut interest rates earlier than later the kiwi dropped back towards 0.9295 (1.0760) this morning. Last week’s Aussie CPI y/y report confirmed a reasonable drop to 4.3% from 4.9%. It’s too early to say the RBA may cut rates earlier than planned but it’s a step in the right direction. Fundamentals suggest we could see prices in the pair fall back to retest support at 0.9260 (1.0800).

Current Level: 1.0740
Resistance: 1.0940
Support: 1.0660
Last Weeks Range: 1.0698 – 1.0771

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came into 2024 around 0.9275 (1.0780) after bouncing around this area for most of December. The cross reached 0.9235 (1.0830) before going on a run to 0.9345 (1.0700) at the close of last week. With talk of further expectations the RBNZ will cut interest rates earlier than later the kiwi dropped back towards 0.9295 (1.0760) this morning. Last week’s Aussie CPI y/y report confirmed a reasonable drop to 4.3% from 4.9%. It’s too early to say the RBA may cut rates earlier than planned but it’s a step in the right direction. Fundamentals suggest we could see prices in the pair fall back to retest support at 0.9260 (1.0800).

Current Level: 0.9303
Resistance: 0.9380
Support: 0.9140
Last Weeks Range: 0.9284 – 0.9347

Thin Christmas and New Year markets along with US Holiday trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross meant we haven’t had big moves of late. The pair mostly pivoted around the 0.6250 levels through to Monday when we saw a slide in the kiwi down to 0.6180 mostly based on central bank divergence. Global themes have also started to weigh on the NZD with Gaza conflicts and energy prices not to mention a poor Chinese growth read. Interest rate cuts are now starting to come into conversation more with predictions the RBNZ may have 100 points priced in for 2024.The New Zealand economy is expected to cool further in the first half of 2024. Thursday’s US Retail Sales for December should be decent.

Current level: 0.6169
Support: 0.6170
Resistance: 0.6360
Last week’s range: 0.6194-0.6276