interbank midrate

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded in a tight range over the week in thin liquidity pivoting around the 0.5235 (1.9100) area for the most. UK Manufacturing was the only highlight this week printing better than markets were predicting overnight at 46.7 vs 45.0 for October up on September’s 44.8 on the index. Although the data was positive, new orders have decreased 3 months running as the manufacturing sector slows. The news sent the Pound higher from 1.9060 (0.5250) to 1.9135 (0.5225) post the news. Australian monthly y/y CPI Wednesday is our focus with a small drop expected.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5230 GBPAUD 1.9120

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5214- 0.5259 GBPAUD 1.9015- 1.9179

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged higher to reach 0.6585 against the US Dollar (USD) in early week moves but came up against resistance dropping to 0.6520 midweek. Chinese markets and softer, precious metal prices both contributed to sentiment. Generally, the cross has been a little aimless amid US Thanksgiving holiday interruptions. On the chart we see price meet the 50% fib level of 0.6590 and rebound lower signalling this level could hold a while longer. Aussie y/y CPI prints Wednesday with markets predicting a small drop from 5.6%.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6555

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.5988- 0.6086

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

A rudderless New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) made for choppy trading over the week with price not really favouring any one direction. Into Friday the cross hovers around the 0.4824 (2.0730) zone awaiting further clues. UK Manufacturing printed up on expectations overnight confirming a return to business expansion although numbers are still representing a softer long-term view of poor demand in the sector. The GBP spiked in demand on the news from 2.0640 (0.4845) to 2.0760 (0.4820). Looking into next week we have the RBNZ cash rate which will remain unchanged at 5.50%

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4823 GBPNZD 2.0733

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4805- 0.4856 GBPNZD 2.0593- 2.0811

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Last week’s US drop in inflation release has put the US Dollar (USD) on notice. Markets are now focusing on clues as to when the Federal Reserve might “cut” rates. Up until recently the rhetoric was “high for long”. Prices Monday in the cross extended Friday’s close around 0.6500 reaching 0.6560 this morning looking like we may see the highest daily close in the pair since 8 August earlier this year. Key Fib levels suggest the pair could get strong resistance around 0.6600 – the 50% zone of the low of 0.6300 and high at 0.6900 in July. In the meantime, RBA minutes later today should confirm further tightening of policy may be required to bring inflation under control, data dependent with evolving risks.

Current Level: 0.5244
Support: 0.5165
Resistance: 0.5265
Last week’s range: 0.5177 – 0.5258

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Last week’s US drop in inflation release has put the US Dollar (USD) on notice. Markets are now focusing on clues as to when the Federal Reserve might “cut” rates. Up until recently the rhetoric was “high for long”. Prices Monday in the cross extended Friday’s close around 0.6500 reaching 0.6560 this morning looking like we may see the highest daily close in the pair since 8 August earlier this year. Key Fib levels suggest the pair could get strong resistance around 0.6600 – the 50% zone of the low of 0.6300 and high at 0.6900 in July. In the meantime, RBA minutes later today should confirm further tightening of policy may be required to bring inflation under control, data dependent with evolving risks.

Current Level: 0.6560
Support: 0.6300
Resistance: 0.6800
Last week’s range: 0.6348 – 0.6542

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

US inflation data surprised markets early Wednesday, the report showing yearly inflation has fallen from 3.7% to 3.2% with energy, utility and gas prices all declining in the month of September. This news confirms the Fed will most likely be taking off the table a hike at their December policy meeting. Treasury yields plunged and the US Dollar (USD) was heavily sold off across the board. Against the Aussie price moved to just under 0.6550 from around 0.6380. Meanwhile Aussie unemployment moved higher off 3.6% to 3.7% beating out expectations of 3.6% suggesting the RBA may have work still to do. Risk sentiment remains tender with the conflicts in Gaza, we don’t expect the AUD to move up past current levels over the medium term with overall bias still to the downside.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6470

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6352- 0.6542

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) weakened off 1.9320 (0.5175) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after UK inflation came in lower than prediction, investors exiting the GBP en masse, the cross reaching 1.9020 (0.5260). UK inflation printed at 4.6% in October y/y coming down from 6.7% as energy prices fell and the UK economy stares at the real possibility they may fall into recession in the next few months. Meanwhile Australian unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.6% as the number of employed jumped by 55,000 after expectations of a rise of just 22,000. The news sent the AUD lower with price retracing to 1.9220 (0.5200). We continue to expect the GBP to retest 1.9330 (0.5175) – the 3-month low.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5210 GBPAUD 1.9193

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5175- 0.5250 GBPAUD 1.9047- 1.9323

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) reached the triple bottom support at 2.0930 (0.4780) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) but couldn’t hold this area cutting lower through to 2.0600 (0.4855) – another key “Fib” level as UK CPI y/y published. UK inflation dropped below the forecast of 6.7% to 4.6% reinforcing rhetoric that the Bank of England (BoE) most likely won’t raise rates again. Markets convinced the central bank are done raising rates and forecasts turn to rate cuts predicted to begin around June 2024. Over the past few hours price has receded to 2.0780 (0.4812) as risk flow deteriorates. End of week predictions suggest we could retest the 2.0950 (0.4775) zone again.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4803 GBPNZD 2.0820

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4768- 0.4857 GBPNZD 2.0588- 2.0973

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

UK GDP came in at 0.6% y/y as expected, monthly 0.2% up on the 0.1% markets were expecting confirming the UK economy has flatlined. The good news- the economy hasn’t fallen into a recession with negative growth, but higher borrowing costs look to be hitting where it hurts and will continue to bite for some time as the Bank of England keeps rates high for an extended period. The British Pound (GBP) rose to 1.9220 (0.5205) at the weekly close and has moderately extended this move Monday to 1.9240 (0.5195) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as markets await this week’s key UK inflation release. Expectations are for a drop from 6.7% to 4.8% y/y which could rally the Pound.

Current Level: 0.5192
Support: 0.5155
Resistance: 0.5265
Last week’s range: 0.5198 – 0.5270

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Declines in Metal/commodity prices have led to a steep drop in the Australian Dollar (AUD) last week against the US Dollar (USD) ,closing at 0.6350 after opening around the 0.6520 area. The recent hawkish tone by the RBA hasn’t helped the Aussie after the RBA hiked rates from 4.10% to 4.35% last week. Indicators suggest we may have seen a base form at the 0.6280 support zone, a November close below this area however would suggest a deeper downtrend, certainly the multi-year low at 0.6200 could come under pressure. On the calendar this week is the US CPI with a forecast of a dip to 3.3% from 3.7% y/y. Last week Powell said the Fed had not done enough to bring down inflation, we shall see.

Current Level: 0.6377
Support: 0.6300
Resistance: 0.6500
Last week’s range: 0.6337 – 0.6522