interbank midrate

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its climb over the week against the British Pound (GBP) initially reaching 0.5190 (1.9260) in the first wave before pushing higher to 0.5230 (1.9120) in early Friday. To be honest it’s performed very well as market sentiment drowned in a sea of geopolitical risk aversion. The only data release over the week has been Australian Retail Sales which came in hot at 0.7% compared to 0.4% forecast for August supporting the AUD. We favour a push back by the GBP with a retest to 0.5145 (1.9430) predicted.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5212 GBPAUD 1.9186

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5157- 0.5229 GBPAUD 1.9123- 1.9390

 

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended higher Monday reaching 0.6940 against the US Dollar (USD), a new 2024 high. The 4th week straight the AUD has outperformed the greenback. This week’s US non-farm payroll numbers Friday holds the key to ongoing fed policy reviews with predictions the release could be much worse than markets are expecting. This would give way too much “deeper” rate cuts with labour markets showing weakness. At the moment we have priced in 75 points of cuts at the November 8 meeting. With the RBA not expected to cut until early in 2025 we should see the cross retest the magical 0.7000 mark as early as this week.

 

Current Level: 0.6917
Resistance: 0.7000
Support: 0.6800
Last Weeks Range: 0.6794- 0.6936

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Last week’s Australian inflation read came in at 2.7% y/y as markets were predicting sending the AUD higher against the British Pound (GBP) to close the week circa 0.5165 (1.9360) levels. Its still not enough for the RBA to consider cutting rates just yet, what’s interesting in the CPI number is a drop of -17% in electricity based on the govt providing rebates. So, the CPI number could end up rising back above 3.0% once the rebates have finished at the end of 2025. The AUD climbed to 0.5185 (1.9285) resistance early this morning before dropping back to 0.5170 (1.9350)

 

Current Level: 0.5169
Support: 0.5200
Resistance: 0.5190
Last week’s range: 0.5110- 0.5174

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher to start the week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6890- the 3rd week it has outperformed the greenback from the low of 0.6625 in early September. The RBA held their cash rate as we expected at 4.35% Tuesday as widely expected initially sending the AUD lower before markets pushed the antipodean currency higher post the central bank statement releasing. The RBA maintained their “hawkish” stance by saying the labour market remains strong and inflation still has a way to go. Also boosting the AUD was a massive Chinese economic boost to revive household spending and real estate demand. Today’s Australian inflation read y/y 1.30pm NZT should drop from 3.8% and will give us more swings in the pair. Taking out this currency risk by buying USD prior would be a good plan.

Current Level: 0.6895
Resistance: 0.67000
Support: 0.6800
Last Weeks Range: 0.6688- 0.6838

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

It has been a volatile start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with prices very shifty. UK Manufacturing Monday printed below expectations at 51.5 compared to 52.3 sent the GBP lower to 1.9450 (0.5140) off 1.9530 (0.5120) before reversing losses back to  1.9560 (0.5110) towards yesterday’s RBA policy meeting. The Australian Central Bank left rates unchanged at 4.35% as we predicted and held tight on their “hawkish” tone blaming high inflation and a healthy labour market. This bought AUD buyers back sending prices to 0.5140 (1.9460) in early morning trading. Aussie CPI y/y prints later today expected to dip from 3.8% to around 2.8%- anything higher than 2.8% should rally the Aussie further.

Current Level: 0.5136
Support: 0.5110
Resistance: 0.5170
Last week’s range: 0.5101- 0.5155

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left monetary policy on hold at 5.00% last night as expected but members were split over the decision 1-8. Governor Bailey saying they should be able to cut rates “gradually” overtime. The British Pound (GBP) was firmer post the announcement kicking off 1.9400 (0.5155) to 1.9500 (0.5130) over the last few hours. Earlier the Australian jobs data improved the AUD on better than expected August numbers with 47,500 more people entering the jobs market compared to 26,000 expected. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. Next week’s RBA cash rate will remain at 4.35% and should bring buyers back into AUD.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5127 GBPAUD 1.9504

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5101- 0.5155 GBPAUD 1.9396- 1.9603

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

We have seen a slew of economic releases publish over the past couple of days moving the Australian Dollar eventually higher to 0.6830 into Friday sessions against the US Dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve cut rates yesterday morning by 50 points to 5.00% surprising markets based 25-point forecasts. The AUD shot lower weirdly to post 0.6740 before Australian jobs data later in the day pushed the AUD back towards 0.6830 where it should have been earlier. Unemployment numbers were better than predictions and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. As wage growth has remained buoyant this has led to inflation struggling to return to the RBA’s target, this being said the RBA will hold their cash rate at 4.35% next Tuesday. We expect further upside moves to continue to push into fresh yearly highs past 0.6830.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6810

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6688- 0.6838

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week run from 0.6620 levels against the US Dollar (USD) climbing to 0.6750 as we head into Tuesday sessions. The pair is creeping towards the yearly high around 0.6800. 0.6780 is the next level of resistance, we may see some reconciliation around here if it retests over the week. We have a bunch of economic data releasing with the main attraction the Federal Reserve Cash rate and policy statement. The Fed are expected to cut their interest rate 25 points from 5.50% Thursday morning with a small chance of a 50-point cut on the table. Aussie jobs data prints around midday Thursday which will be closely watched with comments being made lately of a possible recession on the cards.

Current Level: 0.6751
Resistance: 0.6830
Support: 0.6650
Last Weeks Range: 0.6621- 0.6732

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

GDP for August in the UK came in light last week at 0.0% compared to 0.2% predicted, this sank the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5130 (1.9500) levels before rebounding at the close of the week. Into Tuesday we see prices slipping for the GBP to 0.5110 (1.9570) as markets await this week’s slew of economic releases. We will get a look at UK CPI tomorrow with expectations of a “no change” 2.20% y/y  before the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate comes out. Up until a few days ago we were expecting a 5.0% no change result, however we are not so sure with a 25% chance of the central bank cutting to 4.75%. The uncertainty could weaken the GBP over the week.

Current Level: 0.5109
Support: 0.5075
Resistance: 0.5170
Last week’s range: 0.5076- 0.5130

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been unable to hold the key level around 0.6750 against the US Dollar (USD) Friday dropping to close out the week at 0.6675. Risk took on water post the release of the US Non-farm Payroll release Friday with the jobs report coming in poor dragging risk currencies lower. Unemployment ticked lower from 4.3% to 4.2% with markets digesting this week’s inflation report and next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy and whether the central bank will only cut 25 points instead of the earlier forecasted 50 points. Odds now of quarter percent cut are now around 75% pending how inflation prints Thursday. Year on year numbers is predicted to come in at 2.6% down from 2.9%, anything north of 2.6% will be a game changer. Action above 0.6700 this week will be challenging.

 

Current Level: 0.6652
Resistance: 0.6700
Support: 0.6620
Last Weeks Range: 0.6684- 0.6794