interbank midrate

Today’s Australian Inflation data for the third quarter ending September is predicted to print at 2.9% y\y well down from the June quarter’s spike of 3.8% y/y and show a marked drop. Currency positioning around this release could be part of the reason why we have seen recent falls in the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the past while. Meanwhile, in light of the upcoming presidential election mid-November we have seen investors move into the greenback as uncertainty impacts sentiment. A move through 0.6500 (1.5385) looks possible in the coming days and a retest of the  0.6350 (1.5750) level.

Current Level: 0.6558
Resistance: 0.6700
Support: 0.6500
Last Weeks Range: 0.6600- 0.6722

The RBA has remained ‘STET’ on their monetary policy, although the latest quarterly CPI number (set to be released this coming week), may influence the Central Bank and certainly drive speculation. The AUD has recently slipped below 0.6700, due to US Dollar strength and resurgent US Bond Yields. The RBA reaction to this coming weeks CPI inflation numbers may well determine the future of the AUD/USD.

Current Level: 0.6630
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6500
Last Weeks Range: 0.6612- 0.6716

The AUD has been hit by a relentless rise in the US Dollar reserve, but has performed relatively well, compared to comparable currencies. The reason is the steadfast tight monetary position the RBA has held, in an attempt to stamp out stubbornly high inflation. The relatively good performance of the OZZY, has been due to monetary policy, and this is likely to continue until the RBA sees a creditable turn in the inflation trend line. The AUD trades around 0.6700.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6695

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6656- 0.6744

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed off the early week low of 0.6700 against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6725 this morning, consolidating around these levels after sliding from 0.6940 over the last fortnight. Its tough to know if we will see further declines amid this bear trend or see the Aussie recover losses. Improved sentiment out of China will be certainly helping as well as a pickup in US equities and recovering commodity prices. Fed’s Waller commented saying recent US inflation was disappointed with the Fed now needing to make critical decisions on the pace of cuts while maintaining caution. Waller said the economy is still on a solid footing and may not be slowing as much as they hope. Aussie unemployment prints Thursday is expected to come in at no change from 4.2%.

Current Level: 0.6726
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6700
Last Weeks Range: 0.6698- 0.6809

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended declines into Thursday to 0.6712 against the US Dollar (USD). The stronger greenback has been outperforming of late due to a “risk off” tone. Chinese stocks have tumbled over scepticism over Beijing’s stimulus measures, the biggest drop in 4 years falling over 7%. This has had an impact on the Aussie as it undermines the currency. RBA’s deputy governor Hauser said yesterday at the central bank minutes that the bank will act as soon as inflation stops being high and sticky. Currently the RBA’s inflation sits at 3.8% much higher than their 2-3% target range. We expect further momentum in the cross to the downside.

Current Level: 0.6718
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6640
Last Weeks Range: 0.6784- 0.6947