interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) slipped below the key moving average level at 0.6550 overnight falling to 0.6530 extending late last week’s drop. Aussie manufacturing numbers last week could still be impacting the currency while “risk” sentiment has certainly turned lower. Of note the cross has rebounded off the Fib 50% retracement level at 0.6580 also suggesting we could see more downside towards 0.6500. Fed member Waller has said: not lowering rates in the coming months and waiting too long- the Fed risks pushing the US economy into a recession.

Current Level: 0.6539
Support: 0.6520
Resistance: 0.6580
Last week’s range: 0.6520- 0.6594

US Manufacturing figures overnight came in soft under 50 while Services PMI numbers improved making the first expansion in the industry in 5 months. This boosted the US Dollar (USD) off 0.6580 levels to 0.6550 this morning. Apart from this slump the Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a decent week after kicking around 0.6540. A soft landing of the US economy is being talked up by Jefferson, vice chair of the Fed; however, rate cuts will depend on upcoming economic progress and the pace of inflation. Next week’s Australian CPI y/y is our key release with forecast of a drop into the 2’s.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6556

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6520- 0.6594

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost over the weekend after chat from Former RBA Kearns suggesting the cash rate was not high enough. With inflation still an issue it would be a long time before the RBA thought about cutting rates. Monday’s action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross was thin with Presidents Day long weekend. The AUD/USD is perched around 0.6530 with perhaps a tad downside bias in early Tuesday. Fed minutes Thursday before manufacturing data and existing home sales are the key prints to come. We struggle to see the Aussie pushing past 0.6550 and may retrace moves.

Current Level: 0.6524
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6570
Last week’s range: 0.6441- 0.6542

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked lower over the week clocking 0.6440 against the US Dollar (USD) as it continued its lower highs followed by lower lows theme. A June rate cut is not that likely now after the US CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.1% y/y for December. This is down from November’s 3.4% – forecast was 2.9%. All those punters expecting a rate cut around mid-year may be disappointed; in fact these numbers could get the Fed excited about a hike further. Aussie job numbers came in softer than expected (unemployment 4.1% from 4.0%) with RBA’s Bullock saying inflation remains well anchored. Core Retail Sales printed poorly in the US and the Aussie came steaming back off lows overnight to trade around 0.6520 after equity markets recovered.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6525

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6441- 0.6542

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross is still trading in a bear trend in 2024. A pickup from the low at 0.6467 last week to today’s 0.6530 is not enough to shift momentum on the down. Equity markets have been buoyant along with overall market sentiment over the past week. Soft Chinese data has been reflected in the price action with the Aussie pinned to much of the Chinese economy. China CPI came in soft stopping the Aussie making any meaningful topside moves. A slew of US data this week should keep things exciting on the chart starting with CPI y/y tomorrow predicted to come in at 2.9% down from 3.4%. The Fed recently pushing back on interest rate cuts indicating May could be the key date, not March. We also have Retail Sales and consumer sentiment late in the week. Upside for the Aussie could be limited.

Current Level: 0.6530
Support: 0.6480
Resistance: 0.6600
Last week’s range: 0.6467- 0.6539

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to retest long term lows in 2024 against the US Dollar (USD) and broadly. The currency hasn’t been able to gain any real momentum based largely on central bank plays and large safe haven USD buying- overnight falling to 0.6490. The RBA left interest rates on hold Tuesday at 4.35% saying rates could rise further depending on incoming data and evolving assessments while downwardly revised their inflation and growth forecasts. RBA Gov Bullock said “signs are good” regarding inflation but “we have to be vigilant”. It’s likely the RBA will lag other central banks in moving to cutt rates which in theory could bring buyers back into the Aussie.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6490

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6467- 0.6539