interbank midrate

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has flatlined over the past few weeks around the 0.4830 (2.0700) area after starting the year at 0.4960 (2.0150) areas. The Bank of England (BoE) kept rates unchanged late last week at 5.25% in a 6-3 vote. The central bank is confident they have their policy setting correct on the path to bringing back inflation to 2.0% target. The news rallied the GBP to close the week at the high of 0.4800 (2.0830). The Bank of England went on to say they could cut rates by 50 points in the first quarter of 2024 as analysis suggests the BoE have gone too far with rate hikes. New Zealand employment data printed at 4.0% after forecasts of 4.3% were expected suggesting the RBNZ may hold rates for longer before cutting. We might see the kiwi perk up towards the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4829 GBPNZD 2.0708

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4797- 0.4849 GBPNZD 2.0622- 2.0845

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The GBP has been softer in the last week against the AUD, trading around 0.5200. This has been due to the weaker GBP, ahead of this week’s Bank of England meeting, to decide monetary policy settings. The Bank of England are expected to leave rates unchanged, but the question will be, will they recognise the recent reversal upwards in inflation? If so, and the BoE is force to hold interest rates higher for longer the GBP will rebound against the AUD Dollar. If the Bank of England see
inflation rises as negligible and temporary then downward pressure may remain.

Current Level: 0.5170
Support: 0.5100
Resistance: 0.5250
Last week’s range: 0.5180 – 0.5205

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The AUD has been soft over the last week, trading consistently below 0.6600. The underlying recessionary economic conditions prevail and this is not likely to change. The markets will closely watch Australian Commodity prices, inflation and PMI data to determine any economic mood change. The biggest influence on the currency is expected to be the FOMS meeting and the impact on the reserve currency. Hawkish Federal reserve commentary is likely to exacerbate the AUD
weakness.

Current Level: 0.6590
Support: 0.6550
Resistance: 0.6700
Last week’s range: 0.6554 – 0.6600

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Last week’s resurgence in inflation in the UK was confirmed by the rising CPI. This coming week the Bank of England will consider this and probably extend the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate settings. This will support the stronger GBP, with any dovish sentiment from the Fed, only adding to the Cables strength.

Current Level: 0.5184
Support: 0.5151
Resistance: 0.5215
Last week’s range: 0.5165 – 0.5204

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Commodity prices remain key to the economic performance of the Australian economy. A measure of Australian Commodity Prices comes out in the coming week, along with final PMI data. Expectations are not high, so recessionary conditions are expected to remain, with the FOMC meeting this coming week, being the greatest influencer. The AUD has traded around 0.6600 for the last week, but the Fed and their decision is likely to have greater impact on the AUD trading direction.

Current Level: 0.6589
Support: 0.6530
Resistance: 0.6635
Last week’s range: 0.6554 – 0.6619

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been massacred thus far in 2024 coming from 0.5360 (1.8650), we have seen the British Pound (GBP) gain strength to 1.9330 (0.5175) this morning. Retail Sales in the UK sent the GBP lower briefly when data published at -3.2% instead of the anticipated -0.5% however the GBP recovered into the weekly close. UK Manufacturing data is predicted to come in soft Wednesday before an Aussie Day holiday Friday. Massive support at 0.5170 (1.9350) could come into play.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4781 GBPAUD 2.0916

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5168- 0.5204 GBPAUD 1.9213- 1.9347

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Are we seeing signs of a long-term base forming in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) pair at 0.6530? A January close below this level would be cause for concern and a rethink of where support lies. Certainly, when we look at the yearly open price circa 0.6815 the Aussie has come off a chunk in a short period of time. With the RBA done hiking interest rates, 2024 will be about cuts and the timing of these. We are forecasting 3 plus cuts in 2024. Let’s hope the banks pass on these rate drops to consumers- say are saying mortgage holders shouldn’t get too excited as not all cuts are passed down. The AUD may be pushed around this week by offshore forces based on no data publishing and an Australian Holiday Friday creating thin market conditions.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6567

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6564- 0.6612

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been unable to get a look against the British Pound (GBP) so far in 2024 with the cross reaching 0.4790 (2.0880) this morning. The yearly open was circa 0.4970 (2.0120) so far it hasn’t been a particularly good start to the year from the kiwi. The only blip on the chart came late last week when UK Retail Sales published poorly at -3.2% compared to predictions of -0.5%. Taking the GBP lower briefly before recovering on a lack of risk in the market. This week’s docket sees NZ CPI q/q which is expected to print around 0.5% and take the y/y figure from 5.6% to 4.7% cementing the need for the RBNZ to cut rates mid-year. The GBP may struggle to breach 0.4775 (2.0950) support this week.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.5169 GBPNZD 1.9346

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4777- 0.4830 GBPNZD 2.0700- 2.0931

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The surge in UK inflation, rising back to 4% this week, will ensure the Bank of England remains hawkish in their monetary policy, for the early part of 2024. This will support the GBP and add to the weaker economic conditions, domestically. The interest rate differential may support a stronger pound although RBA actions may dimmish the differential.

Current Level: 0.5155
Support: 0.5150
Resistance: 0.5250
Last week’s range: 0.5155 – 0.5260

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Commodity demand has been directly impacted by the recessionary economic conditions in Europe, which has a down-chain economic impact on China, and thus the Australian commodity markets. Inflationary pressures in the Australian economy remain clear and present, while the labour market remains relatively firm. The resurgent reserve currency has forced the AUD back from 2023 highs of 0.6850, back down towards 0.6500. There may be some downside left, if Geo-Political conditions in the Middle East extend and supply chain problems remain.

Current Level: 0.6550
Support: 0.6540
Resistance: 0.6660
Last week’s range: 0.6550 – 0.6700