interbank midrate

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) extended moves higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week to reach 1.9215 (0.5205) in early morning trade. The RBA Hiked their interest rate from 4.10% to 4.35% Tuesday but this weirdly had the opposite effect on the AUD sending the currency lower. Usually, such data as an interest rate hike boosts the currency in question but on this occasion market reactions to sell the Aussie has been strange. The AUD made a very brief snap higher but was soon back at 0.5220 (1.9150) post the release. A retest of the prior low at 0.5180 (1.9300) looks our preferred move over the next few days.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5207 GBPAUD 1.9204

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5204- 0.5270 GBPAUD 1.8974- 1.9214

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

NZ Inflation expectations were revised lower to 2.76% from 2.83% over the next two years with the Cash Rate to stay at 5.50% until Dec 2023 and dip to 4.99% by September 2024. The report also highlighted GDP to be around 1.26% over the next year increasing to 2.15% in two years. Bank of England’s Bailey was on the wires a little less dovish than the Bank of England have been of late saying it was too early to talk about cutting rates. The cross should bounce around these current ranges into the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4821 GBPNZD 2.0742

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4803- 0.4850 GBPNZD 2.0616- 2.0817

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back last week’s gains against the US Dollar (USD) falling hard to 0.6360 this morning. Pockets of recoveries midweek saw the pair hold around 0.6400 for a short time but with markets diverting back to “risk off” flow has been unwound into the greenback. The RBA hiked their interest rate to 4.35% as widely expected to a 12 year high. New governor Bullock said she was ready to hike again if required. Inflation is still too high and has proven more persistent than it was a few months back. The release and post sell off in the Aussie left punters scratching heads as usually hikes attract investors buying the associated currency. Attention now will divert to the Australian wages data publishing next week- a sharp rise in numbers may point to another rate hike in December. We expect the current bear trend to continue into the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6365

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6361- 0.6522

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish tone saw the Pound (GBP) extend Friday’s direction Monday to 0.5235 (1.9100) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before dropping back to 0.5255 (1.9030) It can be said the Bank of England hadn’t considered cutting rates last week with persistence inflation a worry. The vote a 6-3 hold split with the central bank upgrading their inflation forecast. This week’s focus is on today’s RBA cash rate announcement with predictions the RBA will hike to 4.35% from 4.10% ending 4 meetings of holds. This will be the new governor Michele Bullock’s first hike since taking over recently. In theory we should see Aussie strength today, currently 0.5255 (1.9030) pushing higher in the last few hours.

Current Level: 0.5256
Support: 0.5210
Resistance: 0.5280
Last week’s range: 0.5207 – 0.5292

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

0.6480 came and went as we predicted – the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching a 12-week high last week trading to 0.6520 against the US Dollar (USD) rising 2.45% as risk markets enjoyed a selloff in the greenback. Not only did risk trading support upside in the Aussie but a mix of better-than-expected economic data including PMI reads, Retail Sales and a hawkish RBA sent the AUD on a massive bull run. Today’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate announcement is our weekly standout with a hike widely predicted from 4.10% to 4.35%, we expect a push up in the Aussie.

Current Level: 0.6488
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6520
Last week’s range: 0.6312 – 0.6513

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates at 5.25% overnight, the central bank said policy would stay restrictive for some time to combat stubborn inflation. The English Pound (GBP) strengthened off 1.8920 (0.5285) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to reach 1.8980 (0.5270) this morning post the news. The BoE is expected to start cutting rates in the second half of 2024 in line with inflation expectations. On the chart 0.5300 (1.8860) looks safe for now to the low side, next week’s RBA cash rate release will be the test as we contemplate a hike from 4.10% which in turn should give the Aussie buyer support.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5271 GBPAUD 1.8971

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5207- 0.5291 GBPAUD 1.8897-1.9203

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left their benchmark rate unchanged overnight at 5.25% as widely predicted. The central bank said policy would need to be restrictive for a long period of time and chances of further rate hikes are a distinct possibility if inflation pressures persist. The British Pound (GBP) fell from 0.4812 (2.0780) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to reach 0.4850 (2.0615) in early morning trade but was back at 0.4830 (2.0700) as I write. Earlier in the week NZ unemployment came in at 3.9% up from 3.6% sending the kiwi to 0.4770 (2.0975) Looking ahead we have NZs inflation expectations. We expect Pound strength to continue next week with a possible retest of 0.4770 (2.0960)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4833 GBPNZD 2.0691

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4768- 0.4851 GBPNZD 2.0612- 2.0971

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

This week’s wave of risk on flow has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) well moving up to 0.6450 levels against the US Dollar (USD) a 6-week high. US data of late and a dovish Fed have markets pricing in the latest cash rate at 5.5% as a peak. The Fed left rates unchanged overnight, Reserve Bank chairman Powell speaking about how much inflation was slowing rather than highlighting how poor recent growth and data has been. Mixed messages by Powell speaking of rate cuts amid prospects of the economy running hot again and the need to hike more. US stocks and commodity markets rallied over 1.5% post the news. US NFP published tonight and should reflect a slowing jobs market and may rally the AUD further. Looking ahead we have next week’s RBA cash rate announcement with the central bank predicted to raise from 4.10%, I would be surprised if we didn’t see numbers north of 0.6480 over the coming days.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6428

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6313- 0.6455

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Australian Retail Sales boosted the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday against the British Pound (GBP), the cross reaching 0.5260 (1.9020). Early Tuesday the Aussie had pulled back to 0.5240 (1.9090) in what could only be described as weird. With momentum in hand to extend the move, possibly to retest a prior low at 0.5300 (1.8870) in our book, it’s gone the other way. With most signals pointing to a hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meet on 7 November and a hold by the Bank of England (BoE) later this week it’s a little strange for investors and positioning. Adding to the “risk on” tone we also have geopolitical tensions easing in Gaza. We favour a move back to 0.5280 (1.8940) this week.

Current Level: 0.5235
Support: 0.5170
Resistance: 0.5280
Last week’s range: 0.5170 – 0.5258

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Extending moves off last week’s yearly low at 0.6270 the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to claw back losses against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6380 this morning. We would need to see a break above 0.6390 before a new bull trend is confirmed. Risk flow has benefited the Aussie and other risk currencies and products with things improving in Gaza/Israel. The Israel ‘ground offensive” has got underway, Israeli forces now deep into Gaza, the fear being the involvement of USA and Iran, which hasn’t happened yet with fighting limited to Gaza. Markets are viewing this as good news. Earlier Australian Retail Sales printed much better than the 0.3% forecast for September coming in at 0.9% bringing back questions if the RBA will hike interest rates on 7 Nov. The Fed meet Thursday and should hold rates at 5.50%

Current Level: 0.6369
Support: 0.6300
Resistance: 0.6550
Last week’s range: 0.6270 – 0.6399