EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has held up around 0.5900 levels most of the week against the US Dollar (USD) in volatile trading. US Inflation is back in causing the Fed problems, rising in the August month by 0.6% and shifting the year-on-year figure from 3.6% to 3.7%, the second rise in a row. The Fed raised rates to a 22 year high in July and the call to raise rates again will largely depend on incoming data, certainly prospects look as though another hike in the fourth quarter may be required. Next week’s Fed meeting is widely predicted to hold at 5.5%. The pair may be losing momentum to the topside analysing the long-term bear channel on the chart. Those needing USD should consider.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5904

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5879- 0.5945

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week with price reaching 0.9175 (1.0900) from early week’s 0.9260 (1.0800) area. Aussie job numbers boosted the AUD after publishing up on expectations. The Unemployment rate remains the same at 3.7% but the participation rate rose from 66% to 67% along with the change in the number of fresh folks employed up 64,000 after 25,000 was expected. Next week’s second quarter GDP will publish, expected to print around the -0.1% area confirming the NZ economy is still in a shallow recession. We see decent support around 0.9160 (1.0920) as the cross resumes the 7-week bear trend from 0.9320 (1.0730)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9175    AUDNZD 1.0890

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9175- 0.9241    AUDNZD 1.0821- 1.0899

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 0.5981
Resistance: 0.6110
Support: 0.5860
Last Weeks Range: 0.5919- 0.6006

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a fresh 6 week high of 0.6007 (1.6645) against the Euro (EUR) but couldn’t hold here dropping back to 0.5980 (1.6715), clearly the cross is not ready to make a move above the key 0.6000 level just yet. Chances of the ECB raising rates this Thursday from the current 4.25% have eased to around 40% from mid August’s 60%. We see chances of a hike in the 4th quarter at 70% depending on how CPI prints. Expectations are for decent drops in both September and October. Direction this week in the cross will mostly come from the ECB.

Current Level: 1.6719
Resistance: 1.7065
Support: 1.6305
Last Weeks Range: 1.6649 – 1.6893

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its move higher Monday to 0.5150 (1.9415) vs the British Pound (GBP) easing to 0.5142 (1.945) this morning. Notably the cross has broken the 0.5140 (1.9460) level which could signal further upside for the AUD as the week progresses. UK GDP for July prints this week which could weaken the GBP if we see the forecasted -0.2% reported. Certainly, around these levels buyers of GBP should consider. The long-term trend lower could resume any day.

Current Level: 1.9462
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0680
Last Weeks Range: 1.9465 – 1.9746

Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross reached 0.5530 (1.8080) resistance Monday before easing lower to 0.5510 (1.8155) early Tuesday. This week’s ECB rate decision is hanging in the balance with no clear indication the central bank will hike or not. Chances look to be around 40% for a hike from 4.25%. Certainly, if we see no hike eventuate attention will divert to rhetoric round policy agenda looking forward. We suspect a hike is still very much on the cards this year depending on how inflation rolls out. The enormous bear trend in play from December’s 0.6115 (1.6350) is still very much in play but with the pair showing prices at the bottom of the channel- these levels could represent decent buying of EUR.

Current Level: 1.8178
Resistance: 1.8470
Support: 1.7700
Last Weeks Range: 1.8097 – 1.8317

Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross reached 0.5530 (1.8080) resistance Monday before easing lower to 0.5510 (1.8155) early Tuesday. This week’s ECB rate decision is hanging in the balance with no clear indication the central bank will hike or not. Chances look to be around 40% for a hike from 4.25%. Certainly, if we see no hike eventuate attention will divert to rhetoric round policy agenda looking forward. We suspect a hike is still very much on the cards this year depending on how inflation rolls out. The enormous bear trend in play from December’s 0.6115 (1.6350) is still very much in play but with the pair showing prices at the bottom of the channel- these levels could represent decent buying of EUR.

Current Level: 0.5501
Support: 0.5410
Resistance: 0.5650
Last week’s range: 0.5459 – 0.5525

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4740 (2.1100), falling slightly into Tuesday to 0.4730 (2.1130). UK housing data is behind some of the GBP weakness with prices falling 1.9% in August, annually 4.6% with prices back to the start of the year. UK claimant data releases later tonight with figures expected to show less people filed for unemployment in August. If we see a break above 0.4750 (2.1050) we could see further support for the kiwi with a possible retest of the 5-week high at 0.4785 (2.0900).

Current Level: 2.1155
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0660
Last Weeks Range: 2.1144 – 2.1413

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4740 (2.1100), falling slightly into Tuesday to 0.4730 (2.1130). UK housing data is behind some of the GBP weakness with prices falling 1.9% in August, annually 4.6% with prices back to the start of the year. UK claimant data releases later tonight with figures expected to show less people filed for unemployment in August. If we see a break above 0.4750 (2.1050) we could see further support for the kiwi with a possible retest of the 5-week high at 0.4785 (2.0900).

Current Level: 0.4727
Resistance: 0.4840
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4670 – 0.4730

After a week of recovering losses by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9235 (1.0830) Monday’s action has seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.9200 (1.0870) the AUD looking to regain momentum from early August’s 0.9320 (1.0730). Late this week we have the only tier one data- Australian employment data. Unemployment is predicted to remain around 3.7% with the change in the employed expected to rise in August, something the RBA will be cautious of, a direct correlation with higher inflation. A retest of 0.9160 (1.0920) looks the bet this week.

Current Level: 1.0865
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0823 – 1.0883