interbank midrate

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has traded around 0.6600 levels for most of the week against the US Dollar (USD). Last night’s US Retail Sales came in soft, creating a “risk off” market tone with equity markets slipping lower, the release sending the Aussie lower to 0.6570 into Friday morning. Earlier US CPI y/y came in above expectations at 3.2% vs 3.10% creating the probability that rate cuts will be made later than expected. Next week’s RBA rate statement meeting will confirm “a remain” at 4.35% but most likely signal they will keep rates “higher for longer” possibly well into 2025.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6580

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6568- 0.6638

US Non-Farm Payroll Friday boosted the Australian Dollar to fresh highs of 0.6660 against a weakened US Dollar (USD). In fairness the AUD came from a low of 0.6480 much before the release. China imports data and a stronger equity market also contributed to the strong move higher. Notably the cross has rejected 0.6660 on the topside which sits plumb on the 50% fib retracement of the recent low of 0.6440 and the high of 0.6870 at the start of the year. A slew of US data releases this week including Retail Sales and CPI y/y Wednesday. We think the AUD may drop away towards 0.6540 areas.

Current Level: 0.6610
Support: 0.6500
Resistance: 0.6670
Last week’s range: 0.6476- 0.6666

The AUD has been faring badly against the USD, battered by the ‘hawkish’ approach to monetary policy by the Fed and the mixed messages emanating from the RBA Governor. Australian inflation has been falling steadily and the latest reading of 3.4% was steady, despite projections of a spike back upwards. The RBA Governor have been all over the shop in recent times, but it will be the grim determination of a ‘hawkish’ Federal Reserve that controls the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6616
Support: 0.6515
Resistance: 0.6650
Last week’s range: 0.6535- 0.6610

The RBA has been less than certain in their policy narrative over recent times. The inflation numbers have been steadily falling, in line with market expectations, but the RBA Governor has been very nervous in her commitment to future rate moves. Markets are looking for a clear direction and continued declines in the CPI, will give some certainty, but any
aberration will draw an immediate hawkish reaction. The AUD has fallen from early 2024 highs of 0.6850, to trading below 0.6500, also a victim of the resurgent reserve currency. Keep a close eye on the Australian GDP growth number, out Wednesday, for a glimpse at the state of the economy.

Current Level: 0.6500
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6620
Last week’s range: 0.6470- 0.6530

The AUD has been faring badly against the USD, battered by the ‘hawkish’ approach to monetary policy by the Fed and the mixed messages emanating from the RBA Governor. Australian inflation has been falling steadily and the latest reading of 3.4% was steady, despite projections of a spike back upwards. The RBA Governor have been all over the shop in recent times, but it will be the grim determination of a ‘hawkish’ Federal Reserve that controls the AUD.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD .6508

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD .6484 – .6565