The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run lower Monday off 0.5540 (1.8060) against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5515 (1.8130) this morning, an 11-week low. We have no tier 1 data publishing this week which means global macro themes will continue to dictate moves. On the chart we see support around current levels, any action below 0.5512 (1.8140) may signal further drops in the cross.
Current Level: 0.5518
Support: 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5600
Last week’s range: 0.5533- 0.5607
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended declines into Tuesday sessions falling from 0.4615 (2.1680) to 0.4590 (2.1800). The lowest weekly close since Brexit in June 2016 was 0.4565 (2.1900) in the cross, we expect this level to come into play over the short term as we head into next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement when we expect interest rates to cut from 5.00% to 4.75%.
Current Level: 2.1795
Resistance: 2.190
Support: 2.1500
Last Weeks Range: 2.1378- 2.1694
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended declines into Tuesday sessions falling from 0.4615 (2.1680) to 0.4590 (2.1800). The lowest weekly close since Brexit in June 2016 was 0.4565 (2.1900) in the cross, we expect this level to come into play over the short term as we head into next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement when we expect interest rates to cut from 5.00% to 4.75%.
Current Level: 0.4588
Resistance: 0.4650
Support: 0.4565
Last Weeks Range: 0.4609- 0.4677
The cost of living in Australia is poised today to show a 3-year low when inflation drops from 3.8% to around 2.9%. This would be the lowest since March 2021 and drop into the RBA’s target zone of between 2-3%. However, anyone expecting the RBA to drop their cash rate from 4.35% may still need to wait a while. Disappointment towards China’s latest stimulus measures is also weighing on the AUD this week with prices spiking to 0.9100 (1.0990) early morning. This being said- this upside in the kiwi should not be ignored with the RBNZ expected to cut half a percent later in November.
Current Level: 1.0981
Resistance: 1.1080
Support: 1.0950
Last Weeks Range: 1.1018 – 1.1065
The cost of living in Australia is poised today to show a 3-year low when inflation drops from 3.8% to around 2.9%. This would be the lowest since March 2021 and drop into the RBA’s target zone of between 2-3%. However, anyone expecting the RBA to drop their cash rate from 4.35% may still need to wait a while. Disappointment towards China’s latest stimulus measures is also weighing on the AUD this week with prices spiking to 0.9100 (1.0990) early morning. This being said- this upside in the kiwi should not be ignored with the RBNZ expected to cut half a percent later in November.
Current Level: 0.9104
Resistance: 0.9130
Support: 0.9025
Last Weeks Range: 0.9037 – 0.9076
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to slide lower against the US Dollar (USD) starting the week around 0.5980 and dropping lower off the open to post 0.5960 as we head into Tuesday trading. Punters have been buying the big dollar on mass of late with consideration of uncertainty around what could eventuate in next week’s presidential elections. Also, the with the news that the Fed may peg back cuts if this week’s Non-Farm Payroll release comes in hot is also pushing the USD higher. The kiwi has dropped in value for the 5th straight week and now rapidly approaches long term support at 0.5850. With the RBNZ also expected to cut interest rates by 50-75 points at their next meeting in November it’s hard to see much upside in the pipeline. All those buyers of USD should consider anything around current levels.
Current Level: 0.5971
Support: 0.5870
Resistance: 0.6050
Last week’s range: 0.5972- 0.6083
The EUR has been directionally controlled by the movements of the US Dollar, as have most other currencies. The rise in Bond Yields has underpinned the USD and pushed the EUR back below 1.0800. The cross-rate has traded around 0.6100 and this is likely to improve unless the RBA change monetary policy. Interest rates differentials are making the AUD much more attractive on the cross with the EUR.
Current Level: 1.6310
Resistance: 1.6500
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6138- 1.6318
The EUR has been directionally controlled by the movements of the US Dollar, as have most other currencies. The rise in Bond Yields has underpinned the USD and pushed the EUR back below 1.0800. The cross-rate has traded around 0.6100 and this is likely to improve unless the RBA change monetary policy. Interest rates differentials are making the AUD much more attractive on the cross with the EUR.
Current Level: 0.6166
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6110
Last Weeks Range: 0.6115- 0.6207
The UK economy has been emerging from the recessionary economic conditions, under the guidance of the new Government, but things may be about to change. The UK Budget is next week and the rumours are that there will be tax hikes and budget cuts. The latest is a rumour of expanded deficits/debt, which can only mean that budget cuts will be more a re-prioritisation of spending, rather than cuts. The cross rate is likely to trade around current levels of 0.5100, save some major changes to UK Budget direction or RBA monetary policy.
Current Level: 1.9551
Resistance: 2.0000
Support: 1.9000
Last Weeks Range: 1.9357- 1.9555
The ECB and RBNZ have currently both embarked on an interest rate cutting cycle. They are moving at different velocity, but began from different origins. The ECB raised rates to lower levels and without the enthusiasm of the RBNZ, but are not equally as dovish on monetary policy. High interest rates and the cost of energy have driven their respective economies into recession, which has killed inflation. Therefore, as they operate in tandem, we can expect minimum variation to the cross-rate. The rate is trading around 0.5600.
Current Level: 1.8017
Resistance: 1.8500
Support: 1.7500
Last Weeks Range: 1.7833 – 1.8020