EUR

After closing the week on a high the Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back gains into Tuesday trading around the 0.5140 (1.9450) area against the British Pound (GBP). The Pound has had the help of Industrial Production and Manufacturing prints both releasing above expectation. UK GDP m/m for August also came in at 0.2% meeting predictions after two months of stagnation. Data this week comes in the form of UK inflation with markets expecting a 0.3% fall off 2.2% y/y. Anything north of this could spell trouble for the inflation cautious Bank of England. With stimulus measures in China looking better we believe the AUD could pick up points this week and retest 0.5170 (1.9340)

Current Level: 1.9425
Resistance: 1.9560
Support: 1.9300
Last Weeks Range: 1.9241- 1.9485

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clawed back valuable losses mid last week from 0.5530 (1.8080) to close the week at the 0.5585 (1.7900) level. Thin markets Monday made for a volatile start to the week’s trading, the kiwi bid into Tuesday at 0.5590 (1.7890). A shifty ECB have changed their mind on rate cuts from a month ago with markets now expecting a cut to 3.40% from 3.60% early Friday. There is argument that the ECB shouldn’t cut again this week based on falls in energy prices falsely having a knock-on effect to prices, also of note wage growth has slowed despite the ECB saying it hasn’t. The kiwi could pick up a few points this week.

Current Level: 1.7917
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7700
Last Weeks Range: 1.7769 – 1.8078

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clawed back valuable losses mid last week from 0.5530 (1.8080) to close the week at the 0.5585 (1.7900) level. Thin markets Monday made for a volatile start to the week’s trading, the kiwi bid into Tuesday at 0.5590 (1.7890). A shifty ECB have changed their mind on rate cuts from a month ago with markets now expecting a cut to 3.40% from 3.60% early Friday. There is argument that the ECB shouldn’t cut again this week based on falls in energy prices falsely having a knock-on effect to prices, also of note wage growth has slowed despite the ECB saying it hasn’t. The kiwi could pick up a few points this week.

Current Level: 0.5581
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5650
Last week’s range: 0.5531- 0.5627

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made gains mid last week off 0.4635 (2.1580) against the British Pound (GBP) closing at 0.4680 (2.1380). Early week moves have seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.4660 (2.1470) as we head into CPI prints for both currencies. UK inflation should dip to 1.9% from 2.2% y/y creeping just inside the Bank of England’s target. At the moment the BoE are expected to cut rates on the 7th of Nov by a further 0.25% to 4.75% however the central bank remains cautious over cutting too quick. The bear trend in the cross remains.

Current Level: 2.1473
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.1170
Last Weeks Range: 2.1245- 2.1590

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made gains mid last week off 0.4635 (2.1580) against the British Pound (GBP) closing at 0.4680 (2.1380). Early week moves have seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.4660 (2.1470) as we head into CPI prints for both currencies. UK inflation should dip to 1.9% from 2.2% y/y creeping just inside the Bank of England’s target. At the moment the BoE are expected to cut rates on the 7th of Nov by a further 0.25% to 4.75% however the central bank remains cautious over cutting too quick. The bear trend in the cross remains.

Current Level: 0.4657
Resistance: 0.4725
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4631- 0.4707

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been teetering just above the 0.9000 (1.1110) level for several days now after coming from the 0.9210 (1.0860) zone a fortnight back. We still believe price will drop into the 80’s with the AUD generally in better shape. Aussie Jobs data should reflect 4.2% unemployment (no change) from September when it prints Thursday with more jobs created. Now that markets have got past the Chinese stimulus debacle we may see more buying into AUD.

Current Level: 1.1045
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1020
Last Weeks Range: 1.0981 – 1.1090

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been teetering just above the 0.9000 (1.1110) level for several days now after coming from the 0.9210 (1.0860) zone a fortnight back. We still believe price will drop into the 80’s with the AUD generally in better shape. Aussie Jobs data should reflect 4.2% unemployment (no change) from September when it prints Thursday with more jobs created. Now that markets have got past the Chinese stimulus debacle we may see more buying into AUD.

Current Level: 0.9047
Resistance: 0.9075
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.9017 – 0.9106

It has been a quiet start to the trading week with the US Holiday Monday making for thin market conditions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) closed the week around the 0.6100 mark and has meandered its way into Tuesday around the same level. The kiwi does however look a little better bid post the big dollar recent rally. US Producer Prices turned in a flat monthly result but is up 1.8% y/y and follows other strong US data releases. The Fed is in the final stages of getting inflation back to 2.0% target, but the central bank seem uncertain of how restrictive monetary policy needs to be with the jobs market remaining strong. Focus diverts to NZ inflation tomorrow with expectations of further falls 3.3% to 2.3% q/q which could put extra pressure on the NZD. Upside moves look limited past 0.6140 levels.

Current Level: 0.6086
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.6051- 0.6193

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6250 (1.60) long term resistance mid last week to give back gains to 0.6120 (1.6350) yesterday. Punching below key moving averages around 0.6160 (1.6230) we could see more downside develop. Also weighing on the AUD is Chinese stimulus concerns, rising oil prices and the conflict in Israel. The RBA minutes signalled a removal of their dovish tone by not saying they weren’t reducing the cash rate in the near term.

Current Level: 1.6291
Resistance: 1.6400
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6000- 1.6185

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6250 (1.60) long term resistance mid last week to give back gains to 0.6120 (1.6350) yesterday. Punching below key moving averages around 0.6160 (1.6230) we could see more downside develop. Also weighing on the AUD is Chinese stimulus concerns, rising oil prices and the conflict in Israel. The RBA minutes signalled a removal of their dovish tone by not saying they weren’t reducing the cash rate in the near term.

Current Level: 0.6138
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6100
Last Weeks Range: 0.6178- 0.6250