interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed off the early week low of 0.6700 against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6725 this morning, consolidating around these levels after sliding from 0.6940 over the last fortnight. Its tough to know if we will see further declines amid this bear trend or see the Aussie recover losses. Improved sentiment out of China will be certainly helping as well as a pickup in US equities and recovering commodity prices. Fed’s Waller commented saying recent US inflation was disappointed with the Fed now needing to make critical decisions on the pace of cuts while maintaining caution. Waller said the economy is still on a solid footing and may not be slowing as much as they hope. Aussie unemployment prints Thursday is expected to come in at no change from 4.2%.

Current Level: 0.6726
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6700
Last Weeks Range: 0.6698- 0.6809

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended declines into Thursday to 0.6712 against the US Dollar (USD). The stronger greenback has been outperforming of late due to a “risk off” tone. Chinese stocks have tumbled over scepticism over Beijing’s stimulus measures, the biggest drop in 4 years falling over 7%. This has had an impact on the Aussie as it undermines the currency. RBA’s deputy governor Hauser said yesterday at the central bank minutes that the bank will act as soon as inflation stops being high and sticky. Currently the RBA’s inflation sits at 3.8% much higher than their 2-3% target range. We expect further momentum in the cross to the downside.

Current Level: 0.6718
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6640
Last Weeks Range: 0.6784- 0.6947

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been a top performer across the main board of currencies this week based on the only central back looking to delay rates until early next year, this has created divergence in currency movements. However, we have still seen a slide to 0.6830 over the week but the drops have been well supported compared to other currencies which have freefallen. Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles into Israel earlier in the week, Israel’s Netanyahu vowing to fight back with force. Risks of full-blown war in the region are real with market appetite to take on “risk” products poor. Attention now is with US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) tomorrow morning, anything softer than forecast could highlight the need by the Fed to cut rates deeper. Downside risks in the AUD remain.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6843

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6828- 0.6941

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended higher Monday reaching 0.6940 against the US Dollar (USD), a new 2024 high. The 4th week straight the AUD has outperformed the greenback. This week’s US non-farm payroll numbers Friday holds the key to ongoing fed policy reviews with predictions the release could be much worse than markets are expecting. This would give way too much “deeper” rate cuts with labour markets showing weakness. At the moment we have priced in 75 points of cuts at the November 8 meeting. With the RBA not expected to cut until early in 2025 we should see the cross retest the magical 0.7000 mark as early as this week.

Current Level: 0.6917
Resistance: 0.7000
Support: 0.6800
Last Weeks Range: 0.6794- 0.6936

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher to start the week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6890- the 3rd week it has outperformed the greenback from the low of 0.6625 in early September. The RBA held their cash rate as we expected at 4.35% Tuesday as widely expected initially sending the AUD lower before markets pushed the antipodean currency higher post the central bank statement releasing. The RBA maintained their “hawkish” stance by saying the labour market remains strong and inflation still has a way to go. Also boosting the AUD was a massive Chinese economic boost to revive household spending and real estate demand. Today’s Australian inflation read y/y 1.30pm NZT should drop from 3.8% and will give us more swings in the pair. Taking out this currency risk by buying USD prior would be a good plan.

Current Level: 0.6895
Resistance: 0.67000
Support: 0.6800
Last Weeks Range: 0.6688- 0.6838