EUR

It’s been a quiet few weeks of economic releases in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with the first significant piece of economic data to be released since mid-December being next week’s NZ CPI and ECB cash rates reports. The kiwi made gains through November to year end coming from 0.5470 (1.8280) to reach 0.5755 (1.7380) just prior to Christmas before giving back the advantage. We have certainly seen a pullback of risk in 2024 the Euro reaching 1.7700 (0.5650) overnight.

Current Level: 0.5657
Support: 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5667 – 0.5718

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.4990 (2.005) against the British Pound late in 2023 the May high before falling back sharply as 2024 got underway. Boosted by risk off flows the Pound has extended gains to 0.4860 (2.0560) this morning. UK GDP has fallen by 0.2% in the 3 months to November compared with the 3 months to August sending the GBP broadly lower following the news. Although the November figure came in better than forecast the past 3 months have revealed a larger than anticipated economic contraction. Governor Bailey speaks later today prior to tomorrow’s CPI y/y data- predicted to print at 3.8% down from 3.9% in November. Trend is firmly still with the GBP.

Current Level: 2.0550
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.000
Last Weeks Range: 2.0322- 2.0492

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.4990 (2.005) against the British Pound late in 2023 the May high before falling back sharply as 2024 got underway. Boosted by risk off flows the Pound has extended gains to 0.4860 (2.0560) this morning. UK GDP has fallen by 0.2% in the 3 months to November compared with the 3 months to August sending the GBP broadly lower following the news. Although the November figure came in better than forecast the past 3 months have revealed a larger than anticipated economic contraction. Governor Bailey speaks later today prior to tomorrow’s CPI y/y data- predicted to print at 3.8% down from 3.9% in November. Trend is firmly still with the GBP.

Current Level: 0.4866
Resistance: 0.5000
Support: 0.4785
Last Weeks Range: 0.4880 – 0.4920

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came into 2024 around 0.9275 (1.0780) after bouncing around this area for most of December. The cross reached 0.9235 (1.0830) before going on a run to 0.9345 (1.0700) at the close of last week. With talk of further expectations the RBNZ will cut interest rates earlier than later the kiwi dropped back towards 0.9295 (1.0760) this morning. Last week’s Aussie CPI y/y report confirmed a reasonable drop to 4.3% from 4.9%. It’s too early to say the RBA may cut rates earlier than planned but it’s a step in the right direction. Fundamentals suggest we could see prices in the pair fall back to retest support at 0.9260 (1.0800).

Current Level: 1.0740
Resistance: 1.0940
Support: 1.0660
Last Weeks Range: 1.0698 – 1.0771

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came into 2024 around 0.9275 (1.0780) after bouncing around this area for most of December. The cross reached 0.9235 (1.0830) before going on a run to 0.9345 (1.0700) at the close of last week. With talk of further expectations the RBNZ will cut interest rates earlier than later the kiwi dropped back towards 0.9295 (1.0760) this morning. Last week’s Aussie CPI y/y report confirmed a reasonable drop to 4.3% from 4.9%. It’s too early to say the RBA may cut rates earlier than planned but it’s a step in the right direction. Fundamentals suggest we could see prices in the pair fall back to retest support at 0.9260 (1.0800).

Current Level: 0.9303
Resistance: 0.9380
Support: 0.9140
Last Weeks Range: 0.9284 – 0.9347

Thin Christmas and New Year markets along with US Holiday trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross meant we haven’t had big moves of late. The pair mostly pivoted around the 0.6250 levels through to Monday when we saw a slide in the kiwi down to 0.6180 mostly based on central bank divergence. Global themes have also started to weigh on the NZD with Gaza conflicts and energy prices not to mention a poor Chinese growth read. Interest rate cuts are now starting to come into conversation more with predictions the RBNZ may have 100 points priced in for 2024.The New Zealand economy is expected to cool further in the first half of 2024. Thursday’s US Retail Sales for December should be decent.

Current level: 0.6169
Support: 0.6170
Resistance: 0.6360
Last week’s range: 0.6194-0.6276

Finance minister Nicola Willis delivered her mini budget over the week finding 7.5B of savings as the new National Govt cuts back on several Labour led initiatives. There was no real shift to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) post the release however the kiwi posted new highs against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6295 a late July high. If we look back over 2023 the kiwi has underperformed for most of the year to mid-October when it pulled back most of the losses over 2023. The cross started the year circa 0.6330 so we are not far off this. US UoM Consumer Sentiment prints in the morning and should reflect a similar positive result to earlier week Consumer Board confidence. Markets over the Xmas/NY dates will be thin and volatile; we expect reasonable shifts in the cross. Leaving orders with us is the way to go if you are targeting a specific level.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6287

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6187- 0.6297

Over 2023 the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has traded in a range between 0.9100 and 0.9430 for over 90% of the time. We have not seen any big runs one way or another as the NZD/AUD remained converged for most of the year. The pair started the year around 0.9320 (1.0730) and trades today at 0.9250 (1.0810). The RBA minutes signalled the central bank considered raising rates before deciding to stand down saying they would wait for incoming data such as inflation and employment data to make further calls. The next data release is Australian CPI y/y on the 10th of Jan. Until then we could see the Aussie make further gains to retest 0.9175 (1.0900)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9244 AUDNZD 1.0806

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9244- 0.9300 AUDNZD 1.0752- 1.0817

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week out around 0.9270 (1.0790) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) extending losses throughout the week from 0.9375 (1.0670) numbers. Data out in the form of NZ GDP q/q ending September wasn’t so NZD supportive after printing at -0.3% vs 0.2% expectations lowering the kiwi. Fears of another NZ recession have crept back into conversations with questions being raised on whether the RBNZ have raised too far with 4th quarter growth predictions to worsen. The Aussie was further boosted by Aussie unemployment numbers jumping to 3.9% a June 2022 high despite jobs numbers coming in hot at 61,500 compared to 11,000 predictions. What this means is the central bank will keep rates at 4.25% for longer with the caveat being incoming jobs reports and inflation forecasts. On the chart we saw a small pullback to 0.9295 (1.0760) in the kiwi to start the week but this was short lived with price back around 0.9260 (1.0800) this morning. With no proper data on the docket this week we should see the cross bounce around the 0.9200 (1.0870) – 0.9300 (1.0750) zone.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9262 AUDNZD 1.0784

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9260- 0.9295 AUDNZD 1.0758- 1.0798

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shifted higher late in the week against the US Dollar (USD) pushing into the 0.62’s after a massive re-think in Fed sentiment. Price reached 0.6250 as the Fed delivered their unchanged cash rate announcement. The Fed said they would keep rates as they are until mid-2024 when they expect to cut rates around June, possibly twice more before the end of the year. Earlier US CPI printed at 3.1% y/y bang on forecast throwing doubt into whether the Fed would price in cuts. NZ GDP q/q released at -0.3% down on 0.2% expectations, the economy contracting more than markets were forecasting and stoking fears of another recession is on the cards. Have the RBNZ raised rates too much in efforts to aggressively bring down inflation which is still 5.6%. It’s now a strong likelihood the central bank will consider cutting sooner over later in 2024. Through most of 2023 the kiwi has been mostly bearish, we believe we may have seen a shift to a bullish tone over November with pricing reversing off mid 57’s, strong support is now 0.6000.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6211

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6187- 0.6250