AUD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) extended gains Monday back to the pre- level low of 0.5140 (1.9460) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Its thin air all the way through to 0.4940 (2.0240) on the chart as the long-term head and shoulders pattern progresses. NAB Business Confidence prints today and Friday UK quarterly GDP. The lower highs followed by lower lows should continue to dominate moves in the cross for some time.

Current Level: 0.5142
Resistance: 0.5270
Support: 0.5135
Last Weeks Range: 0.5136 – 0.5243

AUD/USD Transfer

After falling to 0.6510 late in the week the Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered towards 0.6600 at the close against the US Dollar (USD). The cross looks to be consolidating where it is the cross trading around 0.6570 Monday despite a pick-up in risk appetite. Looking ahead we have a quiet week on the docket until Friday’s US CPI data releases. The recent spike in US yields have given the greenback a lift however the real moves will be based on where CPI prints. Expectations are for a rise to 3.3% from 3.0% y/y which won’t be welcomed by the Fed.

Current Level: 0.6573
Resistance: 0.6890
Support: 0.6530
Last Weeks Range: 0.6512 – 0.6739

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains “offered” into Monday against the Euro with price just a touch lower on the open at 0.5540 (1.8050). Although risk appetite has improved with equity markets recovering it’s unusual to not have seen a reversal of sorts from the kiwi. New Zealand Inflation expectations for the third quarter releases Wednesday which should give clues as to whether we might see a shift in monetary policy from the RBNZ and hold or consider another hike? We don’t see any shifts outside the long-term bear channel happening this week with price likely to trickle lower.

Current Level: 1.8027
Resistance: 1.8050
Support: 1.7545
Last Weeks Range: 1.7670 – 1.8068

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains “offered” into Monday against the Euro with price just a touch lower on the open at 0.5540 (1.8050). Although risk appetite has improved with equity markets recovering it’s unusual to not have seen a reversal of sorts from the kiwi. New Zealand Inflation expectations for the third quarter releases Wednesday which should give clues as to whether we might see a shift in monetary policy from the RBNZ and hold or consider another hike? We don’t see any shifts outside the long-term bear channel happening this week with price likely to trickle lower.

Current Level: 0.5547
Resistance: 0.5700
Support: 0.5540
Last Weeks Range: 0.5534 – 0.5659

GBP/NZD Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) continue to climb against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday to meet the earlier low of 0.4775 (2.0940). Risk markets were a little subdued giving the GBP further momentum. A break clear of 0.4760 (2.10) would certainly signal further downside for the kiwi, the next target support is 0.4670 (2.1400), the pre-Brexit low of June 2016. Looking ahead we have NZ inflation expectations tomorrow and UK GDP Friday.

Current Level: 2.0942
Resistance: 2.0965
Support: 2.0510
Last Weeks Range: 2.0623 – 2.0958

NZD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) continue to climb against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday to meet the earlier low of 0.4775 (2.0940). Risk markets were a little subdued giving the GBP further momentum. A break clear of 0.4760 (2.10) would certainly signal further downside for the kiwi, the next target support is 0.4670 (2.1400), the pre-Brexit low of June 2016. Looking ahead we have NZ inflation expectations tomorrow and UK GDP Friday.

Current Level: 0.4775
Resistance: 0.4875
Support: 0.4770
Last Weeks Range: 0.4771 – 0.4848

AUD/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a key 12-week level of 0.9325 (1.0725) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the wash up of the RBA leaving rates unchanged last week. The pair is bouncing around the 0.9285 (1.0770) area early Tuesday as it consolidates ahead of a thin week of data releases. NZ Inflation expectations prints tomorrow with the view predicted inflation should be tracking around the 3.0% mark in two years’ time, but this shouldn’t be a big currency mover. Price in the cross could drift close to the 0.9300 (1.0750) area this week.

Current Level: 1.0772
Resistance: 1.0910
Support: 1.0730
Last Weeks Range: 1.0726 – 1.0832

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a key 12-week level of 0.9325 (1.0725) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the wash up of the RBA leaving rates unchanged last week. The pair is bouncing around the 0.9285 (1.0770) area early Tuesday as it consolidates ahead of a thin week of data releases. NZ Inflation expectations prints tomorrow with the view predicted inflation should be tracking around the 3.0% mark in two years’ time, but this shouldn’t be a big currency mover. Price in the cross could drift close to the 0.9300 (1.0750) area this week.

Current Level: 0.9283
Resistance: 0.9320
Support: 0.9165
Last Weeks Range: 0.9147 – 0.9323

 

NZD/USD Transfer

Inflation data will be key this week to determining the next move by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD). With the kiwi travelling close to long term lows recently around the 0.6030 zone it’s an important week, will the NZD finally fall below pivotal 0.6000 or maintain enough buyer support and rally back to levels around 0.6400 seen a couple of weeks back. Certainly, NZ inflation expectations for the 3rd quarter could determine if we see a last-ditch hike by the RBNZ to bring down inflation. US CPI y/y is predicted to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%, the first time since June 2022, which may decide if the US economy falls into recession.

Current Level: 0.6105
Resistance: 0.6390
Support: 0.6065
Last Weeks Range: 0.6058 – 0.6224

FX Update: Risk Holding Up

Market Overview

Key Points:
• Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) printed poorly at 187,000 compared to 205,000 putting the US Dollar under pressure.
• The Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise rates again, we see a 70% chance the Central Bank will hike 25 points at their Sep 21 meeting.
• Germany’s economic situation is worsening as they face industrial production declines, energy rises, and a lack of consumer spending.
• The Fed have not ruled out the possibility of cutting rates in 2024
• UK House prices fell 0.3% in July vs 0.0%
• The Euro (EUR) has been the strongest currency in the month of August while the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the worst performer.

Major Announcements last week:
• Chinese July Manufacturing 49.3 vs 48.9 forecast
• RBA maintain cash rate at 4.10%
• NZ Unemployment Rate climbs to 3.6% from 3.4% in June
• Bank of England (BoE) hike 25 points to 5.25%
• Canadian Unemployment remains unchanged at 5.5%
• Non-Farm Payroll prints 187k vs 205k expected