interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to retest long term lows in 2024 against the US Dollar (USD) and broadly. The currency hasn’t been able to gain any real momentum based largely on central bank plays and large safe haven USD buying- overnight falling to 0.6490. The RBA left interest rates on hold Tuesday at 4.35% saying rates could rise further depending on incoming data and evolving assessments while downwardly revised their inflation and growth forecasts. RBA Gov Bullock said “signs are good” regarding inflation but “we have to be vigilant”. It’s likely the RBA will lag other central banks in moving to cutt rates which in theory could bring buyers back into the Aussie.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6490

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6467- 0.6539

The AUD has been soft over the last week, trading consistently below 0.6600. The underlying recessionary economic conditions prevail and this is not likely to change. The markets will closely watch Australian Commodity prices, inflation and PMI data to determine any economic mood change. The biggest influence on the currency is expected to be the FOMS meeting and the impact on the reserve currency. Hawkish Federal reserve commentary is likely to exacerbate the AUD
weakness.

Current Level: 0.6590
Support: 0.6550
Resistance: 0.6700
Last week’s range: 0.6554 – 0.6600

Commodity prices remain key to the economic performance of the Australian economy. A measure of Australian Commodity Prices comes out in the coming week, along with final PMI data. Expectations are not high, so recessionary conditions are expected to remain, with the FOMC meeting this coming week, being the greatest influencer. The AUD has traded around 0.6600 for the last week, but the Fed and their decision is likely to have greater impact on the AUD trading direction.

Current Level: 0.6589
Support: 0.6530
Resistance: 0.6635
Last week’s range: 0.6554 – 0.6619

Are we seeing signs of a long-term base forming in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) pair at 0.6530? A January close below this level would be cause for concern and a rethink of where support lies. Certainly, when we look at the yearly open price circa 0.6815 the Aussie has come off a chunk in a short period of time. With the RBA done hiking interest rates, 2024 will be about cuts and the timing of these. We are forecasting 3 plus cuts in 2024. Let’s hope the banks pass on these rate drops to consumers- say are saying mortgage holders shouldn’t get too excited as not all cuts are passed down. The AUD may be pushed around this week by offshore forces based on no data publishing and an Australian Holiday Friday creating thin market conditions.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6567

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6564- 0.6612