EUR

New Zealand Unemployment rose from 3.6% to 3.9%, the highest level in 2 years while wage growth slowed. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rising to 0.5915 against the US Dollar (USD) boosted also by a fresh wave of “risk on” and poor US data. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 5.50% from the 22-year high signalling rates would remain high well into 2024 in order to hold inflation under control. Markets look to have priced in a peak of 5.50%. The Fed will never rule out hiking further but for now it’s all about “hot” economic data dependent. US Non-Farm Payroll and US Unemployment releases tonight expect more swings and possible upside in the NZD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5891

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5787- 0.5915

New Zealand Unemployment data pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9210 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) midweek but it wasn’t able to hold this area falling back to 0.9140 Thursday. The risk rally we have seen over the week has been more Aussie supportive, with decent rallies in commodities and Iron Ore firming above 124.50. Next week’s RBA cash rate will be key to direction either way, the central bank expected to hike 25 points from 4.10% to help rein in inflation currently sitting at 5.6% y/y. Support at 0.9145 may not hold.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9162 AUDNZD 1.0902

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9139- 0.9231 AUDNZD 1.0842- 1.0941

The Australian Dollar fell through key 0.6000 last week after reaching 0.6040 (1.6555) against the Euro (EUR) on its way to clocking a low of 0.5944 1.6822 as market uncertainty in Gaza hit the wires. This week’s moves in the cross have been benign, trading around 0.6020 (1.6620) areas. ECB’s Muller says a deep recession won’t happen in the Eurozone as inflation is predicted to slow further over the coming months. Inflation is far from the ECB’s target of around 2.0% but recent interest hikes have hit their mark and are having an economic effect. The cross resides in a bull trend but 0.6035 (1.6570) will be hard to breach.

Current Level: 1.6663
Resistance: 1.6850
Support: 1.6590
Last Weeks Range: 1.6557 – 1.6843

The Australian Dollar fell through key 0.6000 last week after reaching 0.6040 (1.6555) against the Euro (EUR) on its way to clocking a low of 0.5944 1.6822 as market uncertainty in Gaza hit the wires. This week’s moves in the cross have been benign, trading around 0.6020 (1.6620) areas. ECB’s Muller says a deep recession won’t happen in the Eurozone as inflation is predicted to slow further over the coming months. Inflation is far from the ECB’s target of around 2.0% but recent interest hikes have hit their mark and are having an economic effect. The cross resides in a bull trend but 0.6035 (1.6570) will be hard to breach.

Current Level: 0.6001
Resistance: 0.6030
Support: 0.5935
Last Weeks Range: 0.5937 – 0.6843

Australian Retail Sales boosted the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday against the British Pound (GBP), the cross reaching 0.5260 (1.9020). Early Tuesday the Aussie had pulled back to 0.5240 (1.9090) in what could only be described as weird. With momentum in hand to extend the move, possibly to retest a prior low at 0.5300 (1.8870) in our book, it’s gone the other way. With most signals pointing to a hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meet on 7 November and a hold by the Bank of England (BoE) later this week it’s a little strange for investors and positioning. Adding to the “risk on” tone we also have geopolitical tensions easing in Gaza. We favour a move back to 0.5280 (1.8940) this week.

Current Level: 1.9102
Resistance: 1.9350
Support: 1.8950
Last Weeks Range: 1.9018 – 1.9339

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) opened the week pretty much at the same place it did a week earlier around 0.5510 (1.8160) albeit a little water under the bridge. We don’t expect too much upside this week for the kiwi after recent weeks of poor performance, the pair still trending lower from the October 10 high of 0.5714 (1.7500) as it targets the April 2020 low at 0.5440 (1.8380). Risk factors have improved over the last few hours as the Gaza ground offensive started, the positive is that fighting is contained within the Gaza strip and has not worsened into a US/Iran war.

Current Level: 1.8178
Resistance: 1.8380
Support: 1.8000
Last Weeks Range: 1.8050 – 1.8263

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) opened the week pretty much at the same place it did a week earlier around 0.5510 (1.8160) albeit a little water under the bridge. We don’t expect too much upside this week for the kiwi after recent weeks of poor performance, the pair still trending lower from the October 10 high of 0.5714 (1.7500) as it targets the April 2020 low at 0.5440 (1.8380). Risk factors have improved over the last few hours as the Gaza ground offensive started, the positive is that fighting is contained within the Gaza strip and has not worsened into a US/Iran war.

Current Level: 0.5501
Support: 0.5440
Resistance: 0.5555
Last week’s range: 0.5475 – 0.5540

UK mortgage approvals printed lower than expectation yesterday at 43,000 vs forecast of 44,000 dipping from August’s 45447 number. The British Pound (GBP) holding up Monday in the face of decent “risk on” moves. The kiwi underperformed with price easing back to 0.4800 (2.0840). Baffling really as the kiwi has bounced higher off recent lows against other crosses but has not reacted the same in the NZD/GBP. Equity markets were solid overnight as geopolitical fears in Gaza eased, the NZD continues to be sold. This week’s Bank of England (BoE) cash rate holds our attention with most punters fairly sure the BoE will keep rates unchanged at 5.25%.

Current Level: 2.0828
Resistance: 2.10
Support: 2.0730
Last Weeks Range: 2.0733- 2.0964

UK mortgage approvals printed lower than expectation yesterday at 43,000 vs forecast of 44,000 dipping from August’s 45447 number. The British Pound (GBP) holding up Monday in the face of decent “risk on” moves. The kiwi underperformed with price easing back to 0.4800 (2.0840). Baffling really as the kiwi has bounced higher off recent lows against other crosses but has not reacted the same in the NZD/GBP. Equity markets were solid overnight as geopolitical fears in Gaza eased, the NZD continues to be sold. This week’s Bank of England (BoE) cash rate holds our attention with most punters fairly sure the BoE will keep rates unchanged at 5.25%.

Current Level: 0.4801
Resistance: 0.4825
Support: 0.4760
Last Weeks Range: 0.4770 – 0.4823

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to outperform the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the cross reaching 0.9150 (1.0930) earlier this morning as it extends downside moves from mid October’s 0.9425 (1.0610). The cross looks to be teetering around decent support at 0.9140 (1.0940). The Aussie was well supported post a bumper Retail Sales release and talk of central bank divergence with next week’s RBA eyeing a hike. The key data standout this week is NZ employment data with predictions the unemployment rate could rise to 3.9% from 3.6%. The rundown to current levels looks oversold watch for a reversal.

Current Level: 1.0904
Resistance: 1.0930
Support: 1.0830
Last Weeks Range: 1.0816 – 1.0913