EUR

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 0.5981
Resistance: 0.6110
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5919- 0.6006

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 1.6719
Resistance: 1.7065
Support: 1.6305
Last Weeks Range: 1.6649 – 1.6893

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its move higher Monday to 0.5150 (1.9415) vs the British Pound (GBP) easing to 0.5142 (1.945) this morning. Notably the cross has broken the 0.5140 (1.9460) level which could signal further upside for the AUD as the week progresses. UK GDP for July prints this week which could weaken the GBP if we see the forecasted -0.2% reported. Certainly, around these levels buyers of GBP should consider. The long-term trend lower could resume any day.

Current Level: 1.9462
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0680
Last Weeks Range: 1.9465 – 1.9746

Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross reached 0.5530 (1.8080) resistance Monday before easing lower to 0.5510 (1.8155) early Tuesday. This week’s ECB rate decision is hanging in the balance with no clear indication the central bank will hike or not. Chances look to be around 40% for a hike from 4.25%. Certainly, if we see no hike eventuate attention will divert to rhetoric round policy agenda looking forward. We suspect a hike is still very much on the cards this year depending on how inflation rolls out. The enormous bear trend in play from December’s 0.6115 (1.6350) is still very much in play but with the pair showing prices at the bottom of the channel- these levels could represent decent buying of EUR.

Current Level: 1.8178
Resistance: 1.8470
Support: 1.7700
Last Weeks Range: 1.8097 – 1.8317

Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross reached 0.5530 (1.8080) resistance Monday before easing lower to 0.5510 (1.8155) early Tuesday. This week’s ECB rate decision is hanging in the balance with no clear indication the central bank will hike or not. Chances look to be around 40% for a hike from 4.25%. Certainly, if we see no hike eventuate attention will divert to rhetoric round policy agenda looking forward. We suspect a hike is still very much on the cards this year depending on how inflation rolls out. The enormous bear trend in play from December’s 0.6115 (1.6350) is still very much in play but with the pair showing prices at the bottom of the channel- these levels could represent decent buying of EUR.

Current Level: 0.5501
Support: 0.5410
Resistance: 0.5650
Last week’s range: 0.5459 – 0.5525

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4740 (2.1100), falling slightly into Tuesday to 0.4730 (2.1130). UK housing data is behind some of the GBP weakness with prices falling 1.9% in August, annually 4.6% with prices back to the start of the year. UK claimant data releases later tonight with figures expected to show less people filed for unemployment in August. If we see a break above 0.4750 (2.1050) we could see further support for the kiwi with a possible retest of the 5-week high at 0.4785 (2.0900).

Current Level: 2.1155
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0660
Last Weeks Range: 2.1144 – 2.1413

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4740 (2.1100), falling slightly into Tuesday to 0.4730 (2.1130). UK housing data is behind some of the GBP weakness with prices falling 1.9% in August, annually 4.6% with prices back to the start of the year. UK claimant data releases later tonight with figures expected to show less people filed for unemployment in August. If we see a break above 0.4750 (2.1050) we could see further support for the kiwi with a possible retest of the 5-week high at 0.4785 (2.0900).

Current Level: 0.4727
Resistance: 0.4840
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4670 – 0.4730

After a week of recovering losses by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9235 (1.0830) Monday’s action has seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.9200 (1.0870) the AUD looking to regain momentum from early August’s 0.9320 (1.0730). Late this week we have the only tier one data- Australian employment data. Unemployment is predicted to remain around 3.7% with the change in the employed expected to rise in August, something the RBA will be cautious of, a direct correlation with higher inflation. A retest of 0.9160 (1.0920) looks the bet this week.

Current Level: 1.0865
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0823 – 1.0883

After a week of recovering losses by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9235 (1.0830) Monday’s action has seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.9200 (1.0870) the AUD looking to regain momentum from early August’s 0.9320 (1.0730). Late this week we have the only tier one data- Australian employment data. Unemployment is predicted to remain around 3.7% with the change in the employed expected to rise in August, something the RBA will be cautious of, a direct correlation with higher inflation. A retest of 0.9160 (1.0920) looks the bet this week.

Current Level: 0.9193
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9188 – 0.9239

Currencies recovered Monday against the US Dollar (USD) with the greenback sold off in bulk. This is directly correlated to the sharp turnaround of the Yen. The kiwi surged to 0.5935 from 0.5880 post the open and has consolidated around the 0.5920 mark into Tuesday. The key release this week is US CPI with analysts suggesting it could go higher from 3.2% y/y to 3.6%, consensus is if this happens we could see the Fed raise rates in November. With the cross trading at the top of the bear channel this represents decent buy opportunities.

Current Level: 0.5910
Resistance: 0.6380
Support: 0.5850
Last Weeks Range: 0.5857 – 0.5959