interbank midrate

In the absence of Australian Data this week the Australian Dollar (AUD) has performed well against the US Dollar (USD). The Aussie pushed higher above 0.6500 levels, the first positive week amid 7 weeks of declines off the back of soft US data. The fed’s reluctance to cut rates quickly could continue to weigh on the AUD along with weak Chinese economic data. We now target next week’s Australian CPI release Wednesday expected to come in at 2.5%.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6510

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6447- 0.6543

The RBA holds firm on interest rates, maintaining inflation remains stubbornly high, attributing much of it to the Government’s spending policies. The AUD has been savaged along with most Western currencies, due to the post-US Election rally, in the US Dollar. This has been tempered by the cautious statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman, but confidence is likely to keep upward pressure on the ‘Big Dollar’.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD .6520

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD .6440 – .6520

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run lower off Monday’s open against the US Dollar (AUD) dropping to 0.6570. A daily close below 0.6500 could signal a greater bearish tone and big dollar strength. How US Inflation Thursday prints will determine how the cross moves with predictions the report could show a rise to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%. Later in the week we also have Aussie jobs data to consider, expectations are for a no change from 4.1% and a drop to the number of employed for October.

Current Level: 0.6574
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6500
Last Weeks Range: 0.6511- 0.6687

Volatile markets during the US Election results sent the Australian Dollar (AUD) to an 8th August low of 0.6510 overnight, the US Dollar (USD) surging higher on a Trump win. Prices in the cross have since recovered to 0.6580 early this morning. The Fed will cut rates tomorrow by 25 points but will tread cautiously going forward with Trump supporting lower taxes and tariffs potentially impacting higher inflation. The Fed is predicted to make 2 more cuts this year with 1 in 2025 before easing in 2026. This now may be up in the air with increased inflationary pressures. Ultimately holding the Aussie lower for longer over the course of the next couple of years.

Current Level: 0.6569
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6500
Last Weeks Range: 0.6536- 0.6609

The Australian Dollar (AUD) came back hard from the long-term low at 0.6540 overnight against the US Dollar (USD) pushing up to 0.6580 in morning trading.
US ADP Jobs data came in stronger than markets were expecting with 233,000 new jobs in October more than the 113,000 expected, the highest read since July 2023 sparking expectations that the Fed may “hold” interest rates at their November 8th meeting. We will get a better look at what the fed are thinking when Non-Farm Payroll and the unemployment rate releases tonight. Next week’s RBA Tuesday will be interesting with mounting pressure for the central bank to start cuts.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6581

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6536- 0.6609

Today’s Australian Inflation data for the third quarter ending September is predicted to print at 2.9% y\y well down from the June quarter’s spike of 3.8% y/y and show a marked drop. Currency positioning around this release could be part of the reason why we have seen recent falls in the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the past while. Meanwhile, in light of the upcoming presidential election mid-November we have seen investors move into the greenback as uncertainty impacts sentiment. A move through 0.6500 (1.5385) looks possible in the coming days and a retest of the  0.6350 (1.5750) level.

Current Level: 0.6558
Resistance: 0.6700
Support: 0.6500
Last Weeks Range: 0.6600- 0.6722