interbank midrate

The UK economy is back in black after GDP figures for January showed a slight improvement from December’s -0.1% printing at 0.2%. The signs are there that the economy may be improving out of the doldrums however the economy is still fragile needing to build on these numbers in the following months. The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross hasn’t travelled outside of recent ranges this week – currently trading at 0.5160 (1.9370) after bouncing off last week’s high at 0.5185 (1.9280) midweek.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5159 GBPAUD 1.9383

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5142- 0.5185 GBPAUD 1.9283- 1.9445

Big moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) saw swings from 0.5110 (1.9560) to 0.5190 (1.9270) last week post Aussie GDP release. UK construction came in hot but failed to boost the GBP. Also of note, Chinese import data came in above expectation, the Aussie reacting positively.UK GDP for January prints Wednesday with reports pointing to a rise of 0.2% up from December’s -0.1%. Growth overall has been rising since October with the jobless rate falling. A positive report would ease concerns of a sharp recession. We think a retest of 0.5185 (1.9280) is on the cards this week.

Current Level: 0.5156
Support: 0.5130
Resistance: 0.5185
Last week’s range: 0.5110- 0.5190

The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in recession but has green-shoots of growth, allowing some leeway for the Bank of England. The AUD has been undermined by less certainty from the Central Bank. Growth and inflation remain key to both currencies, so data will be watched closely in the coming week.

Current Level: 0.5165
Support: 0.5100
Resistance: 0.5190
Last week’s range: 0.5110- 0.5165

The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in a technical economic recession, but is showing signs of a recovery, which has given the Bank of England some backbone to hold rates higher. The cross-rate is likely to remain soft.

Current Level: 0.5120
Support: 0.5100
Resistance: 0.5200
Last week’s range: 0.5130- 0.5160

The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in recession but has green-shoots of growth, allowing some leeway for the Bank of England. The AUD has been undermined by less certainty from the Central Bank. Growth and inflation remain key to both currencies, so data will be watched closely in the coming week.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP .5154 GBPAUD 1.9402

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP .5129 – 5184 GBPAUD 1.9287 – 1.9490

UK Consumer Confidence slipped to -21 from -19 in January coming in well below forecast. This being said the British Pound (GBP) has managed to hold onto gains Monday extending last week’s rally from 1.9190 (0.5210) to 1.9400 (0.5155). Broad based momentum is firmly with the GBP after starting the year at 1.8250 (0.5480). We are picking a retest of the yearly low at 0.5120 (1.9520) over the coming days as the current trendline supports. Aussie Retail Sales at the end of the week could give us some AUD upside with predictions of a decent number printing.

Current Level: 0.5152
Support: 0.5130
Resistance: 0.5200
Last week’s range: 0.5173- 0.5210