EUR

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has been unmoved since Wednesday sitting around the 0.5100 (1.9600) mark into early Tuesday sessions. Australian Retail Sales surprised at 0.5% vs 0.2% expected in July and up from -0.8% in June. Food and FIFA Women’s World Cup to blame for the unexpected rise in spending. Looking ahead we have the Australian monthly CPI forecast to print around 5.2% in July down from June’s 5.4%. The pair has crossed above the 100-day moving average this morning signalling we may see a little more AUD strength to come.

Current Level: 0.5096
Resistance: 0.5165
Support: 0.5000
Last Weeks Range: 0.5017 – 0.5107

Early week moves in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5465 (1.8300) from the weekly at 0.5480 (1.8250) had the kiwi immediately on the backfoot in a thin week of economic Data. I’m not sure we will see a retest of the low at 0.5425 (1.8430) but we could get close if German prelim CPI y/y comes in below expectations tomorrow. With hikes on the horizon for the Eurozone a poor read could certainly pressure the ECB to tighten policy further at their Sep 15 meeting, this in turn won’t be inspiring for the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.8331
Resistance: 1.8470
Support: 1.8150
Last Weeks Range: 1.8151 – 1.8460

Early week moves in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5465 (1.8300) from the weekly at 0.5480 (1.8250) had the kiwi immediately on the backfoot in a thin week of economic Data. I’m not sure we will see a retest of the low at 0.5425 (1.8430) but we could get close if German prelim CPI y/y comes in below expectations tomorrow. With hikes on the horizon for the Eurozone a poor read could certainly pressure the ECB to tighten policy further at their Sep 15 meeting, this in turn won’t be inspiring for the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.5455
Resistance: 0.5510
Support: 0.5415
Last Weeks Range: 0.5417 – 0.5509

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 2.1345
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.0900
Last Weeks Range: 2.1228 – 2.1585

A slow start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross has seen the GBP push up slightly on the kiwi to 2.1320 (0.4690) in thin UK holiday trading. The GBP will be targeting last week’s low at 0.4635 (1.1570) with fundamentals favouring further declines in the pair. It’s a very light economic calendar this week with just ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday expected to release poorly. It’s tough going for GBP buyers at current levels, we suggest to look for spikes in an otherwise bear currency.

Current Level: 0.4685
Resistance: 0.4785
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4632 – 0.4710

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 1.0872
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0750
Last Weeks Range: 1.0778 – 1.08712

Bouncing around usual ranges the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) traded into Tuesday at 0.9190 (1.0880). Breaking below 0.9200 (1.0870) support the Aussie now eyes 0.9175 (1.0900) the late July low. Australian Retail Sales came in hot at 0.5% in July up from June’s -0.8% allowing the AUD to perk up. Looking ahead we have Australian CPI m/m which is forecast to print lower than June’s 5.4% at 5.2%, anything higher than 5.4% will be dangerous for the NZD. Buyers of AUD should consider here.

Current Level: 0.9189
Resistance: 0.9300
Support: 0.9150
Last Weeks Range: 0.9198 – 0.9278

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) settled around 0.5900 against the US Dollar (USD) late last week where it still sits into Tuesday trading. Risk assets were boosted slightly by rises in equity indices temporarily, amid weakened global demand and a backdrop of poor sentiment. The kiwi sits dangerously close to the precipice with no real support below 0.5850, all the way to 0.5550 zones. Fed talk at the Jackson Hole event confirmed nothing we didn’t already know with Fed chair Powell keeping his cards close to his chest reiterating he was non-committal. While the Fed has pencilled in one more hike to 5.75% it remains far from certain whether they will actually do it. Non-Farm Payroll releases Friday.

Current Level: 0.5911
Resistance: 0.6100
Support: 0.5880
Last Weeks Range: 0.5884 – 0.5984

Market Overview:

Key Points:

• The Jackson Hole Symposium gets under way in Wyoming attended by central bankers and financial participants around the world.
• Canadian Retail Sales edged up 0.1% in June from 0.0% expectations confirming a rebound in activity.
• Eurozone services data comes in weak easing concerns over whether the ECB may raise rates in September. ECB’s governing council Nagal says the labour market is strong and it’s too early to consider halting hikes. He also said he doesn’t expect a recession in the near future.
• Japanese CPI for August comes in at 2.9% after 2.0% was predicted.
• High US inflation has put pressure on the Fed with current policy, this in turn is increasing pressure on US industry with a high USD currency. These companies who rely on US profits and foreign receipts are struggling.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) is the strongest currency this week with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performer.