interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.6798 Friday coming within a whisker of the yearly high. Monday morning was a different story as markets figured out the aftermath of the Trump assignation attempt. Risk flow turned down with the safe haven US Dollar (USD) sought. The cross dropping to 0.6720 early Tuesday. US Retail Sales published at 0.0% although the headline consensus was for a drop of    -0.3% in the month of June, US consumers are still spending despite signs of slowing in the economy. Tomorrow’s Australian employment data predicted at 4.1% should be bearish for the Aussie.

Current Level: 0.6730
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6570
Last Weeks Range: 0.6723- 0.6797

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6790 this morning but failed to hold this level slipping back to 0.6755 at smoko. US Inflation was softer than expected weakening the USD overnight with June’s print at -0.1% compared to 0.1% expected. Year on year also ticked lower to 3.0% from 3.3% and below the predicted 3.1%. Bets have risen that the Federal Reserve will cut their interest rate in September. The Aussie has also done well of late from recovering commodity and equity prices. With the RBA one of the only G10 nations to not instigate rate cuts we could see further rises in the currency.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6763

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6723- 0.6797

The Australian Dollar (AUD) soared past daily resistance at 0.6695 mid-week to reach 0.6730 this morning against the US Dollar (USD) as the greenback comes under pressure. Sticky Aussie inflation is still causing concerns for the RBA with Retail Sales coming in at 0.6% for May above expectations of 0.3% and 0.1% in April. Also of concern is the real possibility the RBA will raise rates from 4.35% at their August meeting. On the other hand, the US PMI data for June came in weaker dragging the greenback down. Non-Farm Payroll is tonight with anything higher than 191,000 new jobs added to boost the USD.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6732

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6633- 0.6733

The Australian Dollar (AUD) looked good Monday pushing up to 0.6690 from 0.6620 areas Friday against the US Dollar (USD) but has since dropped back to the bottom of the bull channel to 0.6650 as we head into Tuesday sessions. Rallying metal prices, gold, silver and steel have all helped the AUD higher. RBA minutes could reveal risks the central bank could hike interest rates by 25 points in the coming monetary policy meeting on August 6th with the recent “cost of living” dilemma. All eyes later in the week will be on US Non-Farm Payroll  and unemployment with expectations employment should moderate.

Current Level: 0.6648
Support: 0.6630
Resistance: 0.6700
Last week’s range: 0.6618- 0.6688

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gapped lower off Monday’s open against the US Dollar (USD) but managed to recover to 0.6660 levels this morning. After the run up from the low at 0.6360 levels the pair has consolidated over the past 5 weeks pivoting around 0.6650. With the RBA monetary policy stance offering upside bias to the Aussie we expect momentum should remain for a while. Retesting the 0.6700 top of the recent range is our view this week, certainly a daily close above this level should signal further big picture trend north. Australian CPI y/y prints tomorrow with expectations around 3.8% ticking higher from 3.6%. This should bring about further “higher for longer” and possible hike speak from the RBA.

Current Level: 0.6654
Support: 0.6570
Resistance: 0.6700
Last week’s range: 0.6584- 0.6678