interbank midrate

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below the 2-week recent range this morning against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5250 (1.9055) targeting the 50% retracement area around 0.5235 (1.9100). All eyes this week will be on UK CPI y/y with predictions the number will drop from 3.2% to 2.1% which will make or break a potential June rate cut. Currently we see rate cut chances at 50/50.  The bank’s target range is 2.0% so we are going to get close, buckle in. UK Retail Sales is later in the week but could surprise lower.

Current Level: 0.5247
Support: 0.5210
Resistance: 0.5295
Last week’s range: 0.5253- 0.5289

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher in overnight trading to reach 0.6710 against the US Dollar (USD) before slipping back to 0.6665 early Tuesday. The bull trend of late from 0.6400 over the past 5 weeks looks in intact with the next target in the pair to the topside at 0.6850 looking vulnerable. The Aussie should get relief around the 0.6640 zone on the downside with a daily close below here perhaps a concern. US Treasury secretary Yellen speaks tonight before Thursday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s US consumer sentiment.

Current Level: 0.6670
Support: 0.6620
Resistance: 0.6845
Last week’s range: 0.6577- 0.6713

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher over the week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6700 levels not seen since early January clearing the massive resistance level at 0.6640. US CPI gave the Aussie a boost yesterday when figures confirming the lowest inflation level of 3.4% since mid-2021. Buyers of AUD came back sinking the greenback as equities rose. Nothing really has changed for Fed monetary policy after markets expected inflation to come in much higher. US Retail Sales however was a bad miss coming in at 0.0% for April vs 0.4% predicted with spending clearly down as retailors take on water. Overall, on the chart we think further rises are in store with a retest of the yearly open around 0.6800

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6673

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6578- 0.6713

 

 

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

As we predicted the Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied through to 0.5295 (1.8890) levels late last week against the British Pound (GBP) before giving back gains to 0.5265 (1.9000) into morning trading. The Pound has been well bid off the back of surprisingly good UK data with Industrial Production coming in better than expected with output rising 0.2% in March of 0.1% in February and a fall of 0.5% in January. UK Claimant numbers print tonight and should show around 14,000 people filed for unemployment in April, up from March’s 10,900- this number trending upwards over the past few months. Unemployment also prints in Australia later in the week which should tick up to 3.9%-4.0%

Current Level: 0.5257
Support: 0.5235
Resistance: 0.5290
Last week’s range: 0.5253- 0.5291

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) went on a little run yesterday off the weekly open from 0.6590 pushing higher to 0.6628 against the US Dollar (USD), dropping back to 0.6610 this morning. The market has been quiet to start the week as punters look towards US inflation data Thursday. Further tariffs on China have been behind some of the moves, the big dollar strengthening off the back. US CPI year on year is predicted to print at 3.4%- down off 3.5% but talk around additional cuts could be on the agenda and could weaken of the greenback. A break above 0.6640 could suggest further upside in the Aussie.

Current Level: 0.6601
Support: 0.6550
Resistance: 0.6660
Last week’s range: 0.6556- 0.6643

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

It wasn’t a surprise to see the British Pound (GBP) drop away against the Australian Dollar (AUD) post the Bank of England (BoE) cash rate last night. The central bank left their key rate unchanged at 5.25% in a 7-2 vote by members- the BoE saying they expect to cut rates twice this year suggesting the first cut to happen at their August meeting. The cross fell from 0.5265 (1.8990) post release to sit 0.5285 (1.8915) in morning trade, corresponding to an 8 Jan 2024 high. UK’s inflation is predicted to remain sticky leading into year end with a 2.0% target reached around next April. A retest of the 2024 open at 0.5360 (1.8660) looks the ticket with central bank divergence to worsen over the coming months.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5281 GBPAUD 1.8935

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5253- 0.5291 GBPAUD 1.8898- 1.9035

 

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) sits just above the weekly open at 0.6620 into Friday against the US Dollar (USD) recovering early week losses from 0.6560 levels. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 4.35%, the AUD dropping post the release as the statement was seen as less hawkish than markets were expecting. The bank saying the path of interest rates will ensure inflation returns to target in a good timeframe, the RBA not ruling anything out. Inflation targets are projected to fall to 2.8% by late 2025 putting it bang on in their target zone of 2-3%. US Inflation next week should reflect a drop y/y from 3.5% to 3.4%, earlier year forecasts of 3.1% won’t eventuate. A retest of 0.6640 is close, a break above here would suggest bullish continuation.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6616

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6556- 0.6643

 

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

This week’s main attraction is a double header of central bank action with the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) both releasing policy statements and cash rates. The Aussie kicked back from 0.5180 (1.9300) mid-week closing around the 0.5275 (1.8960) area extending its run to a 17-week high. Both central banks should retain policy, BoE at 5.25% and the RBA at 4.35%. We see a small chance the RBA could hike to 4.6% but this would be a gutsy move. The BoE could start conversations around cutting sooner than later but will most likely confirm a wait and see approach based on incoming data over the next couple of months. Also of note is monthly UK GDP for March with no improvement from 0.1% expected. We favour a retest of 0.5305 (1.8850) over the week

Current Level: 0.5271
Support: 0.5235
Resistance: 0.5290
Last week’s range: 0.5179- 0.5279

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) extended moves higher Monday off Fridays Non-Farm Payroll data reaching 0.6640. The green back has lost some of its recent appeal, certainly the Federal Reserve are considering rate cuts sooner rather than later now post jobs data. The number of people employed seasonally adjusted in March dropped with just 175,000 new jobs created instead of the 238,000 predicted. Unemployment also ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9% confirming the labour market is cooling. The pair is sitting just below the triple top resistance level at 0.6645 suggesting a pullback could eventuate depending on the RBA this afternoon. The RBA cash rate should remain unchanged at 4.35% but this is not a dead cert with many suggesting a hike is in store. We think with inflationary pressures still hot they should hold for the 4th straight meeting.

Current Level: 0.6622
Support: 0.6565
Resistance: 0.6650
Last week’s range: 0.6464- 0.6647

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Risk sentiment in markets improved throughout the week with the Australian Dollar (AUD) recovering off 0.5180 (1.9300) levels to post 0.5245 (1.9070) into Friday. The cross sits at the top of the recent range going back to January this year- a rally past 0.5265 (1.9000) would suggest further upside could be on the cards. All eyes are on next week’s RBA and Bank of England rate releases and statements with no change expected from the BoE’s 5.25% and RBA’s 4.35%, although a small chance the central bank could hike one more time. This could put the cat among the pigeons if a hike eventuates.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5240 GBPAUD 1.9083

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5178- 0.5251 GBPAUD 1.9041- 1.9309