interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD) took on water for most of the week against the US Dollar (USD) dropping from 0.6680 levels to 0.6525 yesterday. Most of the downside was off the back of poor Aussie GDP, figures showing only a 0.2% rise in the third quarter after 0.5% was predicted. Household consumption has slowed over recent quarters and shows the fallout of higher interest rates on spending. Overnight equity markets have improved, the Nasdaq is up over 1.2% which has helped the AUD back over 0.6600. Non-Farm Payrolls print tomorrow, pushing through 0.6680 will be tough.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6595

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6525- 0.6690

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied late Friday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6670 areas as risk markets continued to dominate moves based on impressive equities and metal prices. The surge to early August highs hasn’t lasted however with US Manufacturing contracting in November coming in at 46.7% worse than market expectations of 47.6% bringing back the AUD to Tuesday. Today’s RBA cash rate will remain unchanged at 4.35% but may signal ongoing attention to stubborn inflation, PMI and Retail Sales data. 3rd quarter data and inflation will be key to February’s policy meeting. Non-Farm Payroll prints Friday and is expected to reflect a rise to unemployment numbers.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6620

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6603- 0.6690

The RBA raised rates under the camouflage of the Melbourne Cup, at their last meeting. Inflationary conditions remain a serious threat to the Australian economy and monetary policy continues to threaten. The interest rate differentials may offer some short-term benefits for the AUD, as the Fed looks to have reached ‘peak inflation’ and may look to cut rates, while the RBA has a bias to raise rates or at least extend the ‘higher for longer’ mantra.

Current Level: 0.6590
Support: 0.6555
Resistance: 0.6625
Last week’s range: 0.656 – 0.6630

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has broken resistance on the upside Monday at 0.6590 against the US Dollar (USD), the key 50% fib level also has also been breached suggesting further momentum could be seen over the coming days/weeks. The next level of interest will be 0.6650. The key standout this week is Aussie CPI y/y with predictions of the number falling from 5.6%, we are not so sure with expectations of late rising following weeks of high energy prices. This is most of the reason why the RBA raised rates to 4.35% earlier this month. If we see inflation come in around 5.6% we could very well see interest rates raised again in the RBA’s December 5 meeting. Certainly, those needing to buy USD should consider, with current prices looking attractive.

Current Level: 0.6614
Support: 0.6300
Resistance: 0.6900
Last week’s range: 0.6520 – 0.6589