EUR

French budget woes and softer German prelim CPI m/m have both contributed to the Euro (EUR) demise over the past few days against the Australian Dollar (AUD) sending prices in the cross to 0.6220 (1.6080) in morning trade. A retest and break above 0.6250 (1.6000) the 2024 high would signal further upside for the AUD. With the RBA holding tight on easing policy until next year we could certainly see more of the same.

Current Level: 0.6208
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6096- 0.6205

Last week’s Australian inflation read came in at 2.7% y/y as markets were predicting sending the AUD higher against the British Pound (GBP) to close the week circa 0.5165 (1.9360) levels. Its still not enough for the RBA to consider cutting rates just yet, what’s interesting in the CPI number is a drop of -17% in electricity based on the govt providing rebates. So, the CPI number could end up rising back above 3.0% once the rebates have finished at the end of 2025. The AUD climbed to 0.5185 (1.9285) resistance early this morning before dropping back to 0.5170 (1.9350)

Current Level: 1.9346
Resistance: 1.9250
Support: 1.9270
Last Weeks Range: 1.9324- 1.9570

The bull run from 0.5550 (1.8015) mid-September levels continued into Monday in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair, the EUR under pressure for the third week straight with price clocking 0.5720 (1.7485) this morning. French’s debt rose to 112% of GDP in the second quarter the govt extremely concerned about the mounting debt. Add in poor Germin prelim CPI and falling Spanish CPI y/y and its not hard to see why the EUR has been underperforming.

Current Level: 1.7568
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7400
Last Weeks Range: 1.7557 – 1.7909

The bull run from 0.5550 (1.8015) mid-September levels continued into Monday in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair, the EUR under pressure for the third week straight with price clocking 0.5720 (1.7485) this morning. French’s debt rose to 112% of GDP in the second quarter the govt extremely concerned about the mounting debt. Add in poor Germin prelim CPI and falling Spanish CPI y/y and its not hard to see why the EUR has been underperforming.

Current Level: 0.5692
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5583- 0.5695

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to improve to 0.4750 (2.1060) today against the British Pound (GBP) the second week running amid volatile swings we have seen the kiwi favoured. BoE’s Greene said earlier it will be “steady as she goes” approach to easing monetary policy who voted against cutting rates at the August meeting. Setbacks in the GBP look to be well supported around 0.4760 (2.1000) the top of the long-term bear channel. It’s a thin week of data releases with just UK PMI construction due Friday.

Current Level: 2.1101
Resistance: 2.1450
Support: 2.0970
Last Weeks Range: 2.1057- 2.1362

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to improve to 0.4750 (2.1060) today against the British Pound (GBP) the second week running amid volatile swings we have seen the kiwi favoured. BoE’s Greene said earlier it will be “steady as she goes” approach to easing monetary policy who voted against cutting rates at the August meeting. Setbacks in the GBP look to be well supported around 0.4760 (2.1000) the top of the long-term bear channel. It’s a thin week of data releases with just UK PMI construction due Friday.

Current Level: 0.4739
Resistance: 0.4770
Support: 0.4660
Last Weeks Range: 0.4681- 0.4749

Higher for longer- the RBA mantra keeps the AUD in control broadly, against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the AUD is slightly up this week trading at 0.9175 (1.0900) in early Tuesday. However, for any real price moves we will need to see the cross break outside the range between 0.9140 (1.0940) and 0.9215 (1.0850) we have seen over the last fortnight. With central bank divergence and fib levels coming into play we feel a retest of 0.9140 (1.0940) is most likely this week carving out a longer-term trend towards 0.9000 (1.1100). NZ Business confidence up at -1% from -44% q/q has given the kiwi a small push before Aussie Retail Sales releases later today.

Current Level: 1.0897
Resistance: 1.0950
Support: 1.0850
Last Weeks Range: 1.0848 – 1.0942

Higher for longer- the RBA mantra keeps the AUD in control broadly, against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the AUD is slightly up this week trading at 0.9175 (1.0900) in early Tuesday. However, for any real price moves we will need to see the cross break outside the range between 0.9140 (1.0940) and 0.9215 (1.0850) we have seen over the last fortnight. With central bank divergence and fib levels coming into play we feel a retest of 0.9140 (1.0940) is most likely this week carving out a longer-term trend towards 0.9000 (1.1100). NZ Business confidence up at -1% from -44% q/q has given the kiwi a small push before Aussie Retail Sales releases later today.

Current Level: 0.9165
Resistance: 0.9215
Support: 0.9130
Last Weeks Range: 0.9140 – 0.9218

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued to push into new territory last week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching a new 2024 high of 0.6340 surpassing the previous high around 0.6310 early in the New Year. Record closes in the DOW and S&P certainly have helped the kiwi along with a poor US consumer confidence read. The “big” dollar gave up ground broadly with the index falling below expectations to 98.7, the Fed strangely are still holding firm on non-aggressive easing. Monday prices have extended higher off the close to reach 0.6378 early this morning. Markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates now 75 points by the end of the year with a further 175-200 points cut in 2025. This week’s main release is US Non-farm payroll, we expect employed numbers to drop. Watch for a pullback of sorts this week towards 0.6300 levels.

Current Level: 0.6341
Support: 0.6250
Resistance: 0.6460
Last week’s range: 0.6220- 0.6366

The Euro (EUR) fell away sharply early week against all the main currency board, dropping to 1.6200 (0.6170) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after starting the week at 1.6400 (0.6100). The Euro has had one of the worst weeks in 2024 after PMI results and Manufacturing numbers all came in light. Not helping was the RBA which left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the hawkish tone by Governor Bullock rallied the AUD sighting awkward inflation and a strong labour market.

Current Level: 1.6231
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6315- 1.6535