interbank midrate

Early weeks pull back by the Australian Dollar (AUD) from 0.5170 (1.9340) to 0.5220 (1.9150) against the British Pound (GBP) continued into Thursday with improved risk trading and soft UK manufacturing data. The Pound has since recovered Friday to 0.5200 (1.9220) after the Federal Reserve leaned a little more hawkish. Aussie jobs data came in hot with nearly 40,000 people entering the workforce in May. Unemployment dipped to 4.0% as markets were expecting with any hope of the RBA cutting rates this year gone on these solid numbers. Next week’s docket sees RBA and BoE rate announcements.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5193 GBPAUD 1.9256

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5170- 0.5223 GBPAUD 1.9146- 1.9342

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got hammered Friday dropping to 0.5170 (1.9340) at the weekly close against the British Pound (GBP) off the back of Fed job’s numbers and ‘big” dollar remand. The bear run remains our focus technically from the mid-May high at 0.5285 (1.8920), we see the GBP well supported on dips and should remain in control for a while. On the docket this week is Aussie employment data with numbers expected to come in light.

Current Level: 0.5182
Support: 0.5155
Resistance: 0.5230
Last week’s range: 0.5173- 0.5238

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recorded a fresh 5 week low of 0.5195 (1.9250) against the British Pound (GBP) before pulling back to 0.5215 (1.9170) numbers early Friday. UK Composite PMI’s rose to 54.7 from 52.5 the previous month, the fastest pace over the last 2 years however, with a contracting economy- GDP falling from 5.0% to 1.3% over a matter of months we expect worrying times ahead. Meanwhile Australian GDP came in at 0.1% for the first quarter, softer than the 0.2% markets were expecting. RBA governor Bullock saying if inflation remains sticky the central bank may need to raise rates again. We expect the cross to retest 0.5235 (1.9100) levels based on Fib analysis.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5210 GBPAUD 1.9193

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5192- 0.5238 GBPAUD 1.9091- 1.9259

The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved over the week to 0.5225 (1.9140) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling back towards 0.5200 (1.9240). Australian Retail Sales published down on expectation at 0.1% vs 0.3%, sending the AUD higher on the news before CPI y/y came in at 3.6% a surprise higher than the 3.4% markets were expecting. The RBA wont hike again but their rate cut campaign has been extended, with rates not predicted to be cut until early to mid-2025. Bouncing off the 50-day moving average the cross should extend lower retesting 0.5200 (1.9230) into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5209 GBPAUD 1.9175

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5196- 0.5225 GBPAUD 1.9136- 1.9242

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gave back 3 weeks of gains over the week reversing off 0.5280 (1.8940) to trade back at 0.5200 (1.9220) into Friday. The Aussie has been the worst performing currency on the main board this week. The RBA minutes confirmed the central bank considered raising rates at the May 7th meeting based on inflation staying above their target range for longer. UK CPI also pushed the cross lower with CPI coming in at 2.3% y/y higher than the 2.1% expected but dipping from March’s 3.2% the lowest level since July 2021. Downward pressure on energy prices the main cause along with food. The result will put pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates at their June meeting.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5195 GBPAUD 1.9249

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5197- 0.5281 GBPAUD 1.8935- 1.9240